Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Australian dollar against the US dollar in the second half of 2025 is neutral to positive [2] Core Viewpoints - The Australian dollar has been weak since the beginning of this year but has seen a new upward trend since April 9 [1]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in this week's meeting, and inflation remains stubborn [2]. - Good news in global trade, such as the Sino - US decision to significantly reduce tariffs, is beneficial to commodity currencies [2]. - If Sino - US trade relations continue to improve, it will be favorable for the currencies of countries with close trade relations with China, like the Australian dollar [2]. Section Summaries Australian Dollar Performance - In Q1, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fluctuated between 0.62 and 0.64, lacking upward momentum compared to European currencies [1]. - Since April 9, it rebounded from a low of 0.5915, rose for 7 consecutive days, broke through and stabilized above the 50 - day moving average, reached 0.6515 on May 7, and then dropped to 0.642 [1]. Central Bank Policy and Inflation - The Reserve Bank of Australia started cutting interest rates in February, paused in April, and cut rates by 0.25 percentage points this week, bringing the cash rate to 3.85% [2]. - Australia's Q1 consumer price index rose 2.4% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.3% [2]. Trade News - China and the US decided to significantly reduce tariffs for 90 days after bilateral talks in Switzerland, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China cutting tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary said Sino - US negotiators may hold another meeting in a few weeks to discuss a more detailed trade agreement [2]. Outlook for the Australian Dollar - In the second half of 2025, if Sino - US trade relations improve, it will benefit the Australian dollar, with a support level of 0.61 and a resistance level of around 0.69 [2]. - In the short term, if the Australian dollar breaks through the 250 - day moving average of about 0.649, the next high is expected to be around 0.66 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum focused on the release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025," discussing the path and strategies for achieving a strong financial nation and promoting high-quality economic development in China [1][5]. Summary by Sections Overview of the Report - The "China Financial Policy Report" project was established by Tsinghua Wudaokou Financial School and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, aiming to reflect major themes and policy dynamics in China's financial sector over the past 15 years [3]. - The report has been published annually in both Chinese and English, gaining recognition for its comprehensive introduction to China's financial policy [3]. Key Themes of the 2025 Report - The report's theme is "Continuously Deepening Financial System Reform and Accelerating the Construction of a Modern Financial System with Chinese Characteristics," analyzing challenges and opportunities in China's financial development [5][6]. - It highlights the need for reform in the financial system to enhance resilience amid internal and external pressures, including global economic fluctuations and domestic demand instability [6]. Achievements in 2024 - The report reviews significant achievements in establishing a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a well-structured financial market, and a collaborative financial institution system [7][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified and specialized financial product and service system, as well as the development of secure and efficient financial infrastructure [8]. Future Directions - Future reforms should focus on optimizing financial resource allocation, enhancing the central bank's system, and strengthening financial stability guarantees [8]. - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a balance between development and security while deepening reforms to support China's modernization [8]. Roundtable Discussions - Discussions included the impact of tariff wars on China's economic and financial development, emphasizing the need for structural adjustments in response to external pressures [10][11]. - The importance of enhancing the efficiency of cross-border payment systems for the renminbi was highlighted, along with the need for unified approaches to stabilize the currency system [12]. - Local financial strategies were discussed as crucial for supporting national financial goals, focusing on emerging industries, green finance, and digital finance [16].

Group 1 - Recent developments in US-China trade relations have led to increased anxiety among American companies regarding tariff policies, prompting them to urgently contact Chinese suppliers for updates [1][4][6] - In June alone, $6.5 trillion of US national debt is set to mature, and Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," indicating a loss of top-tier credit status [1][13][18] Group 2 - The reliance of American manufacturing on Chinese supply chains is significant, with approximately 18% of imported goods coming from China, particularly in critical sectors like machinery, electronics, and chemicals [6][8][32] - The ongoing tariff fluctuations could severely impact US companies, leading to increased costs and potential production halts, which would destabilize the entire industry chain [9][11][30] Group 3 - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating has caused global market fluctuations, with the 30-year US Treasury yield surpassing 5%, reflecting investor concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policies [15][16][18] - The downgrade will increase the financing costs for the US government, with estimates suggesting that a 0.1% rise in interest rates on $6.5 trillion of maturing debt could result in an additional $6.5 billion in annual interest payments [18][21] Group 4 - The ability of the US to honor its trade commitments with China is under scrutiny, especially given the historical context of inconsistent trade policies and the current economic pressures [2][23][24] - The US's growing debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, and its continued dependence on Chinese supply chains complicate its ability to navigate trade negotiations effectively [30][32]

5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。 来源：澎湃新闻 责编：刘珺宇 校对：吕久彪 有记者提问，我们关注到联合国在日前发布的报告中指出，受到关税战等影响，2025年全球经济增速预计将 放缓至2.4%，比1月预测值低0.4个百分点。同时，中方也发布了4月份国民经济的运行情况。请问发言人， 如何看待关税等外部因素对中国经济的影响？是否担心中国经济会受到冲击？ 毛宁表示，国务院新闻办公室19日举行了新闻发布会，介绍了4月份国民经济运行的情况，我注意到国际媒体 纷纷用"超预期""有韧性"来评价中国经济的表现。特别值得一提的是，在面临高关税壁垒的情况下，中国外 贸保持平稳增长。今年前4个月货物进出口总额同比增长2.4%，其中出口增长7.5%，显示出过硬的国际竞争 力。 同时中国不断扩大开放，让外企在华的发展空间更大、预期更稳。这些情况都充分说明，中国完全有能力、有 条件、有底气应对各种风险挑战。 百万用户都在看 最新！特朗普，签了！ 突传利空！刚刚，暴跌超66%！ 突发！下调25个基点，直线跳水！ 突然！特朗普，重大宣布！ 利好来袭！芯片、特朗普，突传重磅！ 巴基斯坦，重大突发！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for a fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises in Europe, especially in light of new fees imposed on small packages entering the EU [2] - China expresses strong opposition to the unilateral sanctions imposed by the EU and the UK on Chinese companies, asserting that such actions lack international legal basis and undermine legitimate business interests [3] - Despite external challenges such as tariff wars, China's foreign trade has shown resilience, with a 2.4% year-on-year increase in total goods import and export volume in the first four months of the year, and a 7.5% increase in exports [4] Group 2 - The Chinese government believes it has the capability, conditions, and confidence to handle various risks and challenges posed by external factors, as evidenced by the positive performance of its economy despite high tariff barriers [4]

外交部：希望欧方为中国企业提供公平透明非歧视的营商环境 有记者问：欧盟昨天表示，将对进入欧盟的小包裹收取手续费，这些小包裹大部分来自中国。对此，中方有何 评论？ 5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。 综合自：央视新闻、澎湃新闻 责编：万健祎 校对：苏焕文 版权声明 毛宁表示，具体的问题建议你向中方的主管部门了解，我可以告诉你的是，中方认为营造一个开放包容的贸易 环境符合各方的共同利益，我们希望欧方能够恪守开放的承诺，为中国企业提供公平透明非歧视的营商环境， 为中欧经贸合作创造有利条件。 外交部：坚决反对欧方无理制裁中国企业 5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者问：欧盟和英国20日分别宣布对俄罗斯实施新一轮制 裁，重点针对俄罗斯能源、军事和金融等领域，这次中国和阿联酋公司也被列入制裁名单，外交部对此有何评 论？ 毛宁表示，中方一贯反对没有国际法依据、未经联合国安理会授权的单边制裁，对欧方无理制裁中国企业表示 强烈不满，坚决反对。在乌克兰危机问题上，中方始终致力于劝和促谈，从未向冲突方提供致命性武器，严格 管控军民两用物项出口。当前包括欧美在内的大多数国家都在同俄罗斯开展贸易，中俄企业的正常 ...

是否担心关税战等外部因素冲击中国经济？外交部：有能力、有条件、有底气 5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问，我们关注到联合国在日前发布的报告中指 出，受到关税战等影响，2025年全球经济增速预计将放缓至2.4%，比1月预测值低0.4个百分点。同时， 中方也发布了4月份国民经济的运行情况。请问发言人，如何看待关税等外部因素对中国经济的影响？ 是否担心中国经济会受到冲击？ 同时中国不断扩大开放，让外企在华的发展空间更大、预期更稳。这些情况都充分说明，中国完全有能 力、有条件、有底气应对各种风险挑战。 毛宁表示，国务院新闻办公室19日举行了新闻发布会，介绍了4月份国民经济运行的情况，我注意到国 际媒体纷纷用"超预期""有韧性"来评价中国经济的表现。特别值得一提的是，在面临高关税壁垒的情况 下，中国外贸保持平稳增长。今年前4个月货物进出口总额同比增长2.4%，其中出口增长7.5%，显示出 过硬的国际竞争力。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - April economic data declined compared to March but remained resilient under the tariff war. Social retail sales were up 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 up 8% year-on-year. The China-US joint statement and subsequent policies are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - The internal policy push is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded by about 4%. However, ROE is still at the bottoming stage. These measures will help companies repair their balance sheets and lift the stock market valuation [1]. - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts up 0.03%, the 5-year down 0.04%, and the 2-year down 0.03%. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and other factors have changed the bond market environment, and the short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: April economic data was resilient, and policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the entry of long-term funds into the market, are expected to support the stock market. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the stock market valuation is expected to rise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures had mixed performance, and the bond market environment has changed due to policy and economic factors. The short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: All major contracts of stock index futures declined, with IM down 1.56%, IC down 1.31%, IF down 0.89%, and IH down 0.53% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: All major stock indexes declined, with the CSI 1000 down 1.68%, the CSI 500 down 1.45%, the SSE 50 down 0.49%, and the SSE 300 down 0.91% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year and 10-year contracts rose, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell. The 30-year contract was up 0.15%, and the 10-year contract was up 0.02% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds showed different trends [3]. 3.3 Market News - In May, the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts and their basis [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of various currency exchange rates, including the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB and other currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

为什么这么说呢？因为在中美发表的联合声明里，双方这次并没有彻底解决关税争端，而是让关税战退回了起点，也就是4月2日，特朗普宣布对华加税 34%，中方第一次对等反制的水平。 有所不同的是，这回双方同意把首轮加税给拆分开，只保留10%的现有税率，剩余24%的关税暂缓90天执行。 在瑞士日内瓦完成首轮经贸谈判之后，中美持续一个多月的关税战，终于迎来了降温的信号，这无疑让世界各国都松了口气，但美国看起来依旧贼心不死。 所以实际上，美国对华的降税额度目前已经达到了115%，只是有一部分还不稳定。至于美方为何选择暂缓这24%，而不是直接取消，自然是为了给自己挽 尊。 特朗普对华降税 打响关税战的是他们，求着要谈判的也是他们，之前白宫放出消息，预计要把对华关税降到50%到60%之间，以求跟中方达成协议。 然而，中方的要求一直是取消所有加税措施，如果美方依旧维持高关税，很难打动中方。 所以，美方把加税额度降到10%，再保留24%的待定关税，加上原本对一些中国产品征收的20%关税，算起来也达到了54%，给了美方留下了一些颜面。 对于这种小把戏，中方自然一清二楚，但大国谈判想要一蹴而就，也没那么容易，当下中美关税战的水平能回到起 ...

5月20日，"临甲7号沙龙"专题吹风会上，外交部亚洲司副司长梁建军表示，美国的对外贸易额仅占全球 贸易额的13%，发动关税战等于把自己孤立于世界之外，那其余的87%可以照样做，没了美国世界照样 转，太阳照样从东方升起。我们有足够的耐心和定力，也有充分的资源和手段，我们不会在根本原则上 动摇，也不会在核心利益上退让。（中国新闻网） ...