Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated cautiously bullish [13] Core Viewpoints - For RU and NR, the basis of RU is weakening, and the basis of NR fluctuates slightly, indicating weak spot price follow - up, especially with the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season, suggesting poor demand for whole - latex. The price difference between RU and NR has slightly widened recently. The fundamentals change little. With domestic rubber - cutting approaching, raw material prices depend on the Thai production area. The cost support for rubber is strong, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, and inventory accumulation will continue in China. - For BR, the supply is relatively stable, and the upstream production profit has slightly improved. During the New Year's Day holiday in China, the downstream tire operating rate is expected to decline. The supply - demand drive is insufficient, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation pressure. However, with the strong raw material price of butadiene, BR is expected to maintain a strong operation under cost support [13] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract is 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,875 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber is 1,805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Natural Rubber Import - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption Forecast - The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November will drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption will drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to drop 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2] Tire Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Some domestic tire enterprises are under production and sales pressure. During the "New Year's Day" holiday in 2026, some sample enterprises plan to have maintenance for 3 - 5 days. The number of all - steel tire enterprises for maintenance is more than that of semi - steel tire enterprises. Some enterprises' maintenance plans are still undetermined, and most enterprises have no maintenance plans [2] Enterprise Production Plan in January 2026 - In January 2026, enterprises will enter the pre - holiday inventory preparation stage. After a short - term maintenance, production will gradually resume. Enterprises will maintain normal production in the first half of the month to reserve inventory. In the second half of the month, after the inventory replenishment is completed, some enterprises may start the "Spring Festival" holiday around the tenth day of the twelfth lunar month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [3] Heavy - truck Sales - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales in the heavy - truck market this year [4] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 970 yuan/ton (+ 5), the NR basis was 500.00 yuan/ton (- 22.00). The price of whole - latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,875 US dollars/ton (+ 0). The spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,200 yuan/ton (- 100) [6][7] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.15 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [8] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.69% (- 1.92%), and that of semi - steel tires was 70.36% (+ 0.35%) [9] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 524,846 tons (+ 9,619), the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+ 29,327), the RU futures inventory was 93,930 tons (+ 6,770), and the NR futures inventory was 57,960 tons (- 1,008) [9] Cis - polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 165 yuan/ton (+ 35), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,042 yuan/ton (- 127) [10] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 76.77% (+ 0.51%) [11] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 5,690 tons (- 720), and the enterprise inventory was 28,850 tons (+ 1,250) [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - **Positive (Trend Intensity: 1)**: Paper pulp, Methanol [31][42] - **Negative (Trend Intensity: -1)**: Synthetic rubber, Caustic soda [17][27] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Para - xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Urea, Styrene, Soda ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Staple fiber, Bottle chips, Offset printing paper, Pure benzene [2][12][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides daily market analyses and outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and key influencing factors [2][9][10] - **Specific Commodities**: - **PX and PTA**: Expected to be in a high - level consolidation market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is rising with marginal decline in polyester demand [9][10] - **MEG**: Port inventory is accumulating again, with a weak trend. However, there is a marginal improvement in the inventory build - up expectation [11] - **Rubber**: In a wide - range consolidation state, affected by tire enterprise production plans [12] - **Synthetic rubber**: Prices are falling from a high level, with weakening fundamentals and following the decline of the commodity index [15][17] - **LLDPE**: Upstream inventory is being transferred, with stable basis. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [18] - **PP**: The market is expected to consolidate steadily in January due to multiple PDH unit maintenance plans, but the overall fundamentals are weak [21][22] - **Caustic soda**: High - production and high - inventory situation persists, with attention on January delivery pressure [26] - **Paper pulp**: The market is expected to be consolidating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to market capital trends and inventory changes [31][32] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and market trading has improved locally [35] - **Methanol**: Short - term strength is expected, but there is a risk of negative feedback from MTO [41][42] - **Urea**: The oscillation center is moving up, supported by the expected peak agricultural demand season in 2026, but price elasticity is limited [43][46] - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation is expected. The processing fee is expected to remain at a medium - high level, but there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream [47][49] - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change, with weak and stable oscillations [52] - **LPG**: The January CP is released at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [54] - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with an expectation of a rebound from the decline [54] - **PVC**: The market is in a weak - level consolidation, with limited rebound space due to high - production and high - inventory structure [62] - **Fuel oil**: The market is in a narrow - range adjustment, and short - term strength may be maintained [65] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [65] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market is in a high - level consolidation, with different investment strategies for different contracts [67][77] - **Staple fiber and Bottle chips**: Both are in a high - level consolidation state [81] - **Offset printing paper**: It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach, with stable market prices [84] - **Pure benzene**: The market is expected to be in short - term oscillation. The price is expected to show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center in 2026 [48][89] 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The price is in a high - level consolidation. Supply is increasing as some domestic and overseas plants are restarting or maintaining high - load operation. Demand is decreasing as PTA plant operating rates decline. Polyester has high operating rates but more maintenance is expected in 1 - 2 months [9] - **PTA**: In a high - level consolidation. Supply is rising as some plants are restarting. Polyester demand is marginally declining but still at a relatively high level. PTA is in a de - stocking state, which is beneficial for the spread and basis [10] - **MEG**: Port inventory is accumulating. Supply operating rates are stable, and demand is decreasing as polyester operating rates decline. There is a marginal improvement in the inventory build - up expectation due to potential load - reduction of some domestic and overseas plants [11] Rubber - The market is in a wide - range consolidation. The futures price has small fluctuations, and the spot price is relatively stable. Some domestic tire enterprises plan to conduct maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday to relieve inventory pressure [12][14] Synthetic Rubber - The price is falling from a high level. The futures price has declined, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and it is expected to be in a weak - level consolidation [15][17] LLDPE - Upstream inventory is being transferred to the middle - stream, and the basis is stable. The raw material price has rebounded, and the profit of the PE process has been compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure due to high production capacity and weakening demand [18][19] PP - The market is expected to consolidate steadily in January due to multiple PDH unit maintenance plans. The cost side is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH units [21][22] Caustic Soda - It remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The demand is weak due to the over - supply of alumina and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand. The supply pressure is large as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Attention should be paid to the January delivery pressure [26] Paper Pulp - The market is expected to be consolidating with an upward bias. The futures price has shown an upward trend, and the spot price is relatively stable. The downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement, and attention should be paid to capital trends, inventory digestion of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and port inventory de - stocking [31][33] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and market trading has improved locally. The futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened. Some regions have seen price increases due to capacity reduction [35] Methanol - Short - term strength is expected. The futures price has rebounded, and the spot price has also increased. The market is trading on the strong expectation for the first quarter of 2026, but there is a risk of negative feedback from MTO if the price continues to rise [41][42] Urea - The oscillation center is moving up. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable. The market has strong expectations for the peak agricultural demand season in 2026, but price elasticity is limited due to policy suppression [43][46] Styrene - Short - term oscillation is expected. The futures price has declined slightly. The supply is relatively tight, and the processing fee is expected to remain at a medium - high level. However, there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 is not as expected [47][50] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change, with weak and stable oscillations. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened. The enterprise production is slightly adjusted, and the downstream demand is general [52] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The January CP is released at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase. The futures price has risen, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. Attention should be paid to the impact of PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][59] - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with an expectation of a rebound from the decline. The futures price has shown certain fluctuations, and the basis has changed [54] PVC - The market is in a weak - level consolidation. The spot price has continued to rise, but the supply - demand improvement is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the large - scale reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [62][63] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The market is in a narrow - range adjustment, and short - term strength may be maintained. The futures price has shown small fluctuations, and the spot price has increased slightly [65] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable. The futures price has declined slightly [65] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The market is in a high - level consolidation. For the 2602 contract, the key issues are the freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, attention should be paid to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza, and short - selling on rallies in the medium - long term [67][77][79] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: The market is in a high - level consolidation. The futures price is oscillating strongly, and the spot price is stable. The sales are generally average, and the downstream purchases are on a demand - basis [81] - **Bottle Chips**: The market is in a high - level consolidation. The upstream raw material price is oscillating and rising, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere has rebounded slightly [81][82] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot price is stable, and the market trading is general. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, and the dealer and downstream attitudes are cautious [84][85][87] Pure Benzene - The market is expected to be in short - term oscillation. The futures price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In 2026, the price is expected to show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [48][89][90]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy, suggesting to wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - side long position on dips [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2602 in the afternoon session was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 118,184 lots, down 23,149 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 243,652 lots, up 6,073 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton, East China 3,000 - 3,120 yuan/ton, and South China 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable [1][2] - Although the overall rigid demand for asphalt is poor, the supply side is supported by tight local asphalt spot circulation. The pricing of the futures market has shifted to the southern region. With the reduction of supply from some refineries, market sentiment has improved compared to last week, showing a rebound expectation. However, the potential risk of supply interruption of Venezuelan crude oil is an upward risk. The market is intertwined with long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound needs a clearer signal [1] Group 3: Chart Information Summary - The report includes charts on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the month - to - month spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, the weekly asphalt production in China and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), and the consumption and inventory of asphalt [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 市场交投相对清淡 铅价预计维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-30，LME铅现货升水为-43.70美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元/ 吨至17300元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17300元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17325元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-30，沪铅主力合约开于17465元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化15元/吨，全天交易日 成交69782手，较前一交易日变化-14987手，全天交易日持仓53891手，手较前一交易日变化-584手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17635元/吨，最低点达到17 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Weak and volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4] - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are fluctuating. The trading sentiment of glass and soda ash has been boosted, leading to a rebound in their futures markets. The alloy futures of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have also rebounded, while the spot prices have made minor adjustments [1][3] - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant, with high inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation of soda ash has eased, but there are concerns about new production projects and glass cold - repair. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are poor with high inventory, and the fundamentals of ferrosilicon have improved compared to before [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures fluctuated upwards with active trading, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Soda ash futures also rose, with an increase in spot prices but poor futures - spot trading and mainly rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is large. Although some production lines are being cold - repaired, the reduction in production is insufficient compared to the decline in demand, and there is a risk of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has eased, with reduced production and inventory. However, new production projects and potential glass cold - repairs need to be monitored [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to be weak and volatile, while soda ash is expected to be volatile [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Silicomanganese futures rebounded, and the spot market was strong. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton. Ferrosilicon futures continued to rebound, and the spot prices were slightly adjusted. The 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese are poor, with production exceeding demand and a large increase in inventory. Although steel mill复产 after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand, the high inventory pressure limits price increases. The low port inventory of manganese ore provides price support. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have improved, with enterprises reducing production and factory inventory declining. After steel mill复产, the rigid demand is expected to improve, and the price will be volatile [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be volatile [4]

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：一方面，供应压力持续显现，截至第 52 周末，国内油厂豆粕库存已增至 117.6 万吨，环比增 加 7.72%，处于历史同期高位。另一方面，成本端存在支撑，且国内油厂压榨利润不佳，挺价意愿较强。需 求端则表现平淡，尽管生猪存栏高位，但饲料配方中豆粕添加比例下降，且节前备货需求温和，企业多按 需采购，难以拉动价格。综合来看，豆粕市场短期受高库存和弱需求压制，上行乏力，但下方有进口成本 及油厂挺价支撑，下跌空间有限，短期豆类期价维持区间震荡走势。 专业研究·创造价值 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 30, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed flat with a "ten - day consecutive gain", closing at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It fluctuated and consolidated on December 30, closing at 4651.28, a环比 increase of 11.91 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: The coke weighted index had a narrow - range shock, with a closing price of 1710.2, a环比 increase of 9.7; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1113.9 yuan, a环比 increase of 14.2 [2][3]. 2. Commodity Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port coke spot market prices declined. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Shijiazhuang regions initiated the fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 1, 2026. Coke production was relatively stable, and steel mills still purchased on - demand [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of main coking raw coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 25 yuan to 610 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan to 955 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal increased by 5 yuan to 1050 yuan/ton. Some coal mines began to control production near the year - end, and the market was in a weak and volatile state [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a small gain on Monday. Affected by the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar futures had an oscillatory trend and a small increase on Tuesday. The 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota in India decreased by 500,000 tons compared to 2025, and Indonesia planned to import about 3.1 million tons of sugar in 2026 [4]. Rubber - Affected by the holiday effect, Shanghai rubber futures had an oscillatory trend and a small decline on Tuesday, and a narrow - range shock and a small decline at night [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures slightly declined on December 30. Brazil's good rainfall was conducive to soybean growth, and multiple institutions raised or maintained their production forecasts. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.14% increase. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the inventory increased by 7.72% week - on - week [5]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11790 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.64% increase. In the short term, the supply pressure was weakened, and the demand was strong, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure was still not fundamentally alleviated [5]. Palm Oil - On December 30, palm oil rebounded in the range. The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures prices rose, and the market sentiment was boosted by the strong performance of Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil and the increasing demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper (main contract 2602) had a high - level correction, with a 2.36% decline in price. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The inventory increased, and the decline was mainly due to profit - taking and cautious downstream purchases [5]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14570 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. Cotton - spinning enterprises purchased on - demand, and the inventory increased by 127 lots [5]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 778, with a closing price of 776 and an increase of 21 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively stable [6]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined on December 30, with a 0.44% decline. The global iron ore shipment increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron ore price was in an oscillatory state in the short term [6]. Asphalt - The main asphalt contract 2602 oscillated and rose on December 30, with a 1.47% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, the shipment volume increased, and the price oscillated in the short term [6]. Steel - On December 30, rb2605 was reported at 3134 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3282 yuan/ton. The macro - policy was expected to be "double - loose", which boosted the market sentiment. However, the steel market supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the price might oscillate in a narrow range in the short term [6]. Alumina - On December 30, ao2605 was reported at 2751 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina ore supply was stable, the import supply was expected to increase, the demand was limited, and the market was in a surplus state [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 30, al2602 was reported at 22565 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment release ended, and the aluminum market declined. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulated, and the demand pressure increased [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by trading sentiment and upcoming adjustments in trading regulations [2][3][4]. Price and Trading Data - On December 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 117,000 CNY/ton and closed at 121,580 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.77% from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 459,530 contracts, with an open interest of 511,309 contracts, slightly down from 512,345 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -1,960 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the spot price and futures price [2]. Spot Prices - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 114,000 and 122,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 112,000 and 118,000 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is reported at 1,550 USD/ton, down by 15 USD from the previous day [3][9]. Inventory Levels - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [4][10]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons; other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [4][10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is primarily driven by market sentiment, with signs of excessive speculation present [5][11]. - Inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, and there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [5][11]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [5][11].

| と期現日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 Z0019938 2025年12月31日 王涛辉 | | 田和 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8410 8390 20 0.24% | | 期价 Y2605 7878 7818 ୧୦ 0.77% | | 基差 Y2605 532 572 -40 -6.99% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 + 520 0 - | | 仓单 28264 28264 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌幅 涨跌 | | 8590 100 现价 广东24度 8490 1.18% | | 期价 P2605 8658 8512 146 1.72% | | 星差 P2605 -68 -22 -46 -209.09% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 + 120 05 + 120 0 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 9099.8 9051.2 48.6 0.54% | | 盘面进口利润 广州港5月 -442 -539 97 18.07% ...

广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者：期市有风险 入市需谨慎！ ax 2017-0 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月31日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 12月29日 | 12月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 1742.64 | 1589.20 | 153.4 | 9.66% | 点 | | SCFIS (美西航线) | 1301.41 | 952.10 | 349.3 | 36.69% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 12月26日 | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFI综合指数 | 1552.92 | 1506.46 | 46.5 | 3.08% | 点 | | SCFI (欧洲) | 1690 | 1533 | 157.0 | ...