每经AI快讯，12月6日，上期所原油期货夜盘收涨0.82%，报457.1元/桶。沪金主力合约收涨0.15%，报 959元/克，沪银主力合约收涨2.67%，报13788元/千克。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 点评 4 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8910 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.5%，持仓减 仓 907 手至 19.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交易日 持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货升水扩至 90 元/吨。多 晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 56910 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.05%，持仓减仓 11085 手至 11.7 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，最低交 割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 4615 元/吨。供给延 续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工业硅重心有 成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下滑，组件 端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂坚持减产不 降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，近月挤仓情绪有所淡化，但 仓单不足情况下正套力量仍在，近月无深跌空间。建议投资者持续跟踪持 仓和仓单情况、谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGH ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: None - **Neutral Outlook**: PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, Paper Pulp, Urea, Benzene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Route) [2][5][13][17][20][27][38][51][54][88][91][95][71][73] - **Negative Outlook**: MEG, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, Methanol, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC [2][5][30][34][43][46][57][59][60][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news, to assist investors in making decisions. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors. For example, some commodities are affected by raw material costs, while others are influenced by production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment [2][5][8][12] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - **PX**: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by costs. The supply is expected to shrink, and the long - PX and short - BZ strategy can be continued, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - **PTA**: It shows a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX costs. The long - PX and short - PTA strategy can be held, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - **MEG**: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The willingness to hold positions decreases, and attention can be paid to the positive spread of the monthly difference [2][5][12] 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It oscillates. Overseas floodwaters recede, and production resumes, causing a decline in Thai raw materials. The domestic market is in the off - cutting season, and raw materials are firm [13][14][15] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates and declines. The supply of butadiene is slightly reduced, and the demand is stable. The synthetic rubber has fundamental pressure but is supported by valuation [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt - It is in a low - level oscillation, and factory inventories slightly increase. The weekly output decreases, factory inventories are flat, and social inventories decrease [20][26] 3.4 LLDPE - The basis declines, and the supply remains loose. The raw material price oscillates, the downstream demand is weak, and the mid - term supply - demand pressure exists [27][28] 3.5 PP - The mid - term trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand peak has passed, and although the short - term market is strong, the trend pressure is large [30][31] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The trend still faces pressure. The high - production, high - inventory pattern continues, the demand is weak, and the cost support is limited [34][35][36] 3.7 Paper Pulp - It oscillates. The price of imported pulp rises emotionally, but the demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [38][41][42] 3.8 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is weak [43][44] 3.9 Methanol - It operates under pressure. The port inventory decreases slightly, the short - term de - stocking slows down, and the mid - term supply pressure is high [46][49] 3.10 Urea - It gradually enters an oscillating pattern. The enterprise inventory decreases, the demand improves, and the price is supported, but the policy pressure may appear [51][52][53] 3.11 Benzene and Styrene - **Benzene**: It oscillates in the short term. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [54][55] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure is high, and the supply pressure is not large [54][55] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [57] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP price changes, and there are many device maintenance plans [59][60][65] - **Propylene**: The pattern remains loose. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is under pressure [60] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates at a low level. The inventory increases, the short - term is not suitable for short - selling, and the supply may decrease in the future [68][69] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It rebounds slightly, possibly getting out of the weak state temporarily [71] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session weakens, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [71] 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Route) - It oscillates strongly due to geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, but the high price may not be sustainable in the mid - term [73][85][86] 3.17 Short - fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - fiber**: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The futures are weak, and the spot sales are sluggish [88] - **Bottle Chip**: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The upstream raw materials are weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light [88][89] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take profits on long positions opportunely. The market price is stable, the demand is weak, and the cost increases [91][92][94] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates mainly in the short term. The inventory accumulates, and the short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [95][96]

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-05 丙烯下游整体开工走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5885元/吨（-36），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（-15），丙烯华北现货价6050元/吨（-15）， 丙烯华东基差115元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差115元/吨（+1）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR188美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR58美元/吨（+2），进口利润-321元/吨（+6），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-250元/吨（+15）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润407元/吨（+69）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润622元/吨（+161）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润440元/吨（+11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-550元/吨（+18）；酚 酮开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-827元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，东华能源宁波PDH装置、茂名石化裂解装置检修，巨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory this week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The overall supply-demand logic of the fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short-process oil chemical plants had relatively high production pressure. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. - The strategy is unilateral neutral. The commissioning pressure is relatively large, and with the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. However, the price center of ethylene glycol has now fallen to the lowest level in the past two years, and recently, negative feedback from high-cost plants has gradually emerged, and the pressure of inventory accumulation has been alleviated [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -71 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1058 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the content. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester was at a low level, and the polyester load provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 75.3 tons, up 2.1 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 71.9 tons, up 1.1 tons month-on-month. The total planned arrivals at the main port of East China this week were 16.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary port were 4.1 tons, which were relatively high, and it is expected that the main port will continue to accumulate inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] Report's Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue range - bound in the short - term and are expected to be optimistic after seasonal pressure in the long - term. Sugar prices have a downward fundamental drive in the short - term with limited further decline and potential for a weak rebound, and may be unoptimistic in the long - term. Pulp prices have limited upside space due to unimproved supply - demand [3][5][8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang had a factory price of 14,854 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [1] - As of November 30, 2025/26, Pakistan's new - season seed cotton equivalent to lint was about 796,000 tons, down 1.1% year - on - year. Domestic mills bought about 666,000 tons, exported about 27,000 tons, and the unsold inventory was about 103,000 tons [1] Sugar - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills in the province had started production (5 last year). 439,400 tons of sugarcane were crushed, producing 44,800 tons of sugar. The sales volume was 32,200 tons, with an inventory of 12,600 tons [4] Pulp - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5496 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.70%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, the price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp was 5525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to rise, with a slow market transaction [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, USDA raised the 2025/26 global cotton production significantly, while consumption increased slightly. End - of - season inventory rose and is in a stock - building phase. US cotton has increased sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure; in the long - term, it has limited downward space but unclear upward drive [2] - Domestically, 2025/26 is expected to see increased cotton production. The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will be restricted by hedging. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downward space of the futures is also limited [2] Sugar - For raw sugar, Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound have put pressure on the market. In the short - term, the downward space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume and the start of sugar mills in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [5] Pulp - In terms of supply, overseas pulp mills have announced shutdowns and production cuts. In terms of demand, European port inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy Cotton - Neutral. Expect range - bound in the short - term. Be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure in the long - term [3] Sugar - Neutral. The short - term downward space is limited, with potential for a weak rebound. The long - term outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp - Neutral. The upward space is limited due to unimproved supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

绝对价格上涨抑制下游采购需求 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22020元/吨，较上一交易日变化220元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-60元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21890元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-190元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21900元/吨，较上一交易日变化210元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-04日沪铝主力合约开于21935元/吨，收于22060元/吨，较上一交易日变化165元/吨，最 高价达22220元/吨，最低价达到21925元/吨。全天交易日成交246366手，全天交易日持仓244457手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-04，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存530900吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-04SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2810元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 284 ...