2025 年 06 月 26 日 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单持续去化，短期偏震荡 多晶硅：继续逢高空配思路为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 7,555 | 70 | 130 | -360 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 504,119 | -108,367 | 52,133 | 219,964 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 306,644 | 13,217 | -11,119 | 128,260 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 30,625 | -460 | -2,745 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 146,141 | -25,828 | 51,417 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） | 80,1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **LLDPE & PP**: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - **Urea**: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - **Inventory &开工率**: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - **开工率 & Profit**: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - **Position & Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - **Supply & Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - **开工率**: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - **裂解价差**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - **Market Drivers**: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 26 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The approval of pure benzene futures and options by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to significantly impact the pure benzene market and the broader aromatic industry chain in China [2][4]. Market Overview - Pure benzene is a crucial organic chemical raw material, with a production capacity of 32.34 million tons and a consumption volume of 29.26 million tons in 2024, accounting for 39% and 43% of global totals, respectively [4]. - China is the world's largest producer, consumer, and importer of pure benzene, with an import volume of 4.31 million tons, leading to a dependency rate of 15% [4]. Risk Management - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options will provide companies with essential tools to hedge against price volatility, which has exceeded 30% in recent years due to various factors such as international oil prices and global economic conditions [5][6]. - Companies have previously relied on long-term contracts and dynamic inventory adjustments to manage risks, but the new futures market will offer a standardized and transparent platform for price risk management [5][6]. Production Adjustment and Profit Locking - The futures and options market will facilitate better supply-demand adjustments within the industry, helping companies stabilize production and profits amid fluctuating market conditions [6][7]. - Producers can lock in raw material prices through crude oil futures while simultaneously securing product sales prices with pure benzene futures, effectively locking in processing profits [6][7]. Enhancing Price Influence - The launch of pure benzene futures and options is expected to create a transparent and authoritative "Chinese pure benzene price," enhancing China's influence in international pricing and reducing reliance on foreign benchmarks [8]. - The establishment of a futures market will support the transition from a "coarse game" to "refined management" in the industry, aiming to position China as a pricing center for pure benzene in Asia [8].

豆粕生猪：进口成本三连降 豆粕期现齐跌 宋歌 songge@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03112006 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018625 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗宗 JIDGHI FILTURES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 3030 | 3069 | -39.00 | -1.27% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2723 | 2747 | -24.00 | -0.87% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2993 | 3037 | -44.00 | -1.45% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2327 | 2374 | -47.00 | -1.98% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 ...

Core Viewpoint - Israel has approved the resumption of operations at its natural gas fields, while Iran's methanol facilities may restart, leading to expectations of supply recovery that could pressure methanol futures below the 2400 level [1] Group 1 - Israel's approval for natural gas field operations is a significant development in the energy sector, potentially increasing supply [1] - The anticipated restart of Iran's methanol facilities could further enhance supply in the methanol market [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether methanol futures can rebound above the 2400 mark amid these supply recovery expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing fluctuations driven by export-related rumors and India's new round of urea import tenders, leading to a significant increase in futures prices and varying spot prices across different regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, the main urea futures contract rose by 2.47%, with a trading volume of 255,200 lots, an increase of 81,630 lots [1]. - The average spot price for medium-sized granular urea in Shandong is 1,754 RMB/ton, down by 10 RMB/ton from the previous working day; in Henan, the price is 1,760 RMB/ton, up by 9 RMB/ton; and in Hebei, it is 1,763 RMB/ton, down by 1 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 25, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises is 1,095,900 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons week-on-week, with a significant reduction of 353% [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea manufacturers is 88.28%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous period, indicating a shift from a declining to an increasing trend [1]. - Daily production of urea in China exceeds 200,000 tons, with agricultural demand not showing strong support, particularly in the Northeast region where summer corn fertilization is starting [3][4]. Group 3: Import Tenders and Future Outlook - India's RCF has announced a urea import tender with an intended purchase volume of 2 million tons, split evenly between the east and west coasts, with the bid opening on July 7 and valid until July 17 [1]. - Market sentiment is currently buoyed by export rumors and the Indian tender announcement, but caution is advised as the demand for urea may not sustain the current price levels due to an oversupply situation [2].

玉米系产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -12 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -4 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) | 2377 104 | 吨) | 2732 -48 | 55 19 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 675 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 997031 | | 135312 | 64913 | | 期货市场 | 26902 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47173 | | -8048 | -3377 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -620 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 219477 | 手) | 23463 | -170 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 355 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9476 | -96 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2588 | -74 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 74 | -20 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 261 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 345260 | -27394 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 550961 | 34339 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 25071 | -10058 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -13119 | -34004 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 100 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 24014 | -697 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 706.1 | -18.3 期货收盘 ...