Core Viewpoint - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. continues to decline, marking the ninth consecutive month below the threshold, primarily due to the impacts of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, which has led to decreased orders, job demand pressure, and increased production costs [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Pressure - The ISM reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, with the new orders sub-index dropping to 47.4, indicating weakened demand due to tariffs raising prices [5][6]. - Manufacturing employment indicators have contracted for ten consecutive months, with 67% of survey participants indicating that managing personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees [5][6]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for 10.1% of the U.S. economy, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while sectors like wood products and transportation equipment are experiencing contraction [6][7]. Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty - Manufacturers in the transportation equipment sector are linking layoffs to the extensive tariff policies of President Trump, indicating a shift towards permanent adjustments, including layoffs and new overseas production initiatives [6][7]. - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in construction [6][7]. - The chaotic trade environment has led to complaints from electrical equipment and appliance manufacturers regarding increasing difficulties in exporting to the U.S. [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, market attention is focused on economic data, including the ISM services index and the ADP private employment report, which are critical for assessing future policy directions [8][9]. - Recent data shows that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice since September and may consider another cut in the coming weeks, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction at the December meeting [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a range-bound consolidation, reflecting intense market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index showed a slight recovery compared to the end of November, indicating a month-on-month decline that highlights the market's fierce debate over Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - In November, market expectations shifted significantly, with a notable drop in the anticipation of a rate cut in December due to delays in the release of the October non-farm payroll report and divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" revealed a decline in consumer spending and a weak job market, leading to a resurgence in the probability of a rate cut in December, which subsequently pressured the dollar index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a narrow range, with the upper boundary corresponding to the retracement neckline formed by the high on November 19, and the lower boundary representing recent low points, indicating a typical "box consolidation" pattern [2] - Short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross but are flattening, while medium to long-term moving averages are diverging downward, suggesting weak short-term support but an unresolved medium-term downtrend [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near neutral, indicating insufficient market momentum, while the MACD shows a narrowing green histogram followed by a slight increase in the red histogram, suggesting potential direction selection after short-term fluctuations [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve may have more room to cut rates in 2026 compared to other non-US central banks, potentially leading to a further downward shift in the dollar's volatility center [3] - Despite significant declines in 2025, the US economy still holds advantages over Europe and Japan, suggesting that any further declines in the dollar may be limited next year [3] - Various risk factors, including the US midterm elections and the execution of tariff agreements, are expected to intermittently disrupt market sentiment and increase exchange rate volatility [3]

在10月份，由于潜在买家因担忧预算案中针对英国房地产市场增税而暂缓决策，英国住房贷款需求略有 下降。英国央行周一数据显示，抵押贷款批准数量从9月的65,647件降至65,018件，高于经济学家预测的 64,500件，表明潜在需求仍具韧性。 这些数据进一步证明，预算案公布前的市场猜测对楼市产生了抑制作用。此前传闻财政大臣雷切尔.里 维斯将对高价房产征收财富税以填补预算缺口，此举可能对伦敦和东南部地区的业主造成尤其严重的冲 击。 英央行另一组数据显示，10月份消费者净借款额为11亿英镑，低于前月的14亿英镑。随着消费者为黑色 星期五折扣和圣诞购物季做准备，11月借款额可能有所回升。 而11月26日公布的预算声明并未如市场担忧那般对房地产市场进行全面打击，主要措施仅针对价值超过 200万英镑(约合260万美元)的房产开征新税。这提振了市场对未来数月楼市可能重拾动力的预期。 对借款人而言，通胀似乎已见顶，且英国央行预计将在本月晚些时候进一步降息。 10月份英国家庭向银行和建房互助会账户额外存入68亿英镑，高于此前六个月59亿英镑的平均水平。 据英央行统计，家庭当月向计息活期存款账户增存55亿英镑，向免税个人储蓄账户存 ...

（图片由豆包生成） 刚刚过去的周末， 美国总统特朗普表示已决定下任美联储主席人选 ，此前他曾多次明确表示期待新主席推动降息。 这一表态引发市场积极反应，10年期美债收益率一度跌破4%。 美国财长贝森特上周表示， 特朗普可能在12月25日圣诞节假期前宣布提名人选 。现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束，但其作为美联储理事的任期要到 2028年才结束。 特朗普确认已作出决定 特朗普周日在空军一号返回华盛顿途中告诉记者："我知道我要选谁，是的。我们会宣布这个决定。" 但他未透露具体人选姓名。 特朗普频繁批评现任美联储主席鲍威尔未能迅速降息，并多次释放信号希望新主席更积极推动降息。 此前在11月18日，特朗普曾表示"我真想马上把现在那个人换掉，但有人在阻止我这么做。" 白宫国家经济委员会主任Kevin Hassett（哈塞特）在接受媒体采访中强调， 市场对特朗普即将宣布新主席人选的消息"反应非常非常积极"。 作为特朗普首席 经济顾问的哈塞特被视为接替鲍威尔的热门人选，目前在polymarket预测中以66%的概率领先。 哈塞特表示： 相关消息传出后，美国国债拍卖表现强劲，利率下降，这表明"美国民众可以期待特朗普挑选一 ...

Group 1 - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of key economic events occurring next week, focusing on their potential impact on monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate adjustments [1] - Key events include the release of the November ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is crucial for understanding the current state of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. A further decline in this data could increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3] - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is anticipated, although it may not contain significant statements regarding monetary policy due to the current "quiet period" before the Fed's decision [3] Group 2 - The U.S. August JOLTs job openings data is expected to provide insights into the current labor market conditions [4] - The U.S. November ADP employment change is being closely monitored, with expectations of a modest increase of 20,000 jobs, reflecting the negative impact of the government shutdown on the labor market [6] - The U.S. September Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is projected to slightly slow to 2.8%, making it a critical inflation indicator before the Federal Reserve's decision [8]

此外周一的11月ISM制造业PMI、周三的ISM服务业PMI、周四的周度失业救济申请，以及周五的10月核心PCE和密歇根 大学12月初步消费者信心调查，都将成为焦点。这些数据如果继续显示经济弱势，将进一步巩固降息预期。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 银价在上一日盘中交易中飙升，突破关键阻力54.35美元，随后连续创下新高，随后突破下一个关键阻力55.80美元。主 看涨趋势在短期内占据主导地位，并与支撑性小趋势和主趋势线并行交易。尽管已触及超买水平，但相对强弱指标中出 现了积极信号。今日国际白银下方关注56.35美元或55.20美元支撑，上方关注58.00美元或59.00美元阻力。 巴克莱经济学家在一份报告中表示，美联储在12月9-10日会议上降息25个基点的可能性非常大，市场定价的降息概率已 超过80%。他们表示："我们预计鲍威尔将投票支持此次降息，并加入由至少包括沃勒、鲍曼、威廉姆斯、杰斐逊、库 克和巴尔在内的一个阵营。" 然而，他们预计内部会有强烈分歧，至少有两次来自施密德和穆萨勒姆的鹰派反对票，以及一票来自古尔斯比或柯林斯 的反对。 他们还表示，米兰也可能投反对票，但理由是支持更大幅度的降息。巴克莱预计美联 ...

泰国央行行长Vitai Ratanakorn表示，近期洪灾对泰国经济的冲击可能为0.1至0.2个百分点。当被问及洪 水是否会影响货币政策时，Vitai说，"货币政策的影响范围广泛。因此，央行会采取有针对性的政策来 帮助"那些受洪水影响的人。这包括要求银行放宽受灾严重地区借款人的还款期限。央行和财政部正在 协调政策，共同努力支持经济增长。Ratanakorn认为有降息的空间。 ...

2025 年 12 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 1 上周五中国股市涨跌互现。港股下跌，医疗保健、能源与地产建筑领跌，原 材料、可选消费与信息科技领涨，南向资金净买入 27.3 亿港币，阿里巴巴、 泡泡玛特与小米集团净买入居前，中芯国际、紫金矿业与华虹半导体净卖出 最多。A 股上涨，工贸综合、可选消费零售与国防军工涨幅居前，银行、煤 炭与医药生物跌幅最大。国债收益率走平，人民币兑美元走强。 中国 11 月制造业 PMI 环比回升至 49.2，其中出口指数回升和高新技术制造 业 PMI 连续 10个月扩张是亮点，产成品库存指数再度下降表明需求疲弱推动 企业去库存。非制造业 PMI 小幅回落。 东京核心通胀超预期支持日本央行进一步加息。11 月东京核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%超出市场预期，电力价格上涨速度加快，抵消食品价格涨幅下降的影响。 近期日元走弱可能加剧日本通胀压力，增加了 12月加息概率。日本批准 18.3 万亿日元补充预算，发债计划中短债占比显著上升，因长债收益率持续上升。 德国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.3%低于预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has confirmed that he has selected a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with strong indications pointing towards Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett, aged 63, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has a background that includes working at the Federal Reserve and serving as an economic advisor to several Republican leaders [2]. - Hassett is known for advocating tax cuts and loose monetary policy, and he has publicly supported faster and more frequent interest rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market data indicates a significant increase in the probability of Hassett's nomination, rising to 64% from less than 40% in the previous week, while other candidates have much lower probabilities [1]. - The market reacted positively to the news of Trump's impending nomination announcement, with improved performance in Treasury auctions and a decrease in interest rates [3]. Group 3: Current Federal Reserve Context - Under Jerome Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve has recently cut interest rates, bringing the benchmark rate to its lowest level in three years [5]. - Trump has been critical of Powell, suggesting that he would like to dismiss him and has made various accusations regarding the Federal Reserve's management [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has decided on the next Federal Reserve Chair, with expectations for the new appointee to advocate for interest rate cuts, leading to a positive market reaction, including a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The announcement of a new Fed Chair candidate has resulted in a strong performance in U.S. Treasury auctions and a decrease in interest rates, indicating that the public can expect lower auto loans and mortgage rates [3]. - Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, noted that the market's response to the upcoming announcement was "very positive" [1][6]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell, with a 66% probability of being nominated according to Polymarket predictions [1]. - Other potential candidates include Federal Reserve Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder, although Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has ruled himself out [7]. Group 3: Nomination Process - The nomination is expected to be announced before the Christmas holiday, with Powell's term ending in May of the following year [3][7]. - Any nominee will require Senate confirmation, and if the candidate is from outside the Fed, they may also need to be confirmed for a 14-year term starting in February [7].