Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the CPI growth in August has rebounded due to food and energy, but the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service inflation suggest that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The August CPI in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9% (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [1] - Core CPI remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%) [1] - The transmission of tariffs remains slow, with core goods excluding used cars maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.17%, unchanged from July [1][2] - Service inflation remained stable, with rental inflation being the main contributor, although its sustainability is questionable [2] Group 3 - Short-term focus is expected to remain on employment risks rather than inflation, as the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service inflation indicate that inflation will not be a constraint for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness has not disrupted the consensus on a soft landing, with the market currently favoring rate cut trades rather than recession trades [2] - Concerns about the U.S. inflation pressure persisting after rate cuts need to be monitored, despite the current demand-side weakness slowing tariff transmission [2]

Core Viewpoint - The combination of a moderate inflation report and signs of a cooling labor market has led to significant gains on Wall Street, with speculation that the Federal Reserve will implement its first rate cut of the year next week [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy - The recent economic data indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's focus towards maximizing employment, as evidenced by a significant rise in initial jobless claims, overshadowing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [2]. - Analysts believe that while inflation data has not completely cooled, it is insufficient to prevent the Federal Reserve from addressing the weak employment outlook [2][6]. - The futures market shows a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a 90% chance of two additional cuts later this year [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Global Impact - Asian stock markets have followed the upward trend of U.S. markets, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI indices reaching historical highs, driven by optimism surrounding AI-related earnings growth [1][7]. - The Nikkei index rose by 3.7% this week, while the KOSPI index also saw significant gains [1][7]. - The anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve is influencing global capital markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also experiencing gains [5][7]. Group 3: Divergence in Central Bank Policies - In contrast to the Federal Reserve's anticipated easing, the European Central Bank has maintained a cautious stance, keeping interest rates unchanged and indicating that its policy is in a "good position" [9]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank in December are currently low, at about 20% [9].

Inflation Data - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.7% in July[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% and up from 0.2% in July[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices rebounded significantly, contributing to the inflation rise, while food prices held steady at 2.9% year-on-year[2] - Household food prices increased from 0% to 0.5% month-on-month, indicating a notable contribution from this category[2] - The housing services sector showed a year-on-year decline but rebounded month-on-month, attributed to seasonal demand and lower mortgage rates[2] Market Implications - The inflation data supports the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting, shifting market focus from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" within the year[2] - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while bond yields initially fell before rising again, indicating mixed market reactions[2] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of unexpected increases in import prices and a potential downturn in the U.S. economy and employment levels, which could impact future inflation trends[2]

【导读】秘鲁央行降息25个基点，将基准利率降至4.25% 中国基金报记者 李智 各国央行密集出手，降息！ 秘鲁央行降息25个基点 9月12日，秘鲁央行宣布降息25个基点，将基准利率降至4.25%。 秘鲁央行在声明中称，此次调整后，利率已非常接近预估的中性利率水平。 与此同时，秘鲁央行提示称，全球经济活动前景继续受到对外贸易限制措施的影响，由于其存在高度不确定性，全球经济活动中期前景仍 呈下行倾向。 秘鲁央行表示，此次降息的主要 原因 是，秘鲁的通胀压力有所降温。8月，月度总体通胀率为-0.29%，而不包括食品和能源的通胀率为 0.08%。国内总体通胀率从7月的1.7%降至8月份的1.1%，该结果估计是暂时的，主要原因是部分食品价格的回调速度快于预期。不含食 品和能源的年通胀率从7月的1.7%升至8月的1.8%，接近目标区间的中心值。 8月，秘鲁年通胀预期保持在2.2%，处于通胀目标区间内。预计到年底，年通胀率将接近目标区间的中心值。同时，预计不含食品和能源 的通胀率在预测期内将保持在2%左右。 秘鲁央行表示，8月秘鲁大部分现实状况指标有所改善，而经济活动预期指标结果好坏参半。在整体经济活动处于潜在水平附近的背 ...

Market Expectations - The market anticipates a 2% (200 basis points) interest rate cut by the Russian Central Bank, marking the second consecutive cut and the end of the tightening cycle [1] Economic Slowdown - The Russian economy is experiencing a slowdown, with economic growth for the first 7 months of the year nearing the lower bound of the Central Bank's 1%-2% forecast [1] - Economists are warning that full-year economic growth may fall below the 1%-2% range [1] - July's industrial production grew by only 0.7%, falling short of June's 2% and approximately half of economists' expectations [1]

Inflation Overview - August CPI year-on-year growth increased to 2.9%, up from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year growth remained stable but slightly increased by 0.05 percentage points[3] Commodity Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth reached 1.5%, the highest since June 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points[4] - Used car prices surged, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 1%[4] - New car prices increased to a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[4] Energy Inflation - CPI energy component year-on-year growth turned positive at 0.2%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Brent crude oil average price fell to $68.4 per barrel, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions[11] Service Inflation - Core service year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight month-on-month decrease to 0.3%[4] - Owner's equivalent rent year-on-year growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4%[4] Market Expectations - Market anticipates an average of 2.9 interest rate cuts within the year, with a strong expectation for a cut in September[4] - Recent labor market adjustments indicate a potential oversupply, impacting inflation expectations[4] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and potential over-tightening by the Federal Reserve[23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Inflation Overview - In August 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[5] - Core CPI remained stable, also increasing by 3.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value and meeting market expectations[5] Inflation Drivers - The rise in overall inflation was primarily driven by increases in food and energy prices, with food CPI contributing 0.06 percentage points and energy CPI contributing 0.05 percentage points to the overall CPI increase[8] - Core goods CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating rising inflationary pressure due to tariffs, particularly in clothing and automotive sectors[8] Housing and Services - Housing CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing 0.14 percentage points to the overall CPI, while core services CPI growth was limited, indicating moderate inflationary pressure in this sector[8] - The rental index suggests that housing inflation may trend downward in the coming months, limiting core service inflation pressure[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - The current economic indicators suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, with further cuts likely in October and December depending on employment data[8] - Market expectations for rate cuts have strengthened, with probabilities for October and December rate cuts increasing by 10.9% and 13.5% respectively following the CPI release[8] Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations due to the recent implementation of tariffs, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding future rate cuts[43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US inflation data, highlighting the resilience of inflation despite some structural differences, and the implications for monetary policy, particularly regarding the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5][21]. Inflation Data Summary - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, and the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [1][5]. - Core CPI also remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. - The inflation peak occurred in June 2022 at 9.1%, followed by a downward trend, with a low of 2.3% in April 2025 before gradually rebounding [1][5]. Core Goods Prices - Core goods prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% [2][11]. - Factors contributing to this increase include a rebound in used car prices and price hikes in various goods affected by tariffs, such as televisions (+2.5%) and new cars (+0.3%) [2][11][12]. - Some goods, like footwear (-0.4%) and personal computers (-0.6%), saw price declines, indicating mixed impacts from tariffs [2][11]. Services Prices - Core services CPI remained sticky, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][18]. - Housing costs, particularly owners' equivalent rent, were significant contributors, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][18]. - The supercore services category (excluding housing) saw a slight decrease in month-on-month growth to 0.3% from 0.5% [3][20]. Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, surpassing market expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [4][25]. - The increase in jobless claims, combined with previous non-farm payroll slowdowns, suggests a significant weakening in employment signals [4][25]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 93.9% from 91.1% [4][26]. - US Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 2 basis points to 3.52% and the 10-year yield down 3 basis points to 4.01% [4][26]. - The US dollar index weakened to 97.53, while major US stock indices rose, particularly the Russell 2000 index, which saw significant gains [4][26].

此次降息的原因主要是，秘鲁的通胀压力有所降温。据秘鲁央行的新闻稿，国内总体通胀率从7月的 1.7%降至8月的1.1%。但这一结果被认为是暂时性的，主要原因是部分食品价格的回落速度超出预期。 同比核心通胀率则从7月的1.7%升至8月的1.8%，已接近通胀目标区间的中点。 "降息潮"来势汹汹。 在美联储9月议息会议前夕，多国央行出手。北京时间9月12日早间消息，秘鲁央行宣布，降息25个基 点；土耳其央行当地时间11日宣布，降息250个基点，将基准利率从43%下调至40.5%，超出市场预期。 与此同时，美国最新发布的就业与通胀数据也为美联储开启降息周期扫清了障碍。花旗分析认为，美国 8月CPI报告及其细节为美联储启动降息提供了更多依据，预计美联储将开启新一轮降息周期，在未来 五次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上累计降息125个基点。 刚刚宣布：降息 北京时间9月12日早间消息，秘鲁央行宣布，降息25个基点，将基准利率从4.50%下调至4.25%。这与彭 博社调查的15位经济学家中8人的预测一致，另7人预计秘鲁央行将连续第四次维持利率不变。 秘鲁央行在发布的声明中称，此次调整后，利率已非常接近预估的中性利率水平。 ...