知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | 一个 太阳! | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月4日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 消歧 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓単成本:卡粉 | 803.3 | 811.0 | -7.7 | -0.9% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 844.7 | 845.8 | -1.1 | -0.1% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 847.0 | 857 3 | -4.3 | -0.5% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 843.5 | 844.6 | -1.1 | -0.1% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | 3.8 | 10.5 | -6.7 | -63.6% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 45.2 | 45.3 | -0.1 | -0.2% | 元/吨 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 47.5 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High - level oscillatory market, maintain long PX short BZ, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][8] - PTA: Single - sided high - level oscillatory market, hold long PX short PTA, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][9] - MEG: Hold long MEG short PTA, price oscillates between 3800 - 4000, focus on positive spread of monthly difference [2][9] - Rubber: Oscillatory and weak [2][10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory decline [2][14] - LLDPE: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][17] - PP: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][19] - Caustic soda: Trend still under pressure [2][23] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][28] - Glass: Original sheet price stable [2][32] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation, upside space narrowing [2][36] - Urea: Spot trading volume continuously increasing, price center rising [2][41] - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [2][44] - Soda ash: Spot market with little change [2][48] - LPG: Trend under pressure [2][51] - Propylene: Pattern remains loose [2][52] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2][62] - Fuel oil: Narrow adjustment, weak trend continuing [2][63] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Night session continuing to weaken, spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing slightly [2][63] - Freight index (European line): Oscillatory market [2][65] - Staple fiber: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Bottle chips: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Offset printing paper: Low - level oscillation [2][80] - Pure benzene: Short - term mainly oscillatory [2][84] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the performance of various commodities in the energy and chemical industry is differentiated, with some in oscillatory markets, some under pressure, and some showing signs of improvement. Factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment comprehensively influence the price trends of commodities [2] - For some commodities, short - term and medium - term trends may differ, and investors need to pay attention to changes in fundamentals and market news [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PXN continues to widen, with supply expected to shrink as domestic operating rate is 88.5% (-1%), some devices have maintenance plans, and demand from PTA increases as its operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%). However, overseas gasoline market impacts PX valuation [5][8] - **PTA**: With the restart of some devices, the operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%), and polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%). Supported by PX cost, the single - sided price is in a high - level oscillatory market, but beware of the negative feedback from the terminal industry [9] - **MEG**: The price center drops, with supply tightening as some domestic devices have changes and overseas devices are under maintenance, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally. Hold long MEG short PTA [6][9] Rubber - The rubber market is oscillatory and weak, with the futures price falling, trading volume and open interest decreasing. The spot price also declines, and the demand from the tire industry is weak [10][11] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in an oscillatory decline. Although the inventory of some products decreases, the market is affected by natural rubber and butadiene news, with weak downstream demand and high supply suppressing the price upside [14][15] LLDPE - The LLDPE basis turns positive, but the supply remains loose. The futures price is weak, which dampens market sentiment. The downstream replenishment is cautious, and the supply pressure may increase in the medium - term [17][18] PP - PP shows a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is relatively high, and the demand peak has passed. Although the short - term trading volume improves due to low prices, the long - term factors such as cost, supply, and demand still dominate [19][20] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is under pressure, with high production and inventory. The demand from the alumina industry is weak, and the export is under pressure. The spot price is expected to decline [23][25] Pulp - The pulp market is in an oscillatory operation. The price rises due to supply tightening expectations and cost support. The demand for living paper is stable, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [28][30] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is still weak, and the market is mainly for rigid - demand pick - up [32][33] Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillatory operation with narrowing upside space. The port inventory decreases, but the short - term destocking speed slows down. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction, and the MTO profit is compressed [36][39] Urea - The urea spot trading volume increases continuously, and the price center rises. The enterprise inventory decreases, and the demand from reserves and exports improves. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term upside is limited [41][42] Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The pure benzene market is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in the future. The supply of styrene is stable, and the downstream inventory is high [44][45] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [48][49] LPG and Propylene - LPG is under pressure, and propylene's pattern remains loose. The prices of LPG and propylene futures decline, and the operating rates of relevant industries change slightly [51][52] PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillatory state. The price is at a historical low, and some devices may reduce production due to losses, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [60][61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a narrow adjustment with a weak trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken at night. The spot prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil decline, and the spread narrows slightly [63] Freight Index (European Line) - The freight index (European line) is in an oscillatory market. The futures price rebounds with reduced positions. The spot freight rate changes, and the future trend is affected by factors such as shipping company price increases and market supply - demand [65][74] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Staple fiber and bottle chips are cost - supported, with short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures prices are weak, and the spot prices are stable. The sales rate of staple fiber decreases [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a low - level oscillatory state. The spot price is stable, and the cost increases while the profit decreases. The market demand is weak [80][81] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory increases, and the price changes slightly. The short - term market is under pressure, but there are supply contraction expectations in the future [84][85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] - For sugar, short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] - For pulp, recent price increases are driven by the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.14%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] - The expected cotton planting area in Australia in 2025/26 is 406,000 hectares (6.09 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The total cotton output is expected to be 943,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA significantly increased the global cotton output in 2025/26, while consumption only slightly increased. The global ending inventory rose significantly compared to September and returned to inventory accumulation. US cotton production increased significantly due to higher yields, but exports only increased by 40,000 tons, increasing sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term upward drive is unclear [3] - Domestically, cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to increase. The expected output in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, new cotton is concentrated on the market, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, and short - term supply is abundant. Zhengzhou cotton's upward movement will be suppressed by hedging orders. Downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but spinning profits have improved, and inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downside [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year. Cumulative cane crushing was 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year. Sugar production was 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year. The sugar production rate was 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower. Cumulative sugar sales were 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year. The sales rate was 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher. The industrial inventory of new sugar was 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly sorted. In the international market, Brazil's strong supply strengthened the oversupply expectation, and India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the market. In the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening, limiting the downside of raw sugar prices. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices [5][6] - In the domestic market, the latest announced sugar and syrup imports are higher than expected, and with the successive start of sugar mills in Guangxi, short - term supply pressure remains [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,458 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 2.44%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [6] - In October 2025, the total inventory at European ports decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% year - on - year. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, inventories at ports in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively [7] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices rose strongly. On the supply side, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group announced a temporary shutdown of the Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons from December 15, expected to resume production gradually on January 7 next year, and is preparing for significant production cuts at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory at European ports in October decreased significantly month - on - month and slightly year - on - year, indicating some improvement in demand. In the domestic market, although there has been a large amount of finished paper capacity put into production this year, terminal effective demand has been insufficient, and the paper industry is in an oversupply situation. Paper mills' operating rates are not high, and overall production has not increased significantly. The oversupply in the paper industry has led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Downstream paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high domestic port inventory [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, pulp futures prices have risen strongly in the past two days. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-04 市场氛围一般，进口成本支撑延续 1、\t12月3日地区价格：山东市场，4430-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4270-4500； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷588美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷580美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 市场分析 合人民币价格丙烷4580元/吨，涨60元/吨，丁烷4518元/吨，涨76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷573美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4526元/吨，涨60元/吨，丁烷4463元/吨，涨75元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 沙特阿美公司12月CP上调，LPG进口成本支撑延续。现货方面，昨日华东区域价格温和上涨，其余区域维稳为主， 交投氛围一般，上游库压可控。就基本面来看，近期中东供应边际收紧，科威特阿祖尔炼厂检修延长，国内炼厂 供应相对平稳 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21940 | 30 | 485 | 280 | 1205 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22010 | - | - | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2897 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 275 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 161612 | -16380 | -11276 | -47636 | 78532 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 249248 | -9192 | -9808 | -62021 | 38262 | | | LME铝3M成交 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 下游承压价格走弱，多晶硅基本面表现仍较弱 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-03，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8955元/吨，最后收于8920元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-145）元/吨，变化（-1.60）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓193926手，2025-12-03仓单总数为6892手，较前 一日变化108手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM调研，南北地区工业硅开工率分化，川滇硅企继续枯水期减产节奏开工率延续下行趋势。北方个别硅企 有增开或复产开工率上行。增减变化之下预计12月工业硅产量或基本持平于11月。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13200-13500（150）元/吨。SMM报道，在单体企业减排和持续挺价预期 背景下，刺激 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 海外升水高位难降 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为250.98美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至22790元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22700元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-35元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22690元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-45元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-03沪锌主力合约开于22745元/吨，收于22755元/吨，较前一交易日50元/吨，全天交易日成交 106416手，全天交易日持仓104585手，日内价格最高点达到22800元/吨，最低点达到22695元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-03，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.43万吨，较上期变化-0.38万吨。截止2025-12-03，LME 锌库存为52450吨，较上一交易日变化75吨。 市场分析 海外现货升水高位难下滑，海外库存绝对值处于低位，出口利润扩大，国内现货升贴水持续表现为向好趋势，国 内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好，国内社会库存持续下滑。11月冶炼端产量环比回 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金继续向远期 2605 合约移仓。美豆期价受中 国采购预期支撑高位运行，但巴西大豆创纪录的丰产预期及美豆较巴西大豆的升水限制了上行空间。 国内豆粕高库存与油厂高压榨量对价格形成压制，而下游生猪养殖存栏高位支撑饲料需求，使得市场 在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复博弈。短期豆粕 2605 合约仍将维持区间内震荡偏弱运行，需关注 南美天气变化及中国采购美豆的实际进展。 时间周期说 ...