Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a rebound due to effective policy measures, although export pressures remain [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth [2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [2]. - New export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its upward trend for two months [2]. - Special bond issuance reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year, particularly through special bonds and local government financing to support economic growth and counteract tariff impacts [3][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is anticipated to be a critical point for policy adjustments [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Growth - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has recorded negative growth for 32 consecutive months since October 2022 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in May, with four consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is projected to be around 5.2%, with a target of 5% for the full year [4]. Future Outlook - Economic downward pressure persists, influenced by tariff fluctuations and weak domestic demand [5]. - The government may introduce additional policies to support key sectors and stabilize the economy, including potential monetary easing if external conditions worsen [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance emphasizes the impact of fiscal policy on current inflation levels and market expectations, highlighting the need for the central bank to understand how various economic agents are affected [1] Group 1 - Fiscal policy is a significant factor influencing inflation and market expectations in Brazil [1] - The central bank's understanding of the effects on different economic agents is crucial for effective policy implementation [1]

Group 1 - Concerns over Japan potentially increasing bond issuance have impacted the global long-term bond market, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.42%, marking the longest rising cycle since April [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while Japanese and German 30-year bond yields are also reaching significant levels [1][2] Group 2 - The global long-term bond market is facing turmoil as traditional buyers exit the market amid increasing bond supply, particularly affecting the UK and Japan [4] - Japanese long-term bonds have seen significant price drops, with the 30-year bond yield exceeding 3%, nearing historical highs [4] - Major Japanese life insurance companies, traditionally significant buyers of long-term bonds, are avoiding such securities due to rising interest rates and supply pressures [4] Group 3 - In the U.S., budget deficit concerns are bringing bond supply back into focus, with upcoming auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries [5] - Recent strong economic data has diminished expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting U.S. Treasury performance [5] - The swap market now indicates two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contrasting with earlier expectations of three cuts [5]

Group 1 - The market is overly optimistic about the economic outlook, ignoring the negative impacts of unprecedented high tariffs, particularly on small businesses and inflation [1] - Multiple factors, including tariffs, a weak dollar, and potential demand slowdown, are impacting the inflation outlook, with tariffs expected to drive inflation higher in the second half of the year [1] - The labor market's ability to buffer against economic recession is weaker than in any period post-pandemic, with fewer job vacancies per unemployed person compared to 2021-2022 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal policy is creating a tug-of-war effect on economic growth, with both tariffs and fiscal measures raising inflation risks [2] - Inflation-protected assets, such as TIPS, appear relatively cheap, and could benefit if market sentiment shifts towards inflation concerns [2] - The Federal Reserve's economic forecast suggests a median expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut this year, but inflation pressures may lead to fewer cuts than anticipated [2]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250707 美股连涨，非美风偏收紧——港股&海外周 观察 我们对港股持谨慎乐观态度。港股下行有底，关注短暂回调后的或有增 量资金入场。 1、港股还处在震荡趋势中，超宽松的流动性并未流向二级市场股票。 2、外部风险上行。1）美股仍处在反弹趋势中，持续创历史新高。部分 海外机构或将继续回流美股，分散中国资产的关注。2）市场重新关心 美国对等关税议题，担心有变。 3、进入数据验证期，市场将会更关注经济基本面和企业盈利面。最近， 互联网巨头价格战，市场担心二季度企业盈利下滑。 4、随着市场进一步回调，增配红利和自下而上寻找低估股票渐渐成为 共识。部分此前获利了结资金也在寻找合适时机入场增配。 ◼ 美股：事件面及宏观经济韧性，推动美股再度走高。其中道指领涨 2.3%， 标普 500 及纳指分别上涨 1.7%及 1.6%。 特朗普"大美丽"法案"闯关"成功。美国独立日当天（7 月 4 日）， 特朗普签署了大规模减税和支出法案——"大美丽法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）。具体来看，减税方面，主要是 2017 年个人所得税 减税永久化、延长并提高 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized GDP growth for Q2, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2] - Employment data indicates a divergence from economic trends, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 233,000, below seasonal levels, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased, with the 5-year breakeven inflation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% [3] Group 2: US Market Reactions - The US stock market rose by 1.7% due to stronger-than-expected employment data, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown from trade policy uncertainties [3] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has diminished, with expectations returning to two cuts of 50 basis points, and the probability of a July cut dropping to zero [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with strategies suggesting a focus on short to medium-term US bonds [4] Group 3: China Economic Insights - China's economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for Q2, with June manufacturing PMI at 49.7, indicating a slight contraction [6] - Real estate investment is expected to decline significantly, with cumulative growth projected to drop to -11.2% due to seasonal factors and high base effects from last year [6] - External demand for Chinese exports may recover, aided by the easing of trade restrictions with the US and a rebound in US import demand [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is influenced by the central government's focus on "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to lead to significant policy announcements in the second half of the year [8] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 1.4%, driven by strong performance in banking and sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms [10] - The bond market experienced slight gains, with a balanced outlook expected in the short term, while potential policy adjustments could increase market volatility [9] Group 5: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to concerns over US debt sustainability and rising uncertainties from tariff suspensions [4] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by both positive and negative factors in the trade environment [4] - Gold prices may experience short-term fluctuations but are expected to have strong medium-term support due to ongoing central bank purchases [4]

一、现货黄金基本面： 三、现货白银技术面： 5. 央行购金需求强劲：2025年全球央行对黄金储备的需求量维持高位。据世界黄金协会统计，2025年前四个月，各央行净购金256吨。中国人民银行截至 2025年5月末，已连续七个月扩大黄金储备。世界黄金协会6月17日发布的调查显示，95%的受访央行认为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金，近43%的 央行计划在未来一年内增加自身黄金储备，央行的购金行为对黄金价格形成有力支撑。 6. 市场需求结构变化：2025年一季度全球金矿产量同比增长0.5%至890吨，但同期黄金ETF流入量达226吨，推动投资需求同比增长170%。中国、印度等传 统消费大国金饰需求同比下降32%，而投资需求占比从2024年的18%跃升至34%。这种"消费萎缩、投资扩张"的格局，预示黄金正从商品属性向金融属性加 速转变，投资需求的增长有利于黄金价格上行。 二、现货黄金技术面： 回顾上周五现货黄金的价格走势，上周五美国独立日假期，美国市场休市一天，整体成交量萎缩，价格波动较小，截至目前市场报价约3330.00美元/盎司。 从短线1H周期技术图形观察，1H价格明显处于横盘震荡的走势中。 基于当前技术形 ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment data for June showed a rare divergence, with a disappointing ADP report but strong non-farm payrolls, indicating mixed labor market signals [1][2] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, moving from clean energy investments and social security expansion to tax cuts, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration enforcement [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment number decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest drop since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 95,000 [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, slightly below the expected 240,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [2] - Seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expectation of 110,000 [2] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill includes a $5 trillion increase in the U.S. debt ceiling and significantly cuts funding for healthcare programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects [2] - The European Central Bank's June monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that most inflation indicators suggest medium-term inflation will stabilize around the 2% target [2] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's June foreign exchange reserves and CPI, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [2]

文章称，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，持续用力、更加给力，推动已确定的各 项政策举措充分发挥红利。我国宏观政策仍有进一步发力的空间。面临外部环境更趋复杂严峻、国内需 求不足、风险隐患较多等困难和挑战，应提高宏观调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据形势变化及时推 出增量储备政策，更好地巩固经济发展和社会稳定基本面。 ...