Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Pork Industry**: Focus on companies like Muyuan, Dekang, Wens, Shennong, and Juxing Agriculture - **Beauty and Personal Care Industry**: Highlighting brands such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei - **Gold and Jewelry Industry**: Recommendations for Changhongqi and Caibai - **Retail Industry**: Emphasis on Xiaoshangpin City and Bubu Gao - **Education and Training Sector**: Focus on K12 education leaders and AI applications - **Restaurant and Beverage Sector**: Recommendations for Mixue and Guming - **Automotive Industry**: Focus on Huawei's smart vehicles and Changan Automobile - **Textile Manufacturing Sector**: Recommendations for companies in the ASEAN region and Nike's supply chain - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: Focus on companies with high R&D investment Core Points and Arguments - **Pork Industry**: The significant impact of pork prices on CPI, with a noted 8.5% decrease in pork prices leading to a 0.12 percentage point drop in CPI in June 2025. The strategy of capacity control to boost pork prices is crucial to mitigate CPI pressure [2][3][4] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: The industry is in a traditional off-season, but high-end brands like Mao Ge Ping and operationally strong brands like Shangmei are recommended due to low base effects from last year [6] - **Gold and Jewelry**: Despite a 20% drop in gold jewelry consumption in Q2, brands with strong same-store performance like Changhongqi and low-valuation, high-dividend companies like Caibai are recommended [6] - **Retail Sector**: Xiaoshangpin City is highlighted for its strong business certainty, while Bubu Gao is noted for potential investment opportunities post-unlock of shares [7] - **Education Sector**: K12 education leaders and AI applications are emphasized, with companies like Dou Shen and Fen Bi showing strong growth [8] - **Restaurant Sector**: The rise of takeaway services is noted, with companies like Guming and Mixue recommended for their growth potential [8][9] - **Automotive Sector**: Huawei's smart vehicles are performing well, with new models like M7 and M8 expected to launch soon, while Changan's S9 model shows stable delivery [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The sector is expected to see performance and stock price turning points, with a focus on companies benefiting from reduced tariffs in the ASEAN region [13][14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: A new cycle of R&D investment is anticipated, with a focus on companies sensitive to domestic demand recovery and those specializing in large molecules and oncology [26][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Pork Industry**: The adjustment in the pork breeding sector is linked to broader economic conditions and CPI management strategies [3][4][5] - **Retail Sector**: The potential for supermarkets and department stores to experience operational turning points is noted [7] - **Automotive Sector**: The upcoming launch of multiple new models indicates a strategic push for market share [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The impact of tariff changes on the competitive landscape and the potential for recovery in the sector is highlighted [14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: The increasing trend of funding sources and the focus on early-stage research are critical for future growth [26][27]

2025年至今，生猪期现货市场供需博弈加剧，呈现"现货上下两难、期价重心震荡上移"的格局。从产能 角度来看，今年生猪供应宽松，但未出现往年的大跌行情，受养殖端缩量提价、政策调控加码等因素影 响，价格整体走势平稳，行业仍处于磨底阶段。全国生猪现货价格在13500~16500元／吨区间震荡，高 点出现在春节前，低点出现在端午节后。我的农产品网数据显示，8月初，全国生猪出栏均价为14.10元 ／千克，低价区报13.20元／千克。 今年以来，生猪期货主力合约价格波动率整体呈现下降趋势，处于较低水平。上半年期货市场整体 呈"弱预期"走势，市场预期后市供应压力较大，对猪价持悲观预期，年初主力合约价格最低跌至12600 元／吨附近。但在现货市场价格下跌幅度有限的情况下，受期现回归驱动，期货近月合约价格出现向上 修复的补涨行情，彼时正向套利策略普遍表现较好。随后，受4月上旬贸易摩擦、7月生猪行业"反内 卷"政策预期等因素影响，生猪期货价格进入震荡反弹阶段，重心曲折上行。7月23日，主力合约最高涨 至15150元／吨。不过，目前仍处于季节性需求淡季，现货价格大幅贴水期货价格，主力合约价格冲高 回落，7月底震荡回调。临近交割月， ...

后非瘟时代，随着行业逐步向优势产能集中、产能去化放缓、猪价波动幅度趋弱，周期逐步弱化，生猪 养殖业进入微利时代。同时，防疫水平抬升及养殖效率优化共同驱动全行业成本中枢下移，但现阶段不 同养殖主体之间成本方差较大，单公斤成本能拉开2元/千克甚至更高的差距，具备成本优势和疫病防控 优势的规模养殖主体仍有望获取超额利润并实现盈利累积。 看得见的手如何引导行业变化? 年初以来猪价长期在成本线以上运行，产业整体保持着较好盈利。能繁母猪产能自2025年4月开始高位 回升，截止5月底，我国能繁母猪存栏约4042万头，高于正常保有量3900万头的基准线。2025年年中以 来，农业农村部、发改委等相关部门采取多种措施引导产能调控，促进生猪养殖业高质量发展——通过 引导降重、限制二育销售等方式调整短期生猪供应;严控新增产能，引导能繁调减100万头左右至3950万 头，预计2026年的生猪供需格局亦将显著改善;长期看，则通过环保政策、融资渠道收紧等多种方式引 导能繁母猪降至合理水平。 招商证券主要观点如下： 政策端的变与不变：民生导向&高质量发展并重 过往十多年来，在环保政策执行及非瘟大考下，生猪养殖业低效产能加速退出，行业养殖效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side policies in the pig farming industry aim to stabilize pig prices and market conditions, with a focus on reducing breeding stock and controlling output weight, leading to a gradual improvement in production capacity regulation [1][6]. Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to cost efficiency, with leading companies gaining significant advantages [1][6]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase due to stricter environmental regulations and production capacity controls [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The number of pigs undergoing secondary fattening is decreasing due to tightened supply, and profitability for secondary fattening farmers has significantly declined [3][4]. - As of July, the average monthly price of pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from January and 4.3 yuan/kg from the previous year [3][4]. - The profitability for self-breeding farmers has dropped from 350 yuan/head at the beginning of the year to around 113 yuan/head by July [4]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have emphasized the need to control the number of breeding sows and limit secondary fattening, with specific weight controls for pigs being implemented [5][6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has held meetings with leading enterprises to enforce these production capacity regulations [6][9]. Cost Management - Leading companies are focusing on reducing production costs, with major players like Muyuan and Wens aiming for costs as low as 12 yuan/kg by the end of the year [7][8]. - The production efficiency of leading firms has improved significantly, with PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) reaching between 25 to 32 in top companies [6][7]. Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to enter a phase of "micro-profit balance and reduced volatility" in the second half of the year, with supply pressures potentially exceeding demand [10][11]. - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.43 million heads, slightly above the normal level, indicating a need for continued capacity regulation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese government has adopted a more optimistic stance on economic growth and the easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions, as reflected in the Politburo's recent meeting outcomes [1][2] - The Politburo's attitude towards the economic growth outlook has improved compared to the April meeting, with a notable reduction in concerns regarding the Sino-U.S. trade conflict [2][3] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will focus on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to shape future economic policies [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies, suggesting a shift from introducing new policies to enhancing the effectiveness of existing ones [4] - There is a reduced urgency for large-scale stimulus measures in key sectors, with a focus on developing new growth points in service consumption and supporting goods consumption [5][6] - The government remains cautious regarding local government debt issues, emphasizing the need to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts while addressing existing debt challenges [6] Group 3 - The tone regarding "anti-involution" actions has softened, with the Politburo opting for a more general approach to addressing disorderly competition rather than specific measures to eliminate outdated capacity [3][4] - The recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have led to a more moderate stance on export support, reflecting a decrease in urgency following the potential extension of the tariff truce [6] - The meeting did not mention any plans for additional funding for the vehicle trade-in program, indicating a limited scope for new consumer incentives [5][6]

每经记者｜胥 帅 每经编辑｜陈俊杰 近期，养猪行业愈发强调"反内卷"，调控新增产能，此行业环境变化也传导到资本市场。 7月28日晚间，有两家养猪行业龙头公告调整此前的定增计划——神农集团（SH605296，股价32.28 元，市值169.42亿元）终止了定增事项，巨星农牧（SH603477，股价21.22元，市值108.24亿元）将定 增授权有效期延长12个月至2026年8月22日。这两家养猪企业的定增方案都涉及养猪产能扩张。 7月28日晚间，神农集团发公告称，公司审议通过了《关于终止2024年度以简易程序向特定对象发行A 股股票事项并撤回申请文件的议案》。神农集团该定增事项的起始时间是2024年4月24日，至今已一年 多。2025年4月24日，公司该定增方案还获得了上交所审核通过。 为何神农集团选择终止定增？《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，神农集团终止的理由是市场环境变化。公 司称，在综合考虑资本市场状况以及公司整体发展规划等因素，经与相关各方充分沟通及审慎分析后， 决定终止。 根据定增方案，神农集团合计募资2.9亿元，其中1.37亿元用于红河弥勒神农畜牧有限公司五山乡年出栏 24万头优质仔猪扩繁基地建设项目。 ...

Group 1 - The pig farming industry is increasingly emphasizing "anti-involution" and regulating new production capacity [1][5] - Shennong Group announced the termination of its private placement plan, while Juxing Agriculture extended the authorization period for its private placement [1][3] - Shennong Group's terminated private placement aimed to raise 290 million yuan, with a portion allocated for a pig breeding project [2][3] Group 2 - Shennong Group's new stock incentive plan focuses on revenue, slaughter volume, and breeding costs, without emphasizing growth in pig farming scale [2][3] - Juxing Agriculture's extended private placement authorization is valid until August 22, 2026, reflecting a strategic response to market conditions [3][4] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is pushing for high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing strict capacity control measures [5]

生猪产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14125 | -260 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 61415 | -881 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 284 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -24623 | 809 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14000 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13800 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15500 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -125 | 160 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | | 0.1 | 0.2 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2860 | | | | 玉米现 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pig farming sector, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to increased slaughtering and seasonal demand [10][21]. - The poultry sector, particularly white-feathered chickens, is seeing price increases driven by stocking up in anticipation of better market conditions [35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at stabilizing production capacity in the pig industry, which could lead to long-term price improvements [10][31]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs on July 25 was 14.10 CNY/kg, down 0.09 CNY/kg week-on-week [10]. - Slaughtering volumes remain low due to hot weather and weak market demand, with an average daily slaughter of 134,700 pigs, up 1.44% week-on-week [14]. - The average weight of pigs at market decreased to 128.48 kg, with group farms averaging 124.27 kg and smallholders at 141.92 kg [21]. - Recent policy discussions emphasize strict production capacity controls, including the reduction of breeding sows and the encouragement of large enterprises to collaborate with smaller farms [31]. Poultry Sector - The price of white-feathered chickens rose to 6.70 CNY/kg, an increase of 0.30 CNY/kg week-on-week, while chicken seed prices reached 1.93 CNY/bird, up 0.56 CNY/bird [35]. - Egg prices also showed strength, with an average of 6.73 CNY/kg, up 0.90 CNY/kg week-on-week [35]. - The ongoing avian influenza situation is affecting supply, with restrictions on imports from certain countries potentially leading to further price increases [39]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures saw a decline, with the DCE soybean meal contract closing at 3,021 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY/ton week-on-week [48]. - The report notes that downstream feed enterprises are increasing purchases due to concerns over rising prices, while domestic oil mills maintain high processing volumes [50]. - The report anticipates limited downward price adjustments for soybean meal in the short term, with a gradual upward shift in price levels expected [50]. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a 3.62% increase over the past week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.67% [55]. - Within the agricultural sub-sectors, the livestock industry led with a 5.27% increase, followed by planting and aquaculture [55].