Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a slight price increase, driven by strong futures prices and improved demand from downstream buyers, although overall demand remains cautious and supply pressures persist [3][4][5]. Urea Futures Market - On July 21, the urea UR509 futures contract opened at 1790, reached a high of 1818, and closed at 1812, reflecting an increase of 54 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, a rise of 3.07% [3]. - The futures market is buoyed by macroeconomic policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and a generally strong commodity market atmosphere, which has positively influenced spot market transactions [3]. - The release of new export quotas and replenishment of fall compound fertilizer factories are expected to marginally improve market demand, easing some supply-demand tensions [3]. Spot Market Analysis - The domestic urea market saw a slight price increase, with improved purchasing willingness from mid and downstream sectors, although overall supply remains strong against weak demand expectations [4]. - Price ranges in various regions include: Northeast (1750-1790 CNY/ton), East China (1810-1860 CNY/ton), Central China (1790-1950 CNY/ton), North China (1720-1810 CNY/ton), South China (1840-1950 CNY/ton), Northwest (1900-1910 CNY/ton), and Southwest (1750-2030 CNY/ton) [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a cautious approach from buyers, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [5]. - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by macroeconomic policies and expectations of increased exports, which may provide some emotional support for prices [5]. - Current supply levels remain high, with daily production slightly down but still at elevated year-on-year levels, indicating a surplus in the market [5]. Price Adjustments - Specific price adjustments on July 21 include: Guangdong (1900-1920 CNY/ton), Guangxi (1840-1850 CNY/ton), and Hebei (1760-1780 CNY/ton) [7][8].

Group 1 - The overall trend of "double coke" futures prices continued to decline since October last year, with a rebound observed in June 2025 [1] - The coking coal market faced supply pressure leading to a continuous drop in prices, while coke prices followed suit due to cost collapse [1][2] - In the first quarter, domestic coal production was high, but a seasonal decline occurred during the Spring Festival, followed by a rapid recovery in production [1][2] Group 2 - The second quarter saw an oversupply of coke capacity and weak bargaining power, leading to continuous price reductions [2] - International trade tensions exacerbated market pessimism, further driving down commodity prices [2] - By the latter half of the second quarter, environmental policies and safety production measures led to production cuts in some regions, which, combined with low coal prices, improved market sentiment and prices began to rebound [2] Group 3 - In the first five months of the year, domestic coking coal production maintained a rapid growth rate, with a cumulative production increase of approximately 9.72 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year rise [2][3] - Despite production cuts in May and June, the overall situation of oversupply and loose supply in the coal industry remained unchanged [3] - The majority of coal mines are still profitable, which is a key reason for their reluctance to cut production [3] Group 4 - The current coal industry policy focuses on stable production and supply to ensure energy security, with plans to implement a coal capacity reserve system by 2025 [3][4] - The approach to managing excess capacity has shifted from aggressive elimination to a more regulated exit of outdated capacity [4] Group 5 - Coking coal imports have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, with May imports down 17% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year [5][6] - The decline in Mongolian coal imports is attributed to the overall drop in domestic coal prices, reducing the cost-effectiveness of imported coal [6] Group 6 - Coking coal prices are at relatively low levels, with recent inventory levels at coking plants increasing slightly due to accelerated procurement [7] - Although there is a short-term inventory reduction, overall inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [7] - The production cuts driven by environmental and safety factors are not expected to be sustainable, and coal production is likely to remain high [7]

Core Viewpoint - The SBS market is experiencing a downward trend in the first half of 2025 due to oversupply and negative impacts from export tariffs, with expectations of continued pressure on prices in the second half of the year [1][2][8] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the SBS market price showed a general downward trend, aligning with previous forecasts, with a price fluctuation lower than expected [1][2] - The average price in the East China 792E market was 14,514 CNY/ton in Q1, down 4.16% from the previous quarter, and the price as of June 30 was 12,950 CNY/ton, a 10.7% decrease from the beginning of the year [2][3] Supply and Production - Domestic SBS production increased significantly, reaching 487,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 35.13% year-on-year growth, with June production hitting a record high of 89,000 tons [5] - The average gross profit for domestic SBS was 523 CNY/ton, an increase of 803 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year, indicating a generally favorable profit level [5] Demand and Export - Demand for SBS was lower than expected due to macroeconomic factors and tariff impacts, with fixed asset investment in transportation down 7.7% year-on-year [7] - Although SBS exports increased by 10.69% year-on-year in the first five months, April saw a negative growth of 12.58% month-on-month, reflecting the adverse effects of tariffs [7] Future Outlook - The SBS market is expected to face continued supply pressure in the second half of 2025, with new production facilities coming online and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][9] - The anticipated price range for SBS in the East China market for the second half is projected to be between 11,500 and 13,600 CNY/ton, influenced by seasonal demand and the performance of raw material markets [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11] - The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,540 - 64,820 yuan/ton [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuously high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient receiving willingness at the power battery end [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in July 2025 will be 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase from June [8] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will decrease [8] - Cost: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,936 yuan/ton, a 0.69% day - on - day increase, with a loss of 160 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, a 0.68% day - on - day increase, with a loss of 7,005 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with high profit margins and strong production motivation [8] - Basis: On July 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8] - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 58,598 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,765 tons, a 0.66% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 41,430 tons, a 6.34% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a 1.77% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish signal [8] - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [8] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Lithium ore: The price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.05% to 673 US dollars/ton; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate increased by 1.44% to 1,405 yuan/ton [13] - Lithium salt: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.55% to 63,650 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.57% to 62,050 yuan/ton [13] - Other products: The prices of some products such as anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [13] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Production: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium has increased to varying degrees [16] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 24.75% to 371,378 tons. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 25.37% to 21,145.78 tons [16] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium ore market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the monthly production has increased [29] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, and the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [29] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [34] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly production capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have shown different trends [37] - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different periods [37] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [40] 3.6 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - Different raw materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations, and most are in a loss state [43][46] - The cost - profit of lithium hydroxide production also shows different trends [49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate at smelters, downstream, and other sources have different changes [51] - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide at downstream and smelters has different changes [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - Production: The monthly production and shipment volume of lithium battery cells have changed [54] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed in different periods [54] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [60] - Production: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors have different trends [60] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [63] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials have different trends [67] - Production: The weekly production capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary materials have different trends [67] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [69] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71] - Production: The monthly production and production capacity utilization rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71][74] - Export: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has changed [74] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production: The production volume of new energy vehicles has changed, including plug - in hybrid and pure - electric vehicles [79] - Sales: The sales volume and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [79][80] - Inventory: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have changed [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being a prominent issue. The overall market is affected by factors such as production costs, inventory levels, and downstream demand [8]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate varies by source. Ore - based production (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) is currently at a loss, while the cost of the salt - lake end is relatively low, with sufficient production motivation [8]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is higher than the historical average, which has a negative impact on the market [8]. - The downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increasing by 3.75% and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 3.59% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with daily - on - daily increases of 0.84% and 1.03% respectively, and production at a loss. The cost of the salt - lake end is lower, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 9, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,100 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.10% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. Different types of inventory (smelter, downstream, and other) showed different trends [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a positive signal. The net short position of the main contract increased, showing a negative signal [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and upstream and downstream products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.22%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64% [13]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly production rate decreased by 1.59%, and the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an 8.34% increase from the previous month. The production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) also showed different trends [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production rate and output of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 5.55%, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased [16]. 3.3 Supply - Related Sections - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased slightly, and the inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends over time [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production rate and output of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The supply - demand balance showed different states in different months [28][34]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide was relatively large, and the supply - demand balance also changed over time [36][40]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related Sections - The production cost and profit of lithium compounds (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide) from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was at a loss [43][46]. - The import profit, purification profit, and carbonization profit of lithium carbonate also showed different trends over time [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related Sections - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was higher than the historical average, and the inventory of different sources and types also changed [50][51]. 3.6 Demand - Related Sections - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends. The monthly output and loading volume of power batteries increased, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changed [54][55]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also changed in different months [60][64]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials also changed over time [66][67]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production, and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends. The cost - profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [78][79].

Group 1 - Current soda ash prices are below the production costs of most companies and significantly discounted in the spot market, but the supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, leading to limited sustainability in price rebounds [1][3] - The soda ash market is currently characterized by oversupply, with production capacity remaining stable and a high operating rate of around 85% in June, despite some companies undergoing maintenance [1][2] - The float glass industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing weak demand and increasing losses, which may lead to a further decline in soda ash demand if no policy stimulus occurs [2][3] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the price of soda ash is between 950 to 970 yuan per ton, with delivery costs estimated at 1230 to 1250 yuan per ton, suggesting a potential for arbitrage if spot prices do not rise significantly [3] - The light soda ash demand remains weak, with downstream companies maintaining low operating rates and poor stocking intentions, indicating a lack of recovery in demand [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a notable decline in the photovoltaic glass market, further contributing to the pressure on soda ash demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, and there is no rating for inter - period investment [3] Core View - The international oil price and propane price continue to be weak, so the cost - side support for polyolefins is weak [2] - The supply has slightly increased due to the return of previously shut - down maintenance units and the successful commissioning of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP unit. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season, and future inventory unit maintenance will be intensive, which will relieve some of the pressure from new supply [2] - The downstream is in a seasonal off - season with limited demand boost. The agricultural film industry is at a low level of operation, and other terminal industries are also operating weakly. Rigid demand for restocking is expected to be weak [2] - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,261 yuan/ton (- 41), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,070 yuan/ton (- 33), the LL North China spot price is 7,240 yuan/ton (- 30), the LL East China spot price is 7,350 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP East China spot price is 7,160 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL North China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+ 11), the LL East China basis is 89 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the PP East China basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 358.8 yuan/ton (- 7.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.2 yuan/ton (- 7.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 268.5 yuan/ton (+ 156.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific price difference data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 58.3 yuan/ton (- 5.8), the PP import profit is - 314.6 yuan/ton (- 49.0), and the PP export profit is 22.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供强需弱 价格底部徘徊 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1189-1219 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 现货价格阴跌调整，尚未企稳，市场成交弱，下游拿货意向 不足，碱厂新订单接收缓慢。 【后市展望】 供给端：纯碱企业陆续有检修企业开始执行，产量及开工呈 现一定下降预期，但整体损失量相对前期下降。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 19 元/吨，周度涨幅 1.59%，报收 1194 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 上周全国纯碱现货市场价格普遍下跌。 供给方面产量、产能利用率有所回落，截止 2025 年 6 月 26 日，上周国内纯碱产量 71.67 万吨，环比下跌 3.80 万吨，跌幅 5.04%。其中，轻质碱产量 32.4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 主要逻辑：产能错配导致供强需弱，下行态势较难改变。 主要风险点：停减产/检修计划冲击，产业出清启动时间点。 4 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18462吨 环比增长1 84% ， . , | 高于历史同期平均水平 | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本 ...

晨报 成材 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 20 日 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 4.61 万吨至 212.18 万吨， 热卷产量上升 0.8 万吨至 325.45 万吨，五大材产量上升 9.66 万吨自 868.51 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 7.01 万吨至 551.07 万吨，热卷总库存 下降 5.24 万吨至 340.17 ...