英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二亚太市场大跌。韩国 KOSPI 指数跌幅超 7%，日经 225 指数跌幅超 3%。A 股虽然早盘表现出一定韧性，但午后也未能独善其身，三大指数集体收跌。主要 原因可能是霍尔木兹海峡关闭，直接引发了市场对原油供应的担忧。作为亚洲主 要经济体，中日韩等国均是油气进口大户。 回到 A 股盘面，以"三桶油"为代表的石油石化板块领涨，煤炭、银行、航运 等板块也获得资金关注；而另一方面，全市场却有超 4000 只个股下跌，此前热 门的科技、传媒、旅游等板块显著承压。说明地缘政治风险触发了防御型资金的 集中配置，同时也导致成长股的风险偏好暂时被压制。 2026 年 3 月 4 日 外部扰动导致市场下跌，耐心等待市场企稳信号 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 如何看到市场的调整，我们认为，这次美伊冲突的升级，更多是改变了市场 的节奏，而非扭转了牛市根基。地缘冲突的发展往往具有高度的不确定性，短期 不妨保持观望，密切关注以下 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/03/04 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/25 -380 5653 272475 287806 -801.62 221.45 51.0 48.0 -76.52 249650 12525 2026/02/26 -410 5423 272475 289219 -786.94 -98.00 50.0 47.0 -69.53 253600 12775 2026/02/27 -410 5349 391529 290594 -1481.33 -2.75 50.0 47.0 -49.47 253700 13150 2026/03/02 -350 4898 391529 295881 -1054.70 -63.48 47.0 47.0 -74.01 257675 12775 2026/03/03 -335 4865 391529 300505 -1476.86 -84.70 47.0 47.0 -43.95 ...

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属日报 2026-3-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z002314 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 中东战事引发东亚股市抛售，铜价震荡走低，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收盘跌 0.92%至 12964 美元/吨，沪铜 主力合约收至 101330 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存持平于 257675 吨，注销仓单比例微升，Cash/3M 维持贴 水。国内上期所日度仓单增加 0.5 至 30.0 万吨。华东地区现货贴水期货缩窄至 175 元/吨，市场货 源较充裕，下游复工推进采买情绪尚可。广东地区铜现货贴水期货缩窄至 160 元/吨，盘面下跌下游 补货增多。国内铜现货进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

首席点评： 能化板块继续大涨，持续关注热点机会 工业和信息化部等六部门发布关于促进光伏组件综合利用的指导意见。目标到2027年，光伏组件绿色生产水平进一步提高，再生材料使用比 例有效提升，光伏组件综合利用量累计达到25万吨。关键技术方面，表层结构拆解、层压件高效分离、组分提取等需取得突破。同时，将制 定一批光伏组件绿色设计和综合利用方面的技术标准，培育一批废旧光伏组件综合利用骨干企业。到2030年，目标是形成能够应对大规模退 役潮的废旧光伏组件综合利用能力。期市夜盘收盘，国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现。涨幅方面，原油、燃料油、甲醇等涨幅居前。跌幅方 面，沪锡、沪银等跌幅较大。 重点品种：原油，甲醇 原油： SC夜盘涨停。以色列和美国军队对中东某国境内多个目标发动了袭击，这导致伊朗在波斯湾地区进行了报复性打击。随着冲突蔓延至 黎巴嫩，局势进一步紧张。伊朗已对霍尔木兹海峡地区的能源基础设施和油轮发动袭击，该海峡是全球五分之一的石油和液化天然气运输通 道。伊拉克作为OPEC第二大产油国，将其日产量削减了近150万桶。由于危机导致无法出口的原油储存空间即将耗尽，这一削减幅度可能在 几天内进一步翻倍。沙特石油阿美石油公司 ...

韩国股市在 短短一个交易日从"全球最强"迅速降温 。受中东局势推升油价、全球风险偏好下滑等因素叠加影响，年内表现领先的Kospi指数遭遇集中获 利了结，权重股下挫放大跌势。 从"全球最强"到盘中熔断，韩国股指Kospi单日暴跌超7%！周二在美上市韩国ETF同样暴跌，盘中一度跌近15%，最终收跌超10%。美伊冲突推高油价 叠加外资巨额抛售韩股，引发高位获利踩踏，三星、SK海力士等权重股重挫。市场避险情绪升温，韩元走弱，航运、防务与能源板块走强。 资金流向显示，海外投资者在下跌前已开始降低敞口。韩国交易所数据披露， 2月最后一个交易日国际投资者净流出7万亿韩元（约47亿美元）。 两大权重股成为抛售中心。 三星与SK海力士股价分别下跌9.88%和11.5% ，拖累大盘创下自2024年8月日元套利交易突然平仓引发波动以来的最大单 日跌幅。 风险厌恶也体现在汇市与大宗商品上。韩元兑美元下跌1.34%，美元获得避险买盘支撑；与此同时，美国与以色列周六对伊朗发动打击后油价上涨，对 高度依赖中东原油的韩国构成直接压力，并加速市场对此前过热行情的重新定价。 获利了结集中爆发，年内涨幅从50%回落至37% 即便出现急跌，韩国市场 ...

On February 28th, 2026, Operation Epic Fury fundamentally altered the landscape of the Middle East. While the initial mandate focused on wiping out Iran's nuclear capabilities, the confirmed assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Kami has shifted the objective toward systemic regime change. that's triggered a state of strategic paralysis in Tyrron and has sent shock waves through global energy markets.Here with me to help break things down is IBD news editor Ed Carson. So Ed, the market started this week showi ...

伊朗局势牵动全球化工品走势 美以对伊爆发冲突后一方面会直接推高全球油价，另一方面伊朗若长期封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将推高原油及 化工品运输成本，伊朗局势如何演绎短期将很大程度影响全球化工品走势。2025年2月，伊朗国家石油化 工公司（NPC）负责人表示，伊朗石化行业的生产能力已达到约1亿吨，其中60%用于生产甲醇、氨、乙烯 和其他基本化学品等关键基础产品。到2027年，伊朗的石化产能预计将超过1.3亿吨。化工品中，伊朗甲 醇、尿素、LPG、烯烃等产品产量或出口量全球占比相对较高，若伊朗局势持续发酵，相关化工品价格或 将被持续推高。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 美东时间2月27日深夜至2月28日（伊朗时间2月28日上午），美军与以军联合对伊朗发动代号为" ...

2026.03. 03 本文字数：2084，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 在中东地区地缘局势升级的背景下，市场对石油天然气、煤炭、化工品的供应预期以及海运价格预期 发生了较大变化，相关上市公司受到资金密集追捧。 3月3日，A股集体走弱的情况之下，石油天然气指数大涨9.83%、燃气指数涨9.29%、海运指数涨 8.82%、能源设备指数涨幅5.91%。 3月3日晚间，包括中国石油（601857.SH）、中国石化（600028.SH）、中国海油 （600938.SH）、中曼石油（603619.SH）、中海油服（601808.SH）等在内的十多只油气股、 能源股，以及包括中远海能（600026.SH）、招商轮船（601872.SH）、招商南油 （601975.SH）等在内的多只航运股集体发布异动公告，提示风险。 同时，多家上市公司在公告或互动平台回应了中东局势对业务的影响。 上市公司集中公告降温 中东地缘风险影响油价的关键在于霍尔木兹海峡。据EIA估计，2024年霍尔木兹海峡石油日均贸易 量约2000万桶，占全球海运石油贸易超四分之一。 从原油运输的方向上看，2024年经过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油和凝析 ...

3 月 3 日，中东地区美伊冲突持续发酵，权益市场放量下跌。万得全 A 下跌 2.97%，全天成交额 3.16 万亿 元，较昨日（3 月 2 日）放量 1118 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数下跌 1.12%，恒生科技下跌 2.26%。南向资金净流 入 60.81 亿港元，其中腾讯控股和小米集团分别净流入 25.59 亿港元和 7.81 亿港元，而阿里巴巴和中远海能则分 别净流出 12.09 亿港元和 3.84 亿港元。 地缘局势升级导致的流动性冲击延续，亚太市场普跌。上证指数、日经 225和韩国综指分别下跌 1.43%、 3.06%和 7.24%，且均为"昨日跌幅不大，今日大幅调整"的行情，或是市场在随地缘局势升级而不断调整预期。 从 A股内部来看，流动性冲击的特征明显。一是小微盘大跌，中证 2000 下跌 4.16%；二是隐含波动率大幅上 升，沪 300ETF IV 指数上升 12.56%，指向兑现情绪持续发酵。 地缘局势影响下，此前活跃度不高的筹码有所松动。市场延续放量状态，成交额放大至 3.16 万亿元。2 月市 场虽然在大跌后持续修复，但成交不活跃始终是隐忧，代表这段上涨缺乏资金确认，属于偏弱格局下的修复 ...