文 | 史玥明 来源 | 光大期货微资讯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 共性驱动：三大核心因素撑起贵金属牛市根基 01 2026年开年的贵金属市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过。1月14日，现货白银首次突破90美元，再创历史新高，新年首月累计涨幅 已远超市场预期。一边是投资者涌入贵金属ETF、相关LOF基金份额屡创新高的狂热，一边是芝商所一个月内三次上调保证金、彭博 指数调整引发被动减仓的降温信号。 图源：wind 无论是黄金的稳步攀升，还是白银的暴力突破，本质上都是多重宏观变量共振的结果。梳理当前市场环境，地缘政治风险升温、美联储 降息预期强化、全球战略储备需求激增，这三大共性因素构成了贵金属上涨的核心支撑，且每一个因素都有明确的数据与事件佐证。 1. 地缘政治"风暴眼"持续扩容，避险需求空前高涨 贵金属的避险属性，在全球地缘冲突加剧的背景下被无限放大。进入2026年，全球地缘政治的"火药味"明显变浓，从美洲到中东再到北 极，多重冲突点叠加，直接推升了市场对贵金属的配置需求。 最受关注的莫过于特朗普政府的对外政策动向。据央视新闻报道，美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案，包括向中东派 遣航 ...

中信证券指出，地缘政治风险或推动油价短期走高，但考虑到当前全球原油市场仍处于供给宽松格局， 预计油价仍将在60~70美元/桶扰动。考虑到委内瑞拉石油短期供给缺口或在100万桶/天左右，预计短期 油价将上行。 产业链及企业梳理 一、油气设服 通源石油：主营射孔等油田技术服务，通过整合北美射孔业务，在射孔细分领域形成业务布局。近期地 缘政治异动，油田服务相关业务受到市场关注。 中曼石油：开展油气勘探开发工程服务与装备制造业务，可承接油气田新建与增产改造项目。近期委内 瑞拉石油设施修复需求显现，公司可参与相关项目合作。 截至1月13日收盘，美国WTI原油期货3月合约结算价报60.93美元/桶，涨幅1.61美元或2.7%。布伦特原 油期货3月合约结算价报65.47美元/桶，涨幅1.60美元或2.5%。 中国石化：主营原油炼制、石油产品营销及化工产品生产，覆盖原油产业链中下游环节。近期国际原油 价格调整，对公司原油加工成本产生影响。 中国海油：专注海上原油勘探开发与生产，拥有多区域海上油气田开发业务。近期全球原油市场供给格 局变化，影响公司原油生产与销售安排。 洲际油气：布局海外油气资产勘探开发业务，拥有境外油气田相关 ...

地缘政治不确定性犹存，黄金见顶言之尚早需警惕风险尽管短期走势显示见顶迹象，但全球地缘政治的持续紧张，仍为黄金提供了底层支撑。特朗普政府对 美联储独立性的刑事调查，以及对伊朗贸易伙伴加征25%关税的威胁，引发了对全球供应链和石油市场的担忧。 海湾国家游说美国避免对伊朗动武，警告 石油扰乱将损害经济稳定。同时，美国对格陵兰岛的图谋激化美欧关系，欧盟和北欧国家联合发声，警告北约可能终结。这些事件放大避险需求，推动资金 向黄金倾斜，即使美元强势，也难以完全抵消这一效应。地缘政治紧张局势和对美联储独立性的质疑是黄金的基本面支撑。特朗普对鲍威尔展开刑事调查， 招致全球央行官员的批评，进一步放大不确定性。德国商业银行上调2026年底黄金价格预估至4900美元，花旗银行策略师甚至将目标价调至5000美元，白银 至100美元。他们将地缘政治风险加剧、现货市场短缺和美联储不确定性列为主要原因。 此外，日本首相高市早苗的鸽派政策可能引发日元进一步贬值，间接支撑美元，但也增加了全球货币政策不确定性。日本当局已发出汇市干预威胁，这或将 引发更广泛的市场波动。 在这种背景下，黄金的见顶风险虽存在，但言之尚早。核心通胀仍高于央行目标，多数 ...

2026年1月贵金属市场迎来"开门红"，行情火爆程度超出市场预期。截至1月14日，当月仅过半程，现货黄 金累计涨幅已达7%，盘中突破4629.94美元/盎司的历史峰值；现货白银表现更为凌厉，累计涨幅飙升 23%，一度触及86.22美元/盎司的新高，国内市场同步狂欢，沪银主力合约多次触及涨停，沪金合约涨逾 5%，A股贵金属板块个股集体走强，晓程科技、盛达资源等涨幅超8%。这波凌厉涨势再度让"贵金属牛 市"成为市场热议焦点，而背后是政策不确定性、地缘风险与产业需求的多重共振。 2025年全球新能源汽车销量突破1500万辆，AI服务器出货量增长80%，持续推升白银工业需求。而供应端 方面，南美主要产银国秘鲁、智利因罢工、环保政策等问题产量同比下降8%，再生回收比例仅20%难以弥 补缺口，供需失衡成为白银涨幅远超黄金的关键原因。 资金面的持续涌入为涨势提供了动能支撑。全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust最新持仓增加3.43吨至 1074.23吨，尽管全球最大白银ETF持仓小幅减少，但期货市场投机情绪高涨，白银投机者净多头头寸创下 历史新高。国内市场同样呈现资金加速布局态势，华安黄金易ETF规模逼近千亿 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 油价呈现五连涨，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.65 美元至 61.15 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.77%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 1.60 美元至 65.47 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.51%。SC2602 以 450.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 12.7 元 | | | | /桶，涨幅为 2.90%。伊朗局势的发展也加剧了市场原本的看涨情 | | | | 绪，因为 Caspian Pipeline Consortium 将哈萨克斯坦原油装载到油 | | | | 轮上的终端受到干扰，恶劣天气、无人机袭击和维护检修等多重 | | | | 因素叠加都在威胁到出口。装船量已被下调近一半至每日约 90 万 | | | 原油 | 桶，不过哈萨克斯坦已经设法将部分石油转移到其他运输线路以 | 震荡 | | | 降低影响。API 数据显示，上周，美国 API 原油库存增加 527.8 万 | | | | 桶，之前一周为减少 276.6 万桶。上周 ...

FPG特约分析师（chad）观点： ●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 周二，金价在盘中一度触及4634美元/盎司的历史高位后回落。美元走强是黄金下跌的主要原因之 一。不过，地缘政治风险抑制了金价的下行空间。 2. 地缘政治方面，美国总统特朗普周一宣布，对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%的关税。此外，俄罗 斯夜间乌克兰多个城市展开导弹和无人机攻击。 3. 在特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，对美联储独立性的担忧与日俱增，并引发美联储 前任主席和全球央行行长的批评。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 现货黄金创下历史新高，不过，金价在纽约交易时段创下新高后大幅回调，最终当日收盘转为下跌。美 元走强成为金价回调的主要原因，此外，部分投资者在近期金价暴涨后获利了结，这也打击金价走势。 美联储料在1月27-28日的会议上按兵不动，不过投资者目前预测今年降息两次降息。由于黄金本身不生 息，利率降低往往有利于黄金。 ●今日关键指标（事件）： 21:30 美国11月零售销售月率 21:30 美国11月PPI年率 23:00 美国10月商业库存月率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in mainland China is accelerating, benefiting sectors such as technology, healthcare, and non-ferrous metals, with continuous upward adjustments in profit expectations for the technology sector [1] - The semiconductor industry is also expected to benefit from AI-driven investments and domestic substitution demand [1] - Geopolitical risks are easing, and liquidity injections are favorable for the stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong, maintaining a neutral outlook for the Hong Kong stock market over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - In the ESG (low-carbon) investment sector, governments reached a consensus at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference to significantly increase investments in clean energy and low-carbon economies [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that total global investment in energy transition will amount to several trillion dollars, greatly promoting the development of renewable energy, energy storage technologies, and electric vehicles [1] - Low-carbon strategies are providing higher downside protection and relatively better returns compared to traditional stock strategies amid increasing volatility in the investment environment [1] Group 3 - The CEO of the company believes that the investment boom in artificial intelligence is not over and is not in a bubble phase, as the related industrial chain is benefiting from positive spillover effects [1] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the impact of tariffs on the global economy will continue to be a focal point for the market, with expectations of volatility due to market sensitivity to related news [2] - The company maintains a neutral outlook on global equities over the next 12 months, given that economic resilience exceeds previous expectations, while remaining cautious about sudden market news related to trade negotiations and geopolitical events [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - **Asphalt**: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - **Aluminum**:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - **Tin**:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - **Polysilicon**: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - **Styrene**: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - **PX & PTA**: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - **Corn**: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - **Sugar**: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - **Wood & Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]

化工日报 | 2026-01-14 原油反弹PXN压缩，关注聚酯减产情况 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，隔夜原油涨幅扩大，亚盘时间偏强震荡僵持。尽管当前原油市场供应仍充足，但伊朗地缘风险升级继续 支撑油价上行。一方面美国将对与伊朗开展商业往来的国家商品征收25%的关税，进一步加大对伊朗政府的压力， 促使局面升级。另一方面特朗普目前也倾向于授权对伊朗进行新的军事打击，地缘局势溢价继续走强。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN339美元/吨(环比变动-1.75美元/吨）。近期PX效益大幅提升后，国内外PX装置有所提 升，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时下游聚酯检修计划放出，基本面走弱下PXN有所回撤。但中期预期仍 较好，目前难证伪，短期聚酯开工下降幅度有限，PXN仍有支撑。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -69元/吨 元/吨(环比变动-11元/吨），PTA现货加工费327元/吨（环比变动-51元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费338元/吨（环比变动+7元/吨），近端PTA装置有所回归，聚酯检修计划放出但短期下降幅度有 限, 1月累库压力不大。中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将进一步改善。 需求方 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/1/13 | 4580. 07 | 84. 87 | 4588. 80 | 84. 71 | 1027. 18 | 21030.00 | 1024. 62 | 21030.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | ...