Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is oscillating, with geopolitical risks providing support. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are slightly boosted, but the high - low sulfur price spread remains high and is expected to take time to narrow. FU2601 is expected to run strongly in the range of 2540 - 2590, and LU2601 in the range of 3220 - 3280 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong downstream marine fuel demand, with stable buying interest this week. Some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China, and refineries are buying high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive for the first time in six weeks [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 347.77 dollars/ton with a basis of 0 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at 448.05 dollars/ton with a basis of 24 dollars/ton, indicating a flat cash - futures relationship [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by strong downstream demand, and some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China. Refineries are also purchasing high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels. Historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 are also provided [3][8].

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 TMT板块反弹 市场分析 青年失业率较高。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据，10月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇16-24岁劳动力失业率为17.3%， 25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.2%，30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.8%。对外关系方面，外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松同日本外务 省亚大局局长金井正彰举行磋商，磋商结束后，刘劲松回应相关问题时表示对磋商结果不满意，并称双方会面时 气氛严肃。海外方面，ADP就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。另 外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅上升至195.7 万人。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走低，沪指跌0.81%收于3939.81点，创业板指跌1.16%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，仅传媒、计算机、电子、食品饮料收红，煤炭、电力设备、钢铁、有色金属行业跌幅居前。当日 沪深两市成交额保持在1.9万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌1.21%报22432.85点。 IF继续增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IF、IC、IM基差回升。成交 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20251118:多位美联储官员放鹰使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-11 | 收盘价 | 929. 46 | 953. 20 | -23.74 | 948. 88 | -19. 42 | | | | | 成交量 | 307687.00 | 402784. 00 | 282349.00 | 120, 435. 00 | 95,097.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 101723.00 | -29, 322. 00 | 113597.00 | 131045.00 | -11.874.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 90426.00 | 89616.00 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 1.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 2.54%. The short - term safe - haven factor: the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted back. The safe - haven attribute: the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The monetary attribute: more Fed policymakers have hinted at caution regarding a December interest rate cut. The market is waiting for more economic data, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December remains below 50%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are facing resistance on the downside and are relatively strong. The commodity attribute: the CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Gold - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4045.10 per ounce, down $39.30 (-0.96%) from the previous day and down $78.30 (-1.90%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4072.50 per ounce, up $1.40 (0.03%) from the previous day and down $17.75 (-0.43%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 918.52 yuan per gram, down 10.94 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day and down 30.36 yuan (-3.20%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D was 915.55 yuan per gram, down 14.67 yuan (-1.58%) from the previous day and down 30.95 yuan (-3.27%) from the previous week. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and London gold was - 8.57 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. The gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.77, up 1.88 (2.42%) from the previous day and down 1.97 (-2.41%) from the previous week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex gold was 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 90,872 lots (kilograms per lot), down 10,851 lots (-10.67%) from the previous day and down 40,173 lots (-30.66%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, with a small change compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day, with the top 10 net long positions totaling 91,567.00, down 2,014.00 (27.40%). The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 18,604.00, up 251.00 (5.57%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Silver - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $50.05 per ounce, down $0.35 (-0.69%) from the previous day and down $0.36 (-0.70%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $51.06 per ounce, down $0.95 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $1.02 (2.03%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11,699.00 yuan per kilogram, down 234.00 yuan (-1.96%) from the previous day and down 181.00 yuan (-1.52%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D was 11,697.00 yuan per kilogram, down 273.00 yuan (-2.28%) from the previous day and down 168.00 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous week. - **Basis and Spread**: The difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and London silver was 35.30 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex silver was 165,805 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,836,015 lots (kilograms per lot), up 163,290 lots (3.49%) from the previous day and up 768,660 lots (18.90%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The total visible inventory was 42,209 tons, down 191 tons (-0.45%) from the previous day and down 391 tons (-0.92%) from the previous week [6]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day. The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 55,928.00, up 3,493.00 (7.77%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, the discount rate was 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.90%. The total assets of the Fed were $6,631.098 billion, up $74.55 (0.00%) from the previous week. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 4.49%, up 0.07 percentage points. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury was 2.42%, up 0.02 (0.83%) from the previous day and week. The US dollar index was 99.53, up 0.25 (0.25%) from the previous day and down 0.09 (-0.09%) from the previous week. The yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries was 0.37, up 0.04 (12.12%) from the previous day and down 0.01 (-2.78%) from the previous week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%. The year - on - year core CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%. - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points. The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 5.00 (15.63%). The existing home sales were 4.06 million units, up 5.00 (1.25%). The new home sales were 0.66 million units, up 0.10 million (15.15%). - **Consumption**: The year - on - year growth rate of retail sales was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of retail sales was 0.72%, down 0.27 percentage points. - **Industry**: The year - on - year growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.10%, up 0.47 percentage points. - **Trade**: The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 25.17%, up 1.86 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of exports was 1.79%, down 6.77 percentage points. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves were 2304.46 tons, up 2.18 tons (0.09%). The US central bank gold reserves were 8133.46 tons, unchanged. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The proportion of the US dollar was 57.80%, up 0.51 percentage points. The proportion of the euro was 19.83%, down 0.20 percentage points. The proportion of the RMB was 2.18%, down 0.00 percentage points. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, down 7.64 (-7.76%) from the previous day and down 2.12 (-2.28%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 22.38, up 2.55 (12.86%) from the previous day and up 4.78 (27.16%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index was 301.64, down 0.71 (-0.23%) from the previous day and down 5.41 (-1.76%) from the previous week [10][12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is given, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 上周在伦敦黄金反弹至 4245 美元/盎司和伦敦白银接近历史记录之后，美联 储官员表态鹰派抑制了美联储降息预期，美元汇率获得提振而金银价格随之回落； 我们判断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利 空因素，与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡， 伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突 破动能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌。但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政 ...

你最近打开股票软件时，是否也被满屏的绿色刺痛了双眼？就在上周五，日本股市上演"黑色星期五"，日经指数单日暴跌超过3%，失守17000点大关。令人 惊讶的是，这并非个案——亚洲其他市场同样哀鸿遍野。究竟是什么让全球投资者如此恐慌？这场资本"大逃亡"背后隐藏着怎样的危机预警？ 日经指数惊险一跳：不只是日本的麻烦 4月9日，东京股市迎来了"黑色星期五"。日经225指数开盘即暴跌近500点，最终收盘大跌3.93%，创下年内单日最大跌幅。仔细观察盘面，这场暴跌呈现出 三个关键特征： 首先，半导体板块成为重灾区。东京电子等芯片巨头领跌市场，股价一度下挫近8%。这直接源于台积电下调2024年半导体增长预期的连锁反应，反映出全 球科技产业链的寒意正在蔓延。 其次，避险情绪主导市场。有色金属、保险业、矿业等周期板块跌幅居前，说明投资者正在抛售风险资产。更值得注意的是，当日东京交易所33个行业板块 全军覆没，这种全面溃败在近年实属罕见。 最后，汇率波动放大跌幅。美元兑日元汇率跌破144关口，强势日元进一步压制了出口型企业的股价表现。这种股汇双杀的局面，恰是市场恐慌情绪最直观 的写照。 亚洲市场集体沦陷：避险情绪正在全球蔓延 东京 ...

Core Insights - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold nearing the $4000 mark and London spot silver falling below $50 per ounce [1][6] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also been adjusted downward, marking a four-day consecutive decline since the 14th [4] Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is down 0.55% at $4014.40 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has decreased by 1.23% to 919.42 yuan per gram, and New York gold has fallen by 1.42% to $4016.5 per ounce [1] - Major domestic brands have reported the following prices: Chow Sang Sang at 1289 yuan per gram (down 16 yuan), Chow Tai Fook at 1288 yuan per gram (down 17 yuan), Lao Miao at 1276 yuan per gram (down 13 yuan from the previous day and down 49 yuan from the high of 1325 yuan), and Lao Feng Xiang at 1285 yuan per gram (down 8 yuan from the previous day and down 40 yuan from the high of 1325 yuan) [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is cautious due to diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, contributing to a three-day decline in gold and silver prices [6] - Weak physical demand for gold in the Asian market has further exacerbated the price drop, with the market reacting to inconsistent signals from the Federal Reserve [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, entering a phase of high-level fluctuations, with market participants closely monitoring economic data for indications of Federal Reserve policy direction [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, it provides specific views such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper; rebound - pressured for zinc; high - level pressured for lead, tin, and aluminum; weak for nickel; range - bound for industrial silicon; high - level oscillating for polysilicon; and bullish for lithium carbonate [1]. Core Views - The core view of the report is that the prices of various metals are affected by multiple factors including Fed's monetary policy, industry supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic data. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies. For example, gold and silver are suitable for long - term value investment, while zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds [1]. Summary by Metal Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fell and then oscillated due to a lack of short - term trading anchors and the amplification of negative news from Fed officials. SHFE gold dropped 2.49% and COMEX gold fell 0.96%; SHFE silver declined 3.57% and COMEX silver decreased 0.01 [2][3]. - **Underlying Logic**: Fed hawkish officials' statements reduced the probability of a December rate cut, but some supported rate cuts. There was a lack of US economic data, leading to sentiment - based trading. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, a decline in the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value investors should hold their positions, while short - term investors should be cautious. Short - term attention should be paid to the support levels of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.10%, LME copper dropped 0.73%, and COMEX copper fell 1.20% [6][7]. - **Underlying Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline further in November. Consumption entered the off - season, and the global copper concentrate supply remained tight. However, high copper prices restricted demand, and the global visible copper inventory was at a historically high level [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the Fed's hawkish stance, industry hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai copper at [84500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.22%, and LME zinc dropped 0.83% [9][10]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. Consumption entered the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window opened. Zinc was in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Fed's hawkish stance and poor domestic macro - data, zinc is pressured to run weakly. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were pressured to decline, and alumina stabilized at a low level. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.53%, and LME aluminum dropped 0.38% [12][13]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and domestic production remained high. The destocking of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas slowed down, and demand entered the off - season. The alumina market was in an oversupply situation in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21200 - 22000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel rebounded at a low level. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 0.11%, and LME nickel dropped 0.40% [16][17]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation weakened. Global refined nickel inventory reached a five - year high. The stainless steel market entered the off - season, and downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [115000 - 117000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed at the daily limit, with significant position - increasing and upward movement [21]. - **Underlying Logic**: The supply - demand situation remained tight, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Terminal market demand was strong, and the impact of supply resumption was weakened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Existing long positions should take profits on rallies, and new positions should wait for opportunities to go long during pullbacks or sideways consolidation in the range of [92000 - 99000] [23].

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月18日｜澳大利亚主权财富基金警告称，全球经济面临冲击的风险正在上升，因此其已增持黄 金、主动管理型股票以及对冲基金，以作为潜在缓冲。这家管理约2610亿澳元的未来基金表示，其调整 了投资流程，以应对其认为"在全球经济体中可能更加频繁且更为剧烈出现的新型冲击风险"。报告指 出，地缘政治、经济、政策以及市场结构性变化正指向一个充满冲突、财政干预与通胀压力的未 来。"报告列举了近期在澳大利亚小盘股和日股中采取了更积极的主动管理策略，并指出，在高通胀和 地缘政治风险让市场/贝塔收益变得更加不确定的环境下，更强调管理人的能力将得到更好的回报。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]