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黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250811
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:05
目录 中线行情分析 2025.08.11-08.15 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 沪金期货整体趋势处在横盘阶段,当前可能处于开始阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格受弱非农强化降息预期+美元回落+地缘避险+资金增仓, 共同推动周内震荡偏强走势。短期走势黄金价格处在区间震荡整理,受 美元指数波动和地缘政治风险影响较大。中长期走势:若美联储在9月 开启降息周期,黄金价格有望进一步上行。同时,若地缘政治风险加剧, 黄金的避险属性将推动价格持续走高。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主,建议:735-838区间进行 网格交易。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主,建议:735-838区间进行 网格交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 5,500,500.00 10, ...
人民币黄金最新价格,黄金掉价,25年08月10日,中国黄金最新价格
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 23:25
Group 1 - The international gold price on August 10, 2025, closed at $3397.13 per ounce, showing a slight increase of $1.50 (0.04%) from the previous day, with a trading range of $3377.43 to $3408.71 [2] - The international silver price also rose, closing at $38.30 per ounce, up 0.16% (an increase of $0.06), while platinum and palladium prices fell by $13.52 (1.00%) and $34.30 (2.93%) respectively, indicating a complex differentiation within the precious metals market [2] - Domestic gold prices from major brands showed significant variation, with Lao Feng Xiang leading at 1017 CNY per gram, while prices from other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Sheng were around 1015 CNY per gram, contrasting sharply with the lower price of 793 CNY per gram in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 783.00 CNY per gram, down 0.27 CNY (0.034%) from the previous day, with fluctuations between 780.00 CNY and 784.70 CNY [4] - Historical data on gold recycling prices (purity 99.9%) showed stability, fluctuating between 753 CNY and 770 CNY per gram, although actual recycling prices may vary due to market fluctuations and regional differences [7] - Future gold price trends are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and investor sentiment, with potential long-term price increases projected to exceed $4000 or even $5000 per ounce, despite possible short-term technical corrections [8]
8月10日黄金价格跌价,今日黄金多少钱一克?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 19:43
Group 1: International Precious Metals Market - The international gold market experienced significant volatility, with gold prices closing at $3397.13 per ounce, a slight increase of $1.50 (0.04%) from the previous day, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and global economic uncertainties [1] - International silver prices also saw a modest rise to $38.30 per ounce, up $0.06 (0.16%), reflecting an overall increase in market risk appetite [1] - In contrast, the international platinum and palladium markets showed a notable downward trend, with platinum prices falling by $13.52 (1.00%) to $1340.68 per ounce, and palladium prices plummeting by $34.30 (2.93%) to $1136.80 per ounce, indicating skepticism about the investment value of these metals [2] Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - The domestic gold market in China mirrored the international price increase, with domestic gold prices at 783.5 yuan per gram, while brand premiums and market segmentation led to significant price variations among different brands [3] - Major jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook priced their gold at 1020 yuan per gram, significantly higher than the basic gold price, highlighting the impact of brand influence and product value [3] - Price discrepancies were also observed in gold bars sold by banks and jewelry stores, with prices ranging from 798.94 yuan per gram for ICBC's gold bars to 899 yuan per gram for Chow Tai Fook's investment gold bars [3] Group 3: Underlying Factors for Gold Price Surge - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in response to slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures [5][6] - Heightened geopolitical risks and increased global economic uncertainty have led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, thereby boosting demand [6] - Central banks worldwide have shifted from being net sellers to net buyers of gold since 2009, altering the supply-demand dynamics in the international gold market and supporting price increases [6] Group 4: Conclusion - The price fluctuations in the gold market on August 10, 2025, reflect a complex interplay of macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment, driven by heightened risk aversion, potential monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical uncertainties [8] - The variations in prices among different market participants, brands, and product types serve as a reminder for investors to conduct careful analysis and make rational investment decisions [8]
石油化工行业周报第415期:OPEC+持续大幅增产,关注地缘政治和季节性需求变化-20250810
EBSCN· 2025-08-10 13:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ has significantly increased production, with a planned increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, canceling a previously announced reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day [1][2] - Oil prices have declined due to OPEC+ production increases and easing geopolitical tensions, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $66.32 and $63.35 per barrel, down 4.6% and 5.8% respectively [1][2] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, particularly regarding the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents, which may influence the Russia-Ukraine conflict and oil prices [3][20] - The demand peak for oil is nearing its end, with potential oversupply risks in Q3 and Q4, as global oil demand growth is projected to be the lowest since 2009, with an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day expected in 2025 [4][21] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has fully canceled its voluntary production cuts, with a cumulative increase of 2.464 million barrels per day in 2025 [2][13] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+'s stance on its remaining production cuts, particularly the 1.65 million barrels per day reduction [2][13] Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting is anticipated to address key issues, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tariffs on Indian oil imports, which may affect oil supply dynamics [3][20] Supply and Demand Outlook - The IEA forecasts a seasonal peak in refinery output of 85.4 million barrels per day from May to August 2025, but overall oil demand remains under pressure, with growth expectations downgraded [4][21] - The report highlights the risk of inventory build-up in the latter half of the year due to supply exceeding demand [4][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive long-term outlook for major oil companies and oil service sectors, recommending specific companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [5]
8.10黄金下周最新行情策略分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 00:05
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term trend of gold prices will be driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - Trump's tariff policy may lead to further adjustments in global supply chains, increasing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices [1] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is nearly certain, which will continue to suppress the dollar and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for gold prices [1] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3410-3420 range [3] - The MACD indicator has completed an adjustment below the zero line, and a bullish crossover is expected to trigger a significant price increase [3] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds and long positions during pullbacks, with key resistance at 3410-3420 and support at 3380-3370 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions, breaking above the short-term resistance of $37.87 [5] - If silver can maintain levels above $37.87, it may challenge the long-term resistance at $39.53, which is a 14-year high [5] - The trading strategy recommends buying on pullbacks at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, while aiming for $39.00 on a breakout [5]
8.9黄金最新行情走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 01:37
Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - The potential for tariff adjustments may reshape supply chains and increase inflation, supporting gold prices [1] - The market anticipates a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could lower the dollar and bond yields, benefiting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Spot gold faced resistance at the key level of $3,400, reaching a two-week high of $3,409 before retreating due to short sellers [1] - The price trend is still forming an ascending triangle pattern, although a brief drop below the upward trend line last week has weakened this formation [1] - Technical indicators show a neutral to mildly bullish sentiment, with a daily RSI of 57 and a positive MACD, although the ADX indicates insufficient trend strength [3] Group 3 - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand, pushing silver above the short-term support level of $37.87 [5] - If silver maintains above this level, it may challenge the 14-year high of $39.53; however, if it falls below, it could drop to $36.90, with the 50-day moving average providing the next support [5] - Short-term trading recommendations suggest buying on a pullback at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, with further upside potential to $39.00 if broken [5]
突然爆发,金价大涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 13:44
Group 1 - The price of spot gold rose sharply on the afternoon of the 7th, approaching the $3400 mark, with an increase of over 0.8% during the day, while COMEX gold also saw an increase of over 0.9%, closing at $3378.56 per ounce [1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces (approximately 2300.41 tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons), marking the ninth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with weak U.S. non-farm data and geopolitical risks, has provided support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory has surged to a historical high of 36 tons, nearly doubling from the previous month, indicating active trading in the futures market and strong demand for arbitrage trading [3] - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 per ounce to $3500 per ounce, and adjusting its expected trading range from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 per ounce [3]
贵金属月报(黄金与白银):美国就业数据疲软推升降息预期,央行持续购金支撑贵金属价格-20250808
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:00
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The weak US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the continuous gold - buying by central banks supports the prices of precious metals. The prices of precious metals are likely to rise and investors are advised to buy on dips, while being vigilant about the potential rebound of US consumer - end inflation caused by additional tariffs [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data in the US - **Employment**: The number of non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, higher than the previous value. The average hourly wage rate in July was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value [4][43]. - **Inflation**: In June, the CPI and core CPI annual rates were 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in July were 4.4% and 3.6% respectively, lower than expected and the previous value [4][13]. - **Manufacturing and Services**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, lower than expected and the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the previous value and expected [34]. - **Housing**: The 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates at the end of July decreased to 5.85% and 6.72% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in June decreased month - on - month [38][41]. - **Retail and Consumption**: The retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the previous value and expected. The personal consumption expenditure month - on - month rate in June was flat with expectations but higher than the previous value [50][57]. - **Durable Goods**: The new orders for durable goods month - on - month rate in June was - 9.3%, higher than expected but lower than the previous value [53]. - **Debt and Finance**: The US outstanding public debt increased by $61.2 billion compared with last month. The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was about $84.4 billion. The OFR financial stress index decreased [21][22][27]. 3.2 Central Bank Policies in Other Countries - **European Central Bank**: The eurozone's July CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, getting out of the technical recession. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates at most once in the second half of the year. The ECB is reducing its balance sheet [61][63]. - **Bank of England**: The UK's CPI and core CPI annual rates in June were 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [66]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of 2025 has cooled [69]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market - **Geopolitical and Central Bank Buying**: The global geopolitical risk index decreased in July, but uncertainties remain. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month [72][75]. - **ETF and Futures Positions**: The US gold ETF volatility index increased. The non - commercial long - short position ratio of COMEX gold futures increased, while that of COMEX silver futures decreased [77][82][85]. - **Inventory**: The gold inventories in SHFE and COMEX increased, while the silver inventories in SHFE decreased and those in SGE and COMEX increased [88]. - **Price Ratios**: The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is at a relatively high level, and the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" are also high. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities of the "gold - silver ratio" and long - position opportunities of the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" [91][94].
大越期货原油早报-20250808
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight news that Trump and Putin will meet in the coming days has significantly increased the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing oil prices to drop again. Oil prices are approaching the lower limit of the previous range. India may shift some of its import share to the Middle East due to the threat of sanctions on Russian oil, increasing the supply tightness in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has raised its official export prices to keep prices firm during the peak season, which may support domestic crude oil prices. The medium - term price still has upward support. Short - term, pay attention to the results of the Trump - Putin meeting, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate greatly. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium and long term, wait for the end of the peak season and an increase in supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days; the US President Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil; OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics. The situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.38 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.81 per barrel. The basis was 11.14 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending August 1, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.845 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.591 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.453 million barrels. As of August 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, unchanged, which is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Russia - US Summit**: Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit of the two heads of state in the near future. The market's reaction to this news has led to a decline in oil prices. WTI crude oil has fallen below $64 per barrel [5]. - **US Crude Oil Exports**: In July, US crude oil exports dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 3.1 million barrels per day, due to domestic supply shortages and price increases of WTI futures [5]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The US may extend the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and may also consider tariffs on China [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent crude oil decreased by $0.46 (- 0.69%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), SC crude oil increased by $0.10 (0.02%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.95 (- 1.35%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, and other crude oils in the spot market have changed. UK Brent decreased by $1.60 (- 2.30%), WTI decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), etc. [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show changes in US crude oil inventories. For example, for the week ending August 1, API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [18].
黄金今日行情走势要点分析(2025.8.8)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 00:37
Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Global trade tensions are increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with Trump's tariffs on imports raising the average U.S. import tariff to its highest level in a century, leading to heightened inflation and economic slowdown concerns [2] - U.S. labor market data shows weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, and the market is increasingly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability exceeding 91% [2] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, particularly in the Middle East and due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is further enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has maintained a strong upward trend, with key support levels at 3380, 3371, and 3365, while resistance is noted at 3432 [5][8] - On the four-hour chart, gold is likely in the fifth wave of an upward trend, with critical support at 3350/3349, and the market should be monitored for potential resistance at previous highs of 3438/3439 [7][8]