地缘政治风险

Search documents
刚刚!黄金,大跳水!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-30 11:05
【导读】黄金大跳水 大家好,刚刚创下新高的黄金,突然大跳水了。 一起看看发生了什么事情。 华盛顿的僵局是提振黄金避险吸引力的最新动因,此外还有对特朗普贸易战经济影响的担忧以及地缘政 治紧张。黄金今年以来已累计上涨约45%,有望创下自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 周一,国会两院领袖与特朗普的会面未能就政府的短期融资达成协议。这加剧了对政府关门的担忧,而 关门可能会阻碍经济数据的发布——使投资者无法获得评估美国经济所需的关键信息。 各国央行的购金需求以及美联储恢复降息也为金价提供了支撑。高盛集团和德意志银行认为金价仍有进 一步上涨空间。 瑞银周二在一份报告中称,对黄金市场目前倾向于看涨情景,预计到2026年年中金价将升至每盎司4200 美元。该行指出,美元走弱、央行大举购买黄金以及ETF投资增加等因素对金价构成利好,同时建议黄 金在投资组合中的配置比例为5%左右。瑞银强调,黄金与股票和债券的关联度较低,可作为对冲通胀 和地缘政治风险的工具,同时提醒投资者考虑与价格波 现货白银的价格也同步下跌。 萨克索银行商品策略师奥勒·斯洛特·汉森表示:"在整个9月不间断的上涨之后,我认为目前出现了一些 月末获利了结,我也怀疑 ...
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250930
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 10:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].
南华期货2025年度原油四季度展望:基本面偏空,多重支撑下难深跌
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 10:12
南华期货2025年度原油四季度展望 2025年9月30日 ——基本面偏空,多重支撑下难深跌 首先,我们认为,四季度原油基本面偏空,但多重支撑下难深跌 ,主要逻辑如下: 1、宏观层面上:经济暂未触及衰退阈值,预防式降息提供流动性支撑 当前全球经济总体呈现 "弱复苏但未陷衰退" 的格局,在此背景下,9 月美联储实施的25BP降息更偏向 "预防 式宽松",核心目的是对冲经济下行风险而非应对衰退,后续10月、12 月各25BP降息的预期将直接降低商品 市场持有成本,为原油提供流动性支撑。从历史规律看,预防式降息周期中,原油往往先受益于 "资金入场" 而非 "需求改善"——2019 年美联储预防式降息期间,WTI 原油在降息落地后 1 个月内涨幅达 8.5%,当前 WTI 非商业净多头持仓仍处 2018 年以来低位,资金回补空间显著。若后续经济数据未出现衰退信号,流动 性支撑将持续托底油价,难出现因宏观悲观导致的大幅下跌。 2、需求端:宏观未衰退下需求延续韧性,成品油裂解与补库形成双重支撑 美欧成品油裂解高位、库存偏低,炼厂产能受限——欧洲四季度开工或下滑,俄制裁制约进口,印中东难外 供;且 Q4 欧洲冬季偏冷,推升取 ...
能源化工周报:供应压力加剧-20250930
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 07:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol (MEG) price showed a weak trend this week due to weaker - than - expected demand and increased supply from new device launches. The supply - side pressure will continue to increase, and the supply - demand structure is expected to weaken, leading to a downward - trending market price. - Next week, the cost side may see oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and cooling expectations. The supply side will face greater pressure as more capacity is set to restart than to be under maintenance in October. The demand side is expected to have a light sales performance during and after the holiday. Port inventory is likely to rise slightly in the short term. - Overall, MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main View - This week, MEG prices were weak. The reasons were weaker - than - expected demand and new device launches. In September, the downstream polyester and weaving industries had a slow start - up speed. There are still multiple new devices planned for trial runs and some long - shut - down devices are set to restart, increasing supply - side pressure. - Next week, on the cost side, geopolitical disturbances may boost oil prices, but cooling expectations could lead to a fluctuating oil price. On the supply side, more capacity will restart than be under maintenance in October. On the demand side, a 1.1 - million - ton polyester device in South China is restarting and ramping up, with no other major devices planned for restart or maintenance. Some downstream industries plan to reduce their loads during the holiday. In terms of port inventory, imports are expected to be concentrated around the National Day, and port shipments will decline during the holiday, so short - term port inventory may rise slightly. - MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: New device launches suppressed the futures market. This week, the trading volume was 544,000 lots, and the open interest was 326,000 lots (a decrease of 31,000 lots). On September 29, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.38%. The settlement price on September 29 was 4,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.56% [8][11][13]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4,363 yuan/ton on September 22, and the low - end was 4,270 yuan/ton on September 23. In different regions, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan decreased by 31 yuan/ton, 61.8 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively. The foreign - market price was 510.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 81.25 yuan/ton, compared with 100 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 85 - 110 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.3 MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Device Operation**: From September 24 - 29, the comprehensive MEG operating rate was 69.98%, compared with 70.80% from September 17 - 23. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 74.39%, 63.49%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, the Zhonghai Shell device returned to normal after a short - term load fluctuation due to an upstream device failure, and the Fujian United and Sanjiang devices adjusted their loads slightly [19][22][24]. - **Production Profit**: The price of thermal coal increased slightly, while the MEG spot price continued to weaken. This week, the profit of coal - based MEG was further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production were - 1,532.58 yuan/ton, 295.13 yuan/ton, and - 128.15 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,495.10 yuan/ton, 354.69 yuan/ton, and - 139 US dollars/ton in the previous period [31][33]. - **Port Inventory**: There will be many foreign - market arrivals during the holiday, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the MEG port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. As of September 25, the MEG port inventory was 398,500 tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 8.53%. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangyin, Taicang, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Changshu changed by 14,300 tons, - 2,000 tons, 10,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and - 4,000 tons respectively [35][37]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The slow progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations poses potential support to the oil market due to geopolitical and supply risks [43]. - **Supply and Demand of Downstream Products**: - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 88.35%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.49%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.63%, 1.26%, and 2.23% respectively. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market decreased by 0.82%, and the average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region decreased by 0.84%. - As the long holiday approaches, the sentiment of the polyester downstream has changed, leading to an increase in procurement and polyester sales. From September 22 - 28, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be over 70%. - Due to polyester promotions, downstream enterprises stocked up, and the inventory of polyester filament decreased this week. As of September 25, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 18.80 days, 25.70 days, and 29.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber remained stable, and the inventory days of polyester chips decreased by 0.69 days [47][56][60].
AvaTrade爱华每日市场报告 2025-09-29
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 06:40
AvaTrade爱华每日市场报告:全球多数主要股市延续涨势,在美国消费者支出数据意外上行的提振下,市场对经济韧性的担忧有所缓解,风险情绪整体回 暖。美股三大指数小幅收高,道指与罗素2000指数表现尤为强劲,欧洲市场也普遍录得上涨。大宗商品方面,原油和黄金价格双双走高,反映出投资者在供 应风险、通胀预期及地缘政治不确定性之间的复杂权衡。 | Today: Sep 29 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date | 8:20am | Currency Impact | | | | Mon Sep 29 | 8:00am | EUR | L | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | | | D3:00pm | USD | | Pending Home Sales m/m | | | 6:15pm | USD | U | President Trump Speaks | | ا More | | | | | 1. 前一天总结 – 2025 年 9 月 26 日星期五 2. 今天的动向 – 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 市场亮点 • 标准普尔50 ...
大越期货原油早报-20250930
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:24
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511: 1.基本面:美国总统特朗普周一获得了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对美国发起的加沙和平提议的支持,但 哈马斯是否会接受该计划仍是个问题;美国总统特朗普与民主党对手在白宫举行旨在避免政府停摆的 一场会议中,似乎没有取得什么进展;三位知情人士透露,OPEC+很可能在10月5日的会议上批准新一 轮原油产量上调,幅度至少为13.7万桶/日,该组织有意借此进一步夺回市场份额;偏空 2.基差:9月29日,阿曼原油现货价为69.48元/桶,卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.54元/桶,基差24.46元/ 桶,现货升水期货;偏多 3.库 ...
国投期货综合晨报-20250930
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:20
综合晨报 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年09月30日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价大跌,布伦特12合约跌2.98%。供应端处于伊拉克库尔德复运、OPEC+进一步增产带 来的即期增量与地缘风险并存的多空交织状态,但总体石油的累库进程依然明确,三季度累积幅度 2.4%包括原油累库0.5%、成品油累库5.5%,且随着炼厂开工率的季节性回落,上周累库结构已向上 游原油集中。油价上行至震荡区间高位后进一步走强的空间有限,但十一前后外围市场围绕俄乌、 伊朗的地缘犹动仍在,继续持有期货空头与看涨期权相结合的保护性策略。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势表现。本周关注美国政府停摆的解决进展以及非农在内的一系列关键数据。美 国劳工统计局发布政府停摆应急计划,将在政府停摆期间暂停所有运营,不发布经济数据。贵金属 中期偏强趋势未改但国庆期间波动风险较高,建议离场观望。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价扩大涨势,贵金属提振交易情绪,节中市场关注政府关门风险,一旦僵局可能担追非 农就业等数据公布。铜市继续消化Grasberg基本铁席两个季度供应对平衡表的影响。国内观铜上调 到82210元,上海贴水5元,节前SMM社库 ...
中辉能化观点-20250930
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:08
中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | | 地缘扰动 | VS | OPEC+扩产,原油波动加剧。近期乌克兰接连袭击俄罗斯石 | 油出口港口和炼厂,油价下方存在支撑;库存方面,美国库存下降,油价 | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 下方有支撑;供需方面,OPEC+继续扩产,原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升, | 谨慎看空 | | | | | | | | | | ★ | 油价下行压力较大,重点关注 | 60 | 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。 | 策略:中长期向下,短期存地缘不确定性,空单继续持有同时购买看涨期 | | | | | | | | 权。 | 成本端原油转弱,仓单量处于历史高位压制盘面。成本端原油当前不确定 | | | | | | | | | | | 性较强,OPEC+增产预期压低油价;LPG | 估值修复,主力合约基差回归至 | LPG | 谨慎看空 ...
贵金属日评:美国政府关门危机及地缘政治风险支撑贵金属价格-20250930
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:41
王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 電源期 | 贵金属日评20250930:美国政府关门危机及地缘政治风险支撑贵金属价格 | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 2025-09-29 2025-09-26 2025-09-23 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | 收盘价 | 866. 52 856. 06 855. 44 10. 46 11.08 成交重 333591.00 270430.00 258495.00 63.161.00 75, 096. 00 期货活跃合约 持仓重 263220.00 264305.00 271554.00 -1, 085. 00 -8, 334. 00 | | 库存(十克) | 68628.00 65826. 00 59013.00 2, 802. 00 9. 615. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 862. 50 852. 90 849. 58 9. 60 12. 92 (元/兄) | | 现货沪金T+D | 成交堂 61916.00 50644. 00 53156.00 11, 272. 00 8, 760. 00 持仓量 ...
黄金,又见证历史!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 01:57
【导读】现货黄金突破3840美元再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 李智 现货黄金再创新高! 现货黄金再创新高 9月30日早盘,现货黄金再创新高,一度升破3840美元/盎司。 | ( W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 3839.120 | 昨信 3832.935 | | | 总量 | | 0 | | +6.185 | 3832.662 +0.16% 开盘 | | | 现于 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 3840.589 持 ਦੇ 0 | | | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3825.370 増 色 0 | | | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周K | | | 月K | 电子 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 3840.589 | | | | 0.20% | | | | | | | | | -- 3839.470 | | | | | | | | 动- 3839.120 | | ...