2025 年 12 月 17 日 开源晨会 1217 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.316 | | 美容护理 | 0.664 | | 社会服务 | 0.126 | | 食品饮料 | -0.018 | | 交通运输 | -0.421 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -2.952 | | 综合 | -2.81 | | 有色金属 | -2.809 | | 电力设备 | -2.658 | | 传媒 | -2.414 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点——宏观经济专题-20251216 供需：建筑开工维持弱势，工业开工边际走弱，需求走弱 1.建筑开工：开工率维持历史 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement dispatch, and grinding mills at historical lows[1] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, particularly in steel and automotive[1] - Demand for construction materials, automobiles, and home appliances is weak, with rebar and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached or are approaching historical highs, driven by expanding dollar liquidity and industrial activity[2] - The recent two weeks saw fluctuations in oil prices, while copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends[2] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some materials like cement and asphalt declining in price[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in 30 major cities have decreased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 21% and 35% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[4] Export and Liquidity - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 2.1% year-on-year for the first two weeks of December[5] - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 1.4134 trillion yuan[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly down from 3.2% in 2025, indicating a continued weak recovery trend[9] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, a slight increase from 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see declines in growth rates[12] - The weak U.S. dollar, which fell over 8% from January to November 2025, is anticipated to continue influencing global capital reallocation in 2026[25] China Economic Growth - China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in real terms and 4.9% in nominal terms in 2026, supported by technology and consumption sectors[1] - Fixed asset investment in China is expected to recover, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showing signs of improvement[31] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, indicating resilience in consumer spending[38] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Cash, reflecting a preference for equities amid a weak dollar environment[1] - The bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a favorable range, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, are projected to reach new highs[1] - Currency funds are likely to focus more on liquidity safety, resembling a substitute for demand deposits in investor asset allocation[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies, escalation of trade tensions, and rising fiscal security risks in major economies globally[1]

Market Overview - On December 16, the A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3815 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3824.81 points, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51% to 12914.67 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,483 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Consumer, diversified finance, automotive, and real estate sectors performed well, while precious metals, shipbuilding, power equipment, and wind power sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with commercial retail, education, diversified finance, and food and beverage sectors showing the highest gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.89 times and 48.54 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with short-term focus on aerospace, consumer, automotive, and diversified finance sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas recession impacting domestic economic recovery, domestic policy and economic recovery progress falling short of expectations, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[4]

[Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 中电联口径截至 12 月 11 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比-8.2%（11 月同比-7.2%）。 中电联指出"电力及非电需求延续疲软行情"，"从产量来看，整体稳定，局部微调，整体维持在历史同期偏高 水平"。 1根据中电联电力行业燃料统计，截至12月11日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比下降8.2%， 本年累计发电量同比下降 3.9%。燃煤电厂本月累计供热量同比增长 0.8%，本年累计供热量同比增长 5.8%。燃 煤电厂耗煤量本月累计同比下降 7.3%，本年累计同比下降 4.6%。燃煤电厂煤炭库存低于去年同期 107 万吨， 库存可用天数高于上年同期 2.1 天。 另据 Wind 数据（若未特别注明，报告数据均来自 Wind）：截至 12 月第二周，三峡水库站（入库）流量均值 同比-9.2%（前值 48.0%），历史上三峡水电站流量与全国水力发电同比存在高相关性。 工业开工率涨跌互现，上游钢铁高炉开工率同比低于前值，下游江浙织机开工率同比高于前值。截至 12 月第 二周，全国 247 家高炉开工率（月均值，下同）同比回落 0.7pc ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate decreased to 71.90%, down by 0.76% from the previous week[8] - The blast furnace operating rate fell to 78.61%, a decline of 1.53% compared to the prior week[8] - The operating rate for full steel tires increased to 64.07%, up by 0.57% from the previous week[8] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue surged to 211,100,000 CNY, an increase of 164,800,000 CNY from the previous week[8] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 77,354.4 units, down by 1,207.15 units from the previous week[8] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars dropped to 100,053.7 units, a decline of 1,767.10 units compared to the previous week[8] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 200.86 million square meters, an increase of 24.09% from the previous week[8] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 2,921.84 million square meters, up by 181.29 million square meters from the previous week[8] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.52%, up by 0.52% from the previous week[8] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose to 1,506.46, an increase of 108.83 from the previous week[9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products improved, with the wholesale price index for agricultural products at 130.36, up by 1.38 from the previous week[9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a decline in commodity prices, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 298.29, down by 7.68 from the previous week[9] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume increased to 989.41 million trips, up by 27.52 million from the previous week[9] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) was 12,096.14, a decrease of 206.43 from the previous week[9]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 12 月 16 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zh ...

2025年11月宏观经济数据 冠通期货研究咨询部 日期 2025年12月15日 宏观数据 2025年12月15日，国家统计局公布11月宏观经济数据。总的来看，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战 。下阶段，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会、中央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩 大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食 播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1% ...

Economic Growth and Trends - In November, the growth rate of the real economy continued to slow, with demand weakening faster than supply[1] - The expected economic growth for this year remains around 5%, supported by better-than-expected import and export data[1][6] - The central economic work conference set a target for next year's economic growth at approximately 5% with moderate policy stimulus anticipated[1][6] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, significantly below market expectations[2] - Retail sales of goods decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 1.0%, with notable declines in jewelry (-29.1 percentage points to 8.5%) and automotive sales (-1.7 percentage points to -8.3%)[2][10] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, which is lower than the market expectation of -2.3%[3] - Real estate development investment fell by 1.2 percentage points to -15.9%, and new construction area dropped by 0.7 percentage points to -20.5%[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1 percentage point to -1.1%[3] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% in November, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices[5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, aligning with market expectations[4][20]