相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超 预期扰动；政策超预期变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期收紧；海外波动 加剧。 责任编辑：王珂 来源：中原证券股份有限公司 投资要点： A 股市场综述 周五（01 月23 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在4143 点 附近遭遇阻力，随后股指维持震荡，盘中光伏设备、能源金属、电池以及航天航空等行业表现较好；航 空机场、保险、银行以及船舶制造等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业 板市场周五震荡上扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 后市研判及投资建议 周五A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在4143 点附近遭遇阻 力，随后股指维持震荡，盘中光伏设备、能源金属、电池以及航天航空等行业表现较好；航空机场、保 险、银行以及船舶制造等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周五 震荡上扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均市盈率分别为 16.88 倍、53. ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The zinc ore's visible inventory is marginally accumulating, and the TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of zinc smelting has slightly improved, while the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the Shanghai-London ratio, the situation of element outflow has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data released on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double-loose policy has not yet been reflected in the economic data. Before the release of the next round of economic data, the non-ferrous sector may enter a period of volatile consolidation, during which the trading focus of Shanghai zinc may shift from strong macro to weak reality [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.77% at 24,600 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 223,000 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S rose 40 to $3,239/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total open interest of 228,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,620 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 40 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 25 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 30,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was recorded at 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was recorded at 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was recorded at 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was recorded at 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was recorded at 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 02 - Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16] 03 - Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of -7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.86%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 462,600 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.15% and a month - on - month change of -10.44%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 5,318,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 30.4%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 496,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.82% and a month - on - month change of -8.8%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 6,063,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.5% [25][27] - **Zinc Concentrate**: The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 618,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton [11][27][29] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of -7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was -16,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -148.9% and a month - on - month change of -31.5%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 242,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -48.9%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 536,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -2.3% and a month - on - month change of -6.3%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 7,076,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.2% [33][35] 04 - Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Industries**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11][39] - **Apparent Demand**: In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 553,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -8.7% and a month - on - month change of -8.5%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,960,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [41] 05 - Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report presents multiple charts related to zinc ingot factory inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [45][47][49] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a shortage of -16,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a surplus of 116,000 tons. In October 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55] 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 30,000 tons. On January 22, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton [63] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [66] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 positions in Shanghai zinc were only slightly net long. For LME zinc, the net long position of investment funds increased, while the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [69]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The 2025 economic performance achieved a GDP growth target of 5%, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.5% in Q4[33] - The economic activity index at the beginning of 2026 is at a historical high for the same period, influenced by increased policy efforts[13] - The macroeconomic environment shows a trend of "export growth, stable industry, and slow investment and consumption"[35] Group 2: Policy Measures - Significant policy measures have been introduced at the start of 2026, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for elderly care services[21] - The number of policies introduced by various ministries has increased significantly in January 2026 compared to previous years[14] - The fiscal spending growth rate for social welfare has become clearer, indicating a focus on consumer and livelihood sectors[19] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The issuance of special bonds for infrastructure projects in Q1 2026 is lower than expected, indicating a need for increased efforts in this area[25] - The proportion of special bonds directed towards infrastructure has weakened compared to the same period last year[28] - More major projects are expected to be launched in 2026, with an increase in the number of provincial key projects announced[22]

证券日报网讯 1月23日，兴业银行在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，我行已披露业绩快报。股价受宏 观经济、行业情况、市场偏好等多重因素影响。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, policy releases positive signals, but corporate earnings haven't improved significantly. Be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock indices. The US - EU trade tension eases, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is maintained. However, due to uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and Iran situations, beware of profit - taking pressure after the rapid rise of gold [38]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end. The support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade situations. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, narrowing the space for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. In this case, gold may face a deep adjustment [38]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, achieving the annual development target. From January to December, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, indicating weak endogenous economic growth and insufficient demand as the main contradiction [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.5% (previous value 8%), and M1 was 3.8% (previous value 4.9%). The growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 further widened [19]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 26985.57 billion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank conducted 1181 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 229.5 billion yuan [21]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - In the third quarter of the US, real GDP increased by 4.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. It shows that the US economy is slowly recovering, but inflation remains high [24]. - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory slowed down, and COMEX gold inventory in New York decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [37]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - In 2025, China's economic recovery foundation is not solid. The government has strengthened counter - cyclical adjustment policies. Although there are positive policy signals, corporate earnings haven't improved significantly, and stock indices may fluctuate in the short term. The easing of US - EU trade tensions and the maintenance of the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index. Due to uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and Iran situations, gold has risen rapidly and reached a new high [38].

类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 格陵兰岛风波迷雾重重 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国达成 2025 年经济增长目标 2025 年中国实际 GDP 同比增长 5%，持平于 2024 年且顺利完成年度经济增长 目标；2025 年名义 GDP 略超过 140 万亿元，同比增长 4%，为 2021 年以来的最低 值；GDP 平减系数同比萎缩 0.96%，萎缩程度较 2024 年扩大 0.16 个百分点。2025 年最终消费拉动 GDP 同比 2.6 个百分点，拉动率较 2024 年提升 0.37 个百分 ...

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures in the US increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the growth rate of goods consumption reaching its highest level since the second half of 2025[1] - The US industrial output in December showed unexpected growth, and the previously announced annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised upward, marking the highest level in two years[1] - The US economy demonstrates strong endogenous momentum as of the end of 2025, supported by wages and savings despite persistent inflation[1] Group 2: European Economic Conditions - By December 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate in Europe fell below 2%, indicating a continued easing of pressure, primarily driven by labor costs and year-end consumption peaks in the service sector[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current monetary policy stance appropriate but retains flexibility for adjustments[2] - Uncertainties regarding the Greenland issue between major European countries and the US have temporarily decreased, leading to a slight increase in global risk appetite[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - In Q4 2025, China's actual GDP growth rate slowed due to a high base effect, but the annual economic growth target was still met, with a pattern of stronger supply than demand and stronger external demand than internal demand[2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with new policy measures from the central bank likely to stabilize government-led investment projects[2] - The State Council emphasizes improving long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, with new stimulus policies including loan interest subsidies and special guarantee plans being introduced[2] Group 4: Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially disrupting market risk appetite due to uncertainties in the global economic and trade landscape[2] - Economic and policy changes exceeding expectations could lead to adjustments in related policies as the domestic economy undergoes a transformation[2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, China's economy achieved a growth target of around 5% despite challenges, but it also faced structural pressures. In 2026, the economy is expected to grow at 4.8%, likely showing a "low - then - high" trend. To achieve the economic growth target in 2026, comprehensive macro - policies are needed, including fiscal, monetary, and various industry - specific policies [3][7][48] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review: A Year of "Reconstruction" Amid Interwoven Multiple Variables - **Growth Trend**: In 2025, China's economy showed a "high - then - low" pattern. The real GDP grew 5.0% year - on - year, with nominal growth at 4.0%. Final consumption contributed over half (52%) to GDP growth, but there is room for improvement. Investment weakened, with capital formation contribution declining [9] - **Economic Structure**: The economy maintained a "strong supply, weak demand" pattern. Industrial production grew at about 6%. "Two - new" policies supported the economy in the first half, but domestic demand lacked momentum in the second half. Investment, especially fixed - asset investment, declined, with real estate and infrastructure investment hitting new lows [10] - **Structural Reconstruction**: - **Macroeconomic Narrative**: DeepSeek's technological breakthrough led to a re - evaluation of Chinese assets, especially technology assets, and changed the economic growth narrative [17] - **Export Resilience**: Exports were affected by US tariffs but remained resilient. The export support shifted from Europe and the US to emerging markets, with high - value - added capital and intermediate goods being the main export items [20] - **New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion**: The real estate industry continued to adjust, gradually returning to its livelihood nature. New kinetic energy, such as high - tech industries, played an increasing role in economic growth. "Anti - involution" governance promoted the transformation of emerging industries [25][26] 3.2 Four Constraints on the Economy's Path to a "New Equilibrium" - **Global Political and Economic Landscape**: The global political and economic landscape is evolving rapidly. Sino - US competition intensifies in non - trade areas, and geopolitical frictions with non - US countries are increasing [32] - **Micro - entity Behavior**: The behavior of micro - entities has not emerged from the "post - pandemic" paradigm. Residents' preventive savings are likely to be normalized, and enterprises' investment willingness is still low. Local governments face fiscal and debt constraints [32][35][36] - **New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion**: The transformation from old to new kinetic energy brings downward pressure, fiscal, and employment gaps. New industries are not yet able to fully replace old ones [40] - **High - quality Supply**: The supply of high - quality products and services is insufficient, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand and restricting the release of domestic demand [44] 3.3 2026 Outlook: Expected Economic Growth of 4.8%, with Potential Marginal Improvement in Macro - micro Temperature Difference - **Overall Economic Growth**: In 2026, the economy is expected to show a "low - then - high" trend. Under the neutral scenario, the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, with quarterly rates of 4.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%, and 4.9% respectively [7][48] - **Sector - specific Outlook**: - **Production**: Industrial production is expected to remain resilient, with an expected 5.5% increase in industrial added value. The service industry is also expected to grow, with the service production index rising 5.6% [52] - **Exports**: Although there is a base effect, exports are supported by multiple factors. With potential "tactical" easing of Sino - US trade frictions and demand from emerging markets, the export growth rate is expected to be 4.5% [53] - **Investment**: Investment is likely to stop falling and stabilize. Infrastructure and emerging industries will be the main drivers, with overall investment growth expected to reach 2% and narrow - sense infrastructure investment growing by 8% [57] - **Real Estate**: In the short term, the real estate market is still in the inventory - clearing stage, but investment decline is expected to narrow to 10% [58] - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to have a weak recovery, with total social retail sales growing by 4%. Service consumption has greater growth potential, while commodity consumption is restricted by policy and base effects [60] - **Prices**: The effects of "anti - involution" governance will continue to show, and PPI and CPI are expected to have a mild recovery, potentially improving the macro - micro temperature difference [62] 3.4 Policy Recommendations for Achieving the 2026 Economic Growth Target - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: In 2026, the deficit rate should be kept above 4%, and the general fiscal expenditure may reach about 15 trillion yuan. There may be one interest rate cut and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts [7][67][69] - **Expanding Domestic Demand**: For consumption, expand subsidies to service consumption, promote full implementation of holidays, and improve the service consumption environment. For investment, play the role of government investment and use the national venture capital guidance fund to attract private capital [70][71] - **Increasing High - quality Supply**: Encourage innovation in products and services, and relax market access to increase high - quality supply [74] - **Cultivating New Kinetic Energy**: Focus on key "choke - point" technologies, strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation, and promote the cluster - based development of strategic emerging industries [74] - **Stabilizing the Real Estate Market**: Improve the "commercial housing + affordable housing" dual - track system, and promote the coordinated development of supply and demand in the real estate market [76] - **Debt Management**: Optimize the debt structure and efficiency, and build a long - term debt management mechanism [77] - **External Response**: Implement a more diversified and in - depth opening - up strategy, expand the foreign trade "circle of friends", and support enterprises to go global [79] - **Reform and System - building**: Promote economic, fiscal, and tax system reforms, and release institutional dividends [81]

1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives specific outlooks for different commodities: - **Weakening prices with attention on downstream restocking rhythm**: Iron ore [2][5] - **Wide - range fluctuations due to raw material market disturbances**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [2][9] - **Wide - range fluctuations with rising cost expectations**: Ferrosilicon [2][14] - **Wide - range fluctuations with slight raw material price adjustments**: Silicomanganese [2][14] - **Weakening oscillations under both macro and micro influences**: Coke, Coking coal [2][17] - **Short - term weak price adjustments due to weak market sentiment**: Steam coal [2][21] - **Low - level oscillations**: Logs [2][23] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends and fundamentals of various black series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price data, trading volume, open interest, and relevant macro and industry news for each commodity, along with trend strength indicators, all of which are used to support the specific outlooks for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (- 0.70%). The open interest decreased by 11,163 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%); the HC2605 contract was 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). Rebar trading volume was 633,661 hands, with an open interest increase of 1,023 hands; hot - rolled coil trading volume was 335,123 hands, with an open interest decrease of 36,985 hands. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: BHP's first - half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted some iron ore price cuts in annual contract negotiations with China. Steel production, inventory, and import data for December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [9][12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,556 yuan/ton and 5,542 yuan/ton respectively; silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,748 yuan/ton and 5,786 yuan/ton respectively. Some spot prices and spreads changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 21, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese price ranges in different regions were reported. In 2025, the cumulative manganese ore imports increased by 12.04% year - on - year. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [15][16]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 contract for coking coal and the J2605 contract for coke were 1,129 yuan/ton and 1,683.5 yuan/ton respectively, both with slight increases. Some spot prices and basis values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 21, CCI metallurgical coal index data were released. As of now, the total coke inventory at two ports in Shandong increased by 700,000 tons week - on - week. Due to factors such as the slowdown in coal price increases and steel mill iron - water production cuts, the market sentiment weakened, and port coke prices declined [17]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Steam Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The prices at production areas, ports, overseas, and the January long - term agreement prices showed different degrees of change, with some prices declining [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China's raw coal production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Coal imports in December 2025 far exceeded expectations. In 2026, Indonesia's expected coal production quota is expected to be tightened [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than that in November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].