Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) signaled important adjustments in monetary policy and exchange rate management for the second half of the year, reflecting a more flexible approach in response to complex economic conditions [1][4] - The second quarter meeting emphasized maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy while enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual function of monetary policy tools [5][6] Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for the second quarter, with a target of around 4.7% for the second half to meet the annual growth goal, indicating manageable pressure under current policy measures [5] - Market analysts expect further policy adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, to support liquidity and economic stability [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting highlighted the need to implement existing financial policies effectively to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing housing stock and land [9][10] - Data from January to May showed a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area and sales revenue by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, although some first- and second-tier cities experienced growth [9] Domestic Circulation Strategy - The PBOC emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic focus, coordinating supply and demand, and enhancing macro policy coordination to stimulate economic recovery [11] - Recent policies included lowering interest rates on housing provident fund loans and optimizing capital market support tools, with a total of 800 billion yuan allocated for securities and stock repurchase financing [11] Exchange Rate Management - The second quarter meeting shifted its focus from strict measures to enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [12] - Historical data suggests the yuan may be entering a new appreciation cycle, which could help stabilize the global monetary system and support economic growth [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current soda ash market has sufficient supply and weak demand. The two major downstream industries, float glass and photovoltaic glass, are in a difficult situation, with inventory on the rise. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and soda ash prices may still face downward pressure in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 25, 2025, for the soda ash 2508 contract, the latest price was 1171, up 3 with a 0.26% increase, the open interest was 11699, down 29, and the trading volume was 2655. Its opening price was 1166, the highest was 1173, the lowest was 1159, and the settlement price was 1166 [4]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the latest price was 1166, up 1 with a 0.09% increase, the open interest was 1561404, down 7874, and the trading volume was 953401. Its opening price was 1158, the highest was 1168, the lowest was 1152, and the settlement price was 1160 [4]. - For the soda ash 2601 contract, the latest price was 1159, up 2 with a 0.17% increase, the open interest was 557916, up 2848, and the trading volume was 125828. Its opening price was 1150, the highest was 1160, the lowest was 1146, and the settlement price was 1154 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On June 25, domestic soda ash enterprises' quotes remained at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of light soda ash was around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream delivered price of heavy soda ash to end - users was about 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply**: Since June, the weekly output of soda ash has remained above 700,000 tons, with significant supply pressure. Although some plants have maintenance plans in the medium - term approaching summer, there are few new maintenance plans in the short term, and the overall supply is at a high level [5]. - **Demand**: The involution in the photovoltaic glass industry has led to production cuts. The price rebound of float glass is based on the expectation of supply tightening. Whether the unplanned cold repairs are realized or not, it is unfavorable for the demand of soda ash. In addition, in the demand for light soda ash, the support from lithium carbonate and daily - use glass is limited, and the substitution ratio of caustic soda is less than 5%, with limited incremental demand. Overall, the demand recovery of downstream industries for soda ash is weak, and procurement is mostly for rigid needs, with a cautious market performance [5]. - **Macro - level**: There are signs of easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the overnight crude oil futures price has declined. Although the State Council executive meeting has made targeted arrangements for the real estate market recently, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is still declining without an obvious turning point, and its role in driving the demand for the glass industry downstream of soda ash is not clear [5][6].

6月20日，上海浦东新区一多用途组合用地出让，最终溢价41.68%成交。至此，上海2025年五批次土拍收官，6宗地块总成交金额达212.57亿 元。 据了解，该地块吸引了4家竞买人参与竞价，经过67轮竞价触发中止价，4家竞买人全部参与竞"高品质建设"指标，很快商品住宅装修标准指标到达上限值4500元/ ㎡，进入公共服务设施指标竞报，触达上限值5220㎡后，1家竞买人退出竞价，其余3家竞买人继续竞报高端人才住房配建比例指标并触达上限值2%，仅2家竞买人 确认进入第二阶段竞价，最终由联发集团以总价21亿元+商品住宅装修标准4500元/㎡+公共服务设施5220㎡+高端人才住房配建比例2%竞得，综合楼面价33957元/ ㎡，溢价率41.68%。 6月19日，上海出让5宗地块，4宗溢价成交、1宗底价成交，总成交金额191.57亿元。其中，最受关注的杨浦区地块吸引了6家竞买人参与，最终经过95轮竞价，由 保利发展以35亿元竞得，成交楼面价95530元/㎡，溢价率30.79%。 至此，上海2025年五批次土拍收官，6宗地块总成交金额达212.57亿元。 同日，成都出让3宗宅地，1宗溢价成交、2宗底价成交，总成交金额17.7 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's mid-year land auction achieved the highest total amount this year, with a total land sale amount of 191.57 billion yuan from six plots [1] - The auction attracted 14 participating companies, including 6 state-owned enterprises and 1 private enterprise, indicating strong interest in the market [1] - The largest plot, a combination of six parcels in Baoshan District, was sold for 81.95 billion yuan, highlighting the competitive nature of the auction [2][3] Group 1: Auction Details - The total area of land sold during the auction was 271,700 square meters, with a planned total construction area of 638,500 square meters [1] - The auction was conducted over two days, with all five plots successfully sold [1] - The highest floor price was recorded at 73,000 yuan per square meter for a plot in Yangpu District, which became the new land king of the area [6] Group 2: Developer Participation - China State Construction Engineering Corporation and China Resources were the only two developers to bid for the largest plot, which was ultimately won by China State Construction East [3] - Poly Developments emerged as a significant winner, acquiring the most sought-after plot in Yangpu District for 35 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 30.79% [6][7] - Other notable developers included Jianfa and private enterprise Dahuazhi, which secured plots in Jinshan and Qingpu districts, respectively [7][8] Group 3: Market Implications - The auction reflects a trend of slowing supply of residential land, with a focus on "industry first, living facilities follow" development logic [5] - The successful sale of high-quality plots is expected to enhance the housing supply in Shanghai, contributing to a more stable real estate market [8] - The competitive bidding and high prices indicate strong demand for residential properties in prime locations, suggesting a positive outlook for future developments [2][6]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

（原标题：英国房价跌幅超过预期 5月份平均房价环比下降0.4%） 卫报6月6日报道，英国房价上月跌幅超出预期，季度跌幅创近一年新高，原因在于经济不确定性持 续影响房地产市场。5月，英国平均房价环比下降0.4%，降至29.6万英镑，远超市场经济学家此前预测 的0.1%跌幅。 Halifax周五公布的数据显示，过去四个月中，有三个月的房价出现下滑。5月的下跌是在4月小幅上 涨0.3%之后发生的。由于5月跌幅意外加大，房价的季度变化也下降了0.3%，为自去年6月以来的最大 季度跌幅。 她说："尽管家庭财务压力持续存在，经济前景依然不确定，但房地产市场表现出一定韧性。未来 走势将取决于利率下调的节奏、未来收入增长的力度以及整体通胀趋势。" 不过，衡量房地产市场健康状况的重要指标——新购房抵押贷款批准数量，4月已连续第三个月下 滑。英格兰银行的最新数据显示，净住宅抵押贷款批准量下降了3100宗，至60500宗，低于经济学家预 期。 英国税务与海关总署（HMRC）上周公布的数据显示，4月约完成64680宗房产交易，较3月的 177440宗大幅下降64%。 年增长率也大幅放缓至2.5%，低于此前预期的接近3%，并较4月的3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the black commodity futures generally rose and stabilized. The real - estate market received positive macro signals, but the real - estate data from January to May did not improve. The demand in the off - season led to more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and a continuous decline in hot metal production, which suppressed the alloy market sentiment. However, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. The supply of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but the high inventory pressure limited the upward movement of the market. Manganese silicon faced cost and supply pressure. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices and price changes of various black commodity futures on June 17 are as follows: the closing price of rebar was 2981 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; hot - rolled coil was 3093 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; iron ore was 699 yuan/ton; coking coal was 789.5 yuan/ton, up 0.55 yuan or 0.70%; coke was 1365.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.00%. The basis for rebar was 119, for hot - rolled coil was 107, for iron ore was 21, for coking coal was 120.5, and for coke was - 120.5. [1] Market Analysis - On the demand side, the real - estate market had positive signals but the data from January to May did not improve. In the off - season, steel mills had more blast furnace overhauls, and hot metal production declined, suppressing the alloy market. However, the high profitability rate of steel mills meant weak willingness to cut production, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. [1] - On the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but high inventory limited upward movement. Manganese silicon faced cost - inversion pressure, slow sales, and potential new production capacity, which might increase supply pressure. [1] - In terms of cost, coal prices were stable, and the impact on ferrosilicon was limited. The manganese ore market was stabilizing, and coke prices were expected to have a fourth - round reduction. The cost line of manganese silicon was weakly stable. [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, adopt a short - term shock - based approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two. [1] Summary - Without obvious improvement in fundamentals, the improvement in market sentiment had limited driving force for ferrosilicon prices, and it should be regarded as a short - term rebound. For manganese silicon, the price center might move up due to short - term market sentiment, but continuous upward movement required the resonance of macro and reality, and currently the driving force was weak, also regarded as a rebound. [1]

与此同时，5月份南京市二手房市场保持较高热度。南京市二手房网签面积112.75万平方米，同比增长 22.0%；其中二手住宅交易成交面积103.12万平方米，同比增长20.1%。从各区看，12个区二手住宅成交 均同比增长，其中六合区增幅超过50%，玄武区、鼓楼区、秦淮区、高淳区、江宁区、栖霞区增幅超过 20%，其他5个区保持平稳增长。从面积段看，60-90平方米为全市二手住宅成交主力户型，占全市总成 交量的39.1%。120-140平方米及140平方米以上大户型成交房源仍集中在江宁、江北新区、建邺、鼓楼 等区。 新京报贝壳财经讯 6月16日，"南京房地产业协会"官微披露，今年5月，南京市商品房上市25个项目， 面积25.19万平方米，较"银四"下降30.3%。其中：商品住宅项目16个，上市1329套、18.21万平方米；商 业办公上市项目4个、0.59万平方米；车位储藏室上市项目7个、6.39万平方米。 与此同时，上述商品住宅上市项目主要集中在雨花台区、江宁区和鼓楼区，合计上市规模占全市总上市 量的65.5%。上市的商品住宅项目中，市场关注度较高的项目包括玄武区山和月府、鼓楼区珑樾府、江 宁区嘉和华府、茂棠名邸 ...

《时代报》6月16日报道，在墨尔本华人区Glen Waverley，一套自1987年以来由同 一家族持有的四居室 住宅，在拍卖会上以183.2万澳元成交。 这处位于Mimosa St 15号的房产，指导价为140万至152万澳元，底价为160万澳元。 Mimosa St 15号（图片来源：《时代报》） 拍卖会上有七位活跃的竞标者，包括一些有意翻新房屋的购房者和一位投资客。 拍卖以135万澳元的出价开场，竞价迅速升温，价位先是以2.5万澳元的加价幅度攀 升，然后是2万澳 元，之后逐渐放缓至1万、5000和1000澳元。 他还提到，该地区的房地产市场"非常不错"，即买即住的房产表现尤为出色。 （图片来源：《时代报》） Huang表示："这真是一场激烈的拍卖，竞标持续了25分钟，共有71次出价。" 最终成功竞得该房产的买家计划翻新该房产然后入住，而出价第二高的买家则是一 位计划拆除并重建 房产的投资客。 来自Jellis Craig Glen Waverley的销售代理Calvin Huang表示："这幢房子非常 整洁，建造精良，有很大 的翻新潜力，而且地块面积可观。" Huang表示："卖家对拍卖结果有些惊讶，但 ...

2025年第二季度的最后一个月已走完一半的路程，该出预测文章了——根据当前的多项经济数据分析、解读及展望，南生认为：4至6月的我国GDP实际提 升力度将在4.7%至4.9%区间，取个中位数，4.8%吧。 增速预计维持在4.8%左右，主要依赖三大动能 一是企业对非美市场的拓展获得了巨大的成绩，不仅对冲对美贸易的损失，而得到了更多的收益——以5月份为例：中国对印度尼西亚出口上涨16.8%、对 越南出口上涨18.8%、对泰国出口大涨20.9%，对整个东盟的商品出口金额大涨了12.2%。 2025年5月份，我国对法国出口上涨5.9%，对德国出口金额提升了12.3%，对整个欧盟的出口增长了6.4%；对英国出口上涨7.4%，对加拿大出口上涨8.7%， 对拉美各国的商品出口上涨9.4%…… 对一带一路沿线国家的商品出口金额在今年5月份上涨了9.2%，对非洲各国的商品出口金额大涨了18.9%，并推动：我国5月份的外贸顺差金额暴涨至1032.2 亿美元，同比居然激增了40.3%，创新高。 是不是感到很惊讶啊？特朗普的本意是围剿中国，降低我国的外贸顺差，但结果却是：中国的对外贸易继续高歌猛进，单月顺差金额突破了1000亿美元。若 ...