1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: The actual demand for steel has limited improvement, and the price has corrected from its high level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Demand falls short of expectations, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The sentiment in the sector is weak, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][15]. - Coke and coking coal: The sentiment has declined, and the prices are correcting from their high levels [2][18][19]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton (-2.52%). The import and some domestic ore prices also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%). Inventory and production data also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. In July, financial statistics showed changes in M2, M1, etc. In late July, steel inventory and production data of key enterprises changed, and automobile production and sales data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [14]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [15][16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal JM2601 and coke J2601 decreased. Spot prices and various spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, financial statistics showed that M2 and M1 had year - on - year growth [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [25].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The manganese - silicon sector shows weak sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2509, 2510, manganese silicon 2509, and 2510 are 5794, 5778, 6074, and 6086 respectively, with changes of - 26, - 34, - 36, and - 38 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 232,143, 72,155, 314,200, and 52,038, and the open interests are 88,820, 59,932, 193,064, and 49,237 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, manganese ore Mn44 block, and semi - coke small materials in Shenmu are 5450 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 40.3 yuan/ton - degree, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The manganese ore price dropped by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The silicon iron spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences of silicon iron 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509, and manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 are - 17022 yuan/ton, - 888 yuan/ton, 280 - 10 yuan/ton, and 1984 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Trend Strength Index**: The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 13, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions range from 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern quotes of silicon manganese 6517 are 5850 - 5950 and 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Procurement News**: Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from July [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall recently in the Inner Mongolia production area, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $66.84, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 5960.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5825.0 to 5815.0, a - 0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.11% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 15050.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.90%, SR05 - 09 increased by - 1.36%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by - 6.67% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, CF01 - 05 increased by 40.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 16.67%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 22.50% [3]. Basis Data - **Sugar Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by - 17.86%, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by - 13.61%, and the basis of sugar 09 decreased by - 25.85% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by - 6.56%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by - 4.81%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by - 2.63% [3]. Import Price and Profit Data - **Import Price**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 78.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Space**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and relevant futures contract information are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by - 2.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.04% [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., which is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [8].

Group 1: Government Actions - The Indian government approved a one-time payment of 300 billion INR (approximately 3.4 billion USD) to state-owned fuel retailers to compensate for losses incurred from selling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at subsidized prices to impoverished households [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains its natural gas price forecasts for the Dutch TTF at 37 EUR/MWh for 2025 and 30 EUR/MWh for 2026 [2] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a decrease of 12,941 contracts in net long positions for natural gas futures on NYMEX and ICE markets, bringing the total to 243,198 contracts as of the week ending August 5 [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - Hualian Futures noted a continued decline in domestic LPG production compared to last year, with low inventory levels rebounding and port capacity utilization rates falling to the median of recent years. Refinery capacity utilization remains at a multi-year low, while gas station capacity is neutral. The overall inventory at ports has rebounded to high levels, and U.S. inventories continue to rise. Demand is weak, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and a slowdown in restaurant consumption, although chemical demand has increased [3] - Zhonghui Futures observed stabilization in costs alongside high basis levels, leading to increased positions. Oil prices have stabilized, and downstream chemical demand remains decent with PDH operating rates around 70%. Supply and inventory levels are neutral to bearish, with a slight increase in domestic production and rising port inventories. The strategy suggested is to maintain light positions and consider long positions within the range of 3750-3850 [4]

Group 1: Methanol - The methanol price followed coal price fluctuations this week, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in the process of inventory accumulation, high imports, and normal valuation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - From August 5th to 11th, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the江苏 spot price decreased by 9 to 2374, the华南 spot price decreased by 3 to 2375, and the西北 discounted price increased by 13 to 2703 [2] Group 2: Polyethylene - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year, with upstream accumulation and coal - chemical de - stocking. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral, with a 09 basis of about - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, the Northeast LL price increased by 10 to 7200, the East LL price increased by 10 to 7310, and the East LD price increased by 15 to 9490. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt increased by 400 to 6282 [6] Group 3: Polypropylene - For polypropylene, upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is accumulating, while mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 800, and export is good. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and downstream orders are average [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Shandong propylene increased by 220 to 6500, Northeast Asia propylene remained at 740, the East PP price increased by 10 to 7030, and the North PP price decreased by 22 to 7018. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt remained at 12540 [6] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride - The PVC basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2350, Shandong caustic soda remained at 837, the calcium - carbide - method East price remained at 4930, and the ethylene - method East price remained at 5500 [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soda ash futures has increased by over 5% [1]

Report Title - Palm Oil: Supply and Demand in Producing Areas Are Both Strong, Focus on Buying at Low Levels; Soybean Oil: Lack of Drivers from US Soybeans, Pay Attention to Subsequent Domestic Purchases [2] Report Date - August 12, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the supply and demand in producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to buy at low levels; for soybean oil, there is a lack of drivers from US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent domestic purchases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 2.65%, night - session closing price was up 0.20%, with 567,374 lots traded (an increase of 125,153) and 299,985 lots held (a decrease of 5,729) [3] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.67%, night - session closing price was down 0.38%, with 164,012 lots traded (a decrease of 40,472) and 335,019 lots held (a decrease of 29,250) [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.15%, night - session closing price was up 0.33%, with 194,113 lots traded (an increase of 713) and 126,040 lots held (a decrease of 14,440) [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 3.06%, night - session closing price was down 0.27% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.91% [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The price was 8,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The price was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: The price was 1,060 dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 238 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 194 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 18 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The previous trading day was 370 yuan/ton, and the day before was 594 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: It was - 778 yuan/ton, compared with - 592 yuan/ton previously [3] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in July increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, and imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons [4] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [6] - Indonesia: Trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the DMO plan, aiming to lower prices, and the DMO level should be maintained at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out [6] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - Abiove: In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [7] - Secex: Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with an average daily export volume 27% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [7] - CCC: Canada exported 651,106 tons of rapeseed, 223,217 tons of rapeseed oil, and 459,023 tons of rapeseed meal in June 2025. As of June, the 2024/25 annual exports were 8.911907 million tons of rapeseed, 3.127944 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 5.369241 million tons of rapeseed meal [7] - APK - Inform: Lowered the forecast of Ukraine's soybean production this year to 5830,000 tons from the previous 6260,000 tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 1; soybean oil trend intensity was 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [9]