商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 LLDPE：标品排产继续回落，基差弱稳 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6642 | 0.96% | 662494 | -2207 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -162 | | -179 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -45 | | -39 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6480 | | 6400 | | | | 华 东 | 6550 | | 6450 | | | | 华 南 | 6550 | | 6490 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 LPG：进口成本坚挺，关注负反馈兑现 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2602 | 4,232 | 2.32% | 4,228 | -0.09% | | 期货价格 | PG2603 | 4,128 | 2.46% | 4,134 | 0.15% | | | PL2602 | 5,814 | 0.80% | 5,853 | 0.67% | | | PL2603 | 5,894 | 1.25% | 5,931 | 0.63% | | | PL2604 | 5,955 | 1.07% | 6,000 | 0.76% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 75,009 | 13977 | 59,220 | 12 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2603 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 801.0 | 4. 0 | 0. 50% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 640. 868 | 22. 093 | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.17%, reaching a price of 146,590 yuan per ton [1]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 铝：继续补涨 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23645 | 720 | 1370 | 2180 | 2855 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24165 | ー | ー | ー | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3090 | 93 | 134 | 289 | 468 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 335721 | -51853 | 106372 | 178331 | 242472 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261132 | 4759 | -29342 | 64692 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差走强 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6449 | -0.36% | 452112 | 7498 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -129 | | -182 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -47 | | -37 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6320 | | 6290 | | | | 华 东 | 6400 | | 6380 | | | | 华 南 | 6470 | | 6370 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货震荡，节前盘面反弹给到代理、期现商建仓机会，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期正反 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Styrene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Ethylene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated explicitly [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: Not rated explicitly [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated explicitly [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: Not rated explicitly [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: Not rated explicitly [1] - Propylene: Not rated explicitly [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex and diversified trends, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, geopolitical events, and macro - news [2][3][5] - Each product has its own short - term and long - term price trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product fundamentals [5][6][7] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. Multiple device changes had limited impact on overall supply, while demand was weak and market trading was light [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts declined during the day. For polyethylene, the trading atmosphere improved, but the supply - demand imbalance continued. For polypropylene, short - term demand was weak due to tightened funds and slow new orders [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed oil prices to fluctuate downward in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. High imports and rising port inventories put pressure on the market. Consider long - term positive spreads in the mid - term [3] - Styrene futures main contract closed down. Downstream procurement was on - demand, and the spot trading atmosphere was poor after the holiday [3] Polyester - PX's weakness drove PTA prices down, and demand decline around the Spring Festival dragged down polyester raw materials. PTA's main driver was raw materials [5] - Ethylene glycol's production increase weakened the production - cut expectation. Although the arrival volume decline eased the inventory pressure, it was still under long - term pressure. Focus on short - term oil price fluctuations [5] - Short fiber enterprises had low inventories, but downstream demand was weak. The long - term supply - demand pattern was good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contract opened high and closed low. Coastal and inland spot trends diverged. High short - term inventory might suppress the market, but the mid - term import reduction was expected to lead to a strong market [6] - Urea prices continued to rise. Supply recovery was less than expected, and short - term supply was tight. The market might weaken later [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC declined slightly. Supply increased, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. The rebound height was expected to be limited [7] - Caustic soda dropped significantly. The industry was accumulating inventory, and the supply pressure was large. The rebound height was suppressed, and it was expected to find the bottom [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash inventory increased significantly after the holiday, and the futures price dropped. Supply increased, demand decreased, and long - term supply was expected to be in excess [8] - Glass showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Spot prices were low, production and sales were okay, and long - term capacity reduction was expected [8]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index stabilized above 97.50 last week and closed with a bullish weekly candle, indicating a medium-term bullish outlook [1][9] - This week, the focus is on the support level at 98.10, with expectations to remain bullish above this level [1][9] - Suggested trading strategy includes going long in the 98.40/50 area with a stop loss at 98.10 and targets set at 99.70, 100.50, and 102.40 [1][9] Group 2: Euro - The Euro reversed downward as expected, maintaining a bearish outlook below 1.1820, with a target of 1.1320 [2][11] - The reversal pattern was confirmed last week, and the strategy remains to short the Euro, focusing on the strong resistance at 1.1750 [2][11] - Recommended trading action is to short near 1.1710 with a stop loss at 1.1760 and targets at 1.1630, 1.1580, and further down to 1.1420 and 1.1320 [2][11] Group 3: Gold - Gold reached a peak last week but did not create a new high, instead experiencing a significant pullback [4][13] - A recent top has formed, with only a 5% probability of making new highs in the short term, suggesting a high-level consolidation or downward trend [4][13] - Key resistance is at 4497, while support levels are at 4275 and 4130; no specific trading recommendations are provided, only a framework for analysis [4][13] Group 4: Silver - Silver halted its upward trend and experienced a notable pullback, closing with a bearish weekly candle [6][15] - The short-term outlook indicates a peak has been reached, with recommendations to operate within a high-level consolidation or downward trend, though the downside potential is limited [6][15] - Current trading strategy suggests a short-term bullish view, with resistance levels at 77.20 to 78.70 and 80.70, while support levels are at 70.60 and 66.60 [6][15]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the steel tender pricing is settled, and caution should be exercised regarding market sentiment. For silicomanganese, the inquiry sentiment is strong after the holiday, and waiting for the steel tender settlement [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Ferrosilicon 2603 closed at 5672, down 78 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 225,315 and an open interest of 218,692. Ferrosilicon 2605 closed at 5628, down 78, with a trading volume of 28,644 and an open interest of 47,924. Silicomanganese 2603 closed at 5920, down 22, with a trading volume of 146,560 and an open interest of 267,767. Silicomanganese 2605 closed at 5936, down 12, with a trading volume of 66,562 and an open interest of 206,794 [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5320 yuan/ton. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) was - 352 yuan/ton, up 78. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 03 futures) was - 270 yuan/ton, up 22. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 was 44 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 was - 16 yuan/ton, down 10. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 was 308 yuan/ton, up 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 4, the prices of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions were: Shaanxi 5150 - 5300 (+25), Ningxia 5300 - 5350, Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5250 - 5350, Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5350 (+50); 75 ferrosilicon: Shaanxi 5600 - 5700, Ningxia 5600 - 5650, Qinghai 5600, Gansu 5550 - 5600, Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700 (+50). The FOB prices were 721030 - 1050(+10), 751090 - 1120 (US dollars/ton,含税). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (-25) [2] - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon for January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, with a quantity of 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [2] - In December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 2,388,476 tons, a 17.28% increase from November's 2,036,533 tons and a 14.49% decrease from December 2024's 2,793,090 tons. From January to December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 23,913,195 tons, a 15.17% increase from the same period in 2024, an increase of 3.15 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon was 0; the trend intensity of silicomanganese was 0 [3]

黄金技术分析及下周策略： 1月4日，上周黄金开盘大跌，节前顶部抛盘导致价格短暂回落至4270附近，不过这只是短期降温，4300 技术支撑坚实有效。本周两次下探4300均快速反弹至4400，呈现大跌后的结构性调整态势；因未能站稳 4400，整体处于低位震荡，最终收盘于4330附近。下周操作上认为黄金大概率直接上涨，下方关注4300 支撑，上方重点关注能否突破并站稳4400关口，站稳则打开进一步上行空间。 白银技术分析及下周策略： 白银遵循"大涨 - 调整 - 再涨"的合理节奏，目前多次调整至70.5后反弹，该价位支撑力度凸显。白银兼 具金融属性与工业属性，未来工业和市场需求空间巨大，长期上涨趋势不变。下周操作上建议围绕 70.5-76区间看待震荡上行走势；若站稳76，有望触发多头放量，打开新一轮上涨空间。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 黄金技术分析及下周策略： 1月4日，上周黄金开盘大跌，节前顶部抛盘导致价格短暂回落至4270附近 ...