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【期货热点追踪】马棕油延续上涨,印度节前备货预期升温,上涨行情还会持续多久?点击阅读。
news flash· 2025-07-23 11:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that palm oil prices continue to rise due to increased stocking expectations in India ahead of the festival season, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the ongoing bullish trend in palm oil prices, indicating a potential for further increases in the near term [1]
【期货热点追踪】机构表示雾霾可能会冲击产区棕榈油单产,供应端潜在扰动加剧,马棕油价格是否将受情绪带动提前反应?
news flash· 2025-07-23 10:09
相关链接 机构表示雾霾可能会冲击产区棕榈油单产,供应端潜在扰动加剧,马棕油价格是否将受情绪带动提前反 应? 期货热点追踪 ...
锌:小幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Zinc shows a slight fluctuation [1] - Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,945 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,844.5 dollars/ton, up 0.73% [1] - **Trading Volume**: SHFE zinc main contract trading volume was 184,578 lots, down 66,827; LME zinc trading volume was 18,296 lots, down 111 [1] - **Open Interest**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 134,060 lots, up 746; LME zinc open interest was 184,683 lots, up 837 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -15 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium was 9 dollars/ton, up 19 [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 12,090 tons, up 1,002; LME zinc inventory was 116,600 tons, down 1,625 [1] News - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" has softened, but he and Bessent are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates [2]
芳烃橡胶早报-20250723
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:30
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: PTA Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, crude oil decreased from $68.5 to $68.6, PTA internal spot price fluctuated around 4700 - 4785, and various spreads and margins also changed [2] - Market Situation: Near - term TA weekly operation remained stable, polyester load declined, inventory slightly accumulated, basis rebounded after liquidity shock weakened, and spot processing fee slightly recovered; PX domestic operation decreased slightly, overseas load increased, PXN strengthened slightly [3] - Outlook: TA enters the inventory accumulation stage but the absolute inventory level is not high. The slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Spot processing fee is compressed to a low level. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the far - month processing fee at low prices; PX overall inventory reduction trend has not reversed, and the valuation floor is still guaranteed [3] Group 3: MEG Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, MEG internal price increased from 4400 to 4490, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: Near - term EG domestic unexpected reduction increased, overseas Saudi devices stopped again. With the decline of phased arrivals, port inventory is expected to decrease. After the monthly structure repair, the basis weakened, and the benefit ratio further expanded [3] - Outlook: Supply - side unexpected reduction leads to a downward revision of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, the far - month valuation will rise correspondingly, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6680 to 6640, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: Near - term Xin凤鸣, Yuanfang, and Zhongtai reduced production, the operation rate dropped to 89.5%, sales decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn continued to decline, raw material inventory increased slightly, and finished product inventory continued to accumulate, with low benefits [3] - Outlook: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has no obvious reduction or increase. Domestic demand is weak while export growth is high. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the changes in warehouse receipts [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased from 1755 to 1800, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable, with a relatively low absolute level but no seasonal reduction; the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [3] - Outlook: The main strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 6: Styrene Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 820, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: The prices of related products such as styrene and its downstream products changed, and the domestic profits of related products also showed different trends [3]
【期货热点追踪】出口疲软VS生物柴油政策支撑,马棕油结束连跌但反弹返利,关键阻力位4260或成多空分水岭?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-23 00:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting factors affecting palm oil prices, specifically weak exports versus supportive biodiesel policies [1] - Palm oil has ended its consecutive decline and is experiencing a rebound, indicating potential market recovery [1] - A critical resistance level at 4260 may serve as a dividing line for bullish and bearish market sentiments [1]
《能源化工》日报-20250722
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 13:14
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]
国投期货软商品日报-20250722
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Paper pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - For different soft commodities, the market conditions vary. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, weather, and policies. The overall suggestions are mainly to wait and see, with some opportunities for short - term operations or low - position buying [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong overall commodity market and domestic anti - involution policies. The 9 - 1 spread declined. The cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. Downstream procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar retreated. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, with a year - on - year decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. The overall harvest progress is slow, resulting in large year - on - year decreases in sugarcane crushing and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be listed, and cold - storage merchants were more active in shipping, causing the price of cold - storage apples to weaken. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment was optimistic, and the domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubbers continued to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet was stable, while the European price was stable with a slight decline. The price in the Thai raw material market continued to rise. Globally, the natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rainfall to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. Enterprises that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and the inventory of tire finished products has increased. In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons this week, with both bonded and general trade inventories decreasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 126,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 5,900 yuan/ton, the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4,100 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year, with an import volume of 3.031 million tons in June and a cumulative import volume of 18.578 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, the pulp demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The demand is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume at ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall destocking is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters, with the radiation - pine inventory at 2.64 million cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, providing some bullish factors on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and there is insufficient momentum for price rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [8]
【期货热点追踪】空头注意了!知名机构指出,全球油籽丰产压力持续加大,4300或成马棕油短期顶部?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-22 05:15
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that a well-known institution has highlighted the increasing pressure of global oilseed production, suggesting that the price of palm oil may reach a short-term peak at 4300 [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of abundant oilseed supply, which could impact market dynamics and pricing strategies for palm oil [1] - The mention of potential price ceilings suggests a cautious outlook for short-term investments in palm oil [1]
【期货热点追踪】政策市or基本面?多晶硅盘中涨超7%再创历史新高,背后的真实驱动力是什么?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-22 03:55
Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in polysilicon prices, which increased by over 7% during trading, reaching a new historical high. The piece questions whether this price movement is driven by policy changes or fundamental market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon prices have shown significant volatility, with the latest increase marking a new record high, indicating strong demand in the market [1] - The article suggests that the driving forces behind this price surge need to be analyzed, focusing on whether it is a result of government policies or underlying market fundamentals [1]
沥青:震荡反复
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:57
商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 沥青:震荡反复 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,678 | 0.11% | 3,638 | -1.09% | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,657 | 0.05% | 3,615 | -1.15% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 2,750 | 379 | 6,308 | (1,060) | | | BU2509 | 手 | 141,580 | (15,006) | 223,360 | (4,713) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...