热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行情回顾 2025年12月，受产地棕榈油超预期累库、全球菜籽丰产及国内"旺季不旺"需求拖累，国内外油脂市场全 线承压，价格重心下移。油脂板块的主导驱动逻辑依然在棕榈油，棕榈油在马来西亚12月公布的累库数 据打击下，盘面一度下挫，节前迎来一小波反弹，但产地并没有明显好转的出口和降幅较小的产量数据 使得阶段性反弹并未形成突破。豆油自身累库压力仍存，菜籽油中加关系走向不明的背景下，主产国丰 产预期以及澳菜籽到港均带来一定压力，因此整体板块共同承压运行为主。截至12月31日当月，豆油主 力合约月线收跌2.21%；棕榈油主力合约月线跌幅1.08%；菜籽油主力合约月线收跌4.36%。 二、国际市场重点事件及外围因素影响分析 （一）地缘事件支撑原油价格，或对油脂板块形成短暂带动 1月3日美国对委内瑞拉发动了军事打击，并控制了其总统马杜罗。美国总统特朗普随后宣布将"管理"委 内瑞拉，并推动美国石油公司进入该国开发其石油资源。委内瑞拉是全球最大的石油探明储量国，1月3 日军事袭击以来出口总体处于暂停状态，已装载原油或燃料油的船只停滞不前，此前计划装船的船只也 出 ...

年度报告-油脂 潮退的寂静，于暮色中等待风起 [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] 菜油：震荡，豆油：看涨，棕榈油：看涨 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★行情回顾 油脂市场在今年年初回调后，全年始终维持偏高位运行。上半 年，棕榈油冲高回落后走弱，豆油以跟随为主，波动较小，菜 油则受到政策影响走势偏强。6 月中旬，受到美国生物燃料政策 的利多影响，国内油脂市场跟随美豆油与马棕油走强，菜油也 在持续震荡后再度受到政策影响走高，一度突破 10000 元。四季 度产地供应压力激增，叠加生物燃料政策的不确定性增加，油 脂市场在棕榈油的领跌下全线回调。 农 ★行情展望 产 品 2026 年，油脂市场的核心驱动力依旧在国际贸易关系与生物燃 料政策，伴随美国生物燃料政策逐步确定，我们仍倾向于油脂 市场整体价格中枢有望上移。 棕榈油：2026 年产量预计小幅下滑，印尼的生物柴油政策格外 重要。在节省巨额外汇情况下，印尼政府有动力持续推进生柴 政策，而基金问题也可通过上调税率解决，关注点在于 NPSO 部门的政策调整，我们对印尼生柴政策持中性偏乐观的态度。 豆油：后续美国生物燃料政策 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybeans have resumed sales to China, but the sales progress is significantly lower than the same period last year, leading to continued weakness in U.S. soybeans. Rumors of imported soybean reserves release after New Year's Day and the pre - placement of some February reserves to January have weakened the near - month spot market. The far - month contracts are expected to remain weak with no sign of all bad news being priced in [2]. - Indonesia's biofuel policy has limited development space due to poor economic viability. The implementation of the U.S. renewable diesel tax credit policy in January can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. biodiesel. After a short - term rebound in the oil and fat sector following crude oil, the futures - spot basis has narrowed. The subsequent upward drive of the market depends on the U.S. biofuel policy. Short - term spot purchases can be made appropriately, but conservative operations are recommended before the U.S. biofuel policy is fully implemented [2][3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Soybean Meal - The estimated output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is 178.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons [1]. - As of the week ending December 11, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 2.4247 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 54% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland at 1.383 million tons. Next - year's soybean export sales had a net increase of 28,500 tons. U.S. soybean exports for shipment were 721,300 tons, down 33% from the previous week and 31% from the four - week average, with 202,000 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 2.4189 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 28,500 tons [1]. Oils and Fats - Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, slightly higher than the 15.6 million kiloliters in 2025 [2]. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will decide on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, U.S. biodiesel producers' tax credit will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and renewable diesel producers' to 53 cents per gallon [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market. The market will maintain low - level fluctuations, waiting for the US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8,200 yuan/ton, and the palm oil may have a chance to improve in the future [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil market lies in the external market. Key issues include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed oil supply, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - No specific content provided other than the headings. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - The short - term trend is low - level shock adjustment, with a possible rebound in Q1 2026. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are [8,200 - 8,800], [7,600 - 8,100], and [8,600 - 9,500] respectively. Technical analysis suggests a short - term low - level consolidation approach for single - side trading and observing the weakening trend of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads for arbitrage. The current basis is expected to be weak in the short term, and the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads are expected to weaken [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on basis, spreads, and other indicators [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The US will exempt Indonesia's palm oil tariffs. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in December. Indonesia has started the B50 biodiesel road test, and its implementation is likely in H2 2026. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October [23][24]. - **Likely Negative Information**: Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025. China's palm oil inventory increased in December. Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased in December. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key events include domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the US small refinery exemption re - allocation, China - Canada trade negotiation progress, and producing area weather information [33]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was weak this week, lacking upward drivers. Capital trends showed a bearish sentiment in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The basis continued to be weak, and the market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. The rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads weakened slightly [32][35][43]. - **International Market**: The international market was weak and volatile. Palm oil producing areas faced pressure, and the US soybean market lacked positive drivers. The market sentiment was pessimistic [45]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread rebounded slightly, and the BOHO spread continued to weaken [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Import profits fluctuated slightly, but were limited. Profits weakened again near the end of the year [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Producing Area Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Malaysia's palm oil inventory pressure remained in November. December production decreased, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [55]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: Low - season demand and winter factors limit domestic purchases. Wait for inventory pressure relief. - Soybean oil: December raw material arrivals may decline, but inventory is still abundant. Pay attention to potential short - term supply shortages in Q1. - Rapeseed oil: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed arrivals have increased, the supply gap may gradually disappear [57]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Short - term demand for the three major oils is weak. The traditional consumption peak in Q4 has limited impact, and the overall demand is expected to remain stable and weak [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean supply and demand remain in a loose pattern, but there are structural adjustments in different countries. The US soybean supply faces a structural contraction, Brazil's supply is abundant, and Argentina's supply is affected by La Nina [2][67]. - The global rapeseed output will increase in 2025/26. The price of rapeseed in 2026 will show wide - range fluctuations and be event - driven, highly dependent on China - Canada trade policies [2][68]. - The global palm oil supply is in a tight pattern in 2025/26, but it is expected to grow in 2026. The palm oil price in 2026 may be supported by biodiesel, with potential structural opportunities in the first quarter [2][69][70]. 3. Summary of Each Section Part 1: Market Review - Wide - Range Fluctuations of Oils and Fats Throughout the Year - Rapeseed prices in 2025 showed a trend of rising, then falling from a high level, and finally stabilizing and rebounding. The price was affected by trade policies and market expectations of new - season harvest [4]. - The price center of soybean No. 2 futures moved up in 2025. It was affected by trade risks, weather conditions, and biodiesel policies at different stages [6]. - In 2024, the prices of the three major oils and fats went through four stages, showing different trends due to factors such as inventory, supply, demand, and policies [6][7]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply and Demand Remain in a Loose Pattern - **International Supply**: The global soybean output in 2025/26 is 422 million tons, a decrease of 1.17% year - on - year. The inventory consumption ratio remains above 20%, indicating a loose supply pattern [10]. - **US Supply**: The US soybean planting area decreased by 7.0% in 2025/26. The output is expected to be 115 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year. Domestic consumption increased, while exports decreased [12][13]. - **Brazilian Supply**: Brazil's soybean output in 2025/26 may reach a record high of 175 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year - on - year. However, in the long run, the era of large - scale expansion of planting area may end [15][16][17]. - **Argentine Supply**: Argentina's soybean output in 2025/26 is 48.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% year - on - year. La Nina may have a negative impact on its output [21][22]. Part 3: Abundant Rapeseed Supply - **Global Output Increase**: The global rapeseed output in 2025/26 is 92.273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The output in the EU, Canada, Australia, and Russia all increased [25]. - **Uncertainty in China's Imports**: China's rapeseed imports in 2025 remained at a high level. The core driver of the import pattern in 2026 is the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canada. Different policy scenarios will lead to different import patterns [31][36][37]. Part 4: Both Production and Demand in the Vegetable Oil Market Increase - **Global Situation**: In 2025/26, the global vegetable oil production and consumption both increased. The growth rate of demand exceeded that of supply, and the inventory and inventory consumption ratio continued to decline [40]. - **Palm Oil Supply Growth**: The global palm oil supply is expected to grow in 2026. Indonesia's output may increase by 3% - 4% in 2026, and Malaysia's output is also expected to rise due to the improvement of labor supply [42][46][47]. - **Increased Industrial Demand**: The industrial demand for global oils and fats increased significantly. The US biodiesel is a major growth point for oil demand but faces policy uncertainty. Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy is well - implemented and may be upgraded to B50 in 2026 [50][51][56]. - **Domestic Demand Focus**: China's three major oils and fats are expected to enter the de - stocking stage, with rapeseed oil having the fastest de - stocking speed [61]. Part 5: Hotspot Analysis in 2026 - **US Soybean Price**: The price of US soybeans in 2025/26 highly depends on China's procurement. Different procurement volumes will have different impacts on US soybean inventories and prices [64][65][66]. Part 6: Recommended Trading Strategies in 2026 - **Soybean Series**: The global non - Chinese soybean supply and demand remain loose in 2025/26. The US supply contracts, Brazil's is abundant, and Argentina's is affected by weather. The US soybean price depends on China's procurement [67]. - **Rapeseed Series**: The global rapeseed output increases in 2025/26. The rapeseed price in 2026 will fluctuate widely and be driven by events, depending on China - Canada trade policies [68]. - **Palm Oil**: The global palm oil supply is tight in 2025/26 but expected to grow in 2026. The price may be supported by biodiesel, with potential opportunities in the first quarter [69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may have a short - term rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Dalian palm oil futures may seek support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate in the 8200 - 8300 range [1]. - Soybean oil: With uncertain biodiesel policies in the US and upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest, CBOT soybean oil is under pressure. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but with the approaching Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports in Q1, domestic factory soybean oil inventories may decrease, and basis quotes are expected to have limited fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the decline in US crude oil prices and subsequent events, the domestic vegetable oil market was first dragged down and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [1]. Pork - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for southern curing, the downside support is stronger. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market due to the possible impact of the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening pigs. The spot market has a sentiment of holding back sales, which supports the market. The futures market rose on the news of tariff increase on European pork imports but then fell as the actual tariff was lowered and the impact of imported pork on domestic supply is limited. The futures market will continue to adjust narrowly [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a bearish pattern due to the favorable export conditions in Brazil and the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. In China, the sugar - pressing speed in the main producing areas has accelerated, and the futures market price is weakening due to increased supply. The market is expected to remain weak [7]. Meal - The US soybean market lacks trading highlights, and the South American new - crop soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, which suppresses the US soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. Although there is speculation about delayed soybean clearance and a sentiment of supporting prices, the upward space is limited, and there is a risk of decline [9]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of supporting prices, and the prices in the producing areas are stable. In the north port, the supply has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. In North China, farmers sell when the price is high and hold back when the price is low. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and feed enterprises have a slightly lower willingness to pay for new orders. In the short term, the increase in corn supply will put pressure on the price, but the price decline is limited due to the grass - roots' price - supporting sentiment and the need for low - inventory enterprises to replenish stocks. The market will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Red Dates - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. The price in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is firm, while that in the Guangdong Ruyifang market has slightly declined. The futures price is weak, the spot price is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved transactions during the consumption peak, and the downward momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival and the planting area and early - stage weather in 2026 [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. The US cotton export sales showed a decrease compared to the previous week and the four - week average. The US cotton market will remain volatile. In China, although the market expects a decline in the Xinjiang planting area next year, the downstream industry is weak, with increasing finished - product inventories and deteriorating spinning enterprise profits and cash flows. However, the rigid demand for cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises remains, so the downside space of cotton prices is limited, but there is pressure above. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [21]. Eggs - Egg prices are gradually rising from a low level, leading to a sentiment of holding back sales among farmers. The number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. With favorable storage conditions due to the recent cooling, egg supply remains sufficient. The market transaction is okay, with increased buying sentiment in low - price areas and high inventory pressure in high - price areas. All links are actively clearing inventory. The egg market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On December 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8460 yuan, down 0.59% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8096 yuan, down 0.93%; the basis of Y2605 was 364 yuan, up 7.69%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25964 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8380 yuan, down 0.59%; the futures price of P2605 was 8398 yuan, down 0.92%; the basis of P2605 was - 18 yuan, up 60.87%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port for May was 8848.4 yuan, down 0.77%, and the import profit was - 450 yuan, down 2.02%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 950 [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan, down 0.83%; the futures price of O1605 was 9157 yuan, down 1.59%; the basis of O1R05 was 413 yuan, up 19.71%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 3386 to 3336 [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread was 68 yuan, down 15%; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread was 102 yuan, down 15%; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread was 13 yuan, down 68.29%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 80 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 520 yuan, up 3.35%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1110 yuan, down 2.63%; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1061 yuan, down 6.35% [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 315, up 215% from the previous day. The price of live - hog 2605 was 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the price of live - hog 2603 was 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 520, up 10.34%. The main - contract position was 167381, up 6.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 [3]. - **Spot**: In Henan, the price was 11750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 12410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 11650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 231951, up 2.48%; the weekly strip price was 18 yuan, down 0.17%; the weekly piglet price was 16.5 yuan/kg, down 2.94%; the weekly sow price was 32.46 yuan, down 0.03%; the weekly slaughter weight was 129.63 kg, down 0.15%; the weekly cumulative breeding profit was - 163 yuan, up 2.59%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 241 yuan, up 7.21%; the monthly number of fertile sows was 39900000, down 1.12% [3]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5215 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5139 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.76 cents/lb, down 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was 76 yuan/ton, down 3.8%. The main - contract position was 487935, up 1.35%. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 611 and 1490 respectively [7]. - **Spot**: In Nanning, the price was 5320 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; in Kunming, it was 5245 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The Nanning basis was 181 yuan, down 12.56%; the Kunming basis was 106 yuan, down 16.54%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4094 yuan/ton, down 0.8%; outside the quota was 5188 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1050000 tons, down 23.24%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 350000 tons, down 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 133900 tons, down 73.87%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi was 89400 tons, down 68.63%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate was 33.5%, down 24.75%; the cumulative sugar - sales rate in Guangxi was 66.77%, up 20.05%. The national industrial inventory was 700000 tons, down 7.4%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 44500 tons, down 80.43%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 12600 tons, up 110%. The sugar import volume was 750000 tons, up 38.89% [7]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 3100 yuan, down 0.32%; the futures price of M2605 was 2756 yuan, down 0.76%; the basis of M2605 was 344 yuan, up 3.3%. The spot basis quote was m2605 + 280. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in February was 38, up 140.7%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 23830 [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2410 yuan, up 0.42%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2331 yuan, down 1.19%; the basis of RM2605 was 79 yuan, up 92.68%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in January was 476, down 7.57%. The number of warehouse receipts was 0 [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4090 yuan, unchanged; the basis was - 150 yuan, unchanged. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3739 yuan, down 1.16%; the basis was 211 yuan, up 26.35%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17034 [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread was - 110 yuan, down 10%; the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan, down 25.45%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.73, down 0.27%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.84, up 0.12%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 690 yuan, down 2.82%; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 425 yuan, up 1.67% [9]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 was 2206 yuan, down 0.63%; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan, down 0.44%; the basis was 74 yuan, up 5.71%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 33 yuan, down 83.33%. The bulk grain price in Shekou was 2410 yuan, down 0.41%. The north - south trade profit was 30 yuan, unchanged. The CIF price was 2120 yuan, down 0.1%; the import profit was 290 yuan, down 2.65%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 421, down 59.48%. The number of warehouses decreased from 2146100 to 2098833, down 2.2%. The number of warehouse receipts was 54440, down 0.87% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2512 yuan, up 0.4%. The spot price in Changchun was 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 78 yuan, down 11.36%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan, up 18.6%. The 01 - contract spread between starch and corn was 306 yuan, up 8.51%. The profit of Shandong starch enterprises was - 8 yuan, down 233.33%. The number of warehouses decreased from 287376 to 286198, down 0.41%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2500 [10]. Red Dates - **Futures**: The price of red dates 2601 was 8830 yuan, unchanged; the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8915 yuan, down 0.56%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9235 yuan, down 0.48%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan, up 37.04%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 320 yuan, down 1.59%. The position was 175737, up 1.68%. The number of warehouse receipts was 982, up 11.21%; the effective forecast was 1145, up 0.97%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 2127, up 5.45% [14]. - **Spot**: The price of top - grade red dates in Cangzhou was 9650 yuan, down 0.21%; the price of first - grade red dates was 8600 yuan, unchanged; the price of second - grade red dates was 7200 yuan, unchanged. The basis of top - grade red dates to the main contract was 135 yuan, up 28.57%; the basis of first - grade red dates to the main contract was 885 yuan, up 5.99% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13925 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 63.46 cents/lb, up 0.52%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 200%. The main - contract position was 731267, up 2.48%. The number of warehouse receipts was 3482, up 8.85%; the effective forecast was 3898, down 3.08% [21]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 1

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expected to delay the finalization of the 2026 biofuel blending quotas until next year, creating uncertainty for the oil and agriculture industries [1] Group 1: Policy Implications - The delay in the biofuel blending quotas is one of the most significant energy policy decisions, which will now be pushed to next year [1] - The decision-making process regarding biofuel policy is expanding, indicating a complex interplay of interests between the oil and agriculture sectors [1] Group 2: Stakeholder Engagement - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has scheduled meetings with stakeholders early next year to discuss the quota regulations, confirming that the issue will be deferred [1] - It is unlikely that the EPA will make a decision on the quotas before the end of this year, further extending the timeline for resolution [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] 2. Core Views - The domestic soybean market is strong, with policy - side trading showing full - volume transactions and a strong price difference compared to imported soybeans. Short - term focus should be on policy and spot - end performance [2] - German biofuel policy changes may marginally improve palm oil demand, but the high inventory in the Malaysian market cannot be ignored, and palm oil is expected to fluctuate [3] - The domestic market continues with the logic of slow import soybean customs clearance. The soybean and soybean meal futures show different trends, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [5] - Rapeseed meal futures decline slightly, while rapeseed oil futures rise. The rapeseed market is expected to remain strong domestically and weak overseas in the short term [6] - Corn futures are generally oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the grain transportation progress in the Northeast and corn and wheat auctions [7] - Live pig futures continue to weaken, and the market is expected to face a second bottom - testing next year [8] - Egg futures have significant position - reduction, and the medium - long - term fundamentals are expected to improve gradually [9] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Domestic soybeans are strong. Policy - side trading has full - volume transactions with an average price of 4110 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening. Short - term focus on policy and spot - end [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic market follows the slow - clearance logic of imported soybeans. The 01/03 contracts of Dalian soybean futures rise, and the 05 contract is flat. The USDA December report has no adjustment to US soybean data. The US soybean futures are weak. Wait for South American weather changes, be bullish on near - month contracts, and consider going long on the 05 contract at low prices [5] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - German biofuel policy changes may affect the demand structure. The marginal demand for palm oil is expected to improve, but the high - inventory pressure in the Malaysian market exists. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal futures decline slightly, and rapeseed oil futures rise. The rapeseed market is expected to be strong domestically and weak overseas in the short term. Pay attention to rapeseed import changes [6] Corn - Corn futures are generally oscillating strongly. Northeast and North Port corn spot prices are stable, while downstream procurement shows different trends. The 03 contract may have a weak correction, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - position layout at low prices [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to weaken, while the spot market is generally stable. After short - term trading on epidemic issues, the market returns to the oversupply logic. A second bottom - testing is expected next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures have significant position - reduction and small price fluctuations. The spot price is stable with some local increases. The short - term price expectation is downward, and the medium - long - term fundamentals are expected to improve [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil rose by 0.97% and 0.50% respectively, while rapeseed oil fell by 1.42%. In the short - term, palm oil is at risk of volatility as the market awaits the MPOB report; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives but needs time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of drivers. In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil's price trend depends on China - Canada trade relations; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) increased from 8678 to 8762, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price increased by 2.13%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) decreased from 9757 to 9618, a weekly decrease of 1.42%, and the spot price decreased by 0.89%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) increased from 8040 to 8080, a weekly increase of 0.50%, and the spot price decreased by 0.57% [4] Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of December 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 140 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week), 427 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan/ton), and 34 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 682 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 1.02 million tons (down 0.23 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons (down 1.36 million tons), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 117.88 million tons (down 0.11 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 184.25 million tons (down 1.7 million tons) [10] Palm Oil Supply - Side - As of December 5, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8864 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 128 yuan/ton (up 96 yuan/ton). SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in November was 1.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [13] Soybean Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 956.70 million tons (up 14.2 million tons from the previous week), the main oil factory soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons (up 18.97 million tons), and the oil factory operating rate was 57% (down 2% from the previous week). As of December 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 531.40 yuan/ton (up 1.8 yuan/ton) [16] Rapeseed Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the total oil factory rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (the same as the previous week), and the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2260.60 yuan/ton (up 153.8 yuan/ton) [19] Demand - Side - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 300 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 3500 tons. The POGO spread was 422.74 US dollars/ton (up 46.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [22] Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the revocation of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to US biofuel policies. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations. - Abroad: US soybeans are affected by South American weather and US soybean exports. South American weather in southern Brazil and Argentina will be dry before mid - December. Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high due to falling exports and record - high production. - Import and Pressing: The oil factory operating rate decreased by 2% from the previous week, and soybean inventory increased. The oil factory rapeseed inventory remained at 0.1 million tons. - Inventory: As of November 28, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory, palm oil factory commercial inventory, and national soybean oil factory inventory all decreased. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil rising 2.13%, rapeseed oil falling 0.89%, and soybean oil falling 0.57% [23] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Wait for the MPOB report for palm oil and pay attention to volatility risks; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; closely monitor China - Canada trade relations for rapeseed oil; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings - Biofuel policy, China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [27]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and oil market is in a state of consolidation, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. The short - term market will continue to play around Sino - US trade progress and inventory changes, with soybean and oil futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile". The reference view is also "weak and volatile" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean market is in a consolidation phase with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. US soybean futures prices are oscillating around 1100 cents, and the market is focusing on the details of a possible 12 million - ton soybean purchase agreement between China and the US. The domestic spot market has significant pressure, with soybean meal inventory rising to 1.145 million tons and contract volume dropping by 10.31%, indicating weak demand. Caught between high costs and weak reality, oil mills are accumulating inventory, and feed enterprises mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "strong and volatile". The reference view is also "strong and volatile" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is showing a significant differentiation pattern. The Malaysian palm oil market has declined for four consecutive days, mainly due to a 16.4% year - on - year decline in Malaysia's exports from November 1 - 25, which has intensified market concerns about the weakening supply - demand situation. Domestic palm oil inventory has increased by 35,100 tons to 591,600 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Recently, the trend of palm oil is closely linked to the international oil and fat sector. After a continuous decline, the palm oil market may fluctuate strongly due to the rebound of US soybean oil futures prices [7]. 3.3. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "strong and volatile". The reference view is "strong and volatile" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].