Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 12.45 [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of RMB 19.42 billion, a decrease of 8% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 610 million, an increase of 5% quarter-on-quarter and 213% year-on-year [1]. - The polyester chain is expected to recover due to a slowdown in industry capacity growth and a potential improvement in domestic demand [1][3]. - The report highlights that the main raw material prices have decreased, which has helped improve the company's gross margin [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company achieved a gross margin of 7.7%, up 1% year-on-year and 4.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company’s main products, POY, FDY, and DTY, had sales volumes of 1.81 million tons, 450,000 tons, and 240,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +8%, and +4% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to improve as domestic demand recovers and textile exports increase, alongside a more favorable supply structure due to reduced capacity growth [3]. - New projects are progressing as planned, with significant investments in expanding the polyester and fine chemical industry chain [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, estimating net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 2 billion, RMB 2.4 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18 [4][10]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, based on its high proportion of polyester business [4].

长江期货PTA月报 终端需求受限，聚酯远期偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-30 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 02 供应方面：减产降负，供应减少 03 需求方面：终端不佳，需求受限 04 逻辑与展望：终端受限，远期偏弱 目录 05 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 01 行情回顾-4月PTA先跌后反弹 n 4月PTA期货主力合约期价先跌后反弹，主要受 国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初，受美国 关税政策等不确定因素影响，国际油价暴跌，成 本端支撑不足，PTA价格重心持续下滑。另外， 终端外销订单暂缓或取消，传统旺季下终端负荷 下降，下游聚酯负荷缓慢下降，成品库存也处于 累库阶段，市场信心不足，价格走低；月中贸易 争端有所反复，下游多持观望态度，聚酯价格低 位震荡；月底关税争端有缓和迹象，商品情绪修 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/4/29 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/4/25 | 2025/4/28 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4415 | 4585 | 170.00 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4188 | 4210 | 22. 00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨126至6176。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4400 | 4480 | 80. 00 | 短纤生产企业价格稳中有涨,贸易商价格偏暖, | | MEG收盘价 | 4160 | 4190 | 30. 00 | 下游按需采购,场内成交有限。1.56dtex*38mm | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6375 | 6460 | 85. 00 | 半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6 ...

中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图 聚酯链集体走强低硫燃料油午后拉涨 新华财经北京4月28日电（吴郑思、张瑶）尽管能化品种多数走强，但在金属、农产品等多数板块偏弱的拖累下，国内商品期货市场周一（4月28日）震荡 趋弱。截至收盘时，中证商品期货价格指数收报1376.15点，较前一交易日下跌5.55点，跌幅0.40%；中证商品期货指数收报1901.86点，较前一交易日下跌 7.67点，跌幅0.40%。 国际油价继续低位企稳，为国内能化板块震荡走升提供了积极助力，尤其是聚酯链商品集体表现活跃。截至28日收盘，短纤、低硫燃料油、PTA等均录得 2%左右的涨幅，分居涨幅排行前三位。瓶片、PX，沥青等涨幅也均在1%以上。 相比之下，金属板块延续调整，除了多晶硅再度重挫超3%、领跌商品市场以外，金银双双跌超1%，延续调整。另外，镍、锡、锌、碳酸锂等品种跌幅也 在0.63%至2.15%不等。 在油价回升的背景下，高低硫燃料油市场进一步企稳。其中，低硫燃料油期货在28日午盘终盘录得1.94%的涨幅，高硫燃料油则仅收涨0.46%。且从高低硫 燃料油自身来看，一方面随着气温升高，南亚中东等地区燃油发电需求旺季渐进，这利好燃料油需求。另 ...

聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空乙二醇期货来锁定 | EG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 4250-43 | | | | | 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 50 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心乙二醇价格 下跌 | 多 | | EG2509P4 | 买入 | | 70-90 | | | | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖出看涨期权降低资金成本 | 100 | | 50% | | | | | | | EG2509C4 400 | 卖出 | | 90-110 | | 采购管 理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单 情况进行采购 | 空 | 为了防止乙二醇价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入乙二醇期 货，在盘面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | EG2509 | 买入 ...

观点：聚酯开工仍有韧性，驱动不足 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 戴一帆（Z0015428） 周燕勤（F03129302） 周嘉伟（F03133676） 聚酯周报观点 MEG 核心观点：驱动不足，区间震荡 南华聚酯周报20250427 【库存】华东港口库至77.5万吨，环比上期增加0.4万吨。 【装置】中石化武汉28w近期停车，预计持续半个月；内蒙古建元26w近期重启；内蒙古兖矿40w近期重启； 【观点】 本周EG价格在需求悲观与关税豁免消息扰动下低位震荡。基本面方面，供应端油降煤升，总负荷小幅上调至68.47%（+3.15%）；其中 ，乙烯制方面茂名石化、天沙停车；煤制兖矿、榆林化学、中昆提负，煤制负荷大幅上调至63.85%（+14%）。效益方面，受绝对价格 小幅反弹影响，各路线利润小幅修复。库存方面，本周到港集中，港口发货表现不佳，维持刚需，下周一港口显性库存预计大幅累库8 万吨左右。需求端，长丝开工下调，短纤瓶片提负，聚酯总负荷维持高位93.6%（-0.2%）。长丝节前存在促销行为，终端部分刚需采 购低位补货，长丝库存小幅去化，但FDY和DTY环节库存压力仍然明显。终端受关税事件影响， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 12.45 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.2 billion, representing a 51% increase year-on-year [1][5]. - The polyester industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand recovery and improved textile and apparel exports, alongside a slowdown in production capacity growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.2 billion (RMB 930 million after deducting non-recurring items), marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 25.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 200 million, reflecting a significant increase of 283% year-on-year [1][2]. Sales and Margins - The sales volume for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 was 9.68 million tons, 2.14 million tons, and 1.12 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +23%, +46%, and +13% [2]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2%, 3%, and remained flat, respectively, leading to a slight decline in overall gross margin to 4.6% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to see a recovery driven by domestic demand and improved export conditions, with a favorable supply-demand balance expected as production capacity growth slows [3][4]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. Capacity and Projects - The company currently has a polyester polymerization capacity of 13 million tons per year and a polyester filament capacity of 13.5 million tons per year, holding an 18% market share in the domestic polyester filament market [4]. - Ongoing projects are progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved in the Fujian and Anhui projects, expected to be completed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, respectively [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.99 billion, RMB 2.38 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to a slow recovery in the polyester industry [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [5].

【SynBioCon】 获 悉， 4月22日， 华恒生物 发布2024年年报。 2024年，公 司实现营业收入21.78亿元，同比增长12.37%；归母净利润为1.90亿元， 同比下降57.80%；基本每股收益0.82元。 华恒生物表示，营收增长主要系产品销量较去年同期增加所致， 净利润下降主要系公司经营规模扩大，相关费用较去年同期有所增加；同时，受市场 竞争加剧影响，公司缬氨酸产品价格较去年同期下降，对公司利润产生影响，公司整体利润较去年同期减少。 2024年市场缬氨酸产品价格处于历史低 位。 | | | | | 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要会计数据 | 2024年 | 2023年 | 本期比上年同 | 2022年 | | | | | 期增减(%) | | | 营业收入 | 2.177.940.839.23 | 1, 938, 268, 117. 78 | 12. 37 | 1. 418, 651, 882. 92 | | 归属于上市公司 | 189, 518, 896. 19 | 449, 061, 466. 72 | -57.80 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the US-China tariff war, concerns about a global economic slowdown have grown, causing crude oil prices to weaken and stay low, and macroeconomic expectations to deteriorate. In the short term, pessimistic macro expectations may accelerate the implementation of polyester production cuts, and the main point of contention will be whether ethane-based ethylene glycol can reduce supply [3]. - The US tariff hikes have further impacted the export demand for terminal textiles and clothing, with an expected acceleration of the negative feedback effect. The high hidden inventory of ethylene glycol factories makes it difficult to achieve effective inventory reduction in April [4]. - The profit of ethane-based ethylene glycol is expected to be significantly in the red due to domestic counter-tariffs, and there is a possibility of plant shutdowns. The maintenance plans for coal-based ethylene glycol have been implemented, along with some unexpected maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in supply [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Ranges**: Ethylene glycol is forecasted to be in the range of 3800 - 4400, PX at 5500 - 6200, PTA at 3900 - 4500, and bottle chips at 5100 - 5700. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ethylene glycol is 30.73% (91.3% historical percentile over 3 years), PX is 44.15% (99.4%), PTA is 39.28% (93.6%), and bottle chips is 31.25% (98.6%) [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (25% EG2506 and 50% EG2506P4100) or buy put options and sell call options (50% EG2506P4100 and 50% EG2506C4300). - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy ethylene glycol futures (50% EG2506) or sell put options (75% EG2506P4100) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: On April 18, 2025, Brent crude was not available, while other products like naphtha CFR Japan, PX contracts, TA contracts, etc., had specific price values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. - **Spreads**: TA, EG, PF, and PX had various basis and month - to - month spreads with corresponding changes [5][7]. - **Processing Fees**: Different products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc., had specific processing fees and their daily and weekly changes [7].