Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal effect of external disturbances is decreasing, and domestic autonomy in the chemical industry is significantly increasing. The supply of the domestic chemical industry is expected to gradually see positive changes, and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies in other sectors may boost the valuation of the petrochemical and chemical industry [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [3][11]. - The global economy is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation for the crude oil market [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly, with high uncertainty, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, the national maximum power load reached a new high, exceeding 15 billion kilowatts [8]. b. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.67%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.57%, the US dollar index fell 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil continuous fell 0.22%, and other commodities also had different changes in prices [9]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. The social services sector led the rise, and the steel sector led the decline. The trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.66%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 4446 billion yuan. The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the "anti - involution" policy may increase the volatility of treasury bond futures prices [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil had a volatile night session. US refined oil demand decreased compared to the same period last year, and the US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. OPEC predicts that the global economy will improve in the second half of the year [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.59% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed weak consolidation. The consumption of polyolefins entered a relative off - season, and the cost support weakened. The market focus returned to the supply - demand side, but the supply - demand repair needs time [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and rebounded slightly at night. The summer maintenance reduced supply, and the glass inventory decreased slightly last week. Soda ash futures mainly declined, and its inventory increased. Both are in the inventory digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the digestion process [4][17]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new natural rubber in domestic production areas was affected by rainfall, and the raw rubber price was supported. The overall output in overseas production areas was smooth, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to increase. The market lacks continuous positive support, and the upward space is limited [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver rose and then fell, continuing to fluctuate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down. Although the long - term driving force for gold still exists, it is hesitant to rise. Silver is relatively strong [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The smelting output is under test, and the downstream demand is generally stable. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed higher at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory increased. The market sentiment improved, and the price rebounded in the short term, but it may still be in a volatile state [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has strong resilience. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory continues to decline. The steel export is affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, but the billet export is strong. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal increased last week, and the market had a positive feedback. The supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy and the Politburo meeting in July [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The USDA report was neutral to bearish, and the US soybean crop rating is good. The domestic supply is abundant, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the Malaysian palm oil export increased. With strong demand, the palm oil price is supported, and the overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC opened higher and fluctuated. The market is still gambling on the peak - season space of the European line. Attention should be paid to the announcement of the shipping company's August freight rates [30].

【黄金期货行情表现】 美国总统宣布将对等关税谈判推迟至2025年8月1日，宣布自8月1日起美国将对多国征收高额关税，例如 来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。美国财政赤字和关税政策加剧通胀担忧。美国6月核心 CPI环比增长0.2%，略低于市场预估的0.3%，前值为0.1%。美国6月CPI仅温和上升，核心CPI不及预 期，6月PPI也不及预期，市场怀疑关税对通胀的影响，但美联储或将仍保持谨慎，关税的对通胀的抬升 可能在未来一两个月的数据中体现。隔夜因为美联储主席的传言与澄清，7月16日美元指数大幅波动， 较前一交易日收低。同样原因，夜盘黄金和白银价格盘中一度大幅波动，后回归中间位置。交易策略： 黄金价格震荡，COMEX 金运行在 3250-3480 美元/盎司，国内沪金主连运行在 750-800 元/克之间，白 银在7月14日创新高之后，短线回调整理，多头继续持仓。 美国总统特朗普表示，斯科特·贝森特是接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席的一个选择，但暗示他不是 领先人选，因为其在财长职位上做得很成功。特朗普还再次抨击鲍威尔，称其及其同僚抓住了美联储翻 修工程的机会，称该工程一直受到成本超支的困扰。特朗普暗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's trade dynamics with the US and China are significantly influenced by tariff policies, leading to a mixed performance in export volumes and values, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Statistics - In June, Japan's exports to the US decreased by 11.4%, totaling 1.7071 trillion yen, marking a continuous decline for three months [1][2]. - The overall export value for Japan in June fell by 0.5% year-on-year to 9.1625 trillion yen, with a notable decrease in exports to China by 4.7% [1][2]. - For the first half of the year, Japan's trade balance showed a deficit of 2.2158 trillion yen, which is a 34.2% reduction compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Insights - In June, Japan's automotive export volume to the US increased by 3.4%, but the export value dropped by 26.7%, indicating a shift towards lower-priced models to mitigate tariff impacts [2]. - The overall export volume of Japanese automobiles grew by 4.4% in the first half of the year, while the export value decreased by 4.5% [3]. Group 3: Import Dynamics - Japan's total imports in June reached 9.0095 trillion yen, reflecting a 0.2% increase, marking the first rise in three months [2]. - The import value of crude oil decreased by 11.5%, with a slight decline in import volume by 0.8% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound, but due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [2][4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1598.1, with a 1.4% increase, a trading volume of 96,500 lots, and an open interest of 50,500 lots, an increase of 3,849 lots from the previous day [4]. - The basis continued to converge, but the spot market lacked sufficient momentum to support the continuous upward movement of futures prices. The main contract opened high and closed low but still rose slightly [4]. Freight Index - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1,218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1,435.21 points, down 0.50%; the US - West route was 1,186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1,733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2,099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%; the US - West route was 2,194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1,313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1,726.41 points, up 1.9%; the US - West route was 1,027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in June was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (a two - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (a two - month low) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to pull back today, consider adding positions; consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

在我们昨天文章《关税落地后首份财报季：谨慎情绪中暗藏市场期待》中，我们分不同板块概述了美股财报季开启后可能给市场带来的指引，而作为财报季 揭幕的银行股，无疑将决定本周市场在美国统战公布后的情绪跟进。 摩根大通(JPM)第二季度的业绩超出了预测者的预期，盈利约150亿美元。值得注意的是，其企业交易咨询业务的盈利有所增长，打破了全球贸易不确定性导 致的下滑预期。摩根大通将此归因于势头的转变，因为特朗普总统最极端的关税措施一再被推迟，以及企业税收减免政策的延长。 摩根大通股价今年已上涨约20%，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙则表现出了更高程度的乐观情绪，尽管他在第一季度的讲话中指出经济将面临"相当大的动 荡（包括地缘政治）"，但周二却突然转变态度，表示经济"具有韧性"，并且"税改的最终完成和潜在的放松管制对经济前景有利"。 花旗集团(C)季度利润超出预期，当季净利润为40.2亿美元，较去年同期增长25%，营收年增8％达217亿美元，每股收益1.96美元，系受惠于投行费用收入跃 增13％的加持，整体银行业务营收年增近19％至近19亿美元，但其指出宏观经济环境与去年同期相比有所恶化。 在银行业财报公布前夕，KBW银行指数 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.21% to $9,637/ton; SHFE copper main contract slightly declined 0.01% to CNY 77,950/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, with the loss narrowing. The US economic data and Fed's report showed some economic improvement, but the copper market was worried about the global economic outlook. The short - term inventory was accumulating, and the demand was weak due to the off - season. The copper price showed weakness, and its trend was unclear. If the 50% copper tariff became a reality, it would cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The Guinea's policy on bauxite index raised cost concerns. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to remain strong due to factors like low inventory and cost support. The new US tariff was about to be implemented, which might lead to global liquidity tightening. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulation was not smooth, and it was difficult for the price to fall significantly. The aluminum alloy was affected by the off - season [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel fell 1.48% to $14,990/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to CNY 119,510/ton. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan was announced, and the nickel ore price decreased slightly. The stainless - steel cost support weakened, and the inventory remained high. The demand for nickel in the new - energy industry increased slightly in July. The nickel price was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The price of LME and SHFE copper decreased. The US economic data and Fed's report affected the market sentiment. The inventory increased in multiple exchanges, and the demand was weak due to the off - season and trade policies. The price showed weakness, and the trend was unclear [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices rose. The Guinea's policy, domestic market factors, and inventory conditions affected the price trend. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to be strong, and the price was difficult to fall significantly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The price of LME and Shanghai nickel decreased. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan, nickel ore price, stainless - steel industry situation, and new - energy industry demand affected the nickel price. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of some copper products changed slightly, and the inventory increased in LME, COMEX, and social inventory. The import loss narrowed [3]. - **Lead**: The price of lead products decreased, and the inventory in LME decreased while the inventory in SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum products changed, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory of alumina [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of some nickel products increased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased. The stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc products decreased, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory [5]. - **Tin**: The price of tin products decreased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts showed the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts presented the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts displayed the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts showed the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts presented the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts showed the trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many spot leading enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He provides policy interpretations and writes in - depth reports [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides policy interpretations [47].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's strategists express optimism about the dollar-denominated corporate bond market, expecting it to continue its recent strong performance in the short term based on a comprehensive analysis of the current U.S. economic situation, corporate financial conditions, and market environment [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown due to tariff policies, which have significantly impacted global trade dynamics and created adjustment pressures on the domestic economy [3] - Tariff increases have led to rising costs for some imported goods, affecting consumer purchasing power and putting operational pressure on companies reliant on imported raw materials [3] - Trade-related indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI, have shown signs of slowing, indicating that tariff policies are gradually impacting the U.S. economy [3] Corporate Resilience - Despite the slight economic slowdown, corporate financial conditions are not expected to deteriorate significantly, reflecting strong corporate resilience [4] - Companies are effectively responding to challenges posed by rising costs through supply chain optimization, increased production efficiency, and product structure adjustments [4] - Financial reports indicate that most large corporations maintain robust profitability and cash flow, with no significant weakening in debt repayment capabilities [4] Market Stability - In the absence of an actual economic recession, it is unlikely that any factors will destabilize the market in the short term, reflecting the current stability of the bond market [5] - The U.S. economy, while facing slowing pressures, has not shown clear signs of recession, with a strong job market and low unemployment rates supporting stable consumer demand [5] - The Federal Reserve's relatively accommodative monetary policy and ample market liquidity provide a favorable environment for the corporate bond market [5] Bond Market Performance - Recent performance shows that dollar-denominated corporate bond yields remain stable, with credit spreads within a reasonable range, indicating low market concern regarding corporate credit risk [5] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are favored by risk-averse investors due to their high credit ratings and low default risk, while high-yield bonds attract yield-seeking investors, contributing to active market trading [6] Investor Guidance - The views of Morgan Stanley's strategists are significant for investors, suggesting that the dollar-denominated corporate bond market is likely to continue performing well in the short term [6] - Investors are advised to adjust their bond product allocations based on their risk tolerance to achieve stable returns while remaining vigilant about economic changes [6] - Key factors influencing the corporate bond market include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could affect overall bond yields and prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different industries affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, weather conditions, and trade policies. Short - term market risk preference is slightly bullish, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology growth assets on the basis of dividend assets [2][49]. Summary by Industry Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. In July, the negative impact of trade wars may outweigh the positive impact of geopolitical factors, causing oil prices to be under pressure. In August, there is a possibility of a price increase if the European diesel contradiction persists [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase plan, the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to rise. FU cracking is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's single - side trend follows crude oil, and its cracking may enter an oscillatory pattern [22]. - **Asphalt**: The supply increase of asphalt needs further observation, demand remains weak but has recovery potential, and inventory at a low level supports prices. The single - side trend follows crude oil, and the upward driving force is limited before demand improves [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle East production pressure persists, overseas prices are oscillating weakly, and the domestic market is experiencing weak supply and demand. The futures market is oscillating weakly [24]. - **Urea**: The supply is abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and the market is expected to be in a state of balanced supply and demand. The market is likely to oscillate within a certain range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has increased significantly, and ports are accumulating inventory. Some domestic enterprises may postpone maintenance. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support weakens as oil prices decline, and there is supply pressure in the short term. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter, and it is recommended to use a monthly spread band - trading strategy [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost end is oscillating, the supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in poor spot trading [28]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The polyethylene supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart, and the demand is weak. Polypropylene has bottom support from maintenance devices, but the demand is still weak [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply increases, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, and the futures price is expected to be weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens, dragging down PX. PTA has a driving force for upward repair of processing margins [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a possibility of supply contraction, and it is recommended to have a short - term long position, with the main risk being a decline in oil prices [32]. - **Short Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short fiber demand shows resilience, and it can be treated bullishly. Bottle chip production is cut, orders are weak, and the spot profit is recovering [33]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The performance of precious metals is sensitive to event - driven factors, and they are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales data [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and closed lower. It is recommended that short - position holders consider option strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market is fluctuating narrowly, and there is short - term callback pressure due to inventory accumulation in the off - season [5]. - **Alumina**: The upward trend of the alumina spot price eases, the production capacity is in a surplus state, and the futures price is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with weak demand but certain resilience due to tight scrap aluminum supply [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The price is under pressure to decline, and it is advisable to wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel market has room for rebound, and it is advisable to wait for a better short - selling position. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the spot trading is weak [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price declined, and it is recommended to short [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding, but the supply is abundant, and it is advisable to start short - position layout [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is slightly correcting, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the change in warehouse receipts [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is rebounding, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [14]. - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The steel price is strengthening again. The demand is weak, and the market is waiting for the implementation of substantial measures. The short - term trend may be volatile [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is rising. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is at a relatively high level, and the short - term trend follows that of steel products, with limited upward space [16]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating downward. The price increase is expected to be implemented, and the price follows that of steel products [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is increasing, and the price follows that of steel products [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is under pressure, and it follows the trend of rebar [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is under pressure, and it follows the trend of rebar [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: There is news about a potential Sino - US trade agreement, which affects the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. Attention should be paid to trade news and weather in the US soybean - producing areas [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans is rising, and attention should be paid to weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Palm oil is in an adjustment state. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy for vegetable oils in the long term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as potential imports from Australia [39]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is rebounding. Attention should be paid to weather in the northeastern region and policy changes [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn price is oscillating downward. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic corn market may continue to decline [41]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs has dropped significantly, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to decline in the medium term [42]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price is oscillating and correcting. The short - term downward space is limited, and the long - term cycle has not reached the bottom [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is growing well, and the USDA report is bearish. The Zhengzhou cotton price is restricted by weak demand, but the inventory is expected to be tight, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to production data and weather [45]. - **Apple**: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season apple production is estimated to be bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [46]. - **Timber**: The timber price is oscillating. The supply is limited, but the demand is in the off - season, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price is slightly declining. The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract will converge with the spot price, and the upward space of the far - month contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the spot price [21]. - **Stock Index**: The short - term market risk preference is slightly bullish. In terms of market style, it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology growth assets on the basis of dividend assets [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price is oscillating. The global interest - rate cut trend is slowing down, and the domestic bond market may experience increased volatility [50].

此外，特朗普当天在安德鲁斯空军基地接受媒体采访时还表示，他计划对包括非洲和加勒比地区国家在 内的较小国家征收10%以上的关税。他表示，可能会对来自至少100个国家的商品征收"略高于10%的关 税"。特朗普15日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文宣布，美国将对所有进口的印度尼西亚商品征收 19%的关税，而美国对印尼的出口将享受免关税和非关税壁垒待遇。 数月来，美国总统特朗普不断在宣布新措施、暂停和提高关税之间切换，导致依赖可预测贸易关系的企 业面临的不确定性增加。上周，特朗普先后致信20多个贸易伙伴和欧盟的领导人，称将从8月1日起对这 些贸易伙伴征收20%至50%不等的关税，但随后又迅速就加征期限"松口"。14日，特朗普称对俄罗斯感 到非常不满，威胁将对俄罗斯征收100%关税。特朗普称，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌冲突， 美国将对俄罗斯实施"非常严厉的、大约100%的关税"。同日，特朗普还表示，美方将就关税问题与各 国展开磋商，并且对包括欧洲在内的贸易谈判持开放立场。与此同时，欧盟方面也将前来与美方讨论贸 易问题。 美国总统特朗普15日表示，与越南的贸易协议接近完成。特朗普在华盛顿附近的安德鲁斯联合基地对记 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].