Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is experiencing its largest annual appreciation against the US dollar in eight years, with a 10% increase in 2025, outperforming other Southeast Asian currencies despite economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Baht Strength - The appreciation of the Baht began in mid-2024, coinciding with government economic stimulus plans and traders selling off the US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cuts [2]. - A significant portion of the Baht's recent gains is attributed to a 60% increase in gold prices, driven by a weakening US labor market and seasonal peaks in Thailand's tourism industry [3]. - The Trump administration's import tariffs have unexpectedly boosted Thailand's economy by encouraging local manufacturing for exports to the US, as tariffs on Thai goods are lower than those on Chinese products [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications of a Strong Baht - A strong Baht makes Thai products more expensive in international markets, leading to the slowest export growth in over a year [5]. - The tourism sector is under pressure as the strong Baht diminishes Thailand's appeal as a low-cost vacation destination, with a downward revision of foreign tourist arrivals expected [6]. - While a stronger Baht can reduce inflation for imported goods, the overall impact on an economy heavily reliant on exports and tourism is negative [6]. Group 3: Government and Central Bank Responses - The Thai government is addressing concerns from export-oriented businesses regarding the Baht's appreciation, but political instability complicates fiscal policy direction [7]. - The Bank of Thailand has intervened in the foreign exchange market to manage excessive volatility and has proposed increasing the offshore income retention limit for businesses [8]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding measures to mitigate the impact of gold prices on the Baht, including potential taxation on physical gold transactions [8].

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 海外流动性风险尚未解除，新一轮量化宽松有望重启 宏观经济/资产配置 内容提要： 程 伟 宏观分析师 从业资格证：F3012252 投资咨询证：Z0012892 TEL：0516-83831160 E-MAIL：chengwei @neweraqh.com.cn 近期报告回顾： 美联储降息周期重启，全球 经济及大类资产展望（季 报）20250930 全球贸易摩擦及地缘局势 缓和背景下，大类资产配置 （半年报）20250630 国际环境复杂多变，超常规 政 策 依 然 可 期 （ 年 报 ） 20250101 投资有风险 理财请匹配 进入 2026 年，美国减税政策对经济的刺激作用将开始显现，关税政策对物价的影 响可能在下半年消退，美联储进一步降息的门槛明显升高，利率点阵图维持对年 内降息一次的预测；欧元区经济复苏乏力，通胀稳定在 2%的目标附近，欧洲央行 货币政策在进行 8 次降息后进入观察期；日本经济保持温和复苏，央行维持缓慢 加息的节奏，逐步实现利率政策正常化，可能引发海外日元套利资金回流，加剧 金融市场波动。 中央经济工作会议要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财 ...

2026年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack加入美联储鹰派阵营，明确表示未来几个月内没 有必要降息，并质疑11月通胀数据的准确性。这一立场进一步强化了美联储暂停降息周期的信号，为明 年货币政策路径增添更多不确定性。 据《华尔街日报》周日报道，Hammack在接受采访时表示，美联储至少在明年春季之前无需改变目前 3.5%-3.75%的基准利率区间。她此前曾反对近期的降息决定，更担心通胀居高不下而非劳动力市场疲 软。 市场对美联储2025年降息预期持续降温，交易员预计明年上半年降息概率较低，6月降息可能性约为 50%。 CPI数据准确性存疑 Hammack对当前通胀形势表达了更多担忧。她向《华尔街日报》表示，11月CPI 2.7%的同比增幅可能因 数据扭曲而低估了实际的价格涨幅。 虽然Hammack认为当前政策利率处于中性水平附近的合适位置，但她更倾向于采取略微更具限制性的 立场，以对通胀施加更大压力。 作为曾反对美联储过去几个月累计降息75个基点决定的官员，Hammack的担忧主要集中在通胀居高不 下，而非促使其他官员降息的潜在劳动力市场脆弱性。 Hammack的鹰派表态呼应了其他美联储官员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take full profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. The NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period. The SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. The NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points on December 19, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period. The CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period. The SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period. The CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [1] PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business climate improving. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 but still above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, recording the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [2] Market and Contract Information - On December 19, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2] - The market's long - short game is fierce, with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend [1][2] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position and have been advised to take full profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3] - On December 19, Turkish, US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials held a meeting in Miami to discuss the implementation of the first - phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. Although there have been multiple violations, the cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US dollar has weakened since 2025 due to policy, funding, and fundamental factors, with potential future support for the dollar from various economic conditions [1][2][19] - Since the beginning of 2025, the dollar has depreciated significantly, dropping from around 110 to a low of 96.98, and has remained below 100 despite some recovery in the fourth quarter [2][19] - The article highlights three deviations from traditional expectations regarding the dollar's performance: the dollar's depreciation despite tariff increases, the lack of support from high interest rates, and the dollar's failure to strengthen as a safe-haven asset during market turmoil [2][5][8] Group 2 - From a policy perspective, the economic policies of the Trump administration, particularly the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," have directly contributed to the dollar's depreciation, with significant increases in overall tariff levels [11][12] - The sustainability of the US fiscal deficit has come under scrutiny, with the deficit reaching 6.4% of GDP and government debt at 98% of GDP, raising concerns about the long-term viability of US fiscal policy [12][19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been challenged by external pressures from the Trump administration, which has led to increased uncertainty in monetary policy decisions [12][19] Group 3 - Changes in foreign investment structures have amplified dollar volatility, with a shift towards equity investments and a decrease in government bond holdings, leading to increased sensitivity to market fluctuations [15][17] - The proportion of private sector investors has increased significantly, which tends to react more quickly to market conditions compared to official sector investors, further contributing to dollar volatility [15][17] - The dollar's depreciation has also been influenced by private sector investors beginning to hedge against currency risk as the dollar shows signs of weakness [17][19] Group 4 - The US economy has shown signs of slowing growth, with GDP growth at 1.9% in the first half of 2025, the lowest since 2023, and inflation risks rising due to tariff impacts [18][19] - Employment data has also been weak, with significant downward revisions in non-farm payroll numbers, indicating a potential drag on consumer spending [18][19] - Despite these challenges, the dollar may not experience rapid depreciation in the short term due to relative economic resilience compared to other developed economies [19][20] Group 5 - In the short term, the dollar's exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by the relative strength of the US economy and a potential easing of policy uncertainty from the Trump administration [19][20] - However, the volatility of the dollar may increase due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies and the reliance on stock market performance to attract capital inflows [20] - Long-term challenges to the dollar's status as a global currency are emerging, with concerns about the stability of the dollar's value and the increasing sensitivity of US Treasury bonds to market risks [20][23]

铜周报：长单TC好于预期，铜价高位盘整 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，略好于市场预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高，显示劳动力市场持续降温。11月核心CPI降到2.6%，其中一部分原因或 是由于美国政府关门导致的数据问题，市场对2026年降息两次的预期没有变。明年5月鲍威尔任期结束，美联储新任主席或在1月出结果，后续市场预期2026年美国货币政策 仍保持宽松。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中国冶炼厂与antogagastat敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费benchmark为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，远好于最初-10到-15美元/吨的预期，在高升水和高硫酸价的情况下，国内外 冶炼厂减停产风险下降，原料供应问题仍是未来影响冶炼厂生产的关键因素。 12月19日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.65美元 ...

在美国政府结束"停摆"后，通胀数据意外低于预期。 据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 明年1月美联储降息的可能性仍然较低，但交易员已开始上调明年3月降息预期。芝商所美联储 观察工具显示，明年3月降息概率为60%，高于此前一天的约50%。 记者丨吴斌 编辑丨张星 题：首先，因为政府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据，11月CPI只有同比数 据，没有环比数据。 其次，由于政府停摆11月14日才结束，数据收集工作滞后，部分价格调查、样本采集和行政数 据输入在时间上存在滞后或集中补报，一些服务类、政府相关支出和监管价格的更新可能被推 迟或以估算值替代。例如，10—11月居住CPI环比均值接近0%，而前几个月环比增速在0.2% —0.3%，出现明显的误差，表明在部分数据缺失的情况下，劳工部在技术处理上的问题令数 据存在失真。 尽管这份因政府停摆而推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但考虑到报告的编制存在问 题，经济学家持谨慎态度，这一积极 ...

Core Points - Nike reported a significant decline in net profit for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with a net profit of $792 million, down 32% year-over-year [1] - The company's revenue showed modest growth, reaching $12.4 billion, an increase of 1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The stock price of Nike fell over 10% following the earnings report, reflecting market concerns [1] Financial Performance - Net profit for the quarter was $792 million, a decrease of 32% year-over-year [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $12.4 billion, representing a 1% increase from the previous fiscal year [1] - Earnings per share were $0.53, down from $0.78 in the same quarter last year [1] Market Impact - The decline in Nike's stock price affected other sports brands, with Puma and Adidas also experiencing stock price drops [1] - The company anticipates a $1.5 billion increase in costs due to U.S. government tariff policies throughout the fiscal year [1] - Nike expects slight declines in revenue and gross margin for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 [1] Strategic Initiatives - Nike's CEO, Elliott Hill, has restructured the management team and plans to launch specialized products around major sporting events, such as the 2026 World Cup [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent meeting between Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Chinese officials, marking the first high-level dialogue in eight years, which aims to restore cooperation and address economic concerns between Canada and China [1][3]. - The meeting is seen as a significant gesture from China, indicating a thaw in relations, despite Canada’s previous actions that led to strained diplomatic ties, including tariffs on Chinese products and accusations of election interference [3][5]. - Canada’s desire to improve relations with China is driven by the negative impact of Chinese countermeasures on Canadian exports, particularly in agriculture and energy, as well as pressure from the U.S. regarding tariffs [5][7]. Group 2 - U.S. President Trump expressed that he received an apology from Trudeau but remains firm on not resuming trade negotiations with Canada, particularly in light of a controversial anti-tariff advertisement published by Canada [1][5]. - The anti-tariff advertisement, which included edited remarks from former President Reagan opposing tariffs, has angered Trump, as it undermines his tariff policies and political stance [5][7]. - Trump’s insistence on a retraction from Canada regarding the advertisement highlights the political implications of trade policies and the importance of maintaining support among his voter base [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. beef industry initially thrived in the Chinese market, with exports reaching $1.6 billion in 2024, making China the third-largest buyer [1] - Following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration in March 2025, U.S. beef became more expensive in Chinese supermarkets, leading consumers to switch to Brazilian beef [1][3] - The export volume of U.S. beef to China plummeted from 2,000 tons at the beginning of the year to just 54 tons by March 20, 2025, significantly impacting Midwestern farmers [3] Group 2 - In April 2025, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on all imports, which China countered with an additional 34% tariff, raising the total tariff on U.S. beef to 56% [5] - U.S. beef exports to China fell by 70% in April, with Australian grass-fed beef taking its place on supermarket shelves due to lower prices [5] - By May, the number of U.S. beef processing plants eligible for export to China had dwindled, resulting in exports of less than 1,000 tons for the month [5][7] Group 3 - By July 2025, U.S. beef exports to China had dropped to 1,110 tons, a 92% year-on-year decline, while Brazil and Argentina maintained stable beef supplies to China [7] - The overall loss for the U.S. beef industry in the first half of 2025 exceeded $800 million, with the agricultural export deficit widening instead of narrowing as intended [7][9] - The failure to renew beef registration became a significant point of trade friction, leading to a collapse in exports and protests from farmers [9] Group 4 - By August 2025, U.S. beef exports to China had dwindled to a few million dollars per month, with many processing plants facing financial difficulties and some going bankrupt [11] - Although a temporary agreement in November 2025 led to a slight recovery in exports, the overall export value to China was projected to drop by 53% to $484 million in 2025 [11] - The trade conflict highlighted the need for U.S. producers to adapt to a more diversified procurement strategy from China, as farmers faced tightening conditions [11]