Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both declining over 1%, while the ChiNext Index fell over 2% [1] - By the end of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.85 points, down 1.22%, with a trading volume of 482.6 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12866.09 points, down 1.88%, with a trading volume of 641 billion; the ChiNext Index closed at 3063.97 points, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 293.1 billion [1] Sector Performance - Retail and dairy sectors showed the highest gains, while precious metals, film and television, and Hainan sectors experienced the largest declines [2] - The retail concept remained active, with Baida Group achieving four consecutive trading limits, and Hongqi Chain and Guangbai Co. both achieving two consecutive trading limits [3] Institutional Insights - Furuong Fund noted that the Central Economic Work Conference maintained a "steady progress" approach, reaffirming "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," providing stable policy expectations for the market [4] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlighted that the electric grid and industrial control sectors are expected to perform steadily upward by 2025, emphasizing structural investment opportunities [4] News Developments - The China Securities Association established a whistleblower mechanism targeting four types of unfair competition behaviors among IT service providers in the securities industry [5] - Hongmeng Zhixing has initiated L3 conditional autonomous driving testing in Shenzhen, aiming to validate the safety and maturity of the L3 system through real-world data [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized accelerating the establishment of mechanisms to expand domestic demand and remove unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automotive and housing [7]

下跌方面，影视院线概念集体大跌，博纳影业2连跌停。海南板块下挫，海南瑞泽跌超9%。板块方面，零售、乳业等板块涨幅居前，贵金 属、影视院线、军工、海南等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌1.22%，深成指跌1.88%，创业板指跌2.35%。 今日早盘，A股市场早盘震荡调整，沪指、深成指跌超1%，创业板指跌超2%。沪深两市半日成交额1.12万亿，较上个交易日缩量606亿。全市场超 4400只个股下跌。 从板块来看， 零售概念反复活跃， 百大集团4连板，红旗连锁、广百股份双双2连板。消息面上，12月16日出版的第24期《求是》杂志发 表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。文章指出，扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经 济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活 的需要。要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 智能驾驶概念逆势拉升， 浙江世宝、索菱股份等十余股涨停。数字货币概念走强，翠微股份、航天信息涨停。消息方面，12月15日，工信部公布了 两款L3级自动驾驶车型产品准入 ...

A股三大指数集体下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌1.22%报3820.85点，深成指跌1.88%，创业板指跌 2.35%，北证50指数涨1.10%，沪深京三市半日成交额11396亿元，较上日缩量589亿元，超4400股下 跌。盘面上，《求是》杂志发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，零售、食品乳业等板块逆势上涨； 贵金属、影视院线、海南板块跌幅居前。 ...

12月16日，A股市场风格急剧切换，科技板块大幅回调，前三季度相对低迷的汽车、商贸在内的可选消 费板块，则迎来反转时刻。 截至10:55，可选消费ETF（562580.SH）持仓股内，永辉超市、北汽蓝谷、中公教育齐齐涨停。 政策面上，大消费迎来诸多利好： 12月15日，《求是》杂志发表高层重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，提出"要加快补上内需特别是消 费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。"12月14日，三部门联合印发《关于加强商务和 金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》，提出：结合地方实际探索运用融资担保、贷款贴息、风险补偿等 多种方式，加强财政、商务、金融政策协同配合，引导信贷资金加大向消费重点领域投放。 ...

2025年12月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：外强内弱，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：短期回调 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：内盘领涨，料继续突破 | 13 | | 钯：ETF增持边际上扬，继续冲击前高 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 黄金：如期降息 白银：高位调整 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金260 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping's article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move essential for economic stability and security, aiming to make it the main driver of economic growth [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to deepening reforms in the capital market to support stable employment and economic development [2] - The November macroeconomic data shows a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial added value, while retail sales grew by 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in consumption [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 130.9 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net cash injection of 8.6 billion yuan for the day [7] - The money market remains loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates declining to 1.274% and 1.444%, respectively [8] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market continues to adjust, with long-term bonds experiencing greater volatility; the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.65 basis points to 1.8590% [11] - The secondary market for credit bonds showed significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing drastic declines [13] - Several companies, including R&F Properties and Times China Holdings, announced bondholder meetings to discuss repayment arrangements amid market fluctuations [14][16] Group 4: International Market Insights - The New York Fed reported a significant drop in the manufacturing activity index, indicating a contraction in the sector, although future outlook indicators improved [5] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.18% [21] - Major European economies saw a decrease in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down to 2.85% [24]

锌：短期回调 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23430 | -0.74% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3139 | -1.84% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 168578 | -20452 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 18374 | -1756 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 83302 | -8072 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 223499 | 3372 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 70 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 90.6 | -82.21 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating, with a weakening trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Consolidating at the bottom [6] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [7] - Edible oils: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybeans No. 2: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features a "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" situation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coal and coke market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information after the Central Economic Work Conference, and the change from supply - side policy expectation to demand - side negative expectation due to the steel export policy. However, some short - term factors provide support [2]. - The steel market, including rolled steel and rebar, is affected by the steel export policy and weak domestic demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - The glass and soda ash markets are facing weak demand, and the future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market, including stock index futures/options and Treasury bonds, is influenced by economic data and policy signals. The market shows different trends such as oscillation, rebound, and consolidation [4]. - The precious metals market, with gold and silver, is supported by the central bank's gold - buying behavior, de - dollarization, and geopolitical risks in the long - term, but short - term factors like the Ukraine peace talks and economic data can cause fluctuations [6]. - The wood and pulp market, including logs, pulp, and offset paper, has different supply - demand situations. Logs are expected to consolidate at the bottom, pulp may normalize to a supply - demand - balanced situation, and offset paper is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The edible oils and meal market, including various oils and meals, is affected by factors such as US soybean policies, South American soybean production expectations, and domestic supply - demand relationships, with prices oscillating weakly [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply, some improvement in demand, but overall prices are expected to decline [8]. - The soft commodity and polyester market, including rubber and various polyester products, has different supply - demand and price trends. Rubber is expected to oscillate weakly, and polyester products show various trends such as wide - range oscillation, weak oscillation, and sidelining [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing quarterly, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative for raw materials. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: After the Central Economic Work Conference, there was a lack of incremental policy information. The steel export policy shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production reduction expectations, and the "anti - involution" strategy provide some support [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations. Domestic demand, especially in the real estate sector, is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Glass and soda ash: Glass prices are weakening, with low processing orders and high inventory. The cold - repair plan of some glass factories is being delayed. Soda ash is also in a weak situation, and the future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: On the previous trading day, major stock indices showed declines. The publication of President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand. Economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and retail sales show the current economic situation [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The market trend shows a slight rebound [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold - buying. Gold has strong support from factors such as de - dollarization,避险需求, and central bank purchases in the long - term. Short - term factors like the Ukraine peace talks and economic data can cause price fluctuations [6]. Wood and Pulp - Logs: Port daily shipment volume and national daily delivery volume are decreasing. Import volumes from New Zealand and domestic imports are also decreasing. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices are running weakly. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: Spot market prices are weakening, but cost support is increasing. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory, with poor demand. Under the influence of positive factors, prices are trending upward, but may return to a supply - demand - balanced situation [7]. - Offset paper: Spot market prices are stable. There is still supply pressure, and demand is weak overall. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Edible Oils and Meal - Edible oils: US soybean crushing is at a high level, but the renewable energy blending obligation in 2026 is uncertain. Malaysian palm oil exports are decreasing, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively loose. US soybean has no export advantage, and the market has high expectations for South American soybean harvest. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight shows different trends in the north and south. The settlement price is falling, and terminal demand growth is limited. Although slaughtering rates are increasing, prices are expected to decline [8]. Soft Commodity and Polyester - Rubber: Different rubber - producing regions have different supply situations. Demand is affected by tire enterprise capacity utilization. Inventory is accumulating seasonally, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating due to factors such as crude oil inventory and supply - demand relationships. PTA, MEG, PR, and PF show different price trends based on their respective supply - demand and cost situations [11].

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" and "deepening the implementation of special actions to boost consumption," which aligns with the core mission of the consumer finance industry [1] - Financial leasing companies are focusing on providing services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to enhance their growth potential, indicating a shift towards supporting equipment procurement and leasing needs [1] - The conference highlighted the need for financial institutions to develop new productive forces tailored to local conditions, guiding them towards high-quality transformation and development [1] Group 2 - Huarong Financial Leasing aims to enhance its adaptability and ability to change by aligning with national strategies and responding quickly to policies related to carbon neutrality and large-scale equipment updates [2] - CITIC Financial Leasing plans to prioritize resources in strategic emerging industries such as technology innovation and green transformation, particularly in marine economy and high-end shipbuilding [2] - Non-bank financial institutions are committed to providing high-quality financial services to support the transition from development plans to practical implementation, in line with the conference's focus on balancing development and safety [2] Group 3 - CITIC Financial Leasing is focusing on internal development through risk control and enhancing its core leasing business to better serve the real economy [3] - The conference's proposal to build international technology innovation centers in key regions is being embraced by financial institutions, which are planning to offer customized financial services to support innovation and economic development [3] - Companies are leveraging policy and resource advantages in specific regions, such as Xiong'an New Area, to contribute to high-quality development and infrastructure investment [3]

中央经济工作会议强调，"坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动"。"中央经济工作会议更加坚 定了我们扎根县域、深耕'三农'的决心。"农业银行三农业务总监王兆阳说，将以会议精神为指引，围 绕强县富民产业、宜居宜业和美乡村建设等重点领域持续加力，为城乡融合发展注入源源不断的金融活 水。 邮储银行福建省福州市分行党委委员、副行长雷其才告诉《金融时报》记者，中央经济工作会议对 明年经济工作的部署让他更加确信，像邮储银行这样拥有广泛城乡网络和服务积淀的金融机构，将在农 村产权抵押创新、全产业链金融服务、数字化普惠金融等重点领域发挥更大作用。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。银行基层员工纷纷表示，将深入学习贯彻会议精 神，立足本职岗位，把思想和行动统一到党中央决策部署上来，以务实举措服务实体经济高质量发展， 为实现"十五五"良好开局贡献金融力量。 学深悟透 筑牢发展共识 中央经济工作会议对当前经济形势的科学判断和未来发展的战略部署，让银行基层工作人员深化了 对金融工作政治性、人民性的认识，进一步凝聚了服务大局的思想共识。大家普遍认为，会议明确的总 体要求和政策取向，为基层金融工作提供了清晰指引，坚定了大家 ...