投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险降温，贵金属调整 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-27 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4111.555 | 4251.448 | -139.893 | -3.29% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 938.10 | 999.80 | -61.7 | -6.17% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.97 | -2.8 | 0.83 | -29.64% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.33 | -53.63% | | 黄金SPDR ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around gold investment has intensified, with physical gold transactions and gold ETFs gaining market attention, but recent price corrections raise questions about gold's ability to preserve value [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold is traditionally viewed as a "safe-haven asset," but historical data shows significant price volatility, with potential for substantial losses during bear markets [1][4]. - From 2000 to present, gold has delivered an annualized return of approximately 11%, but it has also experienced prolonged bear markets lasting over a decade [1]. - Major bear markets since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system include a notable 66% decline from early 1980 to mid-1985, with other bear markets showing declines of 45%-49% [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The factors driving gold prices are complex and vary across different market cycles, with each bull and bear market influenced by unique economic conditions [3]. - Historical data indicates that gold prices can rise significantly during periods of economic instability and high inflation, while they tend to decline during economic recoveries and strengthening currencies [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risk Awareness - Investors are encouraged to educate themselves about gold's attributes, recognizing its roles as a currency, investment, and commodity, and its low correlation with stocks and bonds [4]. - Acknowledging the risks associated with gold investment is crucial, as price fluctuations can be severe, and losses are possible, contradicting the notion of gold being a "100% safe" asset [4]. - Investment in gold should be based on individual financial situations, risk tolerance, and investment horizons, promoting rational investment and scientific allocation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historically high level, with expectations of wide fluctuations in the future. The report suggests focusing on certain sectors due to rising market risk aversion and changing market styles [1]. Market Performance - During the week of October 20 to October 24, major global stock indices mostly rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 3.62%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.20%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 3.91% [2]. - Among the primary industries, nine sectors rose while two fell. The energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors saw the highest gains, increasing by 5.26%, 4.83%, and 4.15% respectively [2]. - In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 240.846 billion, a decrease of HKD 118.507 billion from the previous week [2]. Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of October 24, the PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.04 and 1.23, reflecting increases of 3.84% and 3.80% respectively, placing them at the 86% and 89% percentile levels since 2019 [3]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.29%, which is significantly below the historical average, indicating a low risk appetite among investors [3]. Investment Outlook - The U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in September, the highest since January, but below market expectations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a slight decline in growth rate in the third quarter [4]. - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session highlighted key economic goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and technological self-reliance [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1, but the situation quickly shifted towards a more conciliatory tone from U.S. officials, including Trump, who hinted at a potential visit to China early next year [2][4] - China dominates the global supply of medium and heavy rare earth elements, accounting for 99% of the market, making it essential for U.S. manufacturing and high-tech development [4] - The easing of tensions led to a significant rebound in stock markets, with U.S. tech companies reaching historical highs and A-shares also experiencing a strong recovery, particularly in high-tech sectors [5][6] Group 2 - High-tech sectors such as AI, the Nvidia supply chain, Apple supply chain, Tesla supply chain, robotics, and semiconductors are seeing strong rebounds due to their solid performance and growth potential [5][6] - The market may experience volatility until a final trade agreement is reached, but optimism surrounding the upcoming summit could shift investment focus from safe-haven assets to high-tech growth stocks [6][8] - The recent turnaround in U.S.-China relations presents new investment opportunities, particularly in high-tech growth stocks, which are expected to remain in the spotlight [8]

10月21日，黄金，这一古老的避险资产，上演了一场惊心动魄的"高台跳水"。 伦敦现货黄金价格在盘中一度大跌6.3%，最终收跌5.31%，不仅刷新了12年来的单日最大跌幅纪录，也成为了其有记录以来第15大的单日跌幅。这场突如其 来的巨震，甚至被高盛的交易员形容为一场"妖股式的崩盘"。 从10月21日盘中高点4375.59美元/盎司至今，现货黄金跌去近268美元/盎司，本周累计下跌3.35%，收于4107.92美元/盎司，结束连续9周的上涨。 然而，这场看似突然的"崩盘"并非毫无征兆。一系列技术指标的警报早已拉响。那么，这究竟是黄金长期牛市中的一次健康调整，还是狂热彻底逆转的开 始？ 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）通过对历史上14次黄金单日大跌的复盘发现，其后续走势出现了明显的分化。 四大警报早已拉响 在黄金行情急转直下之前，多项技术指标已经从不同维度发出了明确的警示信号。 首先，市场出现了"美股+金银+美元"同涨的异常组合。民生证券的分析师邵翔在其研报中指出，在大跌之前，市场出现了这种颠覆传统金融逻辑的罕见局 面。他认为，这种资产同涨的组合是不可持续的，并预示着短期内市场格局将出现调整。 另一个关键警 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has significantly appreciated recently, driven by safe-haven demand, leading to speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have intervened to curb its strength [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The Swiss Franc has experienced its ninth consecutive weekly increase, marking its best performance in two years [1]. - The exchange rate of the Swiss Franc against the Euro surged to a near ten-year high, approaching the critical level of 0.92 [1]. - Despite the Swiss policy rate remaining at zero, the Swiss Franc has seen the highest appreciation against the US Dollar among major developed currencies over the past month [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Risk-averse investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, with the Swiss Franc being a primary choice due to its stable economy and good governance [2]. - Analysts from Societe Generale noted that the risk of intervention by the Swiss National Bank is at its highest level [2]. - UBS analysts believe that the SNB may have already begun market intervention to lower the Swiss Franc's exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Swiss National Bank's Position - The Swiss National Bank does not comment on whether it intervenes in the currency market, and data proving intervention will be released later [3]. - The recent US-Swiss agreement not to manipulate exchange rates allows the SNB to focus on price stability while potentially using intervention to address deflationary pressures [3]. - The options market indicates that the SNB's unilateral actions may slow the appreciation of the Swiss Franc rather than reverse its upward trend [3]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The SNB's meeting minutes suggest that deflation is not a threat, with inflation expected to rise moderately in the coming months [4]. - Despite the Swiss Franc's strength against the US Dollar, it remains relatively stable against the Euro, with geopolitical shocks potentially driving funds into the Franc [4]. - Analysts expect the SNB to continue intervening in the 0.90-0.92 range to manage the Swiss Franc's strength [4].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market has seen spot gold prices drop below $4060 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 1% on the 24th [1] - Prior to this, spot gold experienced a significant correction, with a drop of 6.3% on the 21st, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013 [2] - Analysts from Guojin Securities attribute the rapid correction in gold prices to technical adjustments and changes in the macro environment, while maintaining that the long-term upward trend in gold remains intact due to structural erosion of the dollar's credit system [2] Group 2 - Haitong Securities highlights that the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations, providing solid support for gold prices [2] - The restructuring of the global order positions gold as the most suitable safe-haven asset [2] - The high gold prices have positively impacted the performance of gold-related listed companies, with significant profit increases reported [2] Group 3 - Shandong Gold expects to achieve a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [4] - Zhaojin Gold reported a net profit of 82.16 million yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 191.2% [4] - Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters reached 37.864 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.45% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices fell below $4100 per ounce, with a decline exceeding 1.00%, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment towards gold and related assets [1] Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.49% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) remaining flat, while the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.15% [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. September CPI data is a focal point for the market, with expectations for an increase from 2.9% to 3.1%, while core CPI is anticipated to remain at 3.1% [1] - Despite employment data being a primary focus for the Federal Reserve, CPI data could lead to significant market fluctuations, especially after a three-week data vacuum [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is nearly 100%, suggesting that current data may not influence this decision [1] - Lower-than-expected CPI data could further stimulate rate cut expectations for the end of the year into mid-next year, potentially benefiting gold prices by weakening the dollar [1] Long-term Outlook on Gold - Huatai Securities emphasizes that gold remains the most suitable safe-haven asset, with consensus on the long-term allocation value of gold-related assets unchanged [1] - The current short-term decline in gold prices does not affect the long-term bullish outlook, and the pullback may present an opportunity for increased positions [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $4120 per ounce after a brief pullback and subsequent rebound, with a significant increase of 57% year-to-date, highlighting its status as one of the best-performing assets of 2025 [1] - The recent rebound in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including investor repositioning ahead of key U.S. inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][3] - Record inflows into gold ETFs reached $26 billion in Q3, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion, indicating strong demand from both institutional and retail investors [3] Geopolitical and Trade Factors - The U.S. government's sanctions against Russian oil companies have intensified market demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as geopolitical risks rise [5] - Ongoing U.S.-China tensions, particularly regarding technology exports and tariffs, are contributing to a sustained demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - The potential for a prolonged U.S. government shutdown raises concerns about economic impacts, which could further drive investors towards gold [4] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Despite traditional headwinds such as a rising U.S. dollar index and increasing Treasury yields, gold prices managed to rebound nearly 1%, reflecting strong market expectations for Federal Reserve easing [3] - Historical data shows that gold typically rises by an average of 6% within 60 days following the start of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, providing a supportive backdrop for current gold price movements [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest potential selling pressure below $4150, with targets set around $4060 to $3960 [8]

Fundamental Analysis - The current price of spot silver (XAG/USD) is $48.56 per ounce, with a significant physical shortage in the silver market highlighting overall supply-demand tension in precious metals. COMEX warehouse silver inventories have decreased by 29 million ounces over the past two weeks, while the London market faces a shortfall of 100-150 million ounces, potentially impacting gold prices through arbitrage mechanisms, reinforcing a structural bull market [1][3] - The "physical squeeze" in the silver market, although not directly affecting gold, indicates pressure on the global precious metals delivery system. The upcoming U.S. Section 232 review of silver could classify it as a critical mineral, potentially leading to tariffs or export restrictions, which may indirectly influence gold pricing [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and the potential U.S. government shutdown could increase uncertainty in the market. The current rebound in gold prices signifies the continuation of a bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and institutional buying [4][5] Market Trends - The recent geopolitical developments, including sanctions against Russian oil companies, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This has led to a rapid recovery in gold prices after a significant drop, indicating that the demand is not merely speculative but driven by central banks diversifying their dollar holdings [4][5] - The European Central Bank has reported that gold now constitutes over 20% of its reserves, marking a structural shift in gold's role from a mere safe-haven asset to a strategic reserve asset [5] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently experiencing a price consolidation phase, with support around $46.90 and potential long positions near $47.50, targeting a profit range of $51.00 to $52.00 [8]