苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 13 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 【交易策略】 单边：震荡偏弱 套利：观望 期权：卖出看涨期权 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 本周纯苯和加氢苯开工提升，纯苯下游需求整体稳定，主港库存小幅下滑，纯苯对苯乙烯价差扩大，纯苯下游利润压缩，山 东流向华东的纯苯套利窗口关闭。6月多套重整和歧化装置检修结束，裕龙DCC、万华乙烯裂解以及埃克森美孚20万吨装置 投产， 裕龙石化乙烯和镇海裂解新装置有投产计划，纯苯进口到港依然偏多，随着纯苯新装置投产增加，纯苯未来供需结构 预计转为宽松。 ◼ 本周苯乙烯供增需减，港口库存小幅上升，苯乙烯现货基差走弱。苯乙烯非一体装置利润收窄，下游3S利润扩大。本周盛虹 45万吨/年苯乙烯装置重启投料，6月中旬，恒力、浙石化检修装置计划重启，苯乙烯供应预期增加。近期苯乙烯到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The results of the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current weak fundamentals of coking coal and coke remain unchanged, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - With the increase in the impact of summer high temperatures and heavy precipitation, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and their enthusiasm for production cuts is limited. The decline in iron - water production has slowed down and remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are trying to reduce inventory by controlling and reducing purchases, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. [6] - Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, with continuously and rapidly increasing passive inventory. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, the coke enterprises' production has slightly decreased. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts in the future. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] - In terms of coking coal supply, there have been many safety accidents in Shanxi coal mines recently, and with the arrival of the production safety month, the uncertainty of coal mine supply has increased. At the same time, due to inventory and loss pressure, more coal mines are reducing production, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is operating weakly, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Coke Futures - For J2601, yesterday's price was 12601, today's price is 1358.5, with a rise of 56; for J2605, yesterday's price was 1377.0, today's price is 1363.0, with a rise of 14.0; for J2509, yesterday's price was 9056T, today's price is 1345.0, with a rise of 8.5. [2] Coking Coal Futures - For JM2601, yesterday's price was 7925, today's price is 773.0, with a fall of 19.5; for JM2605, yesterday's price was 818.5, today's price is 802.5, with a fall of 16.0; for JM2509, yesterday's price was 778.5, today's price is 757.0, with a fall of 5.15. [2] Spot Market - Coke: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, Heze, and Tangshan all decreased, with a decrease of 70 - 75 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke in Rizhao Port, Shanxi wet - quenched coke, and Xuyang dry - quenched coke also decreased. [2] - Coking Coal: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal changed, with the low - volatile remaining unchanged and the medium - volatile decreasing by 53 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of some coking coal also changed, with the optimal coking coal warehouse - receipt price decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. [2] Coking Profit - The 01, 05, and 09 contract coking profits all decreased, with decreases of 16.0, 6.9, and 19.8 yuan/ton respectively. The Shanxi spot profit decreased by 62.4 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamentals - Coke: The daily average production of 247 steel enterprises' coke decreased by 0.04, a decrease of 0.08%; the daily average consumption decreased by 0.05, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6, an increase of 14.03%. [2] - Coking Coal: The daily average production of 110 coal - washing plants' clean coal decreased by 0.3, a decrease of 0.60%; the daily average production of 523 mines' clean coal decreased by 1.8, a decrease of 2.29%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal decreased by 27.4, a decrease of 3.24%. [2] 2. Night - session Review - The JM2509 contract of coking coal futures closed at 778 yuan/ton, and the J2509 contract of coke futures closed at 1336 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, down 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous day. [2] 3. Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will hold its first meeting. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. [4] - The price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. The trading volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 22.8% on June 6, while the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders increased by 4.9%. [4] - The planned output of 79 domestic hot - rolled strip steel mills in June 2025 is expected to increase by 18.11 million tons compared with May. The price of Mongolian imported coking coal has been declining since May to early June, with a cumulative decline of 15.06%. [5] - As of June 5, the freight volume of Xinjiang Railway this year reached 101 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The export volume of Mongolian coal from January to May 2025 decreased by 2.35% year - on - year, and the export value decreased by 40.77% year - on - year. [5] 4. Trading Strategy - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The results of the China - US economic and trade consultation may affect macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures are near the spot parity level, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - Steel consumption is seasonally weakening, but steel mills are still profitable, and their production - cut enthusiasm is limited. Steel mills are trying to reduce inventory and suppress raw material prices. Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, and there may be further price cuts. [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply has some uncertainties, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]

Core Insights - The essence of futures trading is to pursue simplicity, as complexity can lead to instability in a market that is already intricate [1][3][12] Group 1: Simplicity in Trading - Achieving simplicity in trading requires a certain level of understanding and self-awareness, which is a challenging process [3] - Successful traders maintain a distance from the market, ensuring they are neither too close nor too far [4] - Emotional interference must be eliminated to enhance the chances of success, and the focus should not solely be on trading [4] Group 2: Technical Simplification - Technical analysis should be simplified, avoiding complex software and excessive information [5] - The process of trading should involve reducing unnecessary elements, which leads to a deeper understanding of the market [5] - Self-discipline and awareness of personal limits are crucial traits of successful traders [5] Group 3: System Complexity and Errors - A trading system that is overly complex can lead to execution difficulties and poor fault tolerance [7][9] - The belief that adding more conditions to a trading system increases accuracy is a misconception, as market movements are inherently unpredictable [7][10] Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The principle of "大道至简" (the greatest path is the simplest) emphasizes that valuable insights are often the most straightforward [10] - Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, focus on risk avoidance and capital preservation as the core of their trading strategy [10][12] - Many investors overlook the importance of managing risk, leading to significant losses, while seasoned traders prioritize capital protection for reasonable returns [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a downward trend due to weak demand. However, with the recent rebound in coal port prices and potential concentrated agricultural demand and export stimulus next week, there may be a small - scale rebound in the urea market, but the overall trend remains bearish [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline during the day today. Upstream factory prices are diverging, with those having export orders remaining firm and those without facing significant sales pressure. The supply side has a daily output above 200,000 tons, which restricts the upside. The demand side is weak, with scattered agricultural purchases during the wheat harvest and a decline in the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate, which is about 10% lower than the same period last year. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, but there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton and closed at 1,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09%. The open interest was 244,734 lots (-977 lots). Among the top twenty - position holders, long positions increased by 3,146 lots and short positions decreased by 585 lots. On June 6, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,069, a decrease of 288 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are diverging. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,770 to 1,830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continues to move down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 110 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on June 6, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 玉米类市场周报 市场多空交织 期价维持窄幅震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡微涨。主力2507合约收盘价为2340元/吨，较前一周+4元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年6月1日当周，美国玉米 优良率为69%,一如市场预期的69%，前一周为68%,上年同期为75%。美玉米优良率向好，且中美 贸易关系有所缓和，市场忧虑远期进口压力。国内方面，东北产区饲料企业采购积极性一般，贸 易粮走货速度缓慢，市场购销活动较为清淡，加工企业开工率下调，企业继续接货意愿不强，日 常收购以随行就市为主。华北黄淮产区随着新麦大规模收割，新麦收购范围扩大，麦价回落，对 玉米市场情绪有所压制，部分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with prices likely to decline but limited by factors like secondary fattening and low frozen product inventory. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure. The futures market is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short - term [1]. - **Egg Market**: Short - term egg prices lack support due to weak post - festival demand. In the third quarter, supply and demand both increase, and price rebound is under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease [2]. - **Oil Market**: The current oil market shows differentiation. Palm oil is relatively strong, but the overall inventory accumulation trend in Malaysia restricts its rise. Soybean oil has supply pressure and uncertainty about biodiesel policies. Rapeseed oil has price support from the relationship between China and Canada, but there is short - term supply pressure [5][6][7]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the soybean meal market is expected to be in a wide - range shock. In the long - term, due to factors such as increased import costs and tightened supply and demand, the price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the corn price has support, and the futures price is expected to be in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while the price in Guangdong remained stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In June, the supply pressure is large, and the seasonal demand is weak. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 is increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a low - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in July - August 2025 is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, it is recommended to hedge when the price rebounds. For the 10 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Oil - **Palm Oil**: On June 5, the Malaysian palm oil futures price decreased. The export in May improved, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation trend remains. The 08 contract is in a shock stage after the rebound [3][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The EPA is about to announce the US biofuel blending plan. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. The domestic soybean to - port volume is large, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, and the price has support from the relationship between China and Canada [7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 2790 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 170 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the US soybean is expected to be in a shock. The domestic soybean supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is recommended to operate in the range of [2930, 3000] in the short - term and go long after the callback in mid - June [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port remained stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is expected to be stable and upward. The 07 contract is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.50 | 1,044.75 | 5.75 | | Soybean Meal Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,958 | 2,939 | 19.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/ton) | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (US cents/bushel) | 438.25 | 438.00 | 0.25 | | Corn Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,335 | 2,333 | 2.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/ton) | 2,330 | 2,330 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (US cents/pound) | 46.62 | 46.72 | - 0.10 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/ton) | 7,980 | 8,000 | - 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/ton) | 3,904 | 3,950 | - 46.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 8,530 | 8,600 | - 70.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian dollars/ton) | 695.10 | 699.80 | - 4.70 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 9,160 | 9,160 | 0.00 | | Egg Main (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,878 | 2,877 | 1.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/jin) | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 | | Pig Futures Main (Yuan/ton) | 13,485 | 13,490 | - 5.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/kg) | 14.21 | 14.21 | 0.00 | [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating in the report Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the rebound opportunities of urea in the future market and still suggest mainly buying on dips The reasons are that the market sentiment of coal has changed recently, which may reduce the drag on coal - chemical industry, and from the perspective of urea demand, the domestic drought has eased, June - July is the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of export policies and price decline will stimulate speculative demand, so the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad and the possibility of a deep decline is small [1] Summary According to Relevant Contents Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 5, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1670 yuan/ton, 1701 yuan/ton, and 1722 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 36 yuan/ton (- 2.11%), - 28 yuan/ton, and - 52 yuan/ton (- 2.93%) compared to June 4 Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed different degrees of change, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.16%) change in Shanxi, - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) in Henan [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 149 yuan/ton on June 5, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to June 4 The 01 - 05 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (- 8.47%) to 1080 yuan/ton on June 5 compared to June 4 Downstream prices such as compound fertilizer and melamine also showed different degrees of decline, for example, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 0.68%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1768 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1768 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1718 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1722 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the position was 245709 lots [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for coking coal on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased by 4.04%, reaching a price of 785.0 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The rise in coking coal futures indicates a positive market sentiment and potential demand increase in the industry [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On June 4, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 35,055 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.44%, and the open interest decreased by 3,727 lots to 67,873 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium to the main contract narrowed to 1,445 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 7,280 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.9%, and the open interest decreased by 19,865 lots to 180,300 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 425 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region during the wet season has led to the resumption of production, and large northwest factories will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang factories, and the upper pressure stems from high inventories and increased supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas [2]. - In the short term, the market has slightly recovered with the macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news and be vigilant against significant volatility risks [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3 to 7,175 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most 553 and 421 silicon products decreased, with the price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropping from 7,650 yuan/ton to 7,600 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed from 575 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 887 to 61,803, and the weekly inventories in various ports and factories also decreased [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 695 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polysilicon, dense material, and cauliflower material remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,140 yuan/ton to 1,445 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 350 to 1,920, and the weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 90,000 tons to 141,000 tons, while the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers remained stable, while the price of M10 single - crystal battery cells decreased by 0.01 yuan/watt [3]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, inventory changes, DMC weekly inventories, and polysilicon weekly inventories [19][21][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][30][33].

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