股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月11日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指反弹，静待中美谈判结果 市场回顾 1. 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，标普纳指刷新日高，中概指数涨幅扩大。 2. 美国据称接近达成协议，部分豁免对墨钢铁关税，美国钢铁股盘后跳水，墨西哥比索一度转涨。 核心观点 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，今天股指有所反弹，回补昨天部分跌幅。目前海外不确定性风险较大，同 时最新经济数据显示内需偏弱问题仍存，分别从风险偏好以及盈利预期两方面对股指上行有所抑制，短期 内指数持续上行有较大阻力。不过基本面偏弱且关税影响仍将继续的情况下，市场利好政策托底预期有所 上升，市场底部支撑力量仍较为充足，重点关注6月18日至19日召开的陆家嘴论坛，将发布若干金融政 策。短期内建议观望为主，等待中美贸易谈判的结果。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.75%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1599亿元。 期指方面，IF放量上涨，其余品种均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 IH升贴水率 sour ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an increase due to positive stimuli, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 12,867 billion, a decrease from 14,514 billion the previous day [1] - Most sectors saw gains, particularly rare earths, gaming, energy metals, insurance, automotive parts, securities, trade, non-metallic materials, jewelry, and colored metals [1] Trade Negotiations - The rise in A-shares was primarily linked to progress in US-China trade negotiations, with officials concluding a two-day meeting in London [1] - Chinese and US representatives reported professional and candid discussions, reaching a framework to implement agreements from previous high-level talks [1] - Further details regarding US-China trade negotiations are expected in the coming days, with a likelihood of positive developments [1] External Market Influences - US stock markets continued their recent upward trend, with all three major indices showing slight increases [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was stable around 7.188, while the US dollar remained in a consolidation phase due to various offsetting factors [2] - Market expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have diminished, now anticipating only one cut for the year [2] Future Market Focus - The A-share market's performance is expected to be influenced by ongoing US-China trade discussions, with reduced uncertainties likely leading to diminished trade-related volatility [2] - Attention may shift towards domestic economic data and potential easing policies, especially following disappointing May import/export and price data [2]

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，目前中美谈判传出来信息比较积极，关注具体情况。棉花现货成交一般,贸易商采购比较积极,甚差稳中 偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货,市场信心不足,近期下游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加，压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格 坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少，基差持续偏强，市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight market trends showed positive signals for the Sino-US negotiations. The US was more positive, while China was neutral. It's uncertain if there will be a third round of talks. The market is expected to repair in the short - term, and the strategy should gradually tilt towards technology. For the four major stock index futures, the balanced allocation of IH and IM can be tilted towards IM [3][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in the US in May was 98.8, higher than the expected 95.9 and the previous value of 95.8, indicating a recovery in US business confidence. The Sino - US negotiation in London lasted from 5 pm yesterday to 4 am today. The US Treasury Secretary said the talks were productive, while China's Ministry of Commerce official said the communication was professional, in - depth, rational, and candid. Overnight market trends reflected positive signals for the negotiation [1][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Tuesday, the broader market opened higher but oscillated and declined by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.17%. The sharp decline might be due to concerns about the negotiation and quantitative selling triggered by market rumors. Sectors such as beauty care, banking, pharmaceutical biology, and transportation led the gains, while military industry, computer, electronics, and communication led the losses. There were 1260 rising stocks and 4034 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to stop Trump from sending troops. The White House refuted the rumor that Treasury Secretary Bessent would be the next Fed Chairman. Xi Jinping had a phone call with South Korean President Lee Jae - myung. The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will cancel the household registration restriction for flexible employees to participate in insurance in the employment place and expand the pilot of occupational injury insurance for new - form employment. The "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Live - streaming E - commerce" is soliciting public opinions. The head of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to listen to private enterprises' opinions on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8][9] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight market trends were positive for the Sino - US negotiation. The market is expected to repair in the short - term. The strategy should gradually tilt towards technology under the technology and consumption dumbbell strategy. For the four major stock index futures, the balanced allocation of IH and IM can be tilted towards IM [3][10] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report provided detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index futures contracts, as well as their corresponding basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates [12][13] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report presented data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, monthly, daily, and weekly changes of various indexes and sectors. It also analyzed the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and provided information on the valuation of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [36][38][39] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report showed data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates [51][52][53]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of $3349.1 per ounce before closing at $3322.6, reflecting a slight decline of 0.09% [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing strong support for gold prices, as recent military actions have escalated [5] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations to 2.3% for 2025, citing trade barriers and rising tariffs, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations commenced in London, with positive progress reported by the U.S. Commerce Department, which could impact global economic conditions and gold prices [3] - If negotiations yield favorable outcomes, market risk appetite may temporarily increase, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [3] - Long-term implications of the trade war, including supply chain restructuring and economic slowdown, may continue to support gold demand [3] Group 3: U.S. Monetary Policy and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Market anticipations suggest a potential 25 basis point rate cut may occur later in 2025, influenced by rising inflation pressures [4] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is crucial for assessing economic health and guiding expectations for the dollar and Fed interest rates, which could impact gold prices [4] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices remain near seven-week highs, with WTI crude reaching $65 before closing at $64.47 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $66.72 [8] - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing to ease previous production cuts, which may exert pressure on oil prices [8] - The balance between global trade developments and OPEC+ production increases creates a complex environment for oil price movements [10]

【消息面】 周三亚市早盘，黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3335美元。金价周二冲高回落，因为俄乌冲突持续不断，世界银行也下调全球经济增速预期，金价周 二盘中一度涨至3349.01美元，但随后回吐涨幅，收报3322.36美元，因交易员密切关注中美贸易谈判，其结果可能缓解贸易紧张局势并提振全球经 济，从而减少对避险资产的需求，而美股持续上涨也打压黄金的避险买需。 短期内，金价可能在3250至3350美元区间内震荡，等待CPI数据和贸易谈判的进一步明朗。长期来看，若全球经济不确定性持续加剧，黄金作为 避险资产的吸引力将进一步凸显，但贸易局势的缓和可能使其短期承压。 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，黄金维持3300-3350美元区间震荡，亚盘黄金跌至日线中轨3302美元触底反弹，晚间黄金冲高3349美元回落，收在3322.7美 元，日线录得十字星，KDJ指标在高位2次死叉，附图拐头向下，MACD指标快慢线在0轴上方死叉，绿色空头动能增量，日线走势依旧偏空。 2，小时图，黄金早间探底3315.2美元回升，当前运行在60日均线上方3338美元，KDJ指标低位金叉，附图拐头向上，MACD指标快慢线在0轴附 近金叉，红色多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the global economic slowdown, which provide a solid support for gold prices, while optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a strengthening dollar limit its upward potential [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $3349.01 per ounce before closing at $3322.36, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.09% [1]. - The current trading range for gold is expected to be between $3250 and $3350 per ounce in the short term, pending further clarity from CPI data and trade negotiations [4]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth forecasts, indicating significant resistance due to rising trade barriers from tariffs implemented since Trump's administration [3]. - A potential increase in US tariffs by an additional 10% could lead to a further 0.5% decline in global economic growth, exacerbating trade stagnation risks [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The EU's new sanctions against Russia, including lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, may further elevate energy prices and indirectly affect global inflation expectations, providing some support for gold [4]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown create a strong bottom support for gold prices, while easing trade tensions could pressure gold in the short term [4].

Group 1 - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals is expected to continue, supported by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] - The World Bank has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating the weakest decade of global growth since the 1960s [1] - The current complex global trade and financial environment, along with trends of "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," enhance the allocation and hedging value of gold [1] Group 2 - There is still a divergence in the market regarding gold, influenced by the easing of trade conflicts, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and reduced central bank gold purchases [2] - Wells Fargo forecasts that gold prices will reach $3,600 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty [2] - Central banks currently account for 21% of global gold demand, and their continued purchases are expected to support gold prices [2] Group 3 - Capitalight Research anticipates that the gold market may remain in a consolidation phase throughout the summer, but a retest of April's historical highs is likely [3] - Economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil are expected to support gold prices in a stagflation environment over the next two years [3] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets is also expected to support gold prices, regardless of Federal Reserve interest rate policies [3]

换资前言： 黄金技术面分析：黄金目前调整依然没有走完，6月份，将是黄金调整的最后时间点，目前市场存在较大分歧，多空胶着。但时间未到，调整未完，再怎么 胶着，也不能激进追涨。自3500高点以来，连续测试了3430以及上周3403的高点均回落，但调整幅度不够，调整时间也不够。黄金现在就是震荡节奏，起起 伏伏，暂时还没有形成趋势性的行情，今晚CPI能否让黄金打破震荡节奏？昨日尾盘黄金最终收盘在3322.3美元一线，日线以一根上下影线等长的长脚阴十 字星形态收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今天黄金反弹继续做空，还有继续下跌的空间和需求，今天黄金关注上方阻力在3347美元一线，反弹依托这里阻力以 下做空，下方再看3310美元一线即可！不过数据前我们还是暂时继续当震荡看，反弹高位就不要轻易去追多，早盘反弹还是继续逢高空。 操作方面，短线来讲，震荡，多空都有机会，不存在方向的问题，上方压制3345——3350区域，下方支撑3300一线，昨天早盘回测3300附近后白盘直线拉 高，晚间触及3349附近之后再次回落。短线，多空都有机会，把握好此区间的高抛低吸。大方向，仍然关注3350区域承压后的再一次下跌，需要时间。现在 黄金走势震荡 ...

摘要周二(6月10日)纽约交易时段，现货黄金上演"高台跳水"行情，金价自高点大幅回落约30美元， FXStreet首席分析师ValeriaBednarik写道，因投资者对中美之间可能达成的贸易协议持乐观态度，金价 从3350美元/盎司附近回落，可能会重新测试3300美元/盎司关口。 周二(6月10日)纽约交易时段，现货黄金上演"高台跳水"行情，金价自高点大幅回落约30美元，FXStreet 首席分析师Valeria Bednarik写道，因投资者对中美之间可能达成的贸易协议持乐观态度，金价从3350美 元/盎司附近回落，可能会重新测试3300美元/盎司关口。 中美贸易谈判方面，美国商务部长卢特尼克周二表示，谈判进展"非常、非常顺利"。他表示，希望谈判 能在周二晚结束，但如果有必要，周三将继续进行。 卢特尼克在伦敦兰卡斯特宫对记者说："我认为谈判进展非常、非常顺利。我们投入了大量的时间、精 力和精力——每个人都埋头苦干，密切合作。"两国团队已在这里进行了为期两天的会谈。 卢特尼克补充道："我希望谈判今晚结束，但如果需要的话，我们明天还会来，但我希望谈判今晚结 束。" High Ridge Futures金属交易 ...