程强表示，"十五五"开局之年产业仍是重点，扩内需、科技创新、"双碳"值得关注。政策部署更注重短 期政策力度和长期制度改革结合，会议提出"坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既'放得活'又'管 得好'"和"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"。程强认为，产业发展被提升到了一个前所未有的高 度，未来几年的工作重心将放在产业领先和安全建设方面；探索构建产业发展导向的宏观政策体系，在 推动科技创新、加快培育新动能、促进经济结构优化升级上取得实质性、突破性进展，将成为未来工作 的重要方向之一。 人民财讯12月12日电，12月12日，德邦证券首席经济学家程强表示，今年中央经济工作会议政策的总基 调更加突出"提质增效"，2026年经济增速目标将调整至更务实、更符合提质增效和高质量发展要求的水 平。 ...

相较于单券买入策略，科创债ETF具有低费率、低交易成本、透明度高、分散度高、"T+0"高效申赎等 优势，有利于分散投资组合风险、提高资金使用效率。 华西证券认为，在政策红利下，科创债市场空间广阔，科创债ETF作为科技领域债券的唯一指数化工 具，其长期配置价值和市场影响力有望持续凸显。同时，科创债ETF工具属性灵活，兼顾收益机会与流 动性，适配投资者稳健型需求。 鹏华基金自2018下半年建立"固收工具型产品"中长期战略，并在利率债指数产品及ETF、信用债指数、 存单指数产品等方面积极布局，致力于打造固收工具库，力争成为国内"固收指数专家"。当前债券ETF 总规模已突破300亿。 截至2025年12月12日 13:50，科创债ETF鹏华(551030)上涨0.01%，冲击3连涨。截至上个交易日，科创 债ETF鹏华最新规模201.49亿。 中信证券指出，面对依旧错综复杂的外部环境，本次会议明确要以"苦练内功"来应对外部挑战，提振内 需依旧是明年经济工作的首位，在此基础上坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能。不过本次会议对宏观 经济的定调较去年更加积极，在此背景下明年政策重心也更加侧重提质增效，财政政策维持必要强度， 货 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10-11 emphasizes that by 2025, China's economy will continue to advance under pressure, focusing on new and high-quality development, with ongoing construction of a modern industrial system and significant progress in reform and opening up [1] - Key areas of risk resolution have shown positive progress, and there is a stronger guarantee for people's livelihoods [1] - Neil Bush, during an exclusive interview, expressed his support for China's development, highlighting the resilience and vibrancy of the Chinese economy [3] Group 2 - Discussions at the international conference on space technology and peaceful utilization included topics on technological innovation, financial capital, and artificial intelligence, indicating China's critical role in constructing new economic development models [3] - The emphasis on AI-driven economic development showcases China's commitment to enhancing public welfare through economic growth [3]

Market Overview - A-shares opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7% at 3,873 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 1.27% and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.41%[15] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.04%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83%[10] - European markets rose, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.55%, driven by positive sentiment from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[8] Economic Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for a "strong supply and weak demand" approach, advocating for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing[5] - The U.S. initial jobless claims saw the largest increase since 2020, rising from 192,000 to 236,000, indicating potential economic stress[5] Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil futures hit their lowest level since October, with NY crude oil down 1.47% to $57.6 per barrel[28] - Gold prices increased by 2.09%, reaching $4,285.5 per ounce, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook[28] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 9.3%[27] Stock Performance - Oracle's quarterly earnings missed expectations, leading to a 10.83% drop in its stock price, which negatively impacted the tech sector and caused the Nasdaq to decline by 0.25%[8] - Broadcom reported better-than-expected earnings, boosting optimism in the AI sector, with a target price of $415 for its stock[7] Regional Market Trends - Latin American markets saw gains, with the S&P Mexico IPC index rising by 2.05%[8] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan's stock index fell by 1.3%, while Malaysia's index rose by 0.9%[22]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes risk mitigation in the real estate sector, indicating a shift in focus from stimulating the economy through real estate to managing risks associated with it [1] Group 1: Real Estate Policy - The conference included extensive discussions on real estate policies, exceeding market expectations, suggesting that related sectors may receive temporary attention [1] - The focus on real estate work is primarily on risk prevention rather than economic stimulation, reflecting a significant reduction in the real estate sector's contribution to the domestic economy [1] - A key point of interest for next year is whether second-hand housing prices can stabilize significantly [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The conference's statements on fiscal policy were somewhat restrained, likely due to the need for sustainable debt management, indicating that the broad fiscal deficit rate may not see substantial increases next year [1] - There was a reiteration of the prohibition on the illegal addition of hidden debts, along with a new emphasis on addressing the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms through multiple measures [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The tone regarding monetary policy was more positive, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] - This suggests that monetary policy easing may accelerate next year, particularly with a potential for quicker reductions in benchmark interest rates [1] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The conference prioritizes the development of domestic demand as the foremost task for economic work next year, highlighting the importance of consumption in economic development [1] - Policies encouraging consumption are expected to continue to be strengthened [1]

Economic Assessment - The meeting emphasized the deepening impact of external environmental changes and the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand domestically[6] - The overall policy strength for next year is expected to be no lower than this year[2] - However, a strong stimulus is not anticipated despite the policy strength being maintained[3] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy is projected to remain consistent with this year, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to stay at 4%[8] - General government debt is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.3 trillion to a range of 5.9-6 trillion[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a similar stance as this year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 10 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[11] - The focus will remain on maintaining reasonable liquidity while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[11] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand continues to be the top priority, with a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption[12] - Infrastructure investment is expected to see a peak, contributing to overall investment stabilization[13] Real Estate Policy Changes - New measures in real estate policy include encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[14] - The urbanization rate has slowed, with only a 0.84 percentage point increase expected in 2024, indicating a potential decline in real housing demand[14] Stock Market Projections - A slow bull market is anticipated for A-shares in 2026, with limited support for a rapid bull market[20] - The market outlook is influenced by policy, liquidity, and fundamental factors, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors driving performance[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include sudden geopolitical tensions abroad and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it provides trend judgments for various sectors and varieties, including "Bullish", "Bearish", "Sideways", and "Watch". Core Viewpoints The recent Politburo meeting released limited incremental information, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work. In the short - term, investors should be wary of potential "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments after policy announcements. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, presenting a layout window. For different sectors and varieties, the report analyzes their respective fundamentals, macro - factors, and market conditions to provide investment suggestions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides an opportunity to build long positions, and investors can use the futures discount structure to optimize investment costs and odds [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement. There are opportunities to go long on dips as market risk appetite recovers [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Industry drivers are limited, but risk appetite recovery makes aluminum prices run strongly. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. Zinc fundamentals have improved, and it is advisable to wait and see before the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. Nickel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and stainless steel futures will oscillate. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term and has upward potential in the long - term. Silver is supported by supply - demand imbalance but is subject to high volatility. Platinum is likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be maintained [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Related Products**: Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes in different regions and reduced production schedules of downstream products. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate with capacity reduction expectations and other factors. Lithium carbonate has short - term sharp increases due to various factors [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coils, macro - drivers strengthen in December, providing some upward momentum. It is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market after price increases. Avoid chasing high prices for single - side trading and consider participating in spot - futures positions. Iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts, while the near - month is restricted by production cuts. Other products such as silicon iron, glass, and coke also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton and Sugar**: Cotton is in a situation of "supported but lacking drivers", and attention should be paid to future policies and market conditions. Sugar has a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below. Other agricultural products such as soybeans, pulp, and grains also have their own market analyses and investment suggestions [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil and fuel oil will oscillate due to factors such as OPEC+ production suspension, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions. Bitumen is bearish, and rubber - related products have different market trends and investment suggestions [1]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Various chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have their own market analyses based on factors like cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment [1].

摩根大通发表研报指，在近日举行的中央经济工作会议上，关于对房地产市场的表态与先前类似，但与 过去几次政府会议相比，今次关于房地产市场的着墨更多，显示稳定房地产行业仍是内地关键任务之 一。摩通表示，今次会议上未提及具体措施，但认为下一步的政策措施或推出旨在降低购房成本的措 施。该行首选股为华润置地、华润万象生活与中国金茂。 ...

文：银河期货有限公司董事长 王东 本次中央经济工作会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深 入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力 推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和 安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优 增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风 险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和 谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。期货行业将以本次会议为契机，加快落实会议精神，推动行业高质量 发展。 行业：锚定会议精神，围绕防风险、强监管、促高质量发展展开工作 （一）升级服务实体经济的"全能力"，精准对接产业转型升级需求 行业需要不断优化现有服务体系，提供与产业转型相匹配的新服务模式与新工具。 一是优化品种与工具供给。优化现有品种与产业需求的适配；推动新能源、绿色低碳等领域期货期权品 种扩容，聚焦新质生产力核心领域，推动针对新能源 ...

"在有效需求不足、物价持续低迷的背景下，明年降准降息可期，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发 力。"管涛表示。此外，通过完善利率自律机制、综合治理金融体系的内卷式竞争、建立健全做好金 融"五篇大文章"的体制机制，能够引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，进一步畅 通货币政策传导。 中央经济工作会议还指出，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 "在内外部不确定因素综合影响下，明年人民币汇率有望延续双向波动态势。"管涛表示，这是中央经济 工作会议连续第四年强调"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，体现了既要防范汇率过度贬 值、也要防范汇率过度升值的政策取向，有助于遏制外汇市场的顺周期单边羊群效应，为明年推动经济 持续回升创造一个平稳的外汇金融环境。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 对此，中银证券全球首席经济学家管 ...