今日早参 2026 年 2 月 05 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 姚雪梅 农林牧渔行业首席研究员 邮箱：yaoxuemei@htsc.com 樊俊豪 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：沿着五大叙事与情绪钟摆找机会 近期市场波动明显加大，背后既受到资金和情绪钟摆的推动，又受到几大宏 观叙事的变化影响，具体包括：1）商品超级周期的演绎节奏和斜率；2）商 品涨价推动全球宏观象限或从复苏逐渐转向过热；3）流动性环境面临的扰 动与结构性机会；4）AI 链的分化是否会迎来收敛；5）春节前后的国内市场 的变化。配置策略上，短期市场波动率预计将维持高位，但市场情绪如钟 摆，在趋势未变的情况下，恐惧往往带来机会，同时关注宏观叙事变化背后 蕴含的趋势性机会。 风险提示：1）美国关税政策对经济的滞后效应；2）海外通胀超预期；3） 如果出口限制蔓延到长单，对中国月度消 ...

点击图片▲立即购买 中央一号文件继续聚焦三农问题 2月3日，《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》向社会公布。这是党的十八大以来，中央连续出台的第14 个指导"三农"工作的一号文件，是又一个以推进乡村全面振兴作为主题的一号文件，也是"十五五"首个中央一号文件。《意见》全文共六个部 分，包括：提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益、实施常态化精准帮扶、积极促进农民稳定增收、因地制宜推进宜居宜业和美乡村建设、强化体制 机制创新。 今年指导"三农"工作的一号文件有不少新的提法，如近10年来首次提出"实施粮食流通提质增效项目"，"机器人"也是近10年来首次进入中央一号 文件，而在脱贫攻坚5年过渡期结束后，中央一号文件也首次提出"常态化精准帮扶"概念。（每经网） ｜点评｜ 中央"一号文件"连续多年聚焦"三农"议题，已成为中国高度重视该领域的标志性符号。从早期的促增产、保增收，到如今的乡村振兴 和建设农业强国，"一号文件"根据国内"三农"情况在不同时期的不同特征，高屋建瓴地提出了前瞻性意见。今年是脱贫攻坚5年过渡期结束，帮 扶工作进入常态化阶段的第一年，《意见》健全帮扶体系，将防止返贫转为长期制度性 ...

Group 1 - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, focusing on tasks such as protecting arable land, revitalizing seed industry, and developing industries that benefit farmers [1][2] - The document highlights the importance of soil protection and quality improvement, including high-standard farmland construction and comprehensive utilization of saline-alkali land [1] - Companies in the agricultural sector, such as Yongqing Environmental Protection, are positioned to benefit from the emphasis on soil protection, leveraging their technical expertise in soil remediation and quality enhancement [2] Group 2 - The document outlines the direction for high-quality development in the seed industry, promoting the industrialization of biological breeding and the acceleration of breakthrough variety selection [2] - Leading companies like Longping High-Tech are utilizing capital and technological innovation to achieve self-sufficiency in seed sources, enhancing their competitiveness and supporting national food security [2] - Companies like Zoomlion are integrating high-end agricultural machinery and smart agricultural solutions to empower rural revitalization, focusing on efficiency and reducing labor intensity through advanced technologies [2][3] Group 3 - The agricultural modernization and rural revitalization depend on market entities, represented by listed companies, actively integrating resources and promoting the transformation of results [3] - Companies are encouraged to focus on technological innovation, developing core products such as smart agricultural equipment and breakthrough varieties, while enhancing industry efficiency through models like "company + farmers" [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2026/2/4 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 147,220.00 | -880.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -139,888.00 | +1481.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 359,912.00 | +4142.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 1,780.00 | +88 ...

Group 1 - Report's investment rating for the industry: Not provided - Core view of the report: The finished products are expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][4] Group 2 - Policy news: The 14th central document guiding the "Three Rural Issues" since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was released on February 3, and the State Council Safety Committee Office issued an emergency notice to strengthen safety production work. The People's Bank of China will conduct an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, 2026. As of January 31, 20 cities have introduced 21 property market relaxation policies [3] - Market performance and reasons: The finished products trended lower yesterday due to the recent decline of precious metals and non - ferrous metals in the commodity market, weakening the black sector. With the approaching Spring Festival, the spot market is calming down, and the futures price may operate in a weak and volatile manner [3] - Later concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the consumption sector, particularly the consumption ETF (159928), which has seen significant inflows and trading activity [1][3] - The consumption ETF (159928) has recorded a net inflow of over 2.35 billion yuan in the last 20 days, with its latest scale exceeding 23 billion yuan, leading its peers [1][3] - Major stocks within the consumption ETF, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, have shown positive price movements, indicating a robust market sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - The first central document of the year emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, aiming to enhance living conditions and increase farmers' wealth [7][8] - The document sets a hard target for grain production to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, underscoring the importance of food security [7] - The focus on expanding rural consumption is seen as a key economic task, with strategies to improve both infrastructure and quality of life in rural areas [8] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery, with positive sales growth in various categories, particularly frozen foods and hot pot ingredients [9][10] - The dairy market is experiencing a stabilization in raw milk prices, which is projected to positively impact the meat and dairy pricing cycle in 2026 [10] - The white liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with Kweichow Moutai expected to maintain its pricing power during the upcoming festive season [10]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed significant gains, with rebar futures trading at 3471.00 yuan, up 0.26% [1] - As of late January 2026, social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities reached 7.17 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 1.1% month-on-month, but a decrease of 40,000 tons or 0.6% year-to-date, and down 170,000 tons or 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes expanding rural consumption through various measures, including support for new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials [2] Group 2 - Economic growth targets for local governments are set around 5%, with the steel market absorbing external market fluctuations and showing a slowdown in trading activity due to the upcoming Spring Festival [3] - Inventory levels for major steel products have increased, but there is a divergence among product types, with hot-rolled coils continuing a trend of inventory reduction [3] - Iron ore and coking coal prices remain relatively strong, and future market conditions will depend on macroeconomic sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of global liquidity expectations, supply risks, and geopolitical tensions, with significant price increases observed in both the London and domestic futures markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Overview - Global macroeconomic conditions have improved, leading to a positive sentiment in the commodity market, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and easing political uncertainties in the U.S. [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin inventory decreased to 7,095 tons, indicating tightening supply conditions [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are contributing to structural tightness in global tin supply, with Myanmar's Wa region accounting for 15%-20% of global tin supply and being a key source for China [2][3] - Demand is showing a bifurcation, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and home appliances weakening, while emerging sectors such as AI servers, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles exhibit strong resilience [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Status - The upstream mining sector faces production constraints due to policy and natural factors, while the midstream smelting sector is pressured by tight raw material supplies and low processing fees, leading to reduced profits [4] - Downstream sectors, including solder and chemicals, are adopting low inventory strategies due to high tin prices and seasonal demand fluctuations, with restocking needs expected to be postponed until after the holiday [4] Group 4: Current Market Trends - The spot market is experiencing tight supply, with traders reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers are gradually restocking, supporting high price volatility [5] - Short-term tin prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $49,500 to $50,800 per ton, with ongoing supply-demand tightness and emerging sector demand providing core support for prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

早盘速递 2026/2/4 热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。此前，美国国会众议院投票通过联邦政府多个部门本财年剩余 时间拨款法案，从1月31日开始的联邦政府部分"停摆"僵局得以化解。 第 2 页，共 3 页 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 股市风险偏好 主要大宗商品走势 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI) CRB现货指数:综合:右轴 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价 伦敦现货白银:以美元计价：右轴 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 期货官方价:L ...