Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% is a proactive response to signals of economic cooling in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. economy's growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.9% to 1.4%, with an expected unemployment rate increase to 4.5% by year-end and a slight rise in inflation to 3.1% [3] - The current economic environment is characterized by a combination of "slowing growth + moderate inflation," prompting the Fed to act to prevent a recession [3] Group 2 - Following the interest rate cut, global financial markets reacted swiftly, with major U.S. stock indices reaching new closing highs, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which rose by 0.94% [4] - The Asian markets showed increased attractiveness amid expectations of a weaker dollar, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.91% and the KOSPI Index up by 0.35% [4] - The People's Bank of China is maintaining liquidity through significant reverse repo operations, creating a policy coordination effect in the global easing cycle [4] Group 3 - The Chinese market is poised to benefit from the current global liquidity restructuring, particularly in the technology sector, where reduced financing costs will boost R&D investments [5] - In the automotive sector, the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are showing positive trends, with BYD selling 62,400 units in the ninth week of September, driven by lower borrowing costs [5] - The green economy is also expected to gain momentum, as the Fed's rate cut lowers financing costs for global green projects, aligning with China's technological advantages in renewable energy and storage [5] Group 4 - The interest rate cut cycle necessitates a recalibration of asset allocation for ordinary investors, with traditional savings products likely to yield lower returns while equity assets, especially in technology and renewable energy, become more attractive [6] - Consumers can take advantage of the declining credit costs, particularly in large purchases like NEVs and smart home products, benefiting from favorable financing conditions [6] - The ongoing global monetary policy adjustments highlight the importance of recognizing opportunities presented by liquidity easing while maintaining rational judgment [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.07%报 3678.2 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.12%报 42.1 美元/盎司。美联储降息后，鲍威尔讲话偏鹰， 美元指数反弹，导致黄金白银获利回吐，价格承压回调。 2. 国际油价小幅下跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.61%，报 63.31 美元/桶；布伦特原 ...

Group 1 - Intel's stock surged over 22% following the announcement of a deal with Nvidia, where Nvidia will purchase Intel's common stock at $23.28 per share, totaling approximately $5 billion [1] - Intel plans to integrate Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips and provide processor support for data center products based on Nvidia hardware [1] - This partnership is seen as a crucial step for Intel to stabilize its funding chain after struggling in the high-performance chip market and receiving support from the US government and Japan's SoftBank [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4% and indicated a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, which will depend on inflation pressures [1] - European stock indices rose across the board, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.87%, and Germany's DAX up 1.35% [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased over 6% following positive trial results for its weight loss drug, semaglutide [1] Group 3 - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with light crude oil futures closing at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude oil futures at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1] - Gold prices fell over 1% after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, with December gold futures closing at $3678.3 per ounce, down 1.06% [1]

Group 1: Futures Market Information - The previous day's closing prices of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 7188, 7233, 7280 respectively, with changes of - 57, - 56, - 19 and percentage changes of - 0.79%, - 0.77%, - 0.26% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The previous day's closing prices of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 6926, 6963, 6931 respectively, with changes of - 56, - 54, - 53 and percentage changes of - 0.80%, - 0.77%, - 0.76% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The trading volumes of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 207880, 9760, 66 respectively, and the trading volumes of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 234762, 20649, 871 respectively [2]. - The open interests of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 529473, 38224, 67 respectively, with changes of 9217, - 329, 35. The open interests of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 574719, 71061, 1575 respectively, with changes of 3878, 3796, 524 [2]. - The current spreads of LL (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 45, - 47, 92 respectively, and the current spreads of PP (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 37, 32, 5 respectively [2]. Group 2: Spot Market Information - In the raw material and spot market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the mid - stream spot market, the current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China were 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Group 3: News - On Thursday (September 18), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.57 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.33 - $64.55 [2]. - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, down $0.51 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.19 - $68.42 [2]. Group 4: Core Views and Strategies - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and part of PetroChina were stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina were stable [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved [2]. - After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemicals. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market declined due to concerns about future demand realization [2]. - In the medium - term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2]

美联储降息落地，美元走弱或将推动资金回流新兴市场，港股作为外资占比较高的离岸市场，有望迎来增量资金加持，而科技板块作为流动性敏感型资产， 通常率先受益于宽松预期。 此外，降息可能刺激全球风险偏好上升，提振科技成长板块的市场情绪。科技型企业弹性和成长属性强，在宽松环境中往往能展现出更强的上涨潜力。 每日经济新闻 聚焦互联网龙头——恒生互联网ETF（513330） 利率环境转向宽松有助于降低港股科技企业的融资成本，尤其是生物科技、互联网等研发投入较高的行业，其估值折现率压力减轻，长期盈利预期有望修 复。 【港股科技相关ETF】 覆盖科技全产业链——港股通科技ETF基金（159101） ...

Group 1: Incident Overview - A significant gold theft occurred in Hong Kong on September 17, with 10 men stealing approximately 65 kilograms of gold valued at around 58 million HKD (approximately 53 million RMB) from a jewelry processing factory [1] - The Hong Kong police arrested 13 individuals, including 12 men and 1 woman, aged between 29 and 60, in connection with the theft [1] - The stolen gold, valued over 50 million HKD, has been fully recovered by the police [1] Group 2: Operational Details - The gang used the factory's keys and passwords to gain access to the premises and the gold storage area [1] - The mastermind behind the theft was reportedly a business partner of the factory owner, indicating a financial dispute between them [1][2] - The gang pretended to be delivering goods, which allowed them to enter the factory without raising suspicion among the employees [2] Group 3: Industry Context - Hong Kong has developed into a significant global gold trading center since the 1970s, with a well-established gold processing industry and advanced technological support [2] - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong announced plans to enhance gold storage capabilities at the airport and financial institutions, aiming to establish a regional gold reserve hub with a target of exceeding 2,000 tons in three years [2] Group 4: Market Trends - Recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to a notable increase in international gold prices [3] - Geopolitical risks in regions like the Middle East and the weakening confidence in the US dollar have further supported gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a rate cut, gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a peak of 3,707 USD per ounce before declining [3]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce, influenced by a hawkish speech from Powell following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, with no significant deterioration in U.S. employment and inflation risks, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate cuts, particularly slowing down after 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that gold prices may experience a new upward trend following a breakthrough in early September, potentially lasting until the spring or summer of 2026, with recommendations for investors to maintain a bullish stance on precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite high U.S. Treasury yields in the first half of the year and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry and central bank demand, gold ETFs saw the strongest capital inflow since 2020, with a net inflow of nearly 400 tons, accounting for 17% of total gold demand in the first half of the year [1] - The overall judgment from the industry indicates that gold prices typically exhibit a pattern of "initial rise followed by adjustment, with long-term benefits" during interest rate cut cycles, suggesting a potential for price increases in the medium to long term [4] - The industry remains cautious about short-term risks of price adjustments following the rate cut, while still recognizing the long-term investment value of gold, especially if geopolitical risks escalate or recession is confirmed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing short-term weak adjustments following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with profit-taking and bearish sentiment dominating the market [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On September 18, gold opened at $3659.80 per ounce, reached a high of $3672.90, and then dropped to a low of $3627.82, closing at $3644.22, marking a daily decline of $15.58 or 0.43% [1][3]. - The volatility for the day was $45.08, indicating significant price fluctuations [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Fed's interest rate cut led to profit-taking, and Powell's comments on monetary policy were less dovish than market expectations, reducing bullish momentum [3][5]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw a significant drop, the largest in nearly four years, which negatively impacted gold prices [3]. Short-term Outlook - Gold is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially testing support levels around $3600 or $3540 due to reduced bullish momentum and the strengthening U.S. dollar [3][5]. - The market is currently operating below the 5-10 day short-term moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment [3][9]. Long-term Perspective - Despite short-term adjustments, the structural bull market for gold remains intact, supported by the Fed's projected rate cuts and ongoing economic concerns [5][7]. - Historical trends suggest that during rate-cutting cycles, gold prices typically maintain an upward trajectory, with potential to reach above $4000 in the future [5]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have repeatedly tested the mid-line support since last year, indicating a potential for upward movement despite current bearish pressures [7]. - The daily chart indicates a strengthening bearish sentiment, with a focus on resistance levels around $3645 or $3660 and support levels at $3620 or $3600 [9][10].

包括海王星保险控股公司和菲尼克斯大学所有者在内的一系列公司已经向美国监管机构公开提交了文件，并可能在强制性的15天等待期后，在未来几天开始 路演。银行家预计会有更多公司上市，因为美国股市基准接近历史高点，波动率指标显示相对平静——这些条件被认为有利于首次发行股票。 根据彭博社汇编的数据，本月迄今为止，不包括SPAC、REIT和封闭式基金在内，已有14家公司通过美国IPO筹集了70亿美元，这是自2020年以来9月份前18 天的最高水平。里格斯称，如果市场保持坚挺，10月份的重要交易数量可能会超过本月。 美联储降息为那些等待绿灯一亮就跃入美国IPO市场的私营企业扫清了道路。 行业观察人士表示，从科技行业到服务业的企业预计将在周三降息后的未来几天和几周内公开提交IPO申请，或启动此类交易的营销活动。许多考虑在秋季 上市的公司一直在等待这一决定，同时也在关注新上市公司的表现，这些公司的表现好坏参半。 特鲁伊斯特证券公司股票资本市场主管韦斯特.里格斯表示："肯定有公司在等待通过这一关，只是为了确保没有意外。预计10月份的日程安排将会非常 满。" 德勤会计师事务所美国资本市场交易主管威尔.布劳蒂加姆表示，几家发行商预计将 ...