事件： 政府停摆扰动就业，不足以支撑 1 月降息 ——2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点评 要点 2025 年 12 月 17 日 总量研究 2025 年 12 月 16 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 11 月非农数据：新增非农就业 6.4 万人，预期 5.0 万人，10 月为-10.5 万人；失业率 4.6%，预期 4.4%；平均 时薪同比升 3.5%，预期升 3.6%。 核心观点： 新增非农就业高于预期，商品生产、专业和商业服务业、教育和保健业表现较好。 （一）专业和商业服务业、教育和保健业：专业和商业服务业中，11 月临时工 服务新增就业从 10 月的-1.3 万人升至-0.5 万人，反映兼职市场需求较高。此外， 随着冬季来临，医疗服务需求也保持稳健。（二）建筑业：随着美联储在 9 月重 启降息，美国房贷利率已呈现下行趋势，拉动相关地产需求，11 月建筑业新增 就业 2.8 万人，是生产部门主要贡献项。 劳动参与率与失业率同步抬升。 2025 年 11 月劳动参与率录得 62.5%，高于 9 月的 62.4%，青年群体就业意愿 回升。从失业人口看，11 月失业人口增加了 22.8 万人，驱动 11 ...

此次就业流失具有广泛行业覆盖性。除教育与医疗保健、自然资源部门外，其余所有超大型行业的小型 企业均出现裁员，其中制造业以及专业和商业服务领域裁员最为显著。 新华财经北京12月9日电 ADP周度就业报告显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私人雇主平均每周新增 4,750个工作岗位，初步数据显示劳动力市场在经历连续四周负增长后或现企稳迹象。然而，这一整体 数据掩盖了结构性分化——作为美国就业增长传统"引擎"的小型企业正持续释放负面信号。 根据美国劳工统计局资料，员工少于50人的最小型企业占全美总就业人口的40%以上，并构成96%的商 业机构主体。在建筑业和休闲酒店业，其就业占比分别高达57%和60%。历史数据显示，2021至2024年 间，小企业贡献了超过52%的全国新增就业岗位，凸显其在疫后复苏中的关键角色。 但最新ADP全国就业报告揭示出严峻现实：11月，小型企业单月削减12万个岗位，而同期大中型企业合 计增加9万个岗位。更值得警惕的是，在8月至10月期间，小型企业平均每月净减少约3.4万个工作岗 位，呈现持续性收缩趋势。 薪酬层面亦存在明显落差。11月，最小型企业员工的中位数年薪较大中型企业员工低逾1万美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - In November, the U.S. private sector experienced a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of a 20,000 job increase [1] Employment Data Summary - The revised data for October indicates an increase of 47,000 jobs in the private sector [1] - Employment in the goods-producing sector decreased by 19,000 jobs, while the service sector saw a reduction of 13,000 jobs in November [1] - Small private enterprises lost 120,000 jobs, whereas medium and large enterprises added 51,000 and 39,000 jobs, respectively [1] - The Northeast and South regions of the U.S. saw declines of 100,000 and 43,000 jobs in the private sector, while the Midwest and West regions experienced increases of 45,000 and 67,000 jobs, respectively [1] Economic Trends - The data indicates a stagnation in job creation during the second half of the year, with a downward trend in wage growth [1] - Recruitment activities in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction sectors were particularly weak in November [1] - The chief economist of the company noted that employers are facing cautious consumer sentiment and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, leading to fluctuations in the hiring market [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant cooling, with private sector jobs decreasing by 32,000 in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, and falling short of the expected increase of 40,000 jobs [1][4]. Employment Trends - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 employees, are particularly affected, losing a total of 120,000 jobs in November, with firms employing 20 to 49 people accounting for 74,000 of these job losses [5][9]. - In contrast, large enterprises with 50 or more employees added 90,000 jobs, indicating a stark difference in resilience between small and large businesses in the current economic climate [12]. Wage Growth - Wage growth for retained employees has slowed, with a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, down by 0.1 percentage points from October [2]. Industry Performance - The employment data reveals a broad decline across various sectors, with professional and business services losing 26,000 jobs, the information sector shedding 20,000 jobs, and manufacturing reducing its workforce by 18,000 [12]. - Only a few sectors saw job growth, notably education and healthcare services, which added 33,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, which increased by 13,000 jobs; however, these gains were insufficient to offset the widespread declines in other industries [12]. Federal Reserve Implications - This employment report is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on December 9-10, with futures traders estimating a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite some officials expressing concerns about further easing [4][16]. - Divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers have emerged, with some advocating for rate cuts to prevent further deterioration in the labor market, while others worry that additional cuts could exacerbate inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [16].

Group 1 - The private sector in the U.S. unexpectedly lost 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a further slowdown in the labor market [1] - Small businesses were particularly hard hit, with companies having fewer than 50 employees losing 120,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [4] - In contrast, large companies (those with 50 or more employees) added 90,000 jobs, with the education and healthcare sectors leading the way with an increase of 33,000 jobs [4] Group 2 - Wage growth has slowed, with salaries for retained employees rising 4.4% year-over-year, down 0.1 percentage points from October [5] - The ADP report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, where there is a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut [5] - Recent weeks have seen mixed opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the necessity of further rate cuts to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5]

Employment Data Overview - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August[2] - The combined job additions for July and August were revised down by 33,000[5] Sector Performance - The private sector contributed 97,000 jobs, with notable gains in education and healthcare (59,000 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (47,000 jobs)[11] - Manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors continued to decline, with losses of 6,000, 3,000, and 25,300 jobs respectively[12] - The construction sector showed improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, reversing previous declines[12] Wage and Inflation Insights - Average hourly earnings in the service sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.0% increase[24] - Overall wage growth lacks significant upward momentum, indicating limited inflationary pressure from wages[24] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September non-farm data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, influencing interest rate decisions[4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though internal divisions within the Fed complicate the decision[26] - The recent data, while positive, may not be sufficient to shift the Fed's stance decisively towards rate cuts[26]

Group 1 - The delayed employment report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates a complex labor market in early autumn, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while the August data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, marking the first negative value since January 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The September employment report presents conflicting signals, with strong job growth reported but an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September [5] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers seeking full-time employment, slightly decreased to 8% [5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7% [5] Group 3 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs in September, continuing a stable growth trend over the past year [7] - The restaurant and drinking places sector saw an increase of 37,000 jobs, while social assistance added 14,000 jobs [7] - Conversely, the transportation and warehousing sector lost 25,000 jobs, and federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a loss of 97,000 jobs since January [7] Group 4 - There is increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to lower interest rates in December, with some officials suggesting a rate cut may be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [9] - Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations for a rate cut in December significantly decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates rising to 67.2% [9] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve will face challenges due to the lack of key economic data, as the employment reports for October and November will be combined and released after the December meeting [11] - The absence of October unemployment data due to the government shutdown adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision-making process [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September was released after a one-month delay, showing better-than-expected employment data, which reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3] - The report indicated an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year [5] Group 2 - The labor market data release ended a 44-day period during which the U.S. government was "shut down," preventing the collection and publication of labor statistics [5] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were reported at 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week, which was below market expectations [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings in December will assess overall employment conditions, with the October and November employment reports to be released simultaneously on December 9 [7] - There is a strong division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members supporting a cut while others prefer to maintain stable rates through 2025 [8] Group 4 - Concerns about core inflation remain high, with some members indicating that tariffs are pushing up prices, counteracting declines in housing service prices [9] - Some officials believe that productivity gains from artificial intelligence may help alleviate some inflationary pressures, while others express uncertainty about the timing and extent of tariff impacts on prices [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September was released after a one-month delay, showing data that exceeded market expectations, indicating reduced urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3] - The report revealed an increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the Dow Jones expectation of 50,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year [5] Group 2 - The labor market data release followed a record 44-day government shutdown, which prevented the collection and publication of labor statistics [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were reported at 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week, below the market consensus of 227,000 [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings in December will assess overall employment conditions, with the October and November employment reports to be released simultaneously on December 9 [7] - There is a strong division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members supporting a cut while others prefer to maintain rates stable through 2025 [8][9] - Concerns about core inflation remaining high were noted, with some members indicating that tariffs are pushing up prices, counteracting declines in housing service prices [9][10]

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, the largest gain since July 2025, surpassing the market expectation of 28,000 jobs [1][2] - The report alleviates concerns from the Federal Reserve regarding labor market deterioration and reverses a two-month decline in employment figures [2] Employment Sector Analysis - Job growth is concentrated in labor-intensive sectors such as trade, transportation, public utilities, and education and health services, while knowledge-intensive sectors like information services and professional services are experiencing job losses [2][3] - Specifically, trade, transportation, and public utilities added 47,000 jobs, education and health services added 26,000 jobs, and financial activities added 11,000 jobs [2] - Conversely, the information services sector lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services lost 15,000 jobs, other services lost 13,000 jobs, and manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs [2][3] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The decline in manufacturing jobs is attributed to economic slowdown and weak demand, with the manufacturing PMI remaining below the growth threshold for eight consecutive months [3] - High inventory levels in sectors like consumer electronics and automotive have led to production cuts and layoffs, compounded by increased investment in automation technologies [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [5] - The focus on employment over inflation suggests that economic downturn risks are currently prioritized, although concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain [5]