市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡下行 钢材：市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡下行 黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-30 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3097元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3289元/吨。现货方面，根据钢银数据显示，昨日建材全国 城市库存491.96万吨，环比减少5.10%；热卷全国城市库存221.74万吨，环比减少1.27%。 供需与逻辑：国内宏观政策尚处于观望期，钢材库存连续累库，弱于季节性表现，钢材压力有所显现。随着节前 补库结束，后续成材库存压力将进一步加大。关注国庆节假日后的钢材消费情况，后期仍需对供应进行一定程度 的压制来缓解后续的累库压力。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运小幅回升，铁矿震荡下行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交58.4万吨，环比上涨46.00%；远期现货累计成 交110.0万吨，环比上涨110%。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运大幅回落， ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for September 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the base price of thermal coal remained at -95.4 yuan/ton (except -96.4 yuan/ton on September 22 and -97.4 yuan/ton on September 19), and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with specific values varying each day [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with values changing daily [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [28] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 25, 2025 are provided [32] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter spreads, are presented [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Steel**: Due to stricter production restrictions in Tangshan, the steel price center has shifted upwards. Although there are increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure in the building materials sector under inventory pressure, the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and expectations of domestic policy intensification, as well as the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, steel prices are showing strength [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holidays, the sentiment is positive, and iron ore prices are oscillating upwards. The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week, and the demand is high with a substantial rebound in hot metal production. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coke production is restricted, and the prices of coking coal and coke have risen significantly. The second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down. With the release of downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand and expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: Due to pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream users, the coal price continues to rise. The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated upwards. The overall spot trading was average, with better low - price trading and weaker trading after price increases. Most regional basis shrank, and there was basis trading in some areas. The national building materials trading volume was 11050 tons. Due to poor air quality in Tangshan, some steel mills took blast furnace stoking measures [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Under the current inventory pressure, the fundamental contradictions in building materials have increased, and the price is under pressure. The plate demand remains resilient, and the fundamentals are stable with a relatively strong price. Attention should be paid to the improvement in demand. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there are stronger expectations of domestic policy intensification, and the steel price is showing strength under the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore in the national main ports was 1.394 million tons, a 45.21% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.23 million tons (10 transactions), a 31.86% decrease from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 36000 tons). Tangshan required some steel mills to limit sintering production, which will affect iron ore consumption in the short term [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In terms of supply, the global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production has rebounded substantially, and the demand for iron ore is high. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating cargo volume on port arrivals and the steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling rhythm [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke rose significantly. In the spot market, the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down and punished. The port market sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The import coal trading activity is high. Tangshan's meeting required local coking enterprises to extend the coking time by 30%, which will suppress coke consumption in the short term [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, with the continuous increase in finished - product prices, steel mills' profits have expanded, and production enthusiasm has improved, maintaining rigid demand. For coking coal, the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has been continuously reduced. With expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to oscillate strongly. There are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas continue to rise, and the demand from terminal customers such as chemical and cement industries is good. Some downstream customers still have pre - holiday stockpiling plans. In the port market, the sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes and a small amount of downstream inquiry demand. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the quotes of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In terms of imports, the decline in domestic coal prices has narrowed, the price of imported high - calorie coal is basically stable, and the price of low - calorie coal has rebounded, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between domestic and imported coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stockpiling of non - power coal [7].

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Global oil and gas capital expenditure has declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a 122% reduction from 2014 highs to $351 billion in 2021, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [8][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened concerns over global energy supply, with the EU aiming to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][31] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with Brent crude at $67.89 per barrel and WTI at $63.31 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.01% and 2.17% respectively [10][32][50] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has shown resilience, with the average market price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 692 yuan per ton, up 2.61% week-on-week, supported by increased demand from power plants [11][12] - The supply side is gradually improving as coal mines resume production, but demand remains strong due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption [11][12] - The focus on domestic coal production and the impact of international energy dynamics, particularly from the EU's renewed coal demand, are expected to enhance the profitability of domestic coal companies [12] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coke remains stable at 1280 yuan per ton, with downstream steel mills showing a need for replenishment despite high raw material costs [13][14] - Coking coal prices are also stable at 1610 yuan per ton, with market sentiment cautious as procurement slows down after previous stockpiling [13][14] - Steel production remains robust, with an average daily output of 240.73 million tons, indicating ongoing demand for coke [13] Group 4: Natural Gas Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowdown in global natural gas demand growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, with expectations of accelerated growth in 2026 [15][16] - Natural gas prices have decreased, with NYMEX natural gas averaging $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 5.6% week-on-week [15][16] - The EU's agreement on a natural gas price cap may exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16][17] Group 5: Oilfield Services Sector - The oilfield services industry is experiencing a recovery in activity levels, supported by government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas production [18][19] - Global active rig counts have increased to 1621, with a slight rise in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a positive trend in exploration and production activities [19] - The overall capital expenditure in the oil sector is expected to continue growing, driven by high oil prices and geopolitical factors [18]

Group 1 - Longhua New Materials' controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares, amounting to a maximum of 4.3 million shares [1] - Qingdao Double Star reported a net loss of 186 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 2.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31% [2] - Huakang Clean's controlling shareholder and chairman is under investigation and has been placed under detention, with the general manager temporarily taking over the chairman's responsibilities [4] Group 2 - Century Tianhong's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling a maximum of 10.9837 million shares [5] - Caesar Travel's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, with a maximum of 16.0379 million shares through various methods [7] - Zhang Xiaoqin's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 540,100 shares, representing 0.36% of the total share capital after excluding repurchased shares [9] Group 3 - Zhenlei Technology's controlling shareholder plans to transfer 8.3052 million shares, accounting for 3.88% of the total share capital [11] - Hangxin Technology's borrowings increased by 201 million yuan, exceeding 20% of the net assets at the end of the previous year [12] - Aileda's three executives plan to collectively reduce holdings by up to 149,100 shares [13] Group 4 - Iceberg Refrigeration reported a net profit of 79.5411 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.29% [14] - Jindan Technology's director plans to reduce holdings by 1.5 million shares, accounting for 0.66% of the total share capital [15] - Heshun Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 655,300 shares, representing 0.82% of the total share capital [18] Group 5 - Tianshi Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 5.928 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [19] - Yuhuang Jinlead plans to raise up to 400 million yuan through a private placement to its controlling shareholder [20] - China Shenhua reported coal sales of 24.3 million tons in July, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [21] Group 6 - Jialitu's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 541,800 shares, representing 1% of the total share capital [22] - Wanlin Logistics' controlling shareholder and related parties plan to reduce holdings by up to 599,200 shares, accounting for 1% of the total share capital [23] - Xueqi Electric plans to acquire 65% of Hefei Shengbang's equity for 47.45 million yuan [24] Group 7 - Wantong Development plans to invest 854 million yuan to acquire 62.98% of Shuduo Technology [26] - Ganhua Science and Technology plans to acquire 65% of Xi'an Ganxin Technology for 388 million yuan [28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [2] - Iron Ore: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bullish movement [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided, short - term price is expected to move sideways to bullishly [8] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Inventory is increasing, and the impact of steel mill production restrictions in Tangshan is currently controllable. The fundamentals may improve marginally, but self - initiated production cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the steel futures are supported. Future focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has revised its expectations, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The shipping volume is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the supply is well - supported. The demand is strong, but short - term production in Tangshan is affected by the parade. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are concerns about Mongolian coal transportation, and the futures prices are strongly bullish. The supply of coking coal is insufficient, and the demand for coke is supported by good steel enterprise profits. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of price increase for coke [5][6]. - **Thermal Coal**: The demand is good, and the pit - mouth coal price is firm. The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term. Medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. 3. Summary by Industry Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward. Tangshan issued production restriction notices, with a currently controllable impact. Building materials are in the off - season with increasing inventory, while plates' sentiment has marginally improved due to production restrictions [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' production and sales are in the off - season, and inventory is rising slightly. Plates are affected by Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel mill production restrictions before the parade may improve the fundamentals, but self - initiated cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the fundamentals have few contradictions [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward, and spot prices rose slightly. The shipping volume decreased slightly this period, with a decline in Australia and non - mainstream shipments and an increase in Brazilian shipments. Spot market transactions were few [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Shipping is in line with the seasonal pattern, and supply is well - supported. The iron - making water output is high, and steel mill production enthusiasm is strong. The short - term impact of the parade on Tangshan's rolling mills has not affected blast furnaces. In the long run, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices were bullish. The customs clearance volume of imported coal is high, but the restrictions on Mongolian coal transportation may affect short - term supply [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, mine production cuts and rainy seasons have led to low output and insufficient supply. For coke, the new round of price increase needs time to materialize, and the supply pressure has eased, but the output is still lower than last year. The demand is supported by good steel enterprise profits [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways - to - bullish movement for single - side trading of both coking coal and coke, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the price is strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and the demand for restocking is high. At ports, the inventory is decreasing, and the shipping is at a loss. The import cost has increased, and the trading activity is low [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the demand is good due to high temperatures. The price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term, and medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8].

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed performance in various sectors, with a decline in prices for steel, cement, and industrial metals, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The service consumption sector shows a divergence, with tourism experiencing a decline and the film market showing significant improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales continue to struggle, with a 20.8% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of 17.8%, 15.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year during the week of July 21-27, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidy funds [2]. - The film box office saw a significant improvement, with a 49.0% increase week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, attributed to the release of new films during the summer season [2]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - The construction sector remains weak, impacting the construction activity and leading to a decline in steel prices, while float glass prices continue to rise [3]. - Manufacturing activity has slowed down, particularly in the automotive and chemical sectors, while the oil asphalt sector has seen a rebound, indicating some resilience in infrastructure demand [3]. - Industrial metal prices have decreased due to weak demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs, alongside a decline in sentiment regarding the "involution" phenomenon [3]. Group 3: Human Flow and Logistics - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, with a 3.3% week-on-week increase in the Baidu migration scale index and a 21.0% year-on-year increase [4]. - Freight logistics have shown a slight decline, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively week-on-week, but still showing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 6.5% [4]. - Sea freight prices have decreased, and domestic port cargo and container throughput have dropped by 5.0% and 8.5% respectively week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in export activity [4].