核心观点： 前言：今年以来食品饮料板块收益率大幅跑输，位列31 个申万一级行业倒数第二，仅次于煤炭，个股 选择重要性大幅提升。以申万行业分类为参考，将有基金参与（25H1 基金持股比例>1%）且最新市值 大于100 亿元的食品饮料个股进行涨跌幅排序，年初至今收益率为正的公司仅15 家，其中万辰集团、卫 龙美味、妙可蓝多、新乳业、东鹏饮料、盐津铺子、山西汾酒、安琪酵母、泸州老窖和燕京啤酒等股价 表现居前，同时期内食品饮料指数下跌5%。我们以"2025 年个股复盘"专题切入，回顾年初至今核心公 司推荐逻辑及市场预期差变化。 投资建议：（1）白酒方面：白酒历经四年调整期，2025 年有望迎来"估值+业绩"双底，板块进入中周 期买点，股息率与十年期国债收益率比值较高，配置性价比显现，看好行业出清后需求面的恢复。核心 推荐：山西汾酒、泸州老窖、古井贡酒、今世缘、贵州茅台、五粮液，关注酒鬼酒、水井坊等次高端白 酒公司的盈利拐点。（2）大众品方面：大众品行业渠道变革，消费者追求"性价比+高价值"。为适应消 费趋势和渠道变化，我国大众品企业需关注性价比、健康、便捷、功能等需求，产品力强的细分赛道龙 头有望受益。核心推荐：天味 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年8月26日 如何做到攻守兼备配底仓 底仓再审视（二） S0980521030001 S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 布局底仓与灵活进攻一样重要。过去 15 年的历史轮动告诉我们：无论极端左侧抄底还是右侧追涨，长期收益都低且回撤极深， 关键在于择时误判和换仓冲击。而一篮子 "高分红 × 低波动" 的红利资产，却能在收益与回撤之间保持明显优势，为组合提 供天然的"减震垫"。用稳定现金流和低 β 先把波动压住，再用剩余仓位去捕捉景气错配，组合才能穿越牛熊而不被极端行情 击穿。 ◼ 在红利池里放大收益：高息≠高收益，双筛才靠谱。底仓确定后，问题变成：如何在泛红利资产里放大收益。实践证明，单凭 "高股息"表观指标筛选往往买到外表光鲜、内里不确定性的公司——收益提升有限，波动却更大。只有再叠加 低波、盈利 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-08-25 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 17416.22 | | 52 | 周最高 | 19809.29 | | 52 | 周最低 | 14118.56 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《圣贝拉（2508.HK）：产康全周期业务 快速增长，经调利润弹性释放》 - 2025.0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is entering a low base period for operations, and the dividend yield advantage is becoming evident. The performance of mass-market products is showing differentiation, with a focus on the potential of new business models [4][14] - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for improved revenue and profit performance in the second half of 2025 due to a low base effect [4][16] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The implementation of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has impacted normal consumption scenarios, but recent media corrections may help restore some consumption [4][14] - The overall sales volume in the white liquor industry has declined year-on-year, with high-end brands experiencing manageable declines while mid-range brands have seen more significant drops [4][14] - The stock price declines for major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have been substantial, with maximum declines of -47.48% and -65.98% respectively since 2021 [5][15] - The expected dividend yields for major brands in 2025 are competitive with other sectors, indicating a potential for investment [6][17] Mass-Market Products - Companies like Angel Yeast and Weilong have shown robust performance, with Angel Yeast reporting a revenue increase of 10.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [18][29] - Weilong's new product lines have performed well, and the company is focusing on expanding its product categories and improving operational efficiency [18][20] - The mass-market segment is entering a reporting period, with companies like Anqi Yeast and Weilong showing positive growth trends [18][21] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index has shown a slight increase of +0.48% in the recent week, but it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index [8][21] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage sector has faced challenges, with a cumulative decline of -6.11%, indicating a lag in recovery compared to other sectors [21][22] - The highest performing sub-sectors this week included seasoning and fermentation products, with a notable increase of +2.19% [21][25]

证券研究报告 食品饮料：大众品行业周报 业绩窗口期，持续推荐高景气板块 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 分析师：王萌S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 2025年8月11日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周观点 行情回顾：本周食品饮料行业累计涨跌幅0.75%。CS食品（CI005823）和CS饮料（CI005822）标的中，涨幅前三的个股为： 西麦食品（+10.32%）、金字火腿（+9.38%）、紫燕食品（+7.56%）；跌幅后五的个股为熊猫乳品（-3.17%）、金达威（- 3.18%）、贝因美（-5.63%）、科拓生物（-5.88%）、阳光乳业（-13.54%）。 投资建议：当前已进入半年报披露期，各细分赛道之间的业绩产生分化。已披露半年报的公司中，以锅圈、东鹏饮料为代 表的部分公司业绩表现亮眼。展望后市，我们建议一是循着中报寻找业绩确定性强的标的，推荐东鹏饮料，建议关注锅圈、 卫龙美味、盐津铺子；二是育儿补贴政策驱动叠加原奶周期反转预期，关注乳制品的投资机会，推荐伊利股份、妙可蓝多， 建议关注新乳业；三是餐饮供应链后续有望迎 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with increased catalysts for investment and improved cost-effectiveness in allocations. Factors include ongoing policy adjustments, low fund allocations in Q2 2025, and rising dividend yields from liquor companies [5][6] - The overall beverage market is experiencing a shift towards new consumption patterns, particularly in instant retail and tea beverage sectors, driven by efficiency and scale [6][7] - The report highlights a focus on key companies within the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [5][7] Summary by Sections Industry News - The liquor manufacturing industry's profit decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year [16] - The production of Renhuai liquor is expected to exceed 310,000 tons in 2024 [16] - Regulatory measures in Guiyang have been introduced to liquor companies [16] Company News - Guizhou Moutai has undergone personnel adjustments in its supervisory board [16] - SheDe JiuYe's board member resigned from his position [16] Key Company Feedback - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio in the liquor sector, with a focus on companies that are actively engaging in market strategies and product differentiation [5][6] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance over the past month, with a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - The liquor sector is currently undergoing a destocking cycle, facing multiple pressures from pricing, demand, and policy [5] Key Data Trends - In 2024, the liquor industry is projected to generate revenue of 796.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [35] - The cumulative production of liquor in 2024 is expected to be 4.145 million tons, down 7.72% year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy is expected to stimulate overall consumption in the long term, particularly benefiting the infant food sector [8]. - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting indicate a commitment to proactive fiscal and monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [5]. - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1.45% over the past two weeks, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% [3][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past year, the food and beverage sector has shown a 5.7% increase, but it has lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index in the short term [3][17]. - The health products segment experienced the smallest decline of 0.01%, while processed foods and meat products fell by 0.16% and 0.30%, respectively [17]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the liquor segment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [28]. - In the consumer goods segment, recommended stocks include BaiRun Co., WeiLong, Salted Fish, Nongfu Spring, and others [28]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant drop in the number of banquet reservations for graduation ceremonies, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to recent restrictions [5]. - New product launches by companies like Qiaqia are accelerating, with a focus on innovative and differentiated products to capture market share [9]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, with a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.2% [10]. - The report notes that the beverage market is facing pressure from price wars, particularly in the bottled water segment, impacting profitability [11]. Valuation Metrics - As of August 1, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 20.23x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [23].

Core Insights - The market experienced its smoothest main upward phase since the beginning of the year in July, with a 3.74% increase and a maximum drawdown of 1.18% [3][6] - The "anti-involution" policies and the emphasis on stabilizing growth in key industries contributed to market acceleration and improved profit-making effects [3][6] - Small-cap, growth, and loss-making stocks outperformed in July, with sectors like steel, pharmaceuticals, building materials, and communications leading the gains [3][10] Market Performance Summary - In July, the market saw a significant increase, with the main index rising 3.74% and achieving the highest monthly Sharpe and Calmar ratios of the year [6][8] - The average number of stocks hitting the daily limit dropped from over 70 to around 50 by the end of July, indicating a slight easing in profit-making effects [3][43] - The small-cap index outperformed the large-cap index, with small-cap stocks rising 5.54% compared to 3.48% for large-cap stocks [10] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of identifying companies that only incur losses in profits but maintain positive cash flow, particularly in the cement and chemical sectors [3][98] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive excess returns, with a projected initial pulse of around 20 percentage points, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks [3][91] - Industries experiencing supply contraction and rising demand include upstream coking coal, midstream engineering machinery, and downstream white goods and pharmaceuticals [3][115] Thematic Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the industries benefiting from childbirth subsidies, including maternal and infant products, children's healthcare, and early education services [3][118] - Key areas of focus include digital transformation in industries and consumption services, particularly in regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the Yangtze River Delta [3][120]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector has regained upward momentum, with the food ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.48% as of the latest report [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Kweichow Moutai, Gujing Distillery, and Guangzhou Restaurant, have seen gains exceeding 1% [1] - Kweichow Moutai announced plans to establish a research institute in collaboration with its controlling shareholder, aimed at enhancing technological capabilities and maintaining market position [3] Group 2 - The food ETF (515710) has a significant holding in Kweichow Moutai, accounting for 14.61% of its portfolio as of the second quarter of 2025 [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the food ETF's underlying index is 20.58, indicating a favorable valuation for long-term investment [4] - Analysts expect the food and beverage sector to benefit from economic recovery policies, with a potential increase in demand in the second half of the year [5] Group 3 - The food ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with a diversified portfolio that includes dairy, seasoning, and beer sectors [6] - The ETF's top holdings include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, reflecting a strategic focus on core assets in the food and beverage industry [6]

Industry and Company Insights - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the overall market, with a 4.00% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector, driven by a 6.86% rise in the chemical pharmaceutical segment [8][9] - China National Pharmaceutical plans to acquire Lixin Pharmaceutical for a valuation of $1 billion, enhancing its technological platform and international capabilities [9][10] - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is optimistic about the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., which has attracted investments totaling 11.5 billion yuan [11] - The food and beverage sector saw a decrease in fund holdings in the liquor segment, while the consumer goods segment experienced slight increases [12][14] - The automotive industry reported a 13.8% year-on-year increase in sales, with new energy vehicles accounting for 45.8% of total new car sales in June 2025 [15][16] Financial Engineering - The public FOF fund market saw a 10.01% increase in total scale, reaching 166.198 billion yuan by Q2 2025, with a median return of 2.62% for equity-focused FOFs [24][25] - The number of FOF products reached 518, with a significant portion allocated to equity and balanced funds [24][25] Company-Specific Analysis - Keda Li (002850.SZ) reported a net profit of 750-820 million yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16%-27% [22] - TBEA (600089.SH) is expected to benefit from the coal industry's recovery due to a recent government initiative to stabilize coal supply and pricing [23]