市场上周宽幅震荡，资金面层面，市场量能偏低，多种技术指标偏弱。 周五的市场加速下跌早有端倪，进入11月后市场持续平淡，宏观层面短期利空因素更多，如地缘政治风 险、美国降息预期降低、美国国内对AI巨头盈利能力担忧加剧、国内基本面持续弱势等。资金面层 面，随着市场调整居民端增量资金继续观望，而年底接近和公募基金考核标准的导向变化也使得公募行 为更加保守。在此背景下美股科技股下跌更易带动国内相关标的调整。避险类红利和一些顺周期行业短 期表现较好，短期市场大背景仍将是震荡，应降低一些收益预期，红利避险类短期可能继续占优。中期 市场回顾 上周A股主要指数均下跌，调整中量能降低。 31个申万一级行业中银行、传媒和食品饮料相对表现较好。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/11/17-2025/11/21 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/11/17-2025/11/21 宏观数据分析 美国9月新增非农就业为11.9万人，超预期（预期5.1万），但8月数据从2.2万下修至-0.4万；失业率 4.4%，略高于预期和前值（4.3%）。此为美国政府走出停摆后的第一 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a notable acceleration in the rotation rhythm between and within sectors, including AI, new energy, resource products, and consumer goods, although the sustainability of the upward trend is limited [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent wide fluctuations in the A-share market are influenced by both domestic and international factors, including a decline in risk appetite in overseas markets and resistance at the 4000-point level [1][2] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term, with a potential rebalancing of market styles lasting several months, while technology growth sectors like TMT and advanced manufacturing are anticipated to lead index breakthroughs in the longer term [1][3] Market Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue its oscillation pattern, with rapid sector rotation observed, particularly as funds shift from previously high-performing technology sectors to lower-performing sectors such as resources, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [2][3] - Analysts from various firms indicate that the current market structure reflects a global trend of "rebalancing," with funds moving away from technology stocks due to concerns over AI bubbles and external events impacting risk preferences [2][3] - The investment strategy should focus on structural allocation around themes of "anti-involution" and AI applications, leveraging trends in prosperity, policy direction, and capital flow to achieve excess returns [2][3] Sector Performance - In the context of year-end market style assessments, analysts suggest that sectors that have lagged may perform better during this oscillation phase, with a focus on high-dividend, consumer, and cyclical stocks [3][4] - The technology sector, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing, is expected to maintain a long-term advantage due to relative profitability and global semiconductor cycles, despite a temporary shift towards value stocks [3][4] - The current market environment is characterized by a high degree of volatility, driven by valuation and expectations, with a potential shift back to technology stocks as the underlying industrial logic strengthens [3][5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The Alibaba Tongyi App has been officially renamed "Qianwen," fully competing with ChatGPT. This move marks a significant strategic layout following Alibaba's announcement of a 380 billion yuan investment in AI infrastructure. The launch of a consumer-facing product indicates a new phase in the commercialization of its technology, showcasing the determination of domestic tech giants to break through in AI applications [2][20] - In October, "Honor of Kings" topped the global mobile game revenue growth chart, driven by its tenth-anniversary celebration, which boosted in-game purchases by 11% month-on-month. This highlights Tencent's strong capabilities in long-term IP operation and user engagement. The report suggests that leading games will continue to support stable growth for major gaming companies through ongoing content updates and refined operations [3][21] - Current investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, emphasizing social value; 2) The gaming industry, benefiting from policy incentives to boost domestic demand; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, with consumption policies promoting cinema recovery and stimulating demand [21] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" with 258.916 million yuan (60.6% market share), "Now You See Me 3" with 73.173 million yuan (17.1%), and "Predator: The Kill Zone" with 29.01 million yuan (6.8%) [22][23] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Delta Force," "Honor of Kings," and "Valorant: Energy Action." The top three Android games are "Heart Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "Staff Sword Legend" [24] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "Tang Dynasty Strange Stories: Chang'an," "Water Dragon Chant," and "Four Happiness," with indices of 84.8, 82.9, and 81.7 respectively [25][26] Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3," followed by "Flowers and Youth: Together" and "Wonderful Night Season 2." The top animation is "Little Magic Food Encyclopedia" with a viewership index of 193.2 [27][30]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51%. The North Stock 50 increased by 0.19% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20,202 billion yuan, a decrease of 557 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The organic silicon, chemical, energy metals, Hainan Free Trade Zone, photovoltaic equipment, and port shipping sectors saw the largest gains [1] - Conversely, the AI corpus, quantum technology, humanoid robots, cloud computing, and brain-computer interface sectors experienced the most significant declines [1] ETF Performance - The chemical sector was strong, with several ETFs such as Huabao Fund Chemical ETF, Guotai Fund Chemical Leader ETF, and others rising over 3% [1] - The new materials sector also performed well, with ETFs from Jianxin Fund, Ping An Fund, and Guotai Fund increasing by 2.46%, 2.44%, and 2.41% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend, with the Puyin Ansheng Fund Photovoltaic Leader ETF rising by 2.28% [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong internet sector declined, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF falling by 2.89% and 2.62% respectively [1] - The software sector also showed negative performance, with the Software Leader ETF and Software 50 ETF dropping by 2.44% and 2.41% respectively [1] - The artificial intelligence sector saw a comprehensive decline, with the AI ETF and Financial Technology ETF both falling by over 2% [1]

Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a trend of upward fluctuation, with major indices experiencing more declines than gains. The overall large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Sectors such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals saw significant gains, while media, beauty care, and automotive sectors lagged behind. The average daily trading volume was 2.16 billion, with margin trading remaining at 2.4 trillion [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US-China trade conflict has entered a phase of easing. In October, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a gradual adaptation to external changes. The focus of macroeconomic policy may shift towards areas that are relatively "not hot," with potential for monetary policy easing, including possible rate cuts and the implementation of investment-boosting policies [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The market is expected to experience a rebound, supported by the outcomes of the 20th National Congress and progress in US-China trade negotiations. However, without significant policy catalysts, the market may enter a phase of adjustment post-meeting. The investment outlook remains positive, with expectations for a "spring rally" and opportunities for positioning in the market as economic transformation accelerates and risk-free rates decline [4][5]. Specific Investment Directions - Focus areas for investment include: 1) Technology growth sectors such as internet, TMT, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense [5] 2) New materials and cyclical products with improved market conditions, including chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel [5] 3) Financial sectors such as brokerage, banking, and insurance [5] 4) Consumer goods towards the end of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall macroeconomic environment, liquidity conditions, and market risk appetite are expected to improve, with a focus on growth sectors following the completion of Q3 earnings reports and the anticipated U.S.-China negotiations in early November [1][3]. Macroeconomic Overview - Economic recovery is showing signs of divergence, with Q4 incremental policies likely to be weak. Q3 GDP growth has slowed, continuing a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI shows overall deceleration. Structural pressures persist during the recovery phase [2]. - PPI has rebounded significantly year-on-year, indicating a stabilization trend, but weak demand continues to drag on CPI and PPI forecasts, making it unlikely for PPI to turn positive this year. M2 growth has reached a new high for the year, reflecting slight activation of funding vitality, although retail sales growth continues to decline [2]. Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is showing signs of cooling, with the Fourth Plenary Session setting the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, although market reactions have been muted. There is potential for unexpected policy developments in the future [2]. - The central bank's supportive stance is evident through measures such as the resumption of 14-day reverse repos and MLF operations, leading to an overall improvement in liquidity conditions [2]. Investment Strategy - With the macro environment improving, the market is expected to focus on growth sectors. Key investment themes include: 1. Sectors with strong Q3 performance and continued growth potential, particularly in technology (storage, domestic computing power, consumer electronics, overseas AI applications), innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy [3]. 2. Cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, with improved industrial profits in steel, chemicals, and new energy [3]. 3. If market risk appetite increases significantly, attention should be given to solid-state batteries, robotics, and AI applications [3]. 4. Long-term focus on emerging sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, including artificial intelligence, aerospace development, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and quantum economy [3]. Sector Recommendations - Continued recommendations for growth sectors include: - Technology: Positive trends in domestic and overseas computing power, with multiple sub-sectors exceeding performance expectations [3]. - Consumer: Innovative pharmaceuticals and CXO sectors expected to show upward trends in Q3 reports [3]. - High-end manufacturing: Wind power and energy storage maintaining high demand, with potential turning points in battery and photovoltaic sectors [3]. - Cyclical: Steel and chemical sectors expected to see gradual profit improvements, with a focus on copper and aluminum benefiting from U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that while the technology sector has high internal competition among sub-sectors, the overall technology style is not crowded. [1] Summary by Categories Technology Sector - 59.5% of the tracked technology sub-sectors have a trading volume that exceeds the 75% level of the technology sector over the past three years [1] - The trading volume of the major technology category currently stands at the 50th percentile of the past three years in relation to the entire A-share market [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sub-sectors with less internal trading competition, such as Hong Kong internet and consumer electronics [1] - Consider global pricing resources that benefit from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and overseas fiscal expansion, such as gold and copper [1] - Pay attention to manufacturing sectors related to overseas demand [1]

Core Insights - The new energy sector is experiencing a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with positive changes on the supply side driven by market factors and "anti-involution" policies [1][2] - Investment opportunities are not only arising from supply improvements but also depend on sustained demand performance [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - After a prolonged adjustment period, the new energy sector has shown significant strength this year, with prices and profits at low levels across various segments [2] - The supply-demand gap in the industry has been narrowing since last year, and there is a strong possibility of a supply shortage next year, leading to a sustained price increase cycle [2] - Recent stabilization in lithium carbonate prices is crucial for the new energy industry, as it is more market-driven compared to cobalt prices, which are influenced by non-market factors [2] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, selecting companies with global competitiveness and supporting their growth over the long term [4] - The current investment portfolio is concentrated in new energy, electronics, machinery, and military industries, with a "two-end allocation" strategy that emphasizes technology and AI on one end and new energy and military on the other [4] - AI technology is accelerating its implementation across various sectors, contributing to actual revenue for some companies, indicating a continuous emergence of high-quality investment opportunities [4]

Market Review - A-shares major indices rose last week, with trading volume slightly decreasing amidst divergence [1] - Among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, electronics, real estate, and agriculture showed relatively strong performance [1] Macro Data Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0.0%; month-on-month remained at 0.0% [3] - PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 3.6%; month-on-month remained at 0.0% [3] - The decline in CPI was attributed to a high base from the previous year and low food price increases [3] - PPI showed signs of improvement due to the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, with significant price increases in coal processing and black metal industries [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with high levels of market liquidity and margin financing, although there was a slight decrease [5] - Since August, the market has shown characteristics of a structural bull market, particularly in technology sectors [5] - Current market movements are characterized by low trading volumes, indicating limited downward pressure [5] - Despite some fundamental pressures, the overall liquidity and sentiment environment remains supportive of thematic opportunities [5] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors should maintain a low allocation, while observing extreme market developments [6] - Focus on sectors with catalysts, such as anti-involution related industries and real estate chain rebound stocks [6] - In offensive sectors, technology remains a key focus, with strong performance expected in autonomous control, solid-state, energy storage, and robotics [6] - Consumer sectors are anticipated to benefit from policy support and increased market activity, particularly in construction and chemical industries [6]

Core Insights - On September 17, the A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs, and total trading volume amounting to 2.38 trillion yuan [1][2] - The stock ETF market experienced a net inflow of 9.5 billion yuan on the same day, with significant inflows observed in sectors such as securities, robotics, Hong Kong internet, and technology ETFs [1][2] - Since the beginning of September, stock ETFs have collectively attracted over 40 billion yuan, with notable inflows in sectors like securities, Hong Kong internet, and robotics [1][6] Fund Flow Analysis - As of September 17, the total scale of 1,209 stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 4.42 trillion yuan [2] - On that day, 55 stock ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top three being Guotai Securities ETF, E Fund Robotics ETF, and Fuguo Hong Kong Internet ETF, each exceeding 650 million yuan in inflows [2][4] - The top sectors for net inflows included securities (1.99 billion yuan), robotics (1.90 billion yuan), and the ChiNext (1.28 billion yuan) [2][3] Outflow Analysis - Conversely, 15 stock ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, particularly in the Sci-Tech 50, CSI A500, and Hang Seng Technology ETFs, as well as sectors like coal, healthcare, and chemicals [5][6] - The top outflowing ETFs included the Sci-Tech 50 ETF with a net outflow of nearly 1 billion yuan, and the CSI A500 ETF with a net outflow of approximately 500 million yuan [6][7] Fund Management Insights - E Fund's ETFs reported significant inflows, with the Robotics ETF seeing 760 million yuan and the Hong Kong Internet ETF 550 million yuan on September 17 [3] - According to E Fund's manager, the domestic economic recovery is expected to continue, supported by industrial policies and increased R&D investment, enhancing the competitiveness of China's advantageous industries [6] - Galaxy Fund noted that the current market sentiment is cautious, focusing on areas influenced by industrial transformation and policy impacts, suggesting future opportunities in technology-driven sectors [6]