现代牧业(01117)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得收入60.73亿元，期内亏损9.84 亿元，每股亏损11.67分。 健康牛群结构：截止2025年6月30日，本集团共饲养47.25万头乳牛，同比增长6.2%，其中成乳牛占比为 54.1%，同比提升3.5个百分点，符合本集团的整体牛群管理策略。 原料奶业务持续增长：期内，成乳牛平均年化单产及总产奶量双双创历史新高。成乳牛平均年化产量达 13.2吨，同比增长1.5%，居于行业领先水平。期内，原料奶总产量达166.1万吨，同比增长14.6%。 本集团以"布局产业链，数智创新，做全球牧业引领者"为企业愿景，以原料奶生产为核心业务，通过数 智化转型和生态化发展双轮驱动，构建覆盖乳业全价值链的业务体系。目前业务范围涵盖：种业研发、 牧草种植、饲料、奶牛养殖及产业链数智平台。通过全产业链协同发展模式，集团业务保持稳健增长态 势。 强劲经营现金流：本集团持续推动提质增效，期内成本节约取得显著成效，取得经营活动所得现金净额 4.9亿元，较2024年同期增加23.3%，增强了企业核心竞争力和行业周期的抵御能力。 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2941.27 点(周环比+3.72%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4378.00 点（周环比+4.18%），深证综指收于 2393.21 点（周环比+4.02%），上证综指收于 3825.76 点（周环比+3.49%），科 创板收于 1247.86 点（周环比+13.31%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 127.98 公斤/头，价格偏弱下散户出栏积极性提升，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.12%至 17.32%， 在价格持续下跌以及部分地区天气转凉的背景下，生猪出栏节奏有所放缓，整体看出栏均重依旧处于较高位置，后续 生猪价格仍存在较大压力。目前政策端对能繁母猪存栏向下调控方向不变，此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续 加强环保管理，部分母猪场因环保因素开始整顿。当下猪价表现下成本较差企业已经出现亏损，预计养殖成本较差企 业已经开始调减产能，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，预计短期生猪价格依旧存在较大压力。若行业产能有序调控， 预计近期能繁母猪存栏出现下降，中期行业盈利中枢有望提升。 ...

01 市场概况 2025年8月21日，三大指数涨跌各现，其中沪指上涨0.13%，收报3771.10点；深证成指下跌-0.06%，收报11919.76点；创业板指 下跌-0.47%，收报2595.47点。今日两市成交额24235亿元，与上个交易日相比增加约158亿元。 02 | | 概念板块 | 今日涨跌幅↓ | 5日涨跌幅 | 30日涨跌幅 | 今年以来 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 可落冰 | 3.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 33.0% | | | 数字货币 | 2.4% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 46.2% | | | 跨境支付(CIPS) | 2.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 36.2% | | 물 | 草日滕 | 2.0% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 28.5% | | 派 | | | | | | | 幅 | 电子身份证 | 1.9% | 5.1% | 14.6% | 40.2% | | 前 | 钛白粉概念 | 1.9% | 6.0% | 12.9% | 28.7% | | - | 移动支付 | 1.7% | 5 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，8-9月青贮采购季牧场收储资金压力较大，社会存栏有望加 速去化。25H2受益于供给端热应激下减产与前期后备牛去化效果显现，需求旺季下行业有望进入供需 平衡通道。受进口牛肉量缩减影响(25H1同比-9.5%)，25年以来牛肉/活牛价格低位反转，较前期低点上 涨约10%/20%，供给去化下牛价有望进一步增长。肉奶周期共振下牧业企业盈利弹性较强。建议增持牧 业龙头优然牧业(09858)、现代牧业(01117)，关注中国圣牧(01432)、澳亚集团(02425)。 风险提示 近年来牛肉价格历经三轮周期：1)2010-17年：人均可支配收入提升推动高档牛肉需求增长，供不应求 下牛肉价格快速上涨；2)2018-22年，非洲猪瘟影响下猪肉、禽肉价格飙升，需求增长下牛肉价格快速 上行；3)2023年至今：23年牛肉价格持续下行，主要受累于供给端进口低价牛肉挤压需求与上行期存栏 增长产能释放，以及替代性猪肉、禽肉等价格低位。 25年牛价进入上行周期，受益供给去化与进口影响减弱 牧场亏损下供给端能繁母牛存栏持续去化，超量屠宰下供给缺口有望进一步扩大，近年来行业亏损面继 续加大，24年1-1 ...

1．国务院发布关于《中国（江苏）自由贸易试验区生物医药全产业链开放创新发展方案》的批复，原 则同意《中国（江苏）自由贸易试验区生物医药全产业链开放创新发展方案》（简称《方案》），《方 案》实施要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动 高质量发展，更好统筹发展和安全，以高水平开放为引领、以制度创新为核心，开展首创性、集成式探 索，推动生物医药全产业链集成创新发展，将中国（江苏）自由贸易试验区打造成为具有世界影响力的 生物医药产业集聚地、更具国际竞争力的生物医药创新发展高地。 重要的消息有哪些 2．8月21日，国家能源局发布7月份全社会用电量等数据。7月份，全社会用电量10226亿千瓦时，同比 增长8.6%。从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量170亿千瓦时，同比增长20.2%；第二产业用电量5936亿 千瓦时，同比增长4.7%；第三产业用电量2081亿千瓦时，同比增长10.7%；城乡居民生活用电量2039亿 千瓦时，同比增长18.0%。1—7月，全社会用电量累计58633亿千瓦时，同比增长4.5%，其中规模以上 工业发电量为54703亿千瓦时。 3．国务院新闻办公室将于202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing decline in raw milk prices and anticipates a faster reduction in livestock inventory in 25H2, which is expected to benefit beef and live cattle prices due to supply reduction and diminished import impacts, indicating strong profit elasticity for livestock companies amid the resonance of meat and dairy cycles [1][2]. Summary by Sections Raw Milk Prices and Supply-Demand Balance - Raw milk prices continue to decline, with expectations for supply-demand balance in 25H2. The financial pressure on farms during the silage procurement season in August-September is likely to accelerate the reduction of social inventory. The industry is expected to enter a supply-demand balance channel due to reduced production from heat stress and the effects of previous heifer inventory reductions, alongside a seasonal demand increase [2][3]. Beef and Live Cattle Price Trends - Beef prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 25, following a low point in 2023. The decline in beef prices from 2023 was primarily due to low-priced imported beef squeezing demand and increased domestic production capacity. In 25, the reduction in supply and diminished import impacts are anticipated to lead to a price rebound, with beef and live cattle prices rising approximately 10% and 20% from previous lows, respectively [3][4]. Profit Elasticity in Livestock Companies - The resonance of meat and dairy cycles is expected to enhance profit elasticity for livestock companies. The gross profit margin is projected to improve significantly due to rising milk prices and reduced unit costs. If sales milk prices increase by 10% or 20%, leading dairy companies could see gross margin improvements of over 6 percentage points or 10 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, the fair value of breeding cows is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and lower feeding costs [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that raw milk prices continue to decline, and there is potential for supply-demand balance in H2 2025 due to accelerated herd reduction and improved demand during peak seasons [2][3] - The report suggests that the dairy industry is likely to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced dairy cow replenishment and a recovery in demand, supported by new policies aimed at boosting dairy consumption [2][3] - The beef market is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2025, as low beef prices have started to reverse, benefiting from reduced supply and diminished import pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights strong profit elasticity for livestock companies due to the resonance of meat and milk cycles, with potential improvements in gross margins driven by rising milk prices and cost reductions [4] - The valuation of breeding cows and income from culling are expected to increase with rising beef prices, which could enhance total revenue for leading livestock companies [4] - Companies like YouRan Dairy and Modern Farming are recommended for investment, while China Shengmu and Aoyuan Group are noted as companies to watch due to their involvement in the livestock sector [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in specific segments [7]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [13]. - The report highlights that while short-term pressures exist, there are signs of stabilization in various segments, particularly in pig farming and planting chains [19][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2835.81 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite saw gains of 1.70% and 3.63% respectively [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, a slight increase [19][20]. - The report indicates that the industry is facing pressure with weak demand leading to increased slaughtering activity, and some producers are beginning to cut back on production due to losses [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.20 yuan/kg, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 14.10 yuan/kg, up 1.44% [30]. - The report notes that while prices are under pressure, there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [30]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 26.80 yuan/kg, up 0.37% week-on-week, indicating a gradual recovery in the beef market [35]. - The report anticipates that the dairy sector may stabilize in the second half of 2025 as supply constraints begin to ease [35]. 2.4 Planting Chain - Domestic corn prices were stable at 2,318.57 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 0.67% to 3,952.63 yuan/ton [38]. - The report suggests that if there are significant reductions in grain production, the planting sector could see improved conditions [39]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a stable cost environment [55]. - Aquaculture prices showed stability, with various fish prices remaining unchanged, indicating a steady market [55].

Macro and Strategy - The government bond weekly report indicates that the "cleaning debt" special bonds disclosed exceed 100 billion [5][9] - As of the 32nd week (August 4-10), the cumulative net financing of government bonds reached 9.6 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 4.9 trillion [8][9] Industry and Company - The energy storage industry has proposed an "anti-involution" initiative, focusing on improving profitability for energy storage companies [10] - China Unicom (600050.SH) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong momentum in computing power business [14][15] - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) achieved a 51% year-on-year profit growth in Q2, with continuous increases in the shipment of the GB200 series [16][17] - Jiemai Technology (002859.SZ) is seeing batch imports of release films, with significant growth expected in composite current collectors [20][21] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) reported a gross margin exceeding guidance in Q2 2025, maintaining full capacity utilization [24] - Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) saw a 9.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, adjusting its product structure according to market conditions [28][30] - Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) faced a 55.2% year-on-year decline in net profit due to pressure on distribution channels and increased expense ratios [31][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on energy storage companies that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, highlighting firms like Sungrow Power, Sungrow, and CATL [10] - For the livestock industry, the report recommends companies like Yuran Livestock and Modern Animal Husbandry, anticipating a reversal in the cattle cycle in 2025 [13] - The report maintains a "better than market" rating for China Unicom, projecting net profits of 95/101/109 billion for 2025-2027 [16] - Industrial Fulian's investment outlook is positive, with an upward revision of profit expectations due to strong demand for AI infrastructure [19] - Jiemai Technology is expected to maintain a "better than market" rating, with projected net profits of 2.58/3.39/4.29 billion for 2025-2027 [23]

Summary of Livestock Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The livestock industry is experiencing a cyclical opportunity due to the resonance between beef and milk markets, with domestic beef supply expected to remain tight for the next two to three years, leading to continuous price increases [1][2][7]. Key Points Beef Market Dynamics - Domestic beef supply is in a tight state, primarily due to tightened import policies and a reduction in livestock numbers, with a projected price increase of approximately 35% from current levels to reach previous highs [1][3][9]. - The number of domestic beef cattle has decreased to approximately 99.92 million heads by the end of Q2 2025, influenced by ongoing losses among farmers [3][8]. - The beef price increase is supported by a 10% reduction in imports during the first half of the year, which has significantly impacted prices [3]. Milk Market Dynamics - The raw milk cycle is at the tail end of a downward trend, with prices having dropped by about 30% from the previous peak in late 2021, stabilizing around 3 RMB per kilogram in the first half of 2025 [10][12]. - The supply of raw milk is expected to decline year-on-year, with a 2.8% decrease in production noted, marking the end of six consecutive years of growth [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in the beef cycle and the raw milk cycle, with significant resonance effects expected as both markets evolve [2][5][7]. - Hong Kong-listed livestock companies are seen as advantageous investment targets due to their exposure to both rising beef prices and the impending turning point in the raw milk cycle [5]. Challenges for Small and Medium-sized Farms - Small and medium-sized farms face multiple challenges, including high cash costs, reduced financial support, and rising feed prices, which exacerbate operational pressures [13]. - The majority of beef producers are small-scale, with over 90% of farms having fewer than 10 heads, making them highly sensitive to price fluctuations [8]. Future Projections - The expectation is for continued tight supply in the domestic beef market, which will exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and drive prices higher over the next two to three years [7]. - The raw milk cycle is anticipated to reach a turning point soon, further enhancing investment opportunities in the sector [7]. Deep Processing and Product Development - The Chinese dairy industry has historically focused on liquid milk, but there is a growing trend towards deep processing, with major dairy companies beginning to invest in this area [4][15][16]. - The current surplus of raw milk presents a window for developing deep processing capabilities, which could reduce reliance on imports and enhance domestic production efficiency [15][16]. Company Valuations - Current valuations for Hong Kong-listed livestock companies show potential for significant upside, with price-to-book (PB) ratios around 1.3 for YouRan and 1 for Modern, compared to previous peaks of 2-2.5 [4][18]. - The optimistic profit expectations for YouRan suggest a potential market capitalization of around 20 billion RMB based on peak net profit margins [18]. Recommended Companies - Key recommended companies include YouRan, ShengMu, and TianRun, each with unique strengths and market positions, making them suitable investment targets in the current market environment [5][19][20].