证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 26 日 金风科技（002202.SZ） 25H1 风机制造盈利显著修复，风电服务出海趋势加速 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 50,457 | 56,699 | 72,681 | 80,485 | 88,224 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 8.7 | 12.4 | 28.2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,331 | 1,860 | 3,013 | 3,650 | 4,098 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -44.2 | 39.8 | 61.9 | 21.2 | 12.3 | | ROE（%） | 3.8 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 8.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.32 | 0.44 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.97 | | P/E（倍） | 33.5 | 24.0 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 10.9 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a trading volume of HKD 278.22 billion on August 19, 2025, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.573 billion. The market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low, influenced by market sentiment fluctuations and sector rotation effects [2][9]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a rise of 3.31%, driven by the government's commitment to hosting international sports events during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to positively impact the industry. The food and beverage sector also benefited from measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, leading to a 1.66% increase [5][9]. - The steel sector gained 2.26% due to the U.S. government's expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, which may favor domestic special steel enterprises with import substitution capabilities [2][9]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.21% to 25,122.9, while the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.67% and 0.30%, respectively. In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 also experienced slight declines [5][9]. - Among the sectors, textiles and apparel, steel, and food and beverage led the gains, while defense and military, electronics, and power equipment and new energy sectors faced declines [5][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates three core directions for the Hong Kong stock market to reach new highs: 1) AI technology and new consumption are expected to have significant growth potential, driving market increases; 2) Continued inflows from southbound funds will enhance pricing power; 3) The transition from loose monetary policy to loose credit, along with potential U.S. interest rate cuts, will support further market growth [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company's energy storage business has returned to a positive trajectory, with clear operational turning points [1] - The energy storage segment achieved revenue of 1.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 177.15%, with a gross margin of 32.95% [2] - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international markets, with traditional smart grid business showing steady progress [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.475 billion yuan, 6.992 billion yuan, and 8.495 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.6%, 27.7%, and 21.5% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 51 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 351 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 110.9%, 196.3%, and 134% [3] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.03 yuan, 0.09 yuan, and 0.21 yuan for 2025-2027 [3] Market and Business Development - The company has secured significant contracts in the energy storage sector, including projects with China General Nuclear Power Group and international expansions into markets like Greece, Czech Republic, and Poland [2] - The company is also planning to establish a storage production base in Indonesia, with an initial capacity of 3 GWh expected to be operational by 2026 [2] - The smart grid segment reported a revenue of 1.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.17%, but the company is focusing on overseas business development to stabilize performance [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates an increase in trading activity, with the ChiNext index leading in valuation growth [1][6] - Overall index valuations have risen, with the ChiNext index showing a 5.8 percentage point increase in PE-TTM historical percentile [6][8] - In terms of industry valuations, the electronics sector leads in PE valuation, while the comprehensive financial sector leads in PB valuation [6][8] Group 2 - Trading sentiment has improved, with an overall increase in turnover rates and transaction volumes across indices [6][9] - The turnover rate for the ChiNext index increased by 36.2%, while the transaction volume for the Shanghai 50 index rose by 41.4% [6][9] - The margin trading balance reached 2.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.01% week-on-week increase [6][9] Group 3 - The report highlights that the risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market is at 4.49%, which is a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week [6][9] - The report notes that the valuation changes are compared from August 8, 2025, to August 15, 2025, for PE and from the average of the previous week for turnover rates and transaction volumes [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in the AH premium, which has dropped from a peak of 144% in early April to 125% currently, marking a new low since 2020. This decline is attributed to the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, raising questions about the pricing logic of the AH premium and its future trends [2][20]. Group 1: AH Premium Dynamics - The AH premium arises from differences in investor structure and market mechanisms between the two markets, with the fundamental reason being the existence of arbitrage barriers [3][4]. - The premium is influenced by various factors, including liquidity differences, refinancing systems, trading mechanisms, dividend taxes, and currency exchange rates [4][20]. - Historical data shows that the AH premium has fluctuated significantly across different phases, with the current low being influenced by the performance of the financial sector and the overall market environment [8][9][13]. Group 2: Recent Changes in AH Premium - The recent rapid decline in the AH premium is attributed to three main factors: accelerated inflow of southbound funds, increased attractiveness of dividend-paying stocks, and a wave of quality companies listing in Hong Kong [20][25][29]. - Southbound funds have seen a significant increase, with inflows reaching 9,008 billion HKD this year, surpassing the total for the previous year [20][21]. - The structure of listed companies in Hong Kong has improved due to a surge in IPOs, with many high-quality firms transitioning from A to H shares, enhancing the market's appeal [29][32]. Group 3: Future Outlook of AH Premium - The long-term trend suggests a potential convergence of the AH premium, driven by the continuous attractiveness of dividend stocks and the increasing proportion of southbound funds [37][40]. - However, the premium is unlikely to be completely eliminated due to persistent differences in market mechanisms and investor structures [41][42]. - The current level of 125% is viewed as an "invisible bottom" for the AH premium, serving as a potential timing signal for market movements [42][47].

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" theme has a broader industry coverage compared to the supply-side reform from 2015-2018, including sectors like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, coal, building materials, basic chemicals, and pig farming [22][23][28] - The steel and coal industries are transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with steel profitability already improving, while photovoltaic and medical devices show stronger demand for "anti-involution" [27][28] - The report highlights that the photovoltaic and medical device sectors are in an active destocking phase, with high potential for price rebound if successful [27][28] Group 2 - The equity market is experiencing a slight decline in sentiment, with expectations for a high-level fluctuation in August, as the overall financial and industrial sentiment has decreased [31][32] - The 10Y government bond yield is expected to slightly decline to 1.70% in August, influenced by factors such as economic growth and inflation [50][53] - The real estate sector is under increasing demand-side pressure, with the industry pressure index rising slightly to 0.597, indicating a potential worsening of the market situation [69][71] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high payout industries, including computer, electric equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, transportation, and light manufacturing [4] - The "clearing reversal" strategy suggests investing in industries that are at the end of the clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive landscape, such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and utilities [4][88] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small-cap stocks, which have shown a slight increase in attention compared to large-cap stocks [87][88]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest drop in valuation [1] - Overall valuations have decreased across indices, with the CSI 300 leading the decline [1][4] - Consumer services have shown resilience in PE valuation, while banks have led in PB valuation [4][5] Index Valuation - The CSI 300 index has seen a PE-TTM historical percentile drop of 6.5 percentage points, while the PB-LF historical percentile has decreased by 7.5 percentage points [4][5] - All major indices have experienced a comprehensive decline in valuations, with the CSI 300 index leading the downturn [4][5] Industry Valuation - In terms of PE valuation, consumer services have increased by 1.0 percentage point, while banks have led in PB valuation with a 0.5 percentage point increase [4][5] - The automotive sector is noted for its cost-effectiveness in the PE-G comparison [4] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across most indices, except for the ChiNext index, which saw an increase of 2.3% in turnover rate and 8.2% in transaction volume [4][5] - The margin trading balance has risen to 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.30% increase [4][5] Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market has slightly increased to 4.71%, up by 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [4][5]

Group 1 - The report recommends a focus on cyclical sectors for August 2025, including oil and petrochemicals, construction, banking, agriculture, building materials, automotive, media, textiles, and pharmaceuticals [2][26][54] - The multi-strategy approach has achieved an annualized relative return of 7.08% since July 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.03% [2][26][62] - The dynamic balance strategy has an annualized absolute return of 16.45% from 2015 to July 2025, with a relative maximum drawdown of 10.18% [3][20][50] Group 2 - The macro-driven strategy has an annualized excess return of 4.44% since early 2016, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [4][18][42] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with the top-performing sectors in July being steel, pharmaceuticals, communications, building materials, and construction [11][12][13] - The report indicates that the current economic diffusion is the most important macro-driven factor, with an importance score of 105.52% [34][39] Group 3 - The report identifies crowded trading conditions in sectors such as coal, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals, indicating potential risks in these areas [5][68] - The dynamic balance strategy's absolute return in July was 4.85%, underperforming the benchmark with an excess return of -0.14% [3][50] - The multi-strategy sector allocation for August includes a high weight on oil and petrochemicals, construction, and banking, with no adjustments from the previous period [54][58][62]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on July 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3615.72 points, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell to 11203.03 points, down 0.77% [1][10] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 14 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in the oil and petrochemical, steel, and food and beverage sectors, while comprehensive finance, electric equipment and new energy, and computer sectors faced significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 18710 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - On July 30, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, the S&P 500 down 0.12%, and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - Precious metals and copper concepts saw significant declines, with U.S. gold prices dropping over 7% [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but showed rare internal disagreements, leading to a sharp drop in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 68% to 45% [2] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the economic situation and set the agenda for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [12][20] - The National Development and Reform Commission is soliciting public opinions on guidelines for government investment funds [24][25] - The National Health Commission announced measures to reduce the costs of childbirth, childcare, and education, and to improve maternity leave policies [27][28] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time [29] Driving Factors - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support economic growth, including active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [11][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing domestic demand and promoting consumption while ensuring the stability of employment and businesses [16][18] - The focus on technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology was reiterated as a key driver for future economic development [17][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment, with significant trading volume increase. Cyclical stocks performed well, but funds shifted from high - risk themes to low - risk and high - certainty targets on Thursday and Friday. [2][11] - Active equity funds in the second - quarter adjusted their positions around prosperity and valuation repair, with a focus on the computing power chain, innovative drugs, military, and financial sectors. [12] - The "anti - involution" market is a theme - driven market under a capital - rich environment, and state - owned enterprises may see more marginal improvements. [13] - The technology wave is ongoing, with AI still having room for growth, and semiconductors are also worth attention due to potential low - level rebound. [4][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: From July 21 to 25, 2025, major A - share indices rose. The average daily trading volume was about 1.85 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Cyclical stocks led the rise, but funds shifted on Thursday and Friday. [11] - **Public Fund Q2 Report Adjustment**: Active equity funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and slightly raised their Hong Kong stock holdings. They concentrated less on heavy - position stocks. The top five industries for increased holdings were communication, medicine, non - bank finance, bank, and national defense and military industry, while the top five for reduced holdings were food and beverage, automobile, commerce and retail, power equipment and new energy, and machinery. [12] - **Re - discussion on "Anti - involution"**: The "anti - involution" theme stimulates traditional cyclical industries. It is a theme - driven market, and state - owned enterprises may have more marginal improvements. [13] - **Technology Sector Rebound**: The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference was held. The AI industry is booming, and semiconductors may benefit from low - level rebound. [13] 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On July 24, the second batch of 12 new floating - rate funds was approved, including industry - themed products. Some funds adjusted their management fee thresholds to strengthen performance constraints. [4][14] 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Active Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 15 funds equally weighted, with core positions balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. Its performance benchmark is the Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI). It rose 1.67% last week and has a cumulative excess return of 12.31% since its establishment. [15][16] 2.2. Value Stock Fund Selection - The index includes value - style funds, selecting 10 funds based on style classification. Its performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI). It rose 2.49% last week and has a cumulative excess return of - 3.41% since its establishment. [15][19] 2.3. Balanced Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 10 balanced - style funds. Its performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH). It rose 1.25% last week and has a cumulative excess return of 6.01% since its establishment. [15][20] 2.4. Growth Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 10 growth - style funds. Its performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI). It rose 1.68% last week and has a cumulative excess return of 18.39% since its establishment. [15][24] 2.5. Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 15 pharmaceutical - themed funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and the representative index. Its performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical - themed fund index. It fell 0.95% last week and has a cumulative excess return of 22.21% since its establishment. [15][26] 2.6. Consumption Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 10 consumption - themed funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and the representative index. Its performance benchmark is the consumption - themed fund index. It rose 0.84% last week and has a cumulative excess return of 14.87% since its establishment. [15][28] 2.7. Technology Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 10 technology - themed funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and the representative index. Its performance benchmark is the technology - themed fund index. It rose 2.35% last week and has a cumulative excess return of 17.37% since its establishment. [15][32] 2.8. High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 10 high - end manufacturing - themed funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and the representative index. Its performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing - themed fund index. It rose 1.67% last week and has a cumulative excess return of - 2.78% since its establishment. [15][32] 2.9. Cyclical Stock Fund Selection - The index selects 5 cyclical - themed funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and the representative index. Its performance benchmark is the cyclical - themed fund index. It rose 2.28% last week and has a cumulative excess return of - 0.40% since its establishment. [15][37]