成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡格局延续 区间震荡整理 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 3 日 投资咨询 ...

节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...

20260225复盘 宏观： 1. 韩国国会:通过旨在提升股票估值的商业法修订案。 人工智能： 1. 卖方：Cpo调整系市场误读花旗预测，实际上调了scale up的预测数量。 2. 卖方：GTC可能发布的新芯片为LPU芯片，主要用于推理，采用PCB板为高多层板，M9的Q布方案。 3. 欧盟知名云计算 20260225复盘 宏观： 1. 韩国国会:通过旨在提升股票估值的商业法修订案。 人工智能： 3. 传闻日本测试机进入国内大厂有一定限制。 1. 卖方：Cpo调整系市场误读花旗预测，实际上调了scale up的预测数量。 2. 卖方：GTC可能发布的新芯片为LPU芯片，主要用于推理，采用PCB板为高多层板，M9的Q布方案。 3. 欧盟知名云计算服务提供商 Hetzner从4月1日起云服务器涨价37%。 半导体： 1. 外媒报道：中国计划将先进芯片产量从目前不足2万片提升至1-2年后的10万片，到2030年再增加50万片产能的 更高目标。 2. 卖方：存储扩产预期上修，从10-12万上修到15万以上。 设备大订单即将落地。 4. 卖方：国内头部的光模块企业都在寻求封装厂合作或者并购机会，CPO工艺从精密制造转向 ...

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2025, reaching $6.566 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $545 million, up from $236 million in 2024 [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 28% to $2.101 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $176 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2024 [8] - The management guidance for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 16-18% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin of 13.1-13.3% [8] Group 2: Silver Economy and Sports Industry - The aging population in China is creating significant opportunities in the silver economy, particularly in the sports industry and products catering to older adults [9][10] - The sports apparel market is projected to reach ¥437.7 billion by 2025, with outdoor trail running shoes expected to grow over 150% [9] - The demand for professional running shoes priced above ¥200 is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increased health awareness among the elderly [9] Group 3: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium market is experiencing tightening supply and low inventory levels, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons LCE in 2026 [12][14] - Domestic lithium supply is not yet at large-scale production, with potential disruptions in lithium mica supply and new mining regulations coming into effect in July 2025 [13] - The demand for lithium is being driven by both power and energy storage batteries, with a projected 50% year-on-year growth in energy storage battery shipments [13][14] Group 4: Chemical Industry Policy - Recent tax incentives for marine oil and gas exploration aim to enhance domestic energy security by reducing import costs for essential equipment [15][16] - The policy includes exemptions from import duties for equipment used in oil and gas exploration and a VAT rebate for qualifying imported natural gas [15][16] - These measures are expected to improve project internal rates of return and promote the development of deep-sea oil and gas fields [16] Group 5: Matrix Holdings - Matrix Holdings is positioned as a leading high-end interior design company, with a focus on space design and soft decoration [19] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in revenue and profit starting in 2025, with projected net profit growth of 72%-137% [19][20] - The introduction of an "AI+Design" platform is expected to enhance design efficiency and improve profit margins [20] Group 6: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology, a leader in the small battery sector, is transitioning towards high-tech fields, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing [21][22] - The company controls 46% of Nanfu Battery, which has shown consistent revenue growth, with plans to acquire the remaining shares [22] - Strategic investments in next-generation optical chips are expected to open new growth avenues for the company [23]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Tungsten Industry - As of February 13, tungsten concentrate prices reached 697,000 CNY per standard ton, with a weekly increase of 3.3% and a rise of 237,000 CNY (51%) compared to the end of 2025 [1] - The tungsten price has shown a strong upward trend since 2026, supported by long-term quotes from major tungsten companies, indicating a pattern of initial increase followed by stabilization [1] - International tungsten prices are rising due to supply chain shortages, with China being the source of 80% of global tungsten resources. Export controls and crackdowns on illegal mining in China have made overseas raw material procurement more difficult [1] - The current tungsten market faces significant supply-side challenges, with no clear signs of price peaks, providing solid support for the overall market [1] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 135,500 CNY per ton at the beginning of the week to 142,500 CNY per ton by Thursday, a weekly increase of 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices rose from 132,000 CNY per ton to 139,000 CNY per ton, also up by 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - The futures market showed strong performance, with main contract prices rising from a range of 135,000-141,000 CNY per ton to 146,000-152,400 CNY per ton [4] - Market transactions are primarily driven by sporadic pricing settlements and essential purchases, with overall inquiry and transaction volumes declining [5] - A weak supply-demand balance is expected to persist before and after the Spring Festival, with prices likely to stabilize [6] Antimony Industry - Increased market activity was noted before the Spring Festival, with antimony prices continuing to rise due to speculative demand [10] - A fire at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry has led to production halts, affecting over 2,000 tons of antimony ingot output [11] - Overall market demand remains relatively weak, but expectations for improved demand post-holiday are rising due to new export policies and improved trade conditions [11][12] - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover due to limited supply and expected export recovery [12] Tin Industry - The tin market is experiencing a weak overall trend, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and changes in the AI industry narrative [13] - Supply-side constraints are evident as many smelting companies plan maintenance shutdowns, leading to tighter raw material supplies [14] - Demand from downstream solder companies has diminished, with most enterprises halting production and showing low purchasing intent [14] - The market is expected to remain quiet due to the Spring Festival, with tin prices lacking clear direction [15] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices showed a slight rebound, but market changes remain limited due to tight upstream raw material supplies [17] - Trade and downstream inquiries have largely ceased, leading to a quiet market atmosphere [18] - As the Spring Festival approaches, many smelting plants are reducing operations, tightening available market supply [19] - Post-holiday, prices may rise again due to supply constraints and cost support from raw materials [22] Nickel Industry - Indonesia's nickel mining quota reduction policy for 2026 has cut the overall quota from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260-270 million tons, a reduction of nearly 30% [22] - Supply disruptions are exacerbated by seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, leading to a tight supply situation [22] - Downstream companies are optimistic about post-holiday market conditions, with some early stockpiling observed [23] Companies to Watch - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Xianglu Tungsten [2] - Lithium: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, Salt Lake Co. [9] - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous, Beijiete, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining [13] - Tin: Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiyang Silver Tin [16] - Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Tengyuan Cobalt [24]

【环球网财经综合报道】机构最新研报预计，2026将成为锂行业的现实拐点之年，由供给扰动与需求爆发共同推动。 东方证券发布研报认为，过去两年锂价格下行显著压缩了全球锂资源资本开支，核心锂企CAPEX已进入周期低谷水平；该机构测算2024— 2025年全球锂资源产能的增速仅为17.1%，明显低于此前几年高点；2026—2027年有效产能增速预计保持20%—25%，未来可供释放的增量相 对有限，供应压力陡然增长的可能性较小。此外，受政策等因素扰动，国内外部分存量与增量项目审批及建设节奏拉长，供给体系形成结构性 递延。 与此同时，风光建设延续高增、电网投资与AI相关基础设施建设带来储能需求爆发，行业对未来供需结构的预期正在改善；从中期维度测 算，东方证券预计2026年后储能占比将有望突破30%，成为仅次于动力电池的核心需求领域。随着市场认知从"现实宽松"转向"远期紧张"，锂 价中枢有望进入趋势性抬升阶段。 此前瑞银宣布上调锂价预测，最高上调幅度达74%，并预计2026年锂需求将增长14%，2027年增长16%，全球锂需求到2030年将翻倍至340万 吨。（闻辉） ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 市场价格方面，1月，国内碳酸锂价格震荡上涨。电池级碳酸锂价格从月初的119000元/吨上涨至月末的 152500元/吨，上涨28.15%；工业级碳酸锂价格从月初的118000元/吨上涨至月末的149500元/吨，上涨 26.69%；主力合约收盘价从月初的129980元/吨涨至月末的148200元/吨，上涨14.02%。 中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会发布2026年1月锂行业运行情况。1月，碳酸锂价格大幅上涨，市场交易 活跃，基差拉大。供应端，碳酸锂生产平稳，部分正极材料企业产线检修。需求端，国补延续提升新能 源车市场预期，锂电池出口退税下降提振一季度抢出口需求。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous metals market has been weak due to tightening liquidity and declining speculative sentiment, but there was a slight recovery in market sentiment starting from last Friday night, leading to a collective rebound in non-ferrous metals, with lithium carbonate experiencing a maximum daily increase of over 5% and an accompanying increase in capital positions [3][9] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, downstream inventory preparations for the Spring Festival are nearly complete, and some strategic stockpiling has occurred. If short-term prices remain strong, actual procurement may cool down, which could negatively impact prices [4][10] - Recent reports indicate that January shipping data from Chile saw a significant month-on-month increase, but this is attributed to early shipments due to the Spring Festival, making the volume unsustainable. Significant supply pressure in the domestic market may manifest after the holiday [4][10] - As domestic production is set to resume in March, the pressure will depend on whether demand can exceed expectations. If it only matches December levels, the market may shift from a surplus of over 6,000 tons in February to a tight balance or slight accumulation in March [4][10] - Weekly lithium carbonate social inventory decreased by 1,999 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, while other segments decreased by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 647 tons to 18,356 tons. A continued decline in inventory levels post-holiday may provide significant bullish support [4][10] - The market currently lacks more definitive bullish catalysts, and sentiment appears to be quite mixed, suggesting a focus on trading opportunities after volatility subsides [4][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

1月30日，天齐锂业（002466）股份有限公司(以下简称"天齐锂业")披露2025年业绩预告。作为锂行业 龙头企业，天齐锂业在经历了此前锂价下跌等多方面因素带来的压力后逐步迎来业绩回暖，预计2025年 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.69亿元至5.53亿元，扣非后净利润为2.4亿元至3.6亿元，同比均扭亏 为盈。 公告显示，天齐锂业2025年业绩变动的原因主要来自四个方面。尽管受到2025年锂产品市场波动的影 响，该公司的锂产品销售价格同比下降，但旗下锂精矿定价机制与锂化工产品销售定价机制此前存在的 时间周期错配影响已大幅减弱，随着国内新购锂精矿陆续入库及库存锂精矿的逐步消化，天齐锂业生产 成本中耗用的化学级锂精矿成本基本接近最新采购价格；报告期内确认的对重要联营公司 SociedadQuímicayMineradeChileS.A.(以下简称"SQM")的投资收益同比大幅增长；2025年澳元兑美元的 汇率变动导致该公司的汇兑收益金额同比增长；预计2025年计提的资产减值损失同比减少。 天齐锂业相关负责人日前在与投资者互动时表示，该公司正从"锂资源供应商"向"新材料解决方案提供 者"转型升级，在巩固碳酸锂 ...