张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 流动性改善支持港股补涨，关注创新药与互联网机会 ——港股市场策略周报（0825） 近期流动性叙事的改善，或足以支持港股的补涨。业绩方面，港股目前业绩预 喜率为 2022 年以来新高。展望后市，我们仍然对港股保持乐观态度，方向上建 议聚焦与 A 股存在差异化的行业，节奏上建议先创新药、再互联网，最后新消 费。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何—— 港股系列研究报告（1）》 2. 《港股市场流动性跟踪框架—— 港股系列研究报告（2）》 ❑ 港股观点更新：流动性叙事的改变，或足以支持港股补涨。近期 Hibor 利率 快速上行后逐步稳定、鲍威尔表态显著转鸽，内外流动性的变化均指向一个 结论：港股流动性趋紧的叙事已经得到了边际改善。我们认为，流动性叙事 的改善已经足 ...

Core Insights - In July, Hong Kong listed companies actively engaged in share buybacks, with a total buyback amount exceeding 10 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Buyback Activity - A total of 73 Hong Kong listed companies conducted share buybacks in July, repurchasing 808 million shares [1] - The total buyback amount reached 10.035 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Leading Companies - The top five companies by buyback amount were Tencent Holdings (3.503 billion HKD), AIA Group (2.704 billion HKD), HSBC Holdings (2.221 billion HKD), WuXi Biologics (597 million HKD), and Yum China (138 million HKD) [1] - These five companies accounted for over 90% of the total buyback amount in July [1] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The share buybacks were primarily concentrated in the sectors of internet technology, finance, healthcare, and non-essential consumer goods [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in share buybacks in 2023, indicating that companies are taking advantage of historically low valuations and improving their capital structures [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Trends - From January 1 to July 31, 2023, 212 Hong Kong-listed companies repurchased a total of 4.611 billion shares, amounting to HKD 104.7 billion [1]. - The healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors have the highest number of companies participating in buybacks, reflecting a broadening of market confidence [1]. - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with a total repurchase amount of HKD 40.043 billion, accounting for 38.25% of the total buyback value in the market [2]. Group 2: Tencent Holdings Buyback Details - Tencent has consistently increased its buyback amounts over the years, with HKD 25.99 billion in 2021, HKD 337.94 billion in 2022, and HKD 494.33 billion in 2023 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2023, Tencent repurchased 8.884 million shares, with an average daily buyback amount exceeding HKD 600 million [2][3]. - The monthly buyback amounts exceeded HKD 10 billion in five months, with the highest in June at HKD 20.834 billion [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's upcoming reform in June 2024 will allow companies to hold repurchased shares as treasury stock, which is expected to enhance buyback activity and efficiency [3]. - The total buyback amount for the second half of 2023 is projected to remain around HKD 100 billion, similar to the first half [3].

【导读】港交所：上半年总集资金额同比上升322%！5只新股齐上市首日均实现上涨 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月9日，恒生指数收跌1.06%，报23892.32点，恒生科技指数跌1.76%，恒生中国企业指 数跌1.28%。全日市场成交额为2339亿港元，较前一交易日的2132.89亿港元有所增加。南 向资金净买入额为92.56亿港元。 恒基地产跌8.64%，阿里巴巴跌3.83%，紫金矿业跌3.38%，领跌蓝筹。恒基地产大跌主要 是由于公司披露，拟发行本金总额为80亿港元的可换股债券。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 消歧跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 恒县地产 | 0012 | 25.900 c | -2.450 | -8.64% | 11.58亿 | 15.88% | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 9988 | 102.900 c | -4.100 | -3.83% | 139.51亿 | 26.98% | | 3 | 紫等处,不 | 2899 | 20.000 c | ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Guosen Securities Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on a dual-layer selection process combining fundamental and technical analysis to identify stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance[15][17] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Analyst Recommendation Pool**: Constructed using analyst events such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and research report titles exceeding expectations[17] 2. **Selection Criteria**: - Fundamental Dimension: Stocks with strong fundamental support - Technical Dimension: Stocks showing technical resonance 3. **Backtesting Period**: From January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with full exposure and transaction costs considered[17] **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong annualized returns and significant excess returns relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] - **Model Name**: Stable New High Stock Screening **Model Construction Idea**: Inspired by momentum and trend-following strategies, focusing on stocks that recently hit 250-day highs with stable price paths[22][24] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **250-Day New High Distance Calculation**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_{latest}}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - **Close_latest**: Latest closing price - **ts_max(Close, 250)**: Maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[24] 2. **Screening Criteria**: - Analyst Attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months - Relative Strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns within the sample pool - Price Stability: Comprehensive scoring based on price path smoothness and trend continuation metrics[25] **Model Evaluation**: Effective in identifying stocks with stable upward trends, particularly in sectors like healthcare and finance[24][25] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Guosen Securities Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.11% - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22 - **Tracking Error**: 14.55% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[21][17][19] - **Stable New High Stock Screening**: - **Sector Distribution**: - Healthcare: 15 stocks - Finance: 15 stocks - Technology: 7 stocks - Cyclical: 5 stocks - Consumer: 4 stocks[24][25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 250-Day New High Distance **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proximity of the latest closing price to the 250-day high, indicating momentum strength[24] **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_{latest}}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - **Close_latest**: Latest closing price - **ts_max(Close, 250)**: Maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[24] **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for identifying stocks with upward momentum[24] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day New High Distance**: - **Sector Distribution**: - Healthcare: 15 stocks - Finance: 15 stocks - Technology: 7 stocks - Cyclical: 5 stocks - Consumer: 4 stocks[24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated significantly in 2024, reaching a record high for the first half of the year, which has driven the Hong Kong market to outperform global indices [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Market Performance - Southbound capital has net inflows exceeding 730 billion HKD in the first half of 2024, marking the highest level for this period in history and nearing the total for the entire previous year [1]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of 2024, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. - The sectors attracting the most southbound capital include banking, telecommunications, energy, technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The top three sectors receiving southbound capital inflows in the first half of 2024 were non-essential consumer goods (approximately 213.4 billion HKD), financials (about 177 billion HKD), and healthcare (around 82.9 billion HKD) [2]. - Notable stock performances include Pop Mart, which surged by 199%, and the construction bank, which increased by 31% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The southbound capital's influence has led to a significant improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market, narrowing the liquidity gap with the A-share market [3]. - The AH premium index has reached a low of 126.91 points, indicating a shift in market valuation dynamics [3]. - Southbound capital is increasingly concentrated in small-cap and high-dividend stocks, with over 30% ownership in certain stocks [3]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - A survey indicated that 63% of institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks in 2025, primarily through the Stock Connect program [4]. - Hong Kong is the preferred market for overseas investments, accounting for 51% of the total overseas investment balance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is seen as a hub for innovative consumer upgrade targets and leading hard-tech companies, with valuations still at mid-to-low levels compared to global markets [5]. - There is an expectation for continued valuation improvement in the second half of 2024, driven by high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the deepening of the "H+A" listing channel between Hong Kong and mainland China, highlighting the potential for more companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to achieve dual listings in both markets as a result of recent policy changes [2][10]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The recent policy document released on June 10 aims to enhance the financial, technological, and data integration to support high-quality economic development, allowing companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2][5]. - The new regulations are expected to strengthen the synergy between the Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges, promoting a more integrated capital market and facilitating the dual listing of quality enterprises from the Greater Bay Area [7][10]. Group 2: Potential Companies for Dual Listing - Currently, there are 249 companies from the Greater Bay Area listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with only 27 achieving dual listings. The total number of companies in the region is 1,593, with a significant portion in new economy sectors [4][5]. - Among the 1,593 companies, 436 are expected to meet the financial standards for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's main board, while 910 could qualify for the growth enterprise market [5]. Group 3: Historical Performance of H+A Listings - Historical data shows that companies returning from Hong Kong to A-shares have generally performed well, with average price increases of 7.0% after one week, 18.6% after one month, and 19.9% after three months [9]. - The performance of these companies in the A-share market has outperformed both the A-share market and their Hong Kong counterparts, indicating strong investor interest and potential for future listings [9]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the new policies will create investment opportunities as more companies from the Greater Bay Area are expected to list on the A-share market, enhancing the quality and diversity of investment options available to domestic investors [10]. - The collaboration between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen exchanges is anticipated to foster a "Hong Kong incubation + mainland acceleration" model, benefiting both markets and attracting long-term capital [8][10].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major global markets since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both showing over 21% cumulative gains as of June 11, 2023 [1] - The net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 670 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record for the same period, significantly boosting the market's performance [1] - Nearly 80% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index have risen, with BYD leading the charge with over 60% growth [1] Sector Performance - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors have led the market, with gains of 50.54%, 36.41%, and 28.32% respectively [1] - The financial and discretionary consumer sectors have also recorded gains exceeding 22% [1] Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC highlight structural advantages in the Chinese macro and market environment, such as stable dividend returns and growth lines in new consumption, AI technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, making Hong Kong stocks more attractive compared to other markets [3] - Multiple brokerage firms maintain an optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rebound in valuations and earnings in the fourth quarter [3] - Predictions suggest that southbound capital inflows could reach between 200 billion to 300 billion HKD in the second half, with total annual inflows potentially exceeding 1 trillion HKD [3] Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on stable returns (like deposits, government bonds, and dividend assets) and growth returns (such as technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals) [4] - Huatai Securities identifies consumption and technology as key investment themes, favoring internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and hard tech sectors [4] - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is showing signs of recovery, with opportunities in the brokerage sector due to increased demand for cross-border wealth management [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the upcoming public offering of the Guangfa Hengsheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed ETF, which aims to raise up to 3 billion RMB and will be available for subscription from June 9 to June 20, 2025 [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index, which focuses on 30 pure technology companies listed in Hong Kong, covering key sectors such as software services, semiconductors, and professional retail [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index, including Xiaomi, Tencent, and Alibaba, account for over 76% of the index, indicating high concentration and growth potential [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index has recorded a 28.91% increase over the past three years, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index (+9.88%) and the Hang Seng Technology Index (+14.88%) [2] - Guangfa Securities notes that as the dividend sector adjusts, funds are moving away from defensive assets, which could benefit the technology sector with potential incremental capital inflow [3] - Key catalysts in the technology industry for June include the conclusion of the 232 investigation and significant developments in consumer electronics, AI domestic models, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to create at least pulse-level opportunities [3] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that each market cycle has a leading industry, with the current AI industry cycle potentially driving the Hong Kong stock market upward [4] - The fundamentals indicate high capital expenditure growth and the gathering of scarce assets in Hong Kong's technology sector, which is expected to benefit from the AI narrative and accelerate earnings release [4] - Despite potential disruptions from the trade environment, policy efforts are expected to drive fundamental recovery, with continued optimism for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable performance in May, with over 80 stocks reaching historical highs, primarily driven by consumer and financial stocks [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since May, the Hong Kong market has seen more than 80 stocks hit historical highs, with consumer stocks leading the way [2][4]. - The "new consumption trio" consisting of companies like Mixue Group, Pop Mart, and Lao Pu Gold has gained significant attention, with their stock prices outperforming the broader market [3][5]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Among the stocks reaching new highs, over 30 belong to the non-essential and essential consumer sectors, indicating a consumer-driven market rally [5][6]. - Financial stocks also performed well, with 18 stocks from various sub-sectors such as banking, insurance, and securities reaching new highs [6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Of the 80+ stocks that reached new highs, 66 reported positive year-on-year revenue growth for 2024, with several companies like Lao Pu Gold and Pop Mart showing revenue growth exceeding 100% [8]. - Notably, Lao Pu Gold achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion HKD, a 167.5% increase, while Pop Mart reported 13.04 billion HKD, marking a 106.9% growth [8]. Group 4: Volatility and Market Dynamics - Despite the positive performance, the stocks that reached new highs have begun to experience increased price volatility, as evidenced by significant drops in stock prices for Pop Mart and Mixue Group on May 28 [9].