11月24日，记者从国家税务总局获悉，最新增值税发票数据显示，2025年10月，我国新质生产力持续培 育壮大，高端制造、创新产业、数实融合三大领域均呈现稳健增长态势，为经济发展持续注入新活力。 创新产业加快发展。10月份，高技术产业销售收入同比增长13.6%，延续两位数较快增速。其中，高技 术服务业销售收入同比增长16.1%；高技术制造业销售收入同比增长10.1%，特别是随着"人工智能+"行 动加快落地，集成电路、工业机器人、无人机制造销售收入同比分别增长32.5%、41.7%和38.4%。 高端制造持续发力。10月份，装备制造业销售收入同比增长7.3%，今年以来持续高于制造业平均水 平，占制造业比重已近半。其中，计算机通信设备制造业、船舶及相关装置制造业、电池制造业销售收 入同比分别增长10.1%、24.4%和27.2%，展现较强发展势头。 数实融合不断突破。10月份，数字经济核心产业销售收入同比增长8.5%，全国企业采购数字技术金额 同比增长9.6%，反映数字产业化和产业数字化正持续推进。其中，数字产品服务业、数字技术应用业 销售收入同比分别增长10.2%和13.1%；数字消费拉动作用明显，数字内容与媒体 ...

经济日报北京11月24日讯(记者董碧娟)国家税务总局24日公布的最新增值税发票数据显示，今年10 月，我国新质生产力持续培育壮大，高端制造、创新产业、数实融合三大领域均呈现稳健增长态势，为 经济发展持续注入新活力。 在高端制造方面，装备制造业销售收入同比增长7.3%，今年以来持续高于制造业平均水平；在创 新产业方面，高技术产业销售收入同比增长13.6%；在数实融合方面，数字经济核心产业销售收入同比 增长8.5%。 ...

固收｜从"外汇占款到"资金中枢"央行"两难的变与不 变 20251114 摘要 中国出口顺差加速积累，部分归因于中美及中国与世界其他国家间的物 价差异，中国在全球通胀背景下保持低通胀，增强了出口竞争力，对股 票交易策略具有重要参考价值。 企业结售汇顺差显著增加，表明企业将美元转化为人民币资产，短期内 可能导致人民币升值压力。央行需权衡增加货币投放以满足市场需求， 否则人民币升值压力将进一步加大，影响货币政策。 人民币升值在经济转型中扮演重要角色，借鉴日韩经验，升值可能是中 国经济成功转型的指标。高技术行业受益，劳动密集型产业面临挑战， 同时促进内需，对产业结构调整产生影响。 当前企业结售汇行为显示出从囤积美元向增大结汇的转变，若反映企业 信心增强，可能预示长期趋势，对人民币走势及国内货币政策产生深远 影响，投资者需密切关注。 国际国内环境变化，美国降息美元走弱，国内资产回报率上升，企业更 倾向于持有人民币资产。央行需综合考虑这些因素，适应新的市场动态， 制定货币政策，平衡汇率与经济增长。 Q&A 近年来中国出口强势的原因是什么？对此有哪些不同的解读？ 中国出口强势的原因主要有两种解读。第一种观点认为，这得益于 ...

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from September and below the consensus expectation of 5.52%[3] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months[19] - Real estate investment from January to October fell by 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction area down 19.8%[24] Consumer Trends - Social retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, but was better than expected due to a high base last year[29] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in non-auto consumption[12] - Jewelry consumption surged by 37.6% year-on-year in October, highlighting significant price effects on retail sales growth[29] Investment Insights - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth in the manufacturing sector from January to October was 2.7%, while infrastructure investment fell by 0.1%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in private fixed asset investment reached 4.5% from January to October, indicating a weakening investment environment[19] - The government has pre-allocated 500 billion yuan in local government bonds to support infrastructure investment, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy stance[30] Policy Outlook - There is a potential for monetary policy easing in the short term, focusing on quantitative measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural monetary policy tools[30] - The emphasis on stabilizing growth suggests a reliance on domestic demand amid global economic uncertainties[30] Risks - Risks include a potential resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing complexity in international relations[30]

从需求端看，投资转负较为罕见，消费平稳、出口韧性态势延续。其一，居民消费仍是经济复苏的薄弱 环节，受收入与财富效应制约。尽管政府推出了以旧换新等刺激政策，对今年以来消费的边际回暖提供 支撑，但政策效果趋弱，受到两方面因素制约：一是居民收入增长放缓；二是财富效应减弱。其二，固 定资产投资首现负增长，民间投资明显收缩。今年一季度投资表现尚可，特别是基建投资增速达到10% 以上高水平，但4月以来，固定资产投资同比增速连续六个月放缓。投资已从过去拉动经济增长的"主力 军"转变为当前经济的"短板"，这对未来经济走势与政策发力的影响非常大。我们要重点关注民间投资 的下滑。其三，出口表现超预期成亮点，外部风险仍需警惕。出口成为2025年经济运行的重要亮点，全 年表现超预期，为宏观经济稳定提供关键支撑。当前政策层面高度重视出口领域，通过多项举措积极应 对外部挑战、巩固出口优势。未来仍坚持底线思维：若经济调整期内出口受逆全球化思潮蔓延、贸易摩 擦加剧等因素影响出现较大波动，将对整体经济形势形成显著冲击，因此对出口优势不可掉以轻心，需 持续强化出口竞争力，筑牢风险防线。 把科技创新作为驱动经济与保障安全的关键支撑 "十五五"时期 ...

复旦大学中国研究院副研究员刘典对《证券日报》记者表示，"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标之一 是科技自立自强水平大幅提高，重点领域关键核心技术快速突破，科技创新和产业创新深度融合。未来 十年将再造一个中国高技术产业的目标，意味着新兴产业与未来产业不再是附属产业，而是主导我国下 一个增长周期的核心引擎。预计"十五五"期间，相关政策层面有望发布未来产业的专项规划，形成"高 技术—高附加值—高安全性"的新产业（300832）体系。 刘典认为，科技创新有望从"攻关"走向"体系化治理"，关键在于从顶层规划到产业协同再到市场转化一 体推进，未来五年，"国家重大科技任务清单"将成为科技投资与国际竞争的核心工具。 中国式现代化要靠科技现代化作支撑。中国移动（600941）通信联合会教育与科学技术研究院执行院长 陈晓华对《证券日报》记者表示："在坚实的政策指引、强大的科研投入支撑以及明确的发展路径规划 下，未来五年有望迎来科技实力质的飞跃，这意味着中国将凭借自身科技力量，在全球产业格局中实现 从跟跑到领跑的跨越，构建起自主可控、安全高效的产业生态。这不仅是经济层面的增长引擎，更是国 家综合实力提升、国际竞争力增强的关键所在。" ...

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Taxation Administration indicates a 6.1% year-on-year increase in the amount spent by enterprises on research and development and technical services in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting a sustained increase in innovation efforts [1] Group 1: R&D and Technology Services - The sales revenue of the scientific and technical service industry, a key area for the integration and value conversion of technological elements, grew by 22.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, continuing its rapid growth trend [1] - Sales revenue in knowledge-intensive industries, characterized by high technological content, increased by 11.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Emerging Industries - High-tech industries and equipment manufacturing saw sales revenue growth of 15.2% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters [1] - The implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative has accelerated growth in emerging industries, with sales revenue for integrated circuit manufacturing, robotics manufacturing, and drone manufacturing increasing by 17%, 21.7%, and 69.8% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 3: Digital Economy - The sales revenue of core industries in the digital economy grew by 10.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1] - Within this sector, the digital product manufacturing and digital technology application industries experienced year-on-year growth of 11% and 14.5%, respectively, indicating rapid development in digital industrialization [1] - The amount spent by enterprises on digital technology increased by 10.6% year-on-year, reflecting an upgrade in industrial digitalization [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance and challenges of formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and strategic planning in response to national directives [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and will shape the future direction and performance targets of insurance companies [1][2] - The period from now until 2035 is critical for establishing a solid foundation for modernization, requiring proactive and strategic planning [3] Group 2: Key Themes from the National Guidelines - The guidelines emphasize high-quality development, with a focus on economic construction, innovation, and meeting the growing needs of the population [4][6] - The plan outlines six major principles for economic and social development, including the importance of high-quality growth and comprehensive reforms [6] Group 3: Focus on High Technology - The plan highlights the goal of creating a new high-tech industry in China over the next decade, indicating a strong emphasis on technological advancement [7][9] - It aims to foster emerging industries and future sectors, such as renewable energy and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to generate significant market opportunities [9][10] Group 4: Domestic Market Emphasis - The strategy prioritizes the domestic market as a key driver of economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer spending [11][12] - Efforts will be made to eliminate barriers to market access and improve the efficiency of the domestic economic cycle [12] Group 5: High-Level Opening Up - The plan calls for a shift from a "follower" to a "leader" in terms of international trade and investment, promoting a more proactive approach to global economic engagement [13][14] - It includes measures to enhance trade innovation and expand investment cooperation, particularly in high-standard free trade zones [14][15] Group 6: Social Welfare and Population Development - The guidelines advocate for a supportive environment for families and the elderly, aiming to improve social welfare and promote a high-quality population development strategy [16][17] - Key initiatives include enhancing childcare support, optimizing retirement policies, and developing the silver economy [17] Group 7: Agricultural Modernization - The plan emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, aiming to increase agricultural productivity and improve living conditions in rural communities [18][19] - It includes policies to support farmers' income and enhance the effectiveness of agricultural support measures [19] Group 8: Regional Coordination - The strategy focuses on optimizing regional economic layouts and promoting coordinated development across different areas of the country [20][21] - It highlights the importance of new urbanization and marine economy development as part of the overall growth strategy [21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic planning for the next 5 to 10 years, emphasizing high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key goals for China's economic and social development [2][6] - The "Five-Year Plan" introduces new concepts such as "original innovation" and outlines the importance of advanced manufacturing as a backbone of the economy [4][10] Economic Development Goals - The primary goal is high-quality development, addressing challenges like weak domestic demand and insufficient endogenous momentum [8] - The plan aims to significantly enhance economic strength, technological capability, national defense, comprehensive national power, and international influence by 2035 [5][6] Industrial Development Strategy - The "Three Transformations" (intelligent, green, and integrated) are highlighted as the future direction for industrial development, marking their first appearance in the Five-Year Plan [9][10] - The plan emphasizes the construction of "Five Strong Nations": manufacturing, quality, aerospace, transportation, and network [8][10] Technological Innovation - Technology is positioned as a priority, reflecting China's determination to overcome external pressures in high-tech fields like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [11][12] - The focus on original innovation is a new addition to the Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance China's capabilities in critical core technologies [13][15] Financial Sector Implications - Although the term "finance" is not mentioned in the report, the financial sector is crucial for supporting high-quality development and technological self-reliance [16][17] - The plan outlines the need for reforms in the financial sector to support strategic industries and enhance the stability of capital markets [17][18] Reform Initiatives - The plan anticipates significant breakthroughs in various reform areas, including technology, finance, state-owned enterprises, and land systems [19][20] - The effectiveness of these reforms will be critical in unlocking China's economic potential and realizing the goals set for 2035 [20]

Economic Growth and GDP - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, exceeding the annual target of 5.0%[4] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 2025[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is 3.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from Q2 2025[4] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in September increased by 6.5%, surpassing the consensus expectation of 5.23%[10] - The cumulative industrial added value growth for the mining industry from January to September is 5.8%, while manufacturing and high-tech industries show growth rates of 6.8% and 9.6%, respectively[12] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September, fixed asset investment fell by 0.5%, with private investment declining by 3.1%[25] - Real estate investment dropped by 13.9% during the same period, with new construction area down 18.9%[31] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[15] - Cumulative retail sales from January to September showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with significant declines in categories like petroleum products and beverages[20] Policy and Future Outlook - The government has introduced a fourth batch of "national subsidies" amounting to 69 billion yuan and has set a new local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan for 2026[1] - The macroeconomic policy adjustments will focus on achieving high-quality growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan and addressing external uncertainties[44]