1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][13] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: This week, the core driver of major assets lies in the resonance between the "anticipatory front - running" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. Key inflation and employment data are still lacking, causing the market to shift from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the rebound of the US dollar and lowering US Treasury yields, and continuously strengthening the financial attributes of precious metals. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of expectation differences after front - running [5] - Domestic macro: In October, the overall economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the pulling effect of incremental policies on the fundamentals has not been reflected yet. In the context of the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak capital in - place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The two incremental policies implemented in October are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in October was 6.2%, and the financial data generally met expectations [5] - Asset view: The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter has not changed much, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation among major assets in the fourth quarter. Long - positions should continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Price Changes - Various commodities have different price changes in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations. For example, lithium carbonate has an 8.97% daily increase, 17.85% monthly increase, 30.66% quarterly increase, and 23.48% annual increase, showing relatively strong performance [2] 3.2 Macro Summary - Overseas: The core driver of major assets is the resonance between "anticipatory front - running" and looser liquidity expectations. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have increased, but there are risks of expectation differences [5] - Domestic: The economic data in October continued the weak and stable trend. Incremental policies are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter, and financial data met expectations [5] - Asset allocation: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation in the fourth quarter, hold long - positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [5] 3.3 Sector and Variety Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [6] - Stock index options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to be weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel: The actual supply and demand are both weak, but the futures market is firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Iron ore: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the restocking demand needs to be released, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coke: The price increase over the weekend has been implemented, and the supply continues to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to recover continuously, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Silicon iron: The supply and demand are loose, and the price is under pressure, but the cost support is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Manganese silicon: The supply and demand situation remains loose, and there is no upward driving force for the price, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Glass: The supply and demand are still in excess, and inventory contradictions are accumulating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Soda ash: The demand for light soda ash is strong, and there is still cost support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Due to the tight US monetary liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still in excess, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Aluminum/zinc: The stock - futures linkage leads to an oscillatory upward trend of the aluminum price, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level, with short - term judgments of oscillatory rise and oscillation respectively [6] - Lead: Social inventories are slightly accumulating, and the lead price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Industrial silicon: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Lithium carbonate: The restart expectation is repeated, and it is necessary to be vigilant against large price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthened, and there are still geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - LPG: The refinery's external supply has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Asphalt: The situation between the US and Venezuela has cooled down, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillated lower this week, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Urea: Downstream buyers follow up at low prices, and the futures price is regarded as oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Ethylene glycol: The number of maintenance of existing plants has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. The price may fluctuate in a low - level range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PX: The expectation of aromatics for oil blending and BIS sentiment have fermented, and the efficiency and valuation remain firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - PTA: The news sentiment has significantly boosted, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the support below the processing fee has increased, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Short - fiber: There is some support from the raw material end, but the processing fee has room to be compressed under weak demand expectations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Bottle chips: There is raw material support, but the profit is in a stalemate due to the game between high inventory and weak demand, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Propylene: Downstream transactions have increased, and PL is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PP: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Plastic: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the support of the raw material end, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Styrene: The narrative of aromatics for oil blending has caused short - positions to reduce, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Caustic soda: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures market is cautiously weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - Fats and oils: It may oscillate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand situation of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Protein meal: The US soybean price fell overnight, and the two types of meal reduced positions and made up for the decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Corn/starch: They continue to oscillate at a high level, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Pigs: The supply pressure persists, and the pig price is running weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Natural rubber: It is waiting for a driving force and oscillating within a range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Synthetic rubber: The futures market has temporarily entered an oscillatory consolidation phase, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Cotton: There is a short - term risk of correction, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Sugar: The rebound momentum is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Pulp: The futures price is oscillating at a high level, and the long - dominated pattern remains unchanged, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Double - offset paper: Paper enterprises are holding up prices, and the spot price has stopped falling, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand weakness in the black building materials industry aligns with off - season characteristics. It is difficult to support the prices of sector varieties, but the downward pressure is also not significant. Without macro and policy disturbances in the short term, prices are expected to remain oscillating. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can be observed [1][5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The resumption of hot metal production this week was below expectations, mainly due to insufficient sinter supply in some Tangshan steel mills. Considering seasonal blast furnace maintenance, the increase in hot metal production is limited. Iron ore inventory is expected to show a slight increase, and the fundamentals lack upward price support. Given the existing macro and policy disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, supply increases while demand decreases, with no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the trend of finished products [1] Carbon Element - Coke: After three rounds of price hikes, steel mills are resistant to further increases due to profit pressure. However, coke has strong cost support and there is still procurement demand from steel mills, so the coke - steel game will continue, and coke prices are expected to oscillate. - Coking coal: Coking coal supply is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventories have dropped to recent lows. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and prices are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Short - term cost support is strong, but the market has a pessimistic supply - demand outlook, and there is insufficient upward price drive. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term cost trends are strong, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and there is insufficient upward price drive [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The expectation of supply disturbances has resurfaced, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. With medium and high downstream inventories, if sales remain weak, prices will return to an oscillating and weak trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices may continue to decline oscillating. - Soda ash: Recently, downstream buyers have started restocking as they think the price is appropriate. The cost of soda ash plants has increased, leading to a slight price increase. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: Spot market transactions are average, and sentiment has improved. Steel mill profits have shrunk again, and production has decreased significantly. In the off - season, demand has declined from its peak, and inventory levels are still higher than the same period last year. The futures market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policy and supply - side disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly. Overseas mine shipments are relatively stable, but the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly recently. The recovery of hot metal is restricted by factors such as sinter supply and blast furnace maintenance. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased while demand has decreased. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to follow finished products [9] - Coke: Supply has contracted again, and inventory has been continuously reduced. After three rounds of price hikes, there is a game between coke and steel, and prices are expected to oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Supply remains at a low level, and downstream procurement is good. Mine inventories have dropped to recent lows, and prices are expected to oscillate [12] - Glass: Supply disturbances are expected to intensify, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. With medium and high downstream inventories, if sales are weak, prices will return to an oscillating and weak trend. In the long - term, prices may decline oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Downstream restocking has started, and the cost of soda ash plants has increased. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the price center will decline [15] - Manganese silicon: Cost support is strengthening, but the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward price space is limited [16] - Ferrosilicon: Cost trends are strong, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and there is insufficient upward price drive [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly lower, with non-metallic building materials leading the decline [1] 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Equity Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: Current price 4507.2, daily decline of 1.21%, weekly decline of 1.85%, monthly decline of 2.40%, quarterly decline of 2.40%, and annual increase of 14.95% [2] - SSE 50 futures: Current price 2958.4, daily decline of 0.11%, weekly decline of 0.58%, monthly decline of 1.02%, quarterly decline of 1.02%, and annual increase of 10.47% [2] - CSI 500 futures: Current price 7010, daily decline of 3.06%, weekly decline of 3.52%, monthly decline of 3.85%, quarterly decline of 3.85%, and annual increase of 23.13% [2] - CSI 1000 futures: Current price 7145.8, daily decline of 2.19%, weekly decline of 2.65%, monthly decline of 3.52%, quarterly decline of 3.52%, and annual increase of 22.18% [2] 2.2 Bond Futures - 2-year treasury bond futures: Current price 102.38, daily increase of 0.01%, weekly increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.01%, quarterly increase of 0.01%, and annual decline of 0.57% [2] - 5-year treasury bond futures: Current price 105.78, daily increase of 0.09%, weekly increase of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.14%, quarterly increase of 0.14%, and annual decline of 0.72% [2] - 10-year treasury bond futures: Current price 108.17, daily increase of 0.10%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.30%, quarterly increase of 0.30%, and annual decline of 0.69% [2] - 30-year treasury bond futures: Current price 114.76, daily increase of 0.28%, weekly increase of 0.69%, monthly increase of 0.76%, quarterly increase of 0.76%, and annual decline of 3.43% [2] 2.3 Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Current price 99.26, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.44%, monthly increase of 1.47%, quarterly increase of 1.47%, and annual decline of 8.50% [2] - EUR/USD: Current price 1.157, daily unchanged, weekly decline of 53 pips, monthly decline of 164 pips, quarterly decline of 164 pips, and annual increase of 1217 pips [2] - USD/JPY: Current price 152.31, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.76%, monthly increase of 2.96%, quarterly increase of 2.96%, and annual decline of 3.11% [2] - USD mid-price: Current price 7.1021, daily increase of 14 pips, weekly decline of 27 pips, monthly decline of 34 pips, quarterly decline of 34 pips, and annual decline of 863 pips [2] 2.4 Interest Rates - 7-day interbank pledged repo rate: Current rate 1.46%, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 9 bp, monthly increase of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 1 bp, and annual decline of 29 bp [2] - 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield: Current rate 1.84%, daily increase of 1.8 bp, weekly decline of 0.8 bp, monthly decline of 2.2 bp, quarterly decline of 2.2 bp, and annual increase of 0.2 bp [2] - 10Y US treasury bond yield: Current rate 4.05%, daily decline of 9 bp, weekly unchanged, monthly increase of 0.01 bp, quarterly decline of 11 bp, and annual decline of 50 bp [2] - US 10Y-2Y yield spread: Current spread 0.53%, daily decline of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 0.03 bp, quarterly decline of 3 bp, and annual increase of 20 bp [2] - 10Y breakeven inflation rate: Current rate 2.3%, daily decline of 4 bp, monthly unchanged, quarterly decline of 0.05 bp, quarterly decline of 6 bp, and annual decline of 1 bp [2] 2.5 Metals - Gold: Current price 938.98, daily increase of 1.23%, monthly increase of 7.39%, quarterly increase of 7.39%, and annual increase of 52.04% [2] - Silver: Current price 11533, daily increase of 0.02%, monthly increase of 5.63%, quarterly increase of 5.63%, and annual increase of 54.39% [2] - Copper: Current price 84410, daily decline of 0.83%, monthly increase of 1.56%, quarterly increase of 1.56%, and annual increase of 14.42% [2] - Aluminum: Current price 20860, daily decline of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.87%, quarterly increase of 0.87%, and annual increase of 5.46% [2] - Alumina: Current price 2805, daily decline of 0.53%, monthly decline of 2.20%, quarterly decline of 2.20%, and annual decline of 41.53% [2] - Zinc: Current price 22220, daily decline of 0.16%, monthly increase of 1.81%, quarterly increase of 1.81%, and annual decline of 12.73% [2] - Lead: Current price 120830, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly decline of 0.06%, quarterly decline of 0.06%, and annual decline of 3.14% [2] - Nickel: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Stainless steel: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Tin: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Lithium carbonate: Current price 72680, daily increase of 0.55%, monthly decline of 0.16%, quarterly decline of 0.16%, and annual decline of 5.73% [2] - Industrial silicon: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Rebar: Current price 3061, daily decline of 0.71%, monthly decline of 0.36%, quarterly decline of 0.36%, and annual decline of 7.49% [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Current price 3241, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 0.37%, quarterly decline of 0.37%, and annual decline of 5.18% [2] - Iron ore: Current price 782, daily decline of 2.80%, monthly increase of 0.19%, quarterly increase of 0.19%, and annual increase of 0.39% [2] - Coke: Current price 1654.5, daily increase of 0.73%, monthly increase of 1.94%, quarterly increase of 1.84%, and annual decline of 8.69% [2] - Coking coal: Current price 1153.5, daily increase of 0.65%, monthly increase of 2.44%, quarterly increase of 2.44%, and annual decline of 0.60% [2] - Ferrosilicon: Current price 5378, daily decline of 0.52%, monthly decline of 2.11%, quarterly decline of 2.11%, and annual decline of 14.03% [2] - Manganese silicon: Current price 5738, daily decline of 0.14%, monthly decline of 0.35%, quarterly decline of 0.35%, and annual decline of 5.78% [2] - Glass: Current price 1138, daily decline of 3.48%, monthly decline of 5.95%, quarterly decline of 5.95%, and annual decline of 14.24% [2] - Soda ash: Current price 1234, daily decline of 1.04%, monthly decline of 1.67%, quarterly decline of 1.67%, and annual decline of 13.89% [2] 2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Current price 448.6, daily decline of 1.12%, monthly decline of 6.48%, quarterly decline of 6.48%, and annual decline of 19.88% [2] - Fuel oil: Current price 2700, daily decline of 1.35%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 5.82%, and annual decline of 18.82% [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Current price 3203, daily decline of 0.90%, monthly decline of 6.13%, quarterly decline of 6.13%, and annual decline of 20.02% [2] - Asphalt: Current price 3290, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly decline of 3.91%, quarterly decline of 3.91%, and annual decline of 10.82% [2] - Methanol: Current price 2274, daily decline of 2.90%, monthly decline of 2.32%, quarterly decline of 2.32%, and annual decline of 15.87% [2] - PX: Current price 6338, daily decline of 1.43%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.35% [2] - PTA: Current price 4440, daily decline of 1.55%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.24% [2] - Urea: Current price 1597, daily decline of 0.81%, monthly decline of 4.37%, quarterly decline of 4.37%, and annual decline of 6.44% [2] - Short fiber: Current price 6060, daily decline of 1.17%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 2.82%, and annual decline of 11.22% [2] - Styrene: Current price 6544, daily decline of 2.18%, monthly decline of 4.26%, quarterly decline of 4.26%, and annual decline of 19.19% [2] - Ethylene glycol: Current price 4061, daily decline of 1.22%, monthly decline of 3.47%, quarterly decline of 3.47%, and annual decline of 16.20% [2] - PP: Current price 6602, daily decline of 1.36%, monthly decline of 3.65%, quarterly decline of 3.65%, and annual decline of 11.70% [2] - PVC: Current price 4692, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 3.04%, quarterly decline of 3.04%, and annual decline of 11.30% [2] - Caustic soda: Current price 2428, daily decline of 1.46%, monthly decline of 4.07%, quarterly decline of 4.07%, and annual decline of 16.48% [2] - Rubber: Current price 14845, daily decline of 0.64%, monthly decline of 1.23%, quarterly decline of 1.23%, and annual decline of 16.69% [2] - 20 rubber: Current price 106611, daily decline of 0.42%, monthly decline of 0.91%, quarterly decline of 0.91%, and annual decline of 19.61% [2] - Pulp: Current price 4846, daily increase of 0.08%, monthly increase of 0.25%, quarterly increase of 0.25%, and annual decline of 18.47% [2] 2.7 Agriculture - Soybean meal: Current price 2902, daily decline of 1.02%, monthly decline of 0.89%, quarterly decline of 0.89%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Soybean oil: Current price 8240, daily decline of 0.34%, monthly increase of 1.23%, quarterly increase of 1.23%, and annual increase of 6.85% [2] - Palm oil: Current price 9330, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly increase of 1.11%, quarterly increase of 1.11%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Rapeseed oil: Current price 8664, daily decline of 0.63%, monthly decline of 0.85%, quarterly decline of 0.85%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Rapeseed meal: Current price 2348, daily decline of 1.84%, monthly decline of 3.02%, quarterly decline of 3.02%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Cotton: Current price 13265, daily decline of 0.26%, monthly increase of 0.38%, quarterly increase of 0.38%, and annual decline of 1.70% [2] - Sugar: Current price 5397, daily decline of 1.33%, monthly decline of 1.75%, quarterly decline of 1.75%, and annual decline of 9.46% [2] - Live pigs: Current price 11450, daily increase of 2.92%, monthly decline of 7.32%, quarterly decline of 7.32%, and annual decline of 10.55% [2] - Eggs: Current price 2852, daily increase of 1.57%, monthly decline of 6.12%, quarterly decline of 6.12%, and annual decline of 15.62% [2] - Red dates: Current price 11110, daily decline of 0.18%, monthly increase of 2.68%, quarterly increase of 2.68%, and annual increase of 20.63% [2] - Apples: Current price 8664, daily increase of 0.30%, monthly increase of 0.55%, quarterly increase of 0.55%, and annual increase of 22.37% [2] - Peanuts: Current price 7864, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly increase of 1.29%, quarterly increase of 1.29%, and annual decline of 0.81% [2] - Corn: Current price 2093, daily increase of 0.05%, monthly decline of 2.33%, quarterly decline of 2.33%, and annual decline of 6.10% [2] 3. Macro Analysis 3.1 Overseas Macro - Focus on new tariff threats from Trump and marginal changes in the US government shutdown [5] - There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October [5] - If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will weaken the "bad news is good news" logic and push up the recession risk [5] 3.2 Domestic Macro - China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies [5] - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariff remarks by Trump on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real demand for steel is difficult to reverse. It is necessary to focus on the policy intensity and direction before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3]. - The price of iron ore fluctuates weakly. Although the short - term hot metal output is strong, the demand contradiction is mainly in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, the price of iron ore may be adjusted accordingly. The overall terminal demand is weak, and there are continuous macro - disturbances [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do long may be higher than short - selling. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session. The key time node may be around the Fourth Plenary Session in mid - October [8]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term. After the southwest region enters the dry season, the supply pressure will be reduced, and the cost support will be enhanced. The price of silicon materials is in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. - The glass market is weak. The demand is less than expected, and the inventory is increasing. The soda ash market is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7008 tons to 273365 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 38714 hands to 1.991462 million hands. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3241 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 594 tons to 29778 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 29205 hands to 1.451729 million hands. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The new round of tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment, but the direct impact on steel was limited. The real demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. In the short - term, steel prices may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the overall trend may not change under the loose macro - environment. It is necessary to focus on the policy before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80% (- 22.50). The positions increased by 14460 hands to 499800 hands, and the weighted positions were 832000 hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.67% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel products during the holiday was not low, and the destocking after the holiday was under test. The price of iron ore fluctuated weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5738 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the main contract. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed at 5378 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 272 yuan/ton over the main contract [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, but the port inventory of manganese ore was low, and the price was relatively strong. Ferrosilicon also lacked obvious contradictions. For the black sector, it was considered that finding callback positions to do long was more cost - effective. The price may first decline and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8520 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (- 285). The weighted positions increased by 13354 hands to 442719 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 780 yuan/ton and 380 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 49990 yuan/ton, up 2.56% (+ 1250). The weighted positions increased by 7164 hands to 253779 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2760 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to reduced supply pressure and enhanced cost support in the dry season. The price of silicon materials was in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1138 yuan/ton, down 3.48% (- 41). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+ 5.84%) to 6282.4 million cases. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 1.04% (- 13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%) to 165.98 million tons [17][19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market was weak. The demand of downstream processing enterprises was less than expected, and the inventory was increasing. The soda ash market was expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term indexes face adjustment pressure due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - position strategy on dips [3]. - In the bond market, the economic data in August continued to slow down, and the "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level. However, the subsequent export - rush effect may weaken, and exports may face pressure. With the central bank maintaining a loose stance on funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but the short - term trend may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with the bond market expected to oscillate and recover [6]. - For precious metals, the current weakening of the US economic data and the Fed's "risk - management" rate cut have alleviated the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver. The market's expectation of a rate cut will increase with the appointment of a new Fed chairman. A long - position strategy is recommended, focusing on the price increase opportunity of silver [8]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, the Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, which cools down the market sentiment. However, due to the traditional peak season for downstream industries and certain disturbances in overseas mines, the prices of some non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate [11]. - In the steel market, the overall commodity market atmosphere is weak, and the prices of steel products continue to oscillate and decline. The Fed's interest rate cut has a limited impact on steel demand in the short term, but may drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the long term. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [33]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of some products such as rubber and crude oil have declined. For rubber, the supply - side advantage has decreased, and the short - term trend is weak, while a long - position strategy is maintained in the medium - term. For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the fundamentals are still good, and a long - position strategy is recommended [50][55]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of some products such as pigs and eggs are weak. For pigs, the supply in September is expected to be abundant, but there are potential supporting factors, and the spot price may fluctuate within a narrow range. For eggs, the supply is still large, but the pressure may decrease marginally, and short - term long - positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after a decline [76][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the TikTok issue; NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel; the movie "731" was released globally, breaking the box - office record; Shiyun Circuit's new PCB products are expected to be put into production in mid - 2026 and may supply Tesla in the future. The basis ratios of stock index futures were also provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence, and short - term indexes face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and the central bank will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 487 billion yuan on Thursday, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan [4][5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data in August continued to slow down, and exports may face pressure. With the central bank maintaining a loose stance on funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but the short - term trend may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with the bond market expected to oscillate and recover [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver declined. The US economic data was resilient, and the US dollar index was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's "risk - management" rate cut alleviated the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market's expectation of a rate cut will increase with the appointment of a new Fed chairman. A long - position strategy is recommended, focusing on the price increase opportunity of silver. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are 818 - 850 yuan/gram and 9695 - 10500 yuan/kilogram respectively [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper prices declined, and SHFE copper was relatively resistant. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories declined [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and the short - term copper price may oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum prices increased, and SHFE aluminum prices decreased. The position of SHFE aluminum decreased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's statement was less dovish than expected, but the downstream demand is in the traditional peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to be strongly supported, with attention paid to the support level of 20,700 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc prices declined, and LME zinc prices also declined. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decline [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window of zinc ore is closed, and the short - term zinc price is expected to be weak [15]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead prices increased, and LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is improving. The short - term lead price is expected to be strong [16]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost of nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron is expected to increase [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long - term, the nickel price is expected to be supported. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended, with the reference operating ranges for SHFE nickel and LME nickel being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton respectively [18][19]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices oscillated and declined. The supply of tin decreased significantly, and the demand increased marginally [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot price of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price declined. The domestic production of carbonate lithium reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's statement was lower than expected, but the supply and demand in the lithium - battery peak season are both strong, and the bottom support of carbonate lithium has increased. The lithium price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to industry information and market sentiment [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index declined, and the trading volume decreased. The domestic spot price of alumina decreased, and the import window opened [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price of alumina ore is supported, but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting industry is difficult to change in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, with the reference operating range for the main domestic contract being 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the social inventory decreased. The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the raw material price was also stable [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market is under pressure, and the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of the AD2511 contract declined, and the trading volume increased. The domestic average price of ADC12 decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With the support of cost and increased market activity, the short - term price is expected to remain high [30][31]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. The social inventory of rebar decreased, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity market atmosphere is weak, and the steel price is expected to decline if demand cannot be effectively restored. The Fed's interest rate cut has a limited impact on steel demand in the short term, but may drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the long term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron - ore futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The overseas iron - ore shipment increased, and the domestic port inventory decreased slightly [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass futures price declined, and the soda - ash futures price also declined. The social inventory of glass decreased, and the social inventory of soda ash also decreased [37][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to oscillate, and the soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined. The spot price of manganese silicon was stable, and the spot price of ferrosilicon was also stable [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The price of industrial silicon declined, and the price of polysilicon also declined. The production of industrial silicon increased, and the production of polysilicon was close to the same - period high [44][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to industry capacity - reduction progress. The price of polysilicon is affected by policy and sentiment, and attention should be paid to capacity integration and downstream price - passing progress [45][48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices declined, and the supply - side advantage decreased. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly [50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A long - position strategy is maintained in the medium - term, but a wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term due to the weak trend [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude - oil futures price declined, and the prices of related refined - oil products also declined [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, but the fundamentals are still good, and a long - position strategy is recommended [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price declined, and the inventory increased. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high inventory puts pressure on the methanol price, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price declined, and the inventory increased. The supply - side operating rate increased, and the demand - side performance was average [57][58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy or a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and a long - position strategy on dips for the pure - benzene US - South Korea spread is recommended [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The cost - side price was stable, and the demand - side operating rate increased [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound due to the "anti - involution" sentiment [62][63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene - glycol futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The supply - side operating rate was high, and the demand - side operating rate decreased slightly [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and a short - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak - expectation not being realized [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA futures price declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply - side operating rate was stable, and the demand - side operating rate decreased slightly [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA market is expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [67]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The p - xylene futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The operating rate of p - xylene increased, and the operating rate of PTA was stable [68][69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased slightly [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is expected to oscillate and increase in the long - term, with attention paid to the cost - side support and seasonal demand [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply - side operating rate increased, and the demand - side operating rate increased slightly [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price declined, and the demand was average. Some farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply in September is expected to be abundant, but there are potential supporting factors. A strategy of looking for short - term long - positions after a decline and short - positions after a rebound is recommended, and a reverse - spread strategy is maintained for the far - month contracts [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The domestic egg price declined in some areas, and the supply was sufficient. The downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of eggs is still large, but the pressure may decrease marginally. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short - term long - positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after a decline [78]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The US soybean price declined slightly, and the domestic soybean - meal price also declined. The domestic soybean - meal trading volume was good, and the inventory was at a high level [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to be weak, and the domestic soybean - meal market is expected to enter the de - inventory stage in September. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended, waiting for a driving factor to determine the direction [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 10 days of September and increased in the first 15 days. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 10 days of September. The prices of domestic oils and fats declined [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips after a decline is recommended [83]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined, and the domestic sugar import volume increased in August. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the second half of August [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but a short - term rebound is possible. A cautious trading strategy is recommended [85]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined, and the domestic cotton import volume decreased in August. The spot price of cotton increased slightly [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of positive and negative factors [87].

Summary of Market Transactions on September 12, 2025 Core Insights - The overall market transactions showed a mixed performance across different sectors, with significant variations in both transaction volumes and holding amounts [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index sector transactions amounted to 860.73 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15.38% compared to the previous period [1]. - The holding amount in this sector was 1381.94 billion, down by 1.89% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 61.92% [1]. Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bonds transactions totaled 458.80 billion, a decline of 20.23% [1]. - The holding amount reached 723.76 billion, decreasing by 1.75% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 64.11% [1]. Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions were recorded at 358.52 billion, an increase of 27.67% [1]. - The holding amount in this sector was 523.79 billion, up by 3.58% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 74.07% [1]. Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions amounted to 477.79 billion, showing a significant increase of 34.69% [1]. - The holding amount was 504.51 billion, with a slight increase of 2.04% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 131.45% [1]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions reached 389.62 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.51% [1]. - The holding amount was 446.53 billion, with a marginal increase of 0.44% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 67.68% [1]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions totaled 278.19 billion, down by 4.69% [1]. - The holding amount was 553.24 billion, showing a negligible change of 0.02% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 42.87% [1]. Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions amounted to 283.25 billion, an increase of 5.40% [1]. - The holding amount was 372.92 billion, down by 1.70% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 77.39% [1].