1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The Fed's dovish stance, combined with a downward trend in the US economy and inflation, has led to increased enthusiasm for soft - landing trades. Assets such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and US equities have support. The nomination of the new Fed chair may cause a phase of smooth trading in liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference is moderately positive. In 2026, macro - policies are expected to maintain a similar intensity to 2025, balancing long - term structural adjustment and short - term goals. External trade risks may influence policy rhythm [5]. - Asset Outlook: The current macro - environment favors precious metals and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes. Domestic equities are conservative during the year - end and policy - free period [5]. Summary by Directory Financial - Stock Index Futures: A large premium implies positive views, and the short - term trend is upward, but attention should be paid to liquidity deterioration [6]. - Stock Index Options: Adopt an offensive strategy when the price is low, and the short - term trend is upward, with the risk of continuous market liquidity shrinkage [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The adjustment pattern may continue in the short term, and the short - term trend is downward, affected by factors such as less - than - expected monetary easing [6]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Supported by economic downturn risks and interest - rate cut expectations, maintain a long - position strategy, and the short - term trend is upward, with attention to policy - expectation changes [6]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: With the price adjustment and news of short - term sailings suspension, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by geopolitical factors and spot freight rates [6]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Demand is picking up, but supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, with attention to special - bond issuance and steel exports [6]. - Iron Ore: Iron - water production is accelerating, and inventory - accumulation pressure is rising again. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by overseas mine production and domestic iron - water production [6]. - Coke: There is still an expectation of price increase, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coking costs [6]. - Coking Coal: Supported by the continuous increase in iron - water production, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coal - mine safety inspections [6]. - Ferrosilicon: With active resumption of production in Ningxia and rising cost support, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by raw - material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Manganese Silicon: Factory resumption is slow, and supply - demand has improved. The short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by cost prices and external quotes [6]. - Glass: With the decline in macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by spot sales [6]. - Soda Ash: Supply - demand pressure is high, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by soda - ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Driven by policies, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by supply disruptions and domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: With more ore - supply disruptions, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by ore - production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production [6]. - Aluminum: Driven by domestic macro - expectations, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and supply disruptions [6]. - Zinc: With the decline in macro - optimism, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [6]. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by exports and waste - battery prices [6]. - Nickel: Driven by domestic macro - factors, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes [6]. - Stainless Steel: Boosted by macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [6]. - Tin: With tight supply - demand and positive sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by demand recovery and supply increase [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Under the pressure of warehouse - receipt cancellation, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: With supply contraction at the end of the peak season, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by demand and supply disruptions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressure, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [8]. - LPG: There is a short - term differentiation between the domestic and overseas markets, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - Asphalt: The price is under pressure at 3000, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High Asian floating - storage offsets the decline in Russian fuel - oil exports, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by geopolitics and crude - oil prices [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Follows the weak trend of crude oil, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by crude - oil prices [8]. - Methanol: With sufficient supply inland and along the coast, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - energy factors and overseas production suspension [8]. - Urea: The progress of off - season storage has slowed down, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal prices and inventory de - stocking [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Market pessimism leads to inventory accumulation, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal and oil prices and port inventory [8]. - PX: Supported by tight PTA spot supply, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: Spot circulation is tight, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and downstream polyester load [8]. - Short - Fiber: Affected by ethylene - glycol costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by downstream yarn - mill purchasing and seasonality [8]. - Bottle Chip: Affected by the differentiation of upstream polyester raw - material costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - cut targets and new - device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: With a strong spot market and expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic macro - factors [8]. - PP: Boosted by expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Plastic: With limited raw - material and maintenance support, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Styrene: Affected by repeated maintenance news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: With limited production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic Soda: Without upstream production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by market sentiment and demand [8]. Agriculture - Natural Rubber: The price fluctuates widely without strong drivers, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - area weather and raw - material prices [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The short - term trend is volatile, affected by production and demand [8]. - Sugar: There is pressure at the upper level and short - term support at the lower level, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by imports and Northern - Hemisphere production [8]. - Pulp: Driven by positive news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US - dollar quotes [8]. - Offset Paper: There are no obvious contradictions, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - sales and paper - mill operations [8]. - Log: With a low valuation, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a strong trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make rebounds rather than continue to short. The macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3134 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.771%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 48,275 tons, a net increase of 10,356 tons. The main contract's open interest was 882,576 lots, a net decrease of 89,702 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3327 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.757%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 704,586 lots, a net decrease of 80,806 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy View - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral overall performance. The production of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand slightly declined, and the inventory only slightly decreased. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.88% (+7.00). The open interest changed by - 14,304 lots to 376,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 930,100 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.41%. [4] Strategy View - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. The shipment from Australia decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment from Brazil increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries slightly declined. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance increased significantly, and the number of blast furnaces that could be restarted in a short time was low. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to the lowest level in the same period in the past three years, with the proportion of profitable steel mills at 35%. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was slightly consumed. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 1st, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 2.00% at 5724 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.41% at 5466 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][9] Strategy View - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak, and the ferroalloy is also affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on the market sentiment is still worth looking forward to. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make rebounds. [10][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted open interest increased by 1079 lots to 382,530 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 205 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 145 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.27% (+1280). The weighted open interest increased by 12,372 lots to 273,242 lots. [13][15] Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The weekly output continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable, and the export decreased. The cost support was stable. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the production capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the main contract is at a high premium. [14][17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton, down 1.61% (-17). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1120 yuan, up 30 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million boxes, a decrease of 941,000 boxes (-1.49%). The soda ash main contract closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-1). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, up 24 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (-1.49%). [19][21] Strategy View - For glass, the supply decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines, and the market sentiment briefly improved, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market was still weak. The industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. For soda ash, the industry's operating load slightly increased, the inventory slightly decreased, and the price remained stable. It is recommended to be bearish before the demand significantly improves. [20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][13] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: This week, the core driver of major assets lies in the resonance between the "anticipatory front - running" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. Key inflation and employment data are still lacking, causing the market to shift from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the rebound of the US dollar and lowering US Treasury yields, and continuously strengthening the financial attributes of precious metals. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of expectation differences after front - running [5] - Domestic macro: In October, the overall economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the pulling effect of incremental policies on the fundamentals has not been reflected yet. In the context of the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak capital in - place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The two incremental policies implemented in October are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in October was 6.2%, and the financial data generally met expectations [5] - Asset view: The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter has not changed much, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation among major assets in the fourth quarter. Long - positions should continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Price Changes - Various commodities have different price changes in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations. For example, lithium carbonate has an 8.97% daily increase, 17.85% monthly increase, 30.66% quarterly increase, and 23.48% annual increase, showing relatively strong performance [2] 3.2 Macro Summary - Overseas: The core driver of major assets is the resonance between "anticipatory front - running" and looser liquidity expectations. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have increased, but there are risks of expectation differences [5] - Domestic: The economic data in October continued the weak and stable trend. Incremental policies are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter, and financial data met expectations [5] - Asset allocation: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation in the fourth quarter, hold long - positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [5] 3.3 Sector and Variety Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [6] - Stock index options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to be weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel: The actual supply and demand are both weak, but the futures market is firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Iron ore: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the restocking demand needs to be released, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coke: The price increase over the weekend has been implemented, and the supply continues to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to recover continuously, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Silicon iron: The supply and demand are loose, and the price is under pressure, but the cost support is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Manganese silicon: The supply and demand situation remains loose, and there is no upward driving force for the price, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Glass: The supply and demand are still in excess, and inventory contradictions are accumulating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Soda ash: The demand for light soda ash is strong, and there is still cost support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Due to the tight US monetary liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still in excess, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Aluminum/zinc: The stock - futures linkage leads to an oscillatory upward trend of the aluminum price, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level, with short - term judgments of oscillatory rise and oscillation respectively [6] - Lead: Social inventories are slightly accumulating, and the lead price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Industrial silicon: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Lithium carbonate: The restart expectation is repeated, and it is necessary to be vigilant against large price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthened, and there are still geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - LPG: The refinery's external supply has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Asphalt: The situation between the US and Venezuela has cooled down, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillated lower this week, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Urea: Downstream buyers follow up at low prices, and the futures price is regarded as oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Ethylene glycol: The number of maintenance of existing plants has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. The price may fluctuate in a low - level range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PX: The expectation of aromatics for oil blending and BIS sentiment have fermented, and the efficiency and valuation remain firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - PTA: The news sentiment has significantly boosted, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the support below the processing fee has increased, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Short - fiber: There is some support from the raw material end, but the processing fee has room to be compressed under weak demand expectations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Bottle chips: There is raw material support, but the profit is in a stalemate due to the game between high inventory and weak demand, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Propylene: Downstream transactions have increased, and PL is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PP: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Plastic: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the support of the raw material end, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Styrene: The narrative of aromatics for oil blending has caused short - positions to reduce, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Caustic soda: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures market is cautiously weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - Fats and oils: It may oscillate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand situation of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Protein meal: The US soybean price fell overnight, and the two types of meal reduced positions and made up for the decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Corn/starch: They continue to oscillate at a high level, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Pigs: The supply pressure persists, and the pig price is running weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Natural rubber: It is waiting for a driving force and oscillating within a range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Synthetic rubber: The futures market has temporarily entered an oscillatory consolidation phase, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Cotton: There is a short - term risk of correction, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Sugar: The rebound momentum is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Pulp: The futures price is oscillating at a high level, and the long - dominated pattern remains unchanged, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Double - offset paper: Paper enterprises are holding up prices, and the spot price has stopped falling, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand weakness in the black building materials industry aligns with off - season characteristics. It is difficult to support the prices of sector varieties, but the downward pressure is also not significant. Without macro and policy disturbances in the short term, prices are expected to remain oscillating. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can be observed [1][5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The resumption of hot metal production this week was below expectations, mainly due to insufficient sinter supply in some Tangshan steel mills. Considering seasonal blast furnace maintenance, the increase in hot metal production is limited. Iron ore inventory is expected to show a slight increase, and the fundamentals lack upward price support. Given the existing macro and policy disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, supply increases while demand decreases, with no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the trend of finished products [1] Carbon Element - Coke: After three rounds of price hikes, steel mills are resistant to further increases due to profit pressure. However, coke has strong cost support and there is still procurement demand from steel mills, so the coke - steel game will continue, and coke prices are expected to oscillate. - Coking coal: Coking coal supply is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventories have dropped to recent lows. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and prices are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Short - term cost support is strong, but the market has a pessimistic supply - demand outlook, and there is insufficient upward price drive. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term cost trends are strong, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and there is insufficient upward price drive [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The expectation of supply disturbances has resurfaced, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. With medium and high downstream inventories, if sales remain weak, prices will return to an oscillating and weak trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices may continue to decline oscillating. - Soda ash: Recently, downstream buyers have started restocking as they think the price is appropriate. The cost of soda ash plants has increased, leading to a slight price increase. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: Spot market transactions are average, and sentiment has improved. Steel mill profits have shrunk again, and production has decreased significantly. In the off - season, demand has declined from its peak, and inventory levels are still higher than the same period last year. The futures market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policy and supply - side disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly. Overseas mine shipments are relatively stable, but the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly recently. The recovery of hot metal is restricted by factors such as sinter supply and blast furnace maintenance. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased while demand has decreased. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to follow finished products [9] - Coke: Supply has contracted again, and inventory has been continuously reduced. After three rounds of price hikes, there is a game between coke and steel, and prices are expected to oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Supply remains at a low level, and downstream procurement is good. Mine inventories have dropped to recent lows, and prices are expected to oscillate [12] - Glass: Supply disturbances are expected to intensify, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. With medium and high downstream inventories, if sales are weak, prices will return to an oscillating and weak trend. In the long - term, prices may decline oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Downstream restocking has started, and the cost of soda ash plants has increased. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the price center will decline [15] - Manganese silicon: Cost support is strengthening, but the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward price space is limited [16] - Ferrosilicon: Cost trends are strong, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and there is insufficient upward price drive [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly lower, with non-metallic building materials leading the decline [1] 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Equity Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: Current price 4507.2, daily decline of 1.21%, weekly decline of 1.85%, monthly decline of 2.40%, quarterly decline of 2.40%, and annual increase of 14.95% [2] - SSE 50 futures: Current price 2958.4, daily decline of 0.11%, weekly decline of 0.58%, monthly decline of 1.02%, quarterly decline of 1.02%, and annual increase of 10.47% [2] - CSI 500 futures: Current price 7010, daily decline of 3.06%, weekly decline of 3.52%, monthly decline of 3.85%, quarterly decline of 3.85%, and annual increase of 23.13% [2] - CSI 1000 futures: Current price 7145.8, daily decline of 2.19%, weekly decline of 2.65%, monthly decline of 3.52%, quarterly decline of 3.52%, and annual increase of 22.18% [2] 2.2 Bond Futures - 2-year treasury bond futures: Current price 102.38, daily increase of 0.01%, weekly increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.01%, quarterly increase of 0.01%, and annual decline of 0.57% [2] - 5-year treasury bond futures: Current price 105.78, daily increase of 0.09%, weekly increase of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.14%, quarterly increase of 0.14%, and annual decline of 0.72% [2] - 10-year treasury bond futures: Current price 108.17, daily increase of 0.10%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.30%, quarterly increase of 0.30%, and annual decline of 0.69% [2] - 30-year treasury bond futures: Current price 114.76, daily increase of 0.28%, weekly increase of 0.69%, monthly increase of 0.76%, quarterly increase of 0.76%, and annual decline of 3.43% [2] 2.3 Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Current price 99.26, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.44%, monthly increase of 1.47%, quarterly increase of 1.47%, and annual decline of 8.50% [2] - EUR/USD: Current price 1.157, daily unchanged, weekly decline of 53 pips, monthly decline of 164 pips, quarterly decline of 164 pips, and annual increase of 1217 pips [2] - USD/JPY: Current price 152.31, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.76%, monthly increase of 2.96%, quarterly increase of 2.96%, and annual decline of 3.11% [2] - USD mid-price: Current price 7.1021, daily increase of 14 pips, weekly decline of 27 pips, monthly decline of 34 pips, quarterly decline of 34 pips, and annual decline of 863 pips [2] 2.4 Interest Rates - 7-day interbank pledged repo rate: Current rate 1.46%, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 9 bp, monthly increase of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 1 bp, and annual decline of 29 bp [2] - 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield: Current rate 1.84%, daily increase of 1.8 bp, weekly decline of 0.8 bp, monthly decline of 2.2 bp, quarterly decline of 2.2 bp, and annual increase of 0.2 bp [2] - 10Y US treasury bond yield: Current rate 4.05%, daily decline of 9 bp, weekly unchanged, monthly increase of 0.01 bp, quarterly decline of 11 bp, and annual decline of 50 bp [2] - US 10Y-2Y yield spread: Current spread 0.53%, daily decline of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 0.03 bp, quarterly decline of 3 bp, and annual increase of 20 bp [2] - 10Y breakeven inflation rate: Current rate 2.3%, daily decline of 4 bp, monthly unchanged, quarterly decline of 0.05 bp, quarterly decline of 6 bp, and annual decline of 1 bp [2] 2.5 Metals - Gold: Current price 938.98, daily increase of 1.23%, monthly increase of 7.39%, quarterly increase of 7.39%, and annual increase of 52.04% [2] - Silver: Current price 11533, daily increase of 0.02%, monthly increase of 5.63%, quarterly increase of 5.63%, and annual increase of 54.39% [2] - Copper: Current price 84410, daily decline of 0.83%, monthly increase of 1.56%, quarterly increase of 1.56%, and annual increase of 14.42% [2] - Aluminum: Current price 20860, daily decline of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.87%, quarterly increase of 0.87%, and annual increase of 5.46% [2] - Alumina: Current price 2805, daily decline of 0.53%, monthly decline of 2.20%, quarterly decline of 2.20%, and annual decline of 41.53% [2] - Zinc: Current price 22220, daily decline of 0.16%, monthly increase of 1.81%, quarterly increase of 1.81%, and annual decline of 12.73% [2] - Lead: Current price 120830, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly decline of 0.06%, quarterly decline of 0.06%, and annual decline of 3.14% [2] - Nickel: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Stainless steel: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Tin: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Lithium carbonate: Current price 72680, daily increase of 0.55%, monthly decline of 0.16%, quarterly decline of 0.16%, and annual decline of 5.73% [2] - Industrial silicon: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Rebar: Current price 3061, daily decline of 0.71%, monthly decline of 0.36%, quarterly decline of 0.36%, and annual decline of 7.49% [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Current price 3241, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 0.37%, quarterly decline of 0.37%, and annual decline of 5.18% [2] - Iron ore: Current price 782, daily decline of 2.80%, monthly increase of 0.19%, quarterly increase of 0.19%, and annual increase of 0.39% [2] - Coke: Current price 1654.5, daily increase of 0.73%, monthly increase of 1.94%, quarterly increase of 1.84%, and annual decline of 8.69% [2] - Coking coal: Current price 1153.5, daily increase of 0.65%, monthly increase of 2.44%, quarterly increase of 2.44%, and annual decline of 0.60% [2] - Ferrosilicon: Current price 5378, daily decline of 0.52%, monthly decline of 2.11%, quarterly decline of 2.11%, and annual decline of 14.03% [2] - Manganese silicon: Current price 5738, daily decline of 0.14%, monthly decline of 0.35%, quarterly decline of 0.35%, and annual decline of 5.78% [2] - Glass: Current price 1138, daily decline of 3.48%, monthly decline of 5.95%, quarterly decline of 5.95%, and annual decline of 14.24% [2] - Soda ash: Current price 1234, daily decline of 1.04%, monthly decline of 1.67%, quarterly decline of 1.67%, and annual decline of 13.89% [2] 2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Current price 448.6, daily decline of 1.12%, monthly decline of 6.48%, quarterly decline of 6.48%, and annual decline of 19.88% [2] - Fuel oil: Current price 2700, daily decline of 1.35%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 5.82%, and annual decline of 18.82% [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Current price 3203, daily decline of 0.90%, monthly decline of 6.13%, quarterly decline of 6.13%, and annual decline of 20.02% [2] - Asphalt: Current price 3290, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly decline of 3.91%, quarterly decline of 3.91%, and annual decline of 10.82% [2] - Methanol: Current price 2274, daily decline of 2.90%, monthly decline of 2.32%, quarterly decline of 2.32%, and annual decline of 15.87% [2] - PX: Current price 6338, daily decline of 1.43%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.35% [2] - PTA: Current price 4440, daily decline of 1.55%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.24% [2] - Urea: Current price 1597, daily decline of 0.81%, monthly decline of 4.37%, quarterly decline of 4.37%, and annual decline of 6.44% [2] - Short fiber: Current price 6060, daily decline of 1.17%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 2.82%, and annual decline of 11.22% [2] - Styrene: Current price 6544, daily decline of 2.18%, monthly decline of 4.26%, quarterly decline of 4.26%, and annual decline of 19.19% [2] - Ethylene glycol: Current price 4061, daily decline of 1.22%, monthly decline of 3.47%, quarterly decline of 3.47%, and annual decline of 16.20% [2] - PP: Current price 6602, daily decline of 1.36%, monthly decline of 3.65%, quarterly decline of 3.65%, and annual decline of 11.70% [2] - PVC: Current price 4692, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 3.04%, quarterly decline of 3.04%, and annual decline of 11.30% [2] - Caustic soda: Current price 2428, daily decline of 1.46%, monthly decline of 4.07%, quarterly decline of 4.07%, and annual decline of 16.48% [2] - Rubber: Current price 14845, daily decline of 0.64%, monthly decline of 1.23%, quarterly decline of 1.23%, and annual decline of 16.69% [2] - 20 rubber: Current price 106611, daily decline of 0.42%, monthly decline of 0.91%, quarterly decline of 0.91%, and annual decline of 19.61% [2] - Pulp: Current price 4846, daily increase of 0.08%, monthly increase of 0.25%, quarterly increase of 0.25%, and annual decline of 18.47% [2] 2.7 Agriculture - Soybean meal: Current price 2902, daily decline of 1.02%, monthly decline of 0.89%, quarterly decline of 0.89%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Soybean oil: Current price 8240, daily decline of 0.34%, monthly increase of 1.23%, quarterly increase of 1.23%, and annual increase of 6.85% [2] - Palm oil: Current price 9330, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly increase of 1.11%, quarterly increase of 1.11%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Rapeseed oil: Current price 8664, daily decline of 0.63%, monthly decline of 0.85%, quarterly decline of 0.85%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Rapeseed meal: Current price 2348, daily decline of 1.84%, monthly decline of 3.02%, quarterly decline of 3.02%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Cotton: Current price 13265, daily decline of 0.26%, monthly increase of 0.38%, quarterly increase of 0.38%, and annual decline of 1.70% [2] - Sugar: Current price 5397, daily decline of 1.33%, monthly decline of 1.75%, quarterly decline of 1.75%, and annual decline of 9.46% [2] - Live pigs: Current price 11450, daily increase of 2.92%, monthly decline of 7.32%, quarterly decline of 7.32%, and annual decline of 10.55% [2] - Eggs: Current price 2852, daily increase of 1.57%, monthly decline of 6.12%, quarterly decline of 6.12%, and annual decline of 15.62% [2] - Red dates: Current price 11110, daily decline of 0.18%, monthly increase of 2.68%, quarterly increase of 2.68%, and annual increase of 20.63% [2] - Apples: Current price 8664, daily increase of 0.30%, monthly increase of 0.55%, quarterly increase of 0.55%, and annual increase of 22.37% [2] - Peanuts: Current price 7864, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly increase of 1.29%, quarterly increase of 1.29%, and annual decline of 0.81% [2] - Corn: Current price 2093, daily increase of 0.05%, monthly decline of 2.33%, quarterly decline of 2.33%, and annual decline of 6.10% [2] 3. Macro Analysis 3.1 Overseas Macro - Focus on new tariff threats from Trump and marginal changes in the US government shutdown [5] - There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October [5] - If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will weaken the "bad news is good news" logic and push up the recession risk [5] 3.2 Domestic Macro - China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies [5] - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariff remarks by Trump on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real demand for steel is difficult to reverse. It is necessary to focus on the policy intensity and direction before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3]. - The price of iron ore fluctuates weakly. Although the short - term hot metal output is strong, the demand contradiction is mainly in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, the price of iron ore may be adjusted accordingly. The overall terminal demand is weak, and there are continuous macro - disturbances [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do long may be higher than short - selling. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session. The key time node may be around the Fourth Plenary Session in mid - October [8]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term. After the southwest region enters the dry season, the supply pressure will be reduced, and the cost support will be enhanced. The price of silicon materials is in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. - The glass market is weak. The demand is less than expected, and the inventory is increasing. The soda ash market is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7008 tons to 273365 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 38714 hands to 1.991462 million hands. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3241 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 594 tons to 29778 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 29205 hands to 1.451729 million hands. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The new round of tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment, but the direct impact on steel was limited. The real demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. In the short - term, steel prices may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the overall trend may not change under the loose macro - environment. It is necessary to focus on the policy before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80% (- 22.50). The positions increased by 14460 hands to 499800 hands, and the weighted positions were 832000 hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.67% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel products during the holiday was not low, and the destocking after the holiday was under test. The price of iron ore fluctuated weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5738 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the main contract. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed at 5378 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 272 yuan/ton over the main contract [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, but the port inventory of manganese ore was low, and the price was relatively strong. Ferrosilicon also lacked obvious contradictions. For the black sector, it was considered that finding callback positions to do long was more cost - effective. The price may first decline and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8520 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (- 285). The weighted positions increased by 13354 hands to 442719 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 780 yuan/ton and 380 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 49990 yuan/ton, up 2.56% (+ 1250). The weighted positions increased by 7164 hands to 253779 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2760 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to reduced supply pressure and enhanced cost support in the dry season. The price of silicon materials was in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1138 yuan/ton, down 3.48% (- 41). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+ 5.84%) to 6282.4 million cases. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 1.04% (- 13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%) to 165.98 million tons [17][19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market was weak. The demand of downstream processing enterprises was less than expected, and the inventory was increasing. The soda ash market was expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]