策 略 研 究 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 07 月 19 日 经济预期谨慎，A 股缘何延续强势 一 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 - 证券分析师 券 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 研 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 究 ⚫ 一、2025 下半年经济增速可能相对上半年回落，政策重点仍偏向于调结构，是当前市场 的一致预期，A 股为什么能维持强势？1. 稳定资本市场预期政策，构建了 A 股对宏观扰 动的"隔离墙"，下行风险可控的预期深入人心。2. 反内卷建立了"短期景气亮点"和 "中期供需格局改善"逻辑的连接，上游周期和中游制造"看长做短"行情演绎更加顺 畅。3. 科技景气验证和中美贸谈判成果显现共振，强化了短期价值向成长切换行情。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 证 报 告 ...

太平洋证券：各大板块百家争鸣，目前有三大主线； GUIDE 摘要 财信证券：预计A股市场仍以震荡偏强运行为主； 中国银河证券：科技成长板块仍是市场长期主线。 太平洋证券 各大板块百家争鸣，目前有三大主线 太平洋证券研报称，各大板块百家争鸣，目前主线有三： 一是政策上 反内卷 逐步进入落实阶段，相关板块如光伏、生猪、玻璃等皆走出底部的迹象明显，目前 板块仍处于历史低位，可积极参与。 二是 产业方面有重大转折的板块 ，如固态电池、创新药等。 三是 高股息 板块，其中煤炭板块受益于反内卷，而在没有全球衰退背景下油价较难跌破40美元，也为 能源类高股息提供足够的支撑，银行保险等类债券板块受益于保险资金、公募基金业绩目标改变的资金 流入。 财信证券 预计A股市场仍以震荡偏强运行为主 财信证券认为，近期市场有逐步从"权重搭台"转向"题材唱戏"的趋势，可继续把握近期热点方向的结构 性行情。 8月份之前，宏观层面并无明显利空因素，市场正处于新一轮做多窗口期，叠加投资者情绪改 善、增量资金入场，指数仍有上行动能，虽然面临强压力位的限制，但预计A股市场仍以震荡偏强运行 为主。 在市场宽基指数并未明显突破时，可保持较高权益市场仓位 ...

7月15日，AI算力板块强势上涨，多只被业界视为"AI算力基"的主动权益类产品净值大幅飙升，涨幅甚 至超过了相关ETF产品。其中，基金经理周建胜管理的诺德新生活A当日净值增长率高达9.42%，居全 市场第一；金梓才管理的财通集成电路产业A等6只产品净值增长率都在8%以上。 业内人士认为，光通信、PCB领域在过去两年的AI大发展中实现了高速增长。随着全球大客户需求持续 扩张以及AI产业长期向好，中国厂商有望持续分享全球AI发展红利。目前AI算力领域的价值正被市场 重估，需要关注具备全球竞争力的中国企业。 主动权益基金领涨 7月15日至7月16日，华夏上证科创板50ETF成交额位居股票型ETF首位，连续两个交易日成交额均突破 35亿元。嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF、国联安中证全指半导体ETF最近两个交易日成交额也都在10亿元以 上，位居股票型ETF前列。 从资金流向来看，以华夏上证科创板50ETF为代表的宽基产品强势"吸金"。7月15日，该ETF净流入近10 亿元，位居ETF首位。7月以来，该ETF累计净流入额已接近50亿元，同样在ETF市场排名第一，目前该 ETF规模已回到800亿元以上。此外，嘉实上证科创板芯片E ...

当前阶段，中报业绩和"反内卷"成为A股两大关键词。对此，多方人士建议，可围绕上市公司中报业绩兑 现情况和高景气行业进行布局。同时，在"反内卷"背景下，上市公司盈利拐点或很快出现，届时市场驱动 力将变为由基本面接力。 盘中跌破3500点沪指小幅收跌 进入7月以来，沪指多个交易日收涨并站上3500点，令市场对A股新一轮行情是否启动高度关注。 7月10日，A股三大指数集体收涨，沪指报收3509.68点，涨幅0.48%。这是该指数自2022年1月24日以 来，时隔三年多首次站上3500点。当天，银行股集体走强，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行 四大行，股价集体刷新历史纪录。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 连续站上3500点之后，沪指在7月15日盘中出现回调，一度失守重要指数关口。15日，两市全天成交额 1.61万亿，较上个交易日放量1533亿。 这是沪指连续四天站上3500点。7月10日，沪指重回3500点上方，次日盘中一度反弹至3555.22点。对 于当前的市场走势，中航证券首席策略分析师张郁峰告诉第一财经，前期，随着基本面、消息面的利好带 ...

和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 AI算力，大放异彩！ 今日AI算力表现亮眼，光模块三巨头新易盛、中际、天孚纷纷暴涨。关注重点聚焦光芯片和PCB，此前 分享的仕佳光子、胜宏、鼎泰高科等相关个股表现良好，光芯片自6月18日分享后相关股创新高，PCB 自7月1日分享后多股创新高。今日盘面一度AI算力独大，银行头部与微盘股尾部走弱，若此趋势延 续，中大盘股后续发挥空间或更大。8月资金大概率围绕确定性布局，超跌方向轮动反弹，趋势成长方 向分歧后有望加强。建议继续关注AI算力、创新药等业绩预期好的方向，低位注意基本面改善方向。 投资有风险，需谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 股票名称["新易盛","中际","天孚","仕佳光子","胜宏","鼎泰高科","深南电路","博创"," ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight increase, with active performances in the robotics, AI computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors [1][2] - The robotics sector received two significant boosts: Zhiyuan Robotics acquired equity in Shangwei New Materials, potentially becoming the first domestic robotics complete machine listed company; China Mobile announced a bipedal robot procurement project, with Zhiyuan receiving an order worth 78 million and Yushu receiving an order worth 46 million [1][2] - Domestic robotics exhibit diverse forms, and while overall innovation may not match Tesla, applications in niche areas have begun to materialize [1] Group 2 - In the AI computing power sector, Nvidia's market capitalization reached 4 trillion USD, with strong performances from Microsoft, Broadcom, and TSMC [1] - Key players in the overseas AI computing power supply chain include Zhongji Xuchuang, while domestic players include Shennan Circuit [1] - The report also highlighted various recommended products, emphasizing the importance of independent decision-making in investments [1]

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [1][42]. Core Insights - The MWC Shanghai showcased new opportunities in low-orbit satellite ground infrastructure, with AMD Helios cabinets potentially utilizing more optical modules and copper cables [2][5]. - CoreWeave has initiated the first batch of shipments for the GB300 NVL72 system, expected to significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, with a projected shipment of over one million units of GB200 by 2025 [5][16]. - Oracle has signed a substantial cloud computing agreement worth $30 billion, anticipated to contribute over $30 billion annually starting from the 2028 fiscal year, indicating strong demand for AI computing resources [6][17]. - The new leadership at China Star Network is expected to accelerate the construction and commercialization of low-orbit satellite internet, with a focus on market-oriented operations and ecosystem breakthroughs [7][18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The telecommunications industry is experiencing a shift towards AI computing and satellite internet, driven by significant investments and technological advancements [5][6][7]. - The demand for AI computing is expected to remain robust, with a favorable outlook for the second half of the year and into the next [5][16]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed performance during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [9][20]. - The telecommunications sector saw a slight decline, with the Shenwan Communications Index down by 0.10% [9][20]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the overseas computing sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others [8][20]. - In the satellite internet space, companies such as Shanghai Huanxun and Xinke Mobile are highlighted for potential investment [8][20].

重组公告日，股价"见光死"，疑提前泄密！ | 作者 | | 观韬 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 近期复盘，一次意料之外的股价波动引起了风云君的好奇。 上市公司 杰美特（300868.SZ）在6月20日即周五盘后公告筹划重大资产重组，拟以现金方式购买思 腾合力（天津）科技有限公司（以下简称" 思腾合力"）控制权。 杰美特是手机保护壳上市第一股，思腾合力的主要产品则包括算力服务器、AI管理软件及云计算， 是一家AI算力解决方案提供商，听上去要比手机保护壳要高大上不少。 照理说这么"丝滑"的业务转型不得3个涨停板起步，但杰美特当天开盘象征性冲高后，股价便开始迅 速回落，最终当天收盘大跌6.9%，全天振幅高达14.3%，换手率13.94%，走势呈现破位下跌形态。 而在重组消息公布之前，杰美特自4月底以来已累计上涨超40%，在经历公告首日的大额换手率和宽 幅震荡后，6月23日至7月8日，杰美特下跌超10个点，有人提前走漏了杰美特的重组消息？ 上市 后 深陷 亏损泥潭 ， 命门在手机壳 杰美特成立于2006年，2020年8月在深交所上市，不过一上市就患上风云君多次介绍过的"上市综 ...

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]