Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel is expected to remain strong due to frequent positive policies from Indonesia, a long period of bottom - side oscillation, and attention from profit - seeking funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, despite a fundamental situation of high inventory and oversupply [2]. - Stainless steel prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating state, closely following the price trend of Shanghai nickel, with macro - level benefits being partially realized, continuous inventory reduction for four weeks, and weak downstream demand in the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 132,390 yuan/ton, up 3.86% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,000,602 (+215,362) lots, and the open interest was 149,624 (+1,821) lots. It showed a wide - range oscillating trend of opening low and moving high, accelerating the upward rush in the afternoon, and slightly falling back at the end. The intraday amplitude reached 7.0%, hitting a nine - month high. The price rebounded strongly under the continuous fermentation of the expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota cut, but there was significant divergence between bulls and bears due to policy uncertainty [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: Near the holiday, the nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited, and mines had a bullish expectation. Shipping efficiency was affected by increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron plants were eager to stock up in advance, which might slow down the price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore purchases. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price for January 2026 (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,798 (-712) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 (0) tons [1]. Strategy - The strategy is mainly based on range trading for single - side operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2602 opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 13,090 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 181,552 (+11,677) lots, and the open interest was 88,597 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend of opening low and moving high, with a relatively mild intraday fluctuation and an amplitude of about 2.1%, significantly smaller than that of Shanghai nickel. It rose driven by the strong rebound of Shanghai nickel, but its own weak fundamentals limited the increase, showing a pattern of "passive following + range oscillation" [2]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market trading enthusiasm increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods was average. After traders offered discounts, the transaction situation was relatively good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 60 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2][3]. Strategy - The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，关注行情波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月31日 2025 年 12 月 31 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,390 | 6,680 | 8,950 | 20,100 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to rise further due to the marginal easing of liquidity in the US financial market, the continuous rise of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar, and the tight supply of copper mines, but the accumulation of inventory may suppress the upward trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to continue rising under the influence of the continuous rise of precious metals and the increase of copper price, despite the current high price and the off - season demand [4][5] - The lead price is driven by the marginal contraction of the domestic secondary lead supply and extremely low visible inventory, but the price shock caused by the departure of long - position funds in precious metals should be vigilant [7][8] - The zinc industry's fundamentals are still weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to the high sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors [9][10] - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, and it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] - The lithium carbonate price is affected by factors such as the change of spot pricing method and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [18][19][20] - The alumina price is affected by factors such as the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction [22][23] - The stainless steel price may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25][26] - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strong cost and supply disruptions [28][29] Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME was closed. Driven by supply - side disturbances and the rise of precious metals, the copper price continued to strengthen, and the Shanghai copper price exceeded the 100,000 - yuan mark. The weekly inventory of SHFE copper increased by 16,000 tons to 112,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in the Shanghai and Guangdong regions expanded, and the downstream operating rate decreased [1] - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to rise further, but the impact of inventory accumulation on the upward trend should be noted. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M, it is 12,400 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm macro - sentiment, the high prices of precious metals and copper, the aluminum price fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.58% to 22,405 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased by 20,000 to 674,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount in the East China region was 190 yuan/ton, and the year - end spot trading was still weak [4] - **Strategy View**: The current high aluminum price and the off - season demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the low inventory pattern of LME aluminum remains unchanged. The aluminum price is expected to rise further. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,920 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 1.37% to 17,548 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 11,600 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [7] - **Strategy View**: The primary lead supply is loose, and the secondary lead supply contracts marginally. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the domestic visible inventory is at an absolute low and continues to decline. The lead price is expected to be strong, but the price shock caused by precious metals should be vigilant [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.49% to 23,192 yuan/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,200 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory declines, and the zinc smelting profit stabilizes. The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to sector sentiment [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading is light [11][12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin, it is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 126,750 yuan/ton, up 1.10%. The spot premium of various brands was stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared due to the expected tax on cobalt in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract, it is 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.56% to 120,913 yuan, up 15.08% for the week. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The LC2601 contract closed at 130,520 yuan, up 5.67%, and up 17.16% for the week. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [18][19] - **Strategy View**: The change of spot pricing method by Tianqi Lithium and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises are beneficial to the restoration of spot valuation. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 127,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the alumina index rose 5.23% to 2,748 yuan/ton. The position increased by 25,200 to 644,900 lots. The Shandong spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 160,800 tons. The ore price was stable [22] - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of the AXIS mine. The over - capacity in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 11,745 to 182,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 607 tons. The social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% [25][26] - **Strategy View**: Driven by the Indonesian nickel ore quota plan in 2026, the stainless steel price continued to rise last week. The inventory decreased, and the cost was supported. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose first and then fell. The main AD2602 contract rose 0.21% to 21,390 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 21,700 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 70,400 tons. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 300 tons to 46,300 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The short - term price is expected to be strong [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Industry and capital are in a game, with nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely. Stainless steel is constrained by fundamentals, and its direction depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [3][5][7]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and short - term supply is expected to be disrupted. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to short industrial silicon after a rebound, and polysilicon is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are strengthening. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter after the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [84][86][87]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will oscillate, and risks during the New Year's Day holiday should be avoided [101]. - **Corn**: Focus on the performance of the spot market. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation in northern ports, the inventory building of traders, and the amount of supply from the grass - roots level [114]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a low - level range consolidation. The domestic sugar market maintains a weak basis expectation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's production and relevant industrial policies, and domestic import policy changes [137][159]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in the short term. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation, but the upward space may be limited [167][178]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The LH2601 futures contract may rise rapidly, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Spot prices are stable, and futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the purchase strategies of large - scale oil mills [202]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Industry News**: Indonesian government may cut nickel ore quotas to 2.5 billion tons in 2026 and include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. The cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [3][4]. - **Market Trend**: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to the game between industry and capital. Stainless steel is constrained by fundamentals, and its cost center has shifted upward [5][7]. - **Inventory**: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price closed at 8,880 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price closed at 58,955 yuan/ton [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, with supply expected to decrease and demand remaining weak. Polysilicon supply and demand are both weak, with upstream inventories accumulating [30][31][33]. - **Future Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to have its price lifted by sentiment in the short term, but the upward space is limited. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Fluctuation**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose to 111,900 yuan/ton [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas shipments are increasing, and short - term production elasticity is limited. Positive electrode factories are starting maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [65]. - **Market Outlook**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are strengthening. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Logic**: In December, palm oil production decreased by nearly 10%, and high - frequency export data was good. Soybean oil rebounded following palm oil [82][83]. - **This Week's Logic**: Palm oil production in December decreased by 8%, and exports increased by 2%. It may confirm the price bottom in the short term. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range [84][86]. - **Market Outlook**: Palm oil needs to wait for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [84][86][87]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Previous Week's Market**: Last week, US soybean futures prices fluctuated, with the main 03 - month contract rising 1.16%. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly oscillating, and soybean No.1 futures prices rose slightly [97]. - **Fundamentals**: China's purchase of US soybeans is limited, and Brazilian soybean import costs have decreased. Domestic soybean meal trading volume has increased, and soybean No.1 prices are stable [97][99][100]. - **Future Forecast**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will oscillate, and risks during the New Year's Day holiday should be avoided [101]. Corn - **Market Review**: Last week, corn spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices rebounded. Corn starch inventories increased [109][110][113]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose, wheat prices fell, and imported corn auctions restarted. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market [111][112][114]. Sugar - **Market Review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price rose 2.15%. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price rose 197 yuan/ton [135][136]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's sugar production increased by 450,000 tons, India's increased by 1.72 million tons, and Thailand's increased by 1.27 million tons [135]. - **Market Outlook**: The international sugar market is in a low - level range consolidation. The domestic sugar market maintains a weak basis expectation [137][159]. Cotton - **Market Review**: ICE cotton rebounded slightly, and domestic cotton prices rose. Cotton exports from the US improved, and India's CCI continued to purchase [161][166][167]. - **Supply and Demand**: New cotton has been on the market for more than three months, supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season. However, the market is not pessimistic about the annual demand in the 2025/26 season [162][178]. - **Market Outlook**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in the short term. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation, but the upward space may be limited [167][178]. Live Pigs - **Market Review**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices oscillated strongly. Supply decreased, and demand was still in the peak season [180][181]. - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The LH2601 futures contract may rise rapidly, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [182][183]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and oil mill开机率 increased [201]. - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices are stable, and futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the purchase strategies of large - scale oil mills [202].

近期不锈钢市场涨势明显。截至12月25日，无锡太钢304/2B2.0mm市场价格在13500-13600元/吨，较上 周同期涨300元/吨，幅度在2.26%。 (12月26日)今日全国不锈钢板价格一览表 12月19日不锈钢期货库存录得48495.00吨，较上一交易日减少12106.00吨。 分析观点： 华泰期货研报：需求低迷、库存高企，成本重心持续下移，预计不锈钢仍将保持低位震荡态势。风险： 国内相关经济政策、房地产政策变动，印尼政策变动，新任美国总统计划出台的一系列政策。 期货市场上看，12月26日收盘，不锈钢期货主力合约报12955.00元/吨，跌幅0.00%，最高触及13010.00 元/吨，最低下探12895.00元/吨，日内成交量达129760手。 【市场资讯】 据了解，印尼某主流不锈钢厂周三将出口盘价上调20美元/吨，两周内累计涨幅已达80美元/吨。这一持 续的挺价举措显示出外盘强劲的成本支撑及看涨意愿。 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | 报价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].