Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Morning Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals - Report Sector: Non - ferrous metals and precious metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical reasoning, and provides trading strategies for various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Overall, the precious metals market is in an upward trend, while different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and challenges, such as supply shortages, demand fluctuations, and policy impacts [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold broke through the $4000/oz mark, closing up 1.4% at $4040.745/oz; London silver rose 2.36% to $48.88/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.767, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.11% [2]. - **Important Information**: The US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill, the Fed is divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of interest rate cuts is high. Trump announced a peace plan between Israel and Hamas [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Uncertainties such as the US government shutdown, global political turmoil, and China's increase in gold reserves have increased investors' demand for gold as a hedge, pushing up gold prices. Silver prices have also risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on the dips for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; take profit on out - of - the - money call options and collar call options bought before the holiday [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $10701/ton, down 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 139,200 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1947 tons to 335,500 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, QB mine cut copper production guidance, Aurubis raised the price of refined copper, and Australia provided financial support to copper smelters [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Copper mine supply is tight, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - sided trading; hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decreases; wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2868 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a narrow - range decline [10][11]. - **Important Information**: Overseas alumina was traded at different prices, Inalum planned to expand production, and the supply of alumina was estimated to be in surplus in September [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply is in an excess pattern, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina to maintain a weak trend for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20160 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [16]. - **Important Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises extended their holidays [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for raw material inventory in recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the holiday of downstream die - casting enterprises is extended. The spot price is expected to be firm, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the aluminum alloy futures price to open higher and then weaken slightly for single - sided trading; pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage if the futures price opens higher; wait and see for options [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20680 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose 3.22% during the holiday. The spot price increased [20]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and the Fed's internal differences in interest rate cuts. The domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and some enterprises increased production during the holiday [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by interest rate cut expectations and the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the LME aluminum price rose during the holiday. The domestic demand is slowly recovering, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation after the holiday [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing high prices and wait and see for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc price fell 1.53% to $2995/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Kipushi mine increased production, Golden Grove mine postponed high - grade zinc ore mining, and the LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The non - ferrous metal sector was strong during the holiday, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to a two - year low. The domestic market is in surplus, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the SHFE zinc price to be strong in the short term and go short on the high for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [28]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead price fell 0.02% to $2005.5/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME lead inventory was high [30]. - **Important Information**: A lead - zinc mine in Fujian postponed production [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for lead concentrate is large, and the supply is in a tight balance. The primary lead smelter is in a small loss, and the secondary lead smelter may increase production. The consumption season is not as expected [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the lead price to fall; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [33]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price fell to $15390/ton, and the inventory increased. The spot premium decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia adjusted the RKAB approval system [34][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global primary nickel supply is expected to be in excess, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for options [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2511 contract closed at 12730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [39]. - **Important Information**: The EU tightened steel import policies, and a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from a Taiwanese supplier [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand for stainless steel is differentiated, and the supply is high. Without production - capacity reduction policies, the trend is weak [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a weak oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures price fell before the holiday, and the spot price was at a premium [44][45]. - **Important Information**: Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The output increased, and the demand was strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on the dips [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips for single - sided trading; buy out - of - the - money put options for options; no strategy for arbitrage [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price oscillated narrowly before the holiday, and the spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information**: India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese polysilicon products [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in October, demand is weakening, and there may be a callback in November. It is recommended to buy on the dips after the callback [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips after a full callback for single - sided trading; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts for arbitrage; buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options for options [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract closed at 72800 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: Chile's lithium exports increased in September, the US terminated energy projects, and a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state lithium batteries [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight in October and may return to balance in November. October may be a turning point [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The LME tin price fell to $36250/ton, and the spot price rose. The LME tin inventory increased [57][58]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, and the global AI infrastructure expenditure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2026 [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term weak oscillation and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar for single - sided trading; wait and see for options [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and production cuts, with supply expected to increase and consumption remaining weak next week. The overall trend is a bullish one, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [3][7][8]. - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [15]. - The aluminum market is influenced by overseas monetary policy expectations, and prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [20][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost, and futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [26][27]. - The zinc market may be supported by overseas de - stocking, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [32][33][34]. - The lead market has a tight balance in the raw material end and uncertain production at the smelting end. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season. Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [39][40][41]. - The nickel market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation due to a large surplus in the next two years and limited impact from policy changes [44][46][47]. - The stainless steel market has a differentiated terminal demand, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [53][54][55]. - The tin market has a tight supply at the mine end, and short - term prices may oscillate with limited space. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][62][63]. - The industrial silicon market has strong short - term demand, and the strategy is to buy on dips [67][68][70]. - The polysilicon market is affected by supply - demand imbalance, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [73][74][75]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand situation in October, but may return to balance in November. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [77][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.19%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 31,427 lots to 564,600 lots [2]. - Spot: After the holiday, copper prices soared, and spot trading was sluggish. Premiums varied in different regions [2]. Important Information - As of October 9, the national mainstream copper inventory increased, and it is expected to increase next week due to supply increase and consumption weakness [3]. - On October 8, the Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Peruvian copper mine [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply disruptions and production cuts intensify the tightness of copper mines, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and prices are mainly affected by rigid demand [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 11,316 lots to 387,800 lots [11]. - Spot: Prices in different regions showed a downward trend [11]. Related Information - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased. National inventory increased, and there was a monthly supply surplus [12]. - The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased in September, and the industry's average profit decreased [13]. Logic Analysis - Supply continues to increase, resulting in an oversupply situation. Production cuts may occur in October or November, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to be weak [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract increased by 335 yuan to 21,090 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 38,408 lots to 500,500 lots [18]. - Spot: Aluminum ingot prices in different regions increased [18]. Related Information - The US government shut down, and economic data release was delayed. Domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and inventory increased after the holiday [18][19]. Trading Logic - Affected by overseas monetary policy expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term inventory accumulation [20][21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to rise in an oscillating manner [22]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [22]. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 300 yuan to 20,550 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 1,259 lots to 21,433 lots [25]. - Spot: Prices remained stable in different regions [25]. Related Information - The warehouse - receipt of aluminum alloy on the SHFE increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [25]. Trading Logic - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to drive the price of ADC12 spot [26]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 increased by 1.73% to 22,315 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased its positions by 13,700 lots to 221,200 lots [31]. - Spot: Trading was mainly among traders, and downstream enterprises had low willingness to receive goods [31]. Related Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased after the holiday, and the Kipushi mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [32]. Logic Analysis - Overseas de - stocking may support prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing [33]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may be strong, and short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [34]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [34]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 1.09% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index decreased its positions by 991 lots to 71,900 lots [36]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and trading was light [36][38]. Related Information - Lead ingot inventory decreased, and the resumption of a lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed [39]. Logic Analysis - The raw material end is in a tight balance, and the smelting end has uncertain production. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [41]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [41]. Nickel Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel 2511 contract increased by 2,900 to 124,480 yuan/ton [43]. - Spot: Premiums of different brands of nickel remained stable or slightly increased [43]. Related Information - Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026. Indonesia adjusted the RKAB quota approval system, and Antam invested in a nickel project [44][46]. Logic Analysis - The nickel market has a large surplus in the next two years, and policy changes have limited impact. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [46]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [47]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [48]. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The Stainless Steel SS2511 contract increased by 75 to 12,860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The EU tightened steel import policies, a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from Taiwan, and an Indian stainless steel company put a new plant into operation [53][54]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is differentiated, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [55]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [56]. Tin Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 287,070 yuan/ton, up 2.99%, and positions increased by 13,345 lots to 70,056 lots [58]. - Spot: The market was inactive, and downstream replenishment willingness was low [58]. Related Information - PT Timah in Indonesia adjusted the tin sand purchase price and payment method, and the government cracked down on illegal mining [59]. Logic Analysis - The US government shutdown and Indonesian mining crackdown have limited impact on supply. The mine end is still tight, and short - term supply shows improvement signs [62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may oscillate with limited space, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [63]. - Options: Wait and see [64]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The Industrial Silicon 2511 contract oscillated and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton [65]. - Spot: Spot prices were at a premium to futures [66]. Related Information - Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [67]. Comprehensive Analysis - Affected little by the external market, with strong short - term demand, the strategy is to buy on dips [68]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [70]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options [70]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The Polysilicon 2511 contract first fell and then rose, closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day's settlement price [72]. - Spot: Spot prices were stable [72]. Related Information - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells [73]. Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand is bearish for the market, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [74]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy low after a sufficient callback [75]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread between 2511 and 2512 contracts [75]. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options [75]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 200 to 73,340 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 670 to 42,379 tons [76]. - Spot: Spot prices remained stable [76]. Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in September, the US terminated energy projects, a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state batteries, and a large lithium deposit was discovered in Germany [77][78]. Logic Analysis - Supply - demand is tight in October but may return to balance in November. October may be a critical turning point [79]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Wait and see [81].

Core Insights - The annual "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Fujian Province" reflects the development of the private economy in the province, with an entry threshold of 5.621 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year. The total revenue reached 241.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, while total profits amounted to 17.2 billion yuan, also showing growth [1]. Financial Performance - The top 100 private enterprises contributed a total tax revenue of 63.6 billion yuan, increasing by 17.1%. They created employment for 973,000 people, up by 3.3%. Research and development investments by these enterprises reached 42.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with 71,000 R&D personnel, growing by 0.6% [1]. - There are 55 enterprises with revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, an increase of 2 from the previous year. Notable companies include Fuyao Glass, Luckin Coffee, and Dali Foods [5]. Industry Distribution - The second industry comprises 66 enterprises with total revenue of 185.26 billion yuan and profits of 15.83 billion yuan, employing over 670,000 people. The third industry includes 34 enterprises with total revenue of 56.71 billion yuan, employing over 290,000 people. Manufacturing dominates, with the top ten companies holding nine positions [3]. - The electronic information industry saw a revenue growth of 33.38%, while the metallurgy and building materials sector experienced a profit increase of 46.4% [3]. Regional Distribution - Fuzhou leads with 36 enterprises on the list, generating total revenue of 967.01 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the total revenue of the top 100. Xiamen follows with 27 enterprises, Quanzhou with 19, and other cities contributing fewer [3]. Notable Companies - Six companies have entered the "billion-dollar club," with notable revenue growth: Zhongjing Petrochemical (1.0963 billion yuan, +36.6%), Hengshen Group (1.0687 billion yuan, +22.5%), and Yongrong Group (1.0273 billion yuan, +24.2%) [7]. - Ningde Times continues to lead in multiple categories, achieving a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. The company has served over 20.43 million vehicles and maintains the top position in global power battery installation for eight consecutive years [10]. Rankings - The top three companies remain unchanged: Ningde Times, Qingtuo Group, and Fujian Dadonghai Group, with revenues of 362.01 billion yuan, 143.7 billion yuan, and 122.05 billion yuan respectively [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly oscillating strongly, with increased costs in each industrial chain link and firm bottom support. In Q4, the Indonesian nickel - ore policy is the biggest variable, and the new energy sector may continue to be strong. The cobalt price is expected to rise, supporting the MHP cobalt coefficient [1]. - For stainless steel in Q4, attention should be paid to the demand recovery trend. The continuous strength of ferronickel supports the bottom space, but the upward drive is insufficient. The end of Q4 usually sees a small uptick in demand. There is also a mild Fed rate - cut expectation [2]. - The expected core fluctuation range of Shanghai nickel in Q4 is [118,000 - 126,000] yuan/ton, with strong support at 115,000 yuan/ton. The core fluctuation range of stainless steel is [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Q3 Market Review - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly driven by multiple news stimuli. After the market reaction, the prices mostly returned to the oscillation range. High inventory and low demand constrained the upward movement, while the cost and production - cut expectations limited the downward space [6][7]. - From the beginning of Q3 to mid - July, the market was driven by macro and policy emotions. In August, sudden news from Indonesian parks and rumors about mine rights/quotas pushed the prices up briefly. In September, news stimuli and Fed rate - cut expectations affected the market, and the funds mainly took profit and reduced positions [6][7]. Group 4: Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In Q3, the nickel - ore market was relatively firm. In Indonesia, the mining pressure remained due to environmental reviews, and the supply was tight. In the Philippines, the production and shipment were at seasonal highs in Q3 but are expected to decline seasonally in Q4 [19]. - Policy disturbances in Indonesia may be the mainstream factor in Q4. New quota approvals are approaching, but supply release may be limited. The domestic trade ore price premium remains strong [19][20]. Ferronickel - In Q3, the ferronickel market gradually strengthened, with the price rising from 900 yuan/nickel point to 955 yuan/nickel point. The main reason was the increased acceptance of high - price ferronickel by stainless - steel mills [22]. - In Q4, the ferronickel market may be in a high - level oscillation, with limited upward drive. The supply may be affected by quota release and the rainy season, and the demand depends on the continuation of stainless - steel demand [22][24]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q3, the nickel - sulfate and intermediate market was mainly in a tight - balance state. The demand from downstream battery enterprises and the rising cobalt price supported the price [29]. - In Q4, the demand for nickel sulfate may continue due to the restocking needs of electric - vehicle and battery manufacturers. The price is expected to remain strong, and the new energy sector may support the nickel price [29]. Stainless Steel - In Q3, the stainless - steel market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the price mainly in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro and news stimuli, but the demand and inventory contradictions were not resolved [36]. - In Q4, the stainless - steel price depends on demand recovery, supply - side optimization, and policy implementation. The price is expected to be in the range of [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton, with fluctuations depending on production cuts and demand fulfillment [37][38]. Group 5: Q4 Balance Deduction - The profit game between upstream and downstream in the industrial chain is intense. The supply is relatively abundant, and the main variable lies in new - energy demand. The demand shows differentiation, with limited marginal increase in stainless steel and expected marginal increase in the new - energy sector [48]. - The supply - demand balance depends on the performance of stainless steel in October and the further development of the new - energy sector. The demand in October is optimistic, and the year - end demand depends on new - energy demand growth [48].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on September 30, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in mining certificates, and light - position operations are recommended before the holiday [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Supply and demand are weakening [2][14] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy expectations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 280 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 97,757 lots, down 65,749 lots from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,760 yuan, down 80 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 275,456 lots, up 13,269 lots from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel production is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target. Some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month. There are also issues such as illegal mining crackdowns and forestry violations in nickel mines [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73,920 yuan, up 1,040 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 465,591 lots, down 15,429 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2511 basis was - 370 yuan, down 1,090 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is building a lithium sulfate plant [12][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 392,702 lots, down 77,321 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2511 contract was 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - On September 25, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises to discuss policies for high - quality development [15] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].