Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "buy" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 18.9, indicating a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongyue Group achieved revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with a gross margin of 29.1%, up nearly 9.3 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153.3%, slightly exceeding the company's profit forecast [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Business - The refrigerant business experienced rapid growth, contributing significantly to the company's performance, with revenue of RMB 22.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%; profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 209.8%, with a segment profit margin of 44.9%, up 23.5 percentage points, driven by significant price increases in key products [2] - As of September 12, 2025, the price of second-generation refrigerant R22 was RMB 34,500 per ton, up RMB 2,500 per ton since the beginning of the year; third-generation refrigerants R134a and R32 also saw price increases [2] Group 3: Fluoropolymer and Silicone Business - The fluoropolymer materials segment faced weak downstream demand, leading to a further decline in product prices; however, the company maintained a competitive advantage with superior product quality, achieving revenue of RMB 19.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and a segment profit margin of 13.4% [3] - The silicone segment experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to oversupply and weak downstream demand, with revenue of RMB 27.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, and a segment profit margin of 0.38% [3]

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry in China is experiencing stable quota policies, with the total quota for 2026 remaining the same as in 2025, while quotas for R25 and R41 are increased to compensate for the exit of 141B from the market, leading to an expected continuous rise in overall prices [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Quota Adjustments and Price Trends - The quota for 232 types of refrigerants can be flexibly adjusted between 10% and 30%, allowing companies to respond to market demand while maintaining overall price increases under national control [1][4]. - The average price of third-generation refrigerants is approximately 50,000 yuan, with a long-term stable upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected for products like R32 [1][6]. Demand from Downstream Sectors - Despite a downturn in the global real estate market, demand for refrigerants in downstream sectors such as air conditioning and refrigeration continues to grow, with annual growth in new air conditioning units projected at 8% to 15% [1][7][12]. - Approximately 80% of new air conditioning units still utilize third-generation refrigerants, indicating a stable demand growth in the air conditioning market [8][12]. Future Production Capacity - An estimated 100,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be launched in the Middle East and India by 2026, which could alleviate supply-demand tensions, although the success rate of these projects is anticipated to be below 40% [1][9][11]. Liquid Cooling Technology Impact - Liquid cooling technology is significantly increasing the demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with expected annual demand reaching tens of thousands of tons [1][14]. Second and Fourth Generation Refrigerants - The second-generation refrigerants are facing quota reductions, while the fourth-generation refrigerants currently lack formal domestic production capacity, with large-scale production expected only after 2030 [2][15]. - The price of second-generation refrigerants is expected to stabilize, while fourth-generation refrigerants are projected to see a rapid increase in application in air conditioning systems, reaching 20% by 2025 [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The actual usage of refrigerants globally is around 23,000 tons, with a mismatch between planned production capacity and actual demand [17]. - The overall price trend for refrigerants is expected to maintain a 30% increase before 2029, driven by technological advancements and market demand changes [25]. - The current average price for second and third-generation refrigerants is about 80,000 yuan per ton, nearing a peak, with a potential ceiling at 100,000 yuan [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the refrigerant industry conference call, highlighting the current state, future expectations, and underlying dynamics affecting the market.

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th this week (2025/09/08-2025/09/12) with a change of 2.36%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.25 percentage points [2][3] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2][3] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments that may disrupt fossil-based materials, favoring low-energy products [2] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [2] - Companies like Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio are highlighted as leaders in the synthetic biology sector [2] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [3] - The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia [3] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. are positioned to benefit from this trend [3] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry, characterized by high technical barriers and added value [4] - The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity [4] - Companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are expected to capitalize on the growing demand driven by semiconductors, displays, and photovoltaics [4] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards lighter raw materials in the global olefin industry is noted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane [5] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are recognized for their low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [5] - Satellite Chemical is recommended as a key player in the light hydrocarbon chemical sector [5] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries to China [6] - COC/COP materials are increasingly used in high-end applications, with domestic firms expected to overcome supply-side bottlenecks [6] - Akolai is identified as a company to watch in the COC polymer production segment [6] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [9] - The market is currently experiencing price stabilization at low levels, but profitability remains strong [9] - Wanhu Chemical is highlighted as a key player in the polyurethane sector, benefiting from the anticipated improvement in the MDI supply landscape [9] Potash Fertilizer - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking phase, with supply constraints due to Canpotex withdrawing new quotes and Nutrien announcing production cuts [7][8] - The demand for potash is projected to rise as farmers increase planting intentions, influenced by rising grain prices [8] - Companies such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Cangge Mining are noted as leading firms in the potash sector [8] Weekly Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included liquid chlorine (21.69%), acrylic acid (5.66%), and trichloroethylene (4.44%) [10] - The top five price decreases included butyl rubber (-11.25%), NYMEX natural gas futures (-4.33%), and DMF (-3.68%) [10] Supply-Side Tracking - A total of 162 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected this week, with 7 new repairs and 11 restarts reported [11]

Summary of the Conference Call on Juhua Co., Ltd. and the Refrigerant Industry Company Overview - Juhua Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the fluorochemical sector in China, particularly in the refrigerant market, holding the top position in the allocation of third-generation refrigerants [3][27][30]. Industry Insights Refrigerant Industry Transition - The refrigerant industry is undergoing a generational shift, with first-generation refrigerants being phased out, second-generation facing elimination, and third-generation entering a peak production phase [2]. - Fourth-generation refrigerants are environmentally friendly but face regulatory restrictions [2]. Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has implemented a quota system for third-generation refrigerants, which is less than the international amendment requirements, focusing on protecting low GWP (Global Warming Potential) products like R32 [2][10][11]. - The government has shown restraint in quota issuance, indirectly supporting price increases [2][14]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for refrigerants is primarily driven by air conditioning (78%), refrigerators (16%), and automotive applications (6%) [6]. - The market has shifted to a seller's market, with high consistency on the supply side, allowing for price increases even in off-peak seasons [2][20][21]. Key Financial Metrics - Juhua Co., Ltd. has an annual profit close to 7 billion yuan, with a current valuation around 12 times earnings, expected to rise to 15-20 times as the company moves away from cyclical product perceptions [29][30]. Pricing Trends - The price of R32 has risen to 61,500 yuan per ton, reflecting strong demand and a shift in pricing power towards upstream manufacturers [18][25]. - The refrigerant market has seen significant price increases, with the price of third-generation refrigerants tripling from 15,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan per ton [25]. Future Outlook - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to maintain high prices due to tight supply and increasing demand, with potential further increases as the market transitions to fourth-generation products [21][23]. - Juhua Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its leading market share and strong R&D capabilities [3][30]. Conclusion - Juhua Co., Ltd. is recommended for investment due to its dominant position in the refrigerant market, strong pricing power, and favorable industry dynamics, particularly as the market shifts towards more environmentally friendly refrigerants [30].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish atmosphere, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high on September 12. Stocks with significant earnings growth and recent historical price highs are of particular interest for future performance [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Industry Insights - In September, 21 stocks reached historical price highs, with over 100% net profit growth in the first half of the year, primarily in AI hardware, non-ferrous resources, and refrigerant sectors [1]. - The refrigerant industry is seeing a continuous upward trend, with leading companies reporting impressive performance in the first half of the year. The supply side is tightening due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants by 2025, while downstream demand is steadily recovering [1][2]. - Dongyangguang's net profit surged nearly 171% year-on-year in the first half of the year, driven by rising refrigerant prices and increased demand for electronic components in data centers and energy storage [1][2]. Group 2: Company Developments - Dongyangguang announced a significant investment of 7.5 billion yuan to acquire 100% of Qinhuai Data, a leading player in the IDC industry, with a total transaction value of 28 billion yuan. This acquisition aims to enhance national data security and integrate resources in various fields [2]. - The chairman of Dongyangguang emphasized that this acquisition is a crucial step in integrating into the national computing network and aims to build a comprehensive digital infrastructure ecosystem [2]. Group 3: Stock Performance Metrics - The average increase for the 21 stocks in the first half of the year was approximately 131%, significantly outperforming the broader market. Notable performers include Shijia Photon, Xinyi Technology, and Shanghai Xiba, each increasing over 300% [3]. - A detailed performance table shows that Shijia Photon had a staggering 1712% year-on-year net profit growth, while other companies like Xinyi Technology and Shanghai Xiba also reported substantial increases [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft plan for the total allocation of ozone-depleting substances for 2026, indicating a reduction in production and internal use quotas for HCFCs and HFCs, which may sustain high industry prosperity due to supply constraints and strong demand in air conditioning markets [1] Group 1: Quota Adjustments - For HCFCs, the production and internal use quotas for 2026 are set at 151,400 tons and 79,700 tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 12,200 tons and 6,300 tons compared to 2025 [1] - Specifically, the R22 production and internal use quotas for 2026 are 146,100 tons and 78,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 3,000 tons and 2,900 tons from 2025 [1] Group 2: HFCs Quota Changes - In the case of HFCs, the production quota for R245fa is increased by 3,000 tons for 2026 compared to 2025, while the R41 production quota is raised by 50 tons, with other varieties remaining unchanged [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The quota system for refrigerants HCFCs and HFCs maintains supply constraints, combined with high product concentration, a favorable competitive landscape, and robust demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggesting that the industry's high prosperity may continue [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The demand peak season is approaching, and the outlook for viscose staple fiber is expected to improve. The viscose staple fiber sector is subject to policy restrictions on new product construction. Recently, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has been at a high level, with rapid inventory decline and improved profit margins. The traditional demand peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to boost demand for viscose staple fiber [6][12]. Industry Overview - From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the basic chemical industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.36%, ranking 20th among all Shenwan first-level industries in terms of weekly performance. The top five stocks in terms of weekly gains in the basic chemical industry were: Dazhongnan, Lushan New Materials, Taihe Technology, Lingpai Technology, and Jianbang Co., Ltd. The top five stocks in terms of weekly losses were: Tongyi Zhong, Meilian New Materials, Jianye Co., Ltd., *ST Yatai, and Akoli [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - With the traditional demand peak season approaching, the outlook for viscose staple fiber is expected to improve. Mid-term investment focus in the basic chemical industry includes: 1. Refrigerant industry constrained by quotas (Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group); 2. Industries benefiting from "anti-involution," such as titanium dioxide (Longbai Group); 3. Industries driven by domestic demand to hedge against tariff impacts, such as phosphate fertilizer (Yuntianhua) and civil explosives (Guangdong Hongda) [8][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained upward trend in demand, with leading companies showing significant profit growth in H1 2025. The production quotas for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced, and third-generation refrigerants will be subject to production quotas, tightening supply. This, combined with a steady recovery in downstream demand, is optimizing the supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant market [1][2] - The price of refrigerants has been rising, leading to substantial increases in profitability for major companies. For instance, in H1 2025, the net profits of major domestic refrigerant companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group increased by 146.97%, 159.22%, 140.80%, and 153.28% respectively [1] - The price differences for third-generation refrigerants have significantly increased, with R32 prices rising by 15.24% since early July 2025 and 40.70% since the beginning of the year. The price difference for R32 reached 42,761 yuan/ton, reflecting a 19.68% increase since early July and a 66.79% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - Leading refrigerant companies are accelerating their entry into the liquid cooling sector, driven by tightening environmental regulations and increasing demand for AI computing power. Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are investing in high-value-added liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to benefit from the growing AI computing needs and domestic substitution opportunities [3][4] - The liquid cooling technology market is projected to grow significantly, with global market sizes expected to reach 4.5 billion USD in 2025 and 19.4 billion USD by 2032, representing a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is in a high prosperity cycle, with major companies reporting strong performance due to supply constraints and rising prices [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in downstream demand, which is expected to further support price increases in the refrigerant market [2] Price Trends - The report tracks significant price increases for key refrigerants, with R32, R125, and R134a showing notable price growth in 2025 [2][18] - The price of R32 reached 60,500 yuan/ton, marking a 40.70% increase since the beginning of 2025 [2] Company Developments - Major companies are expanding their operations into the liquid cooling market, with Juhua Co. planning to produce 5,000 tons/year of cooling liquid and Sanmei Co. launching a 19,000 tons/year electronic-grade fluorinated liquid project [3][4] - The transition to liquid cooling technologies is seen as a strategic move to capture growth opportunities in the AI sector and to leverage existing technological advantages [3][4]

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 1.11% from August 23 to August 29, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.71%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.60 percentage points, ranking 11th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included nylon (5.68%), rubber additives (5.44%), potassium fertilizer (4.65%), food and feed additives (2.99%), and fluorochemicals (2.99%) [1][2] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were NYMEX natural gas (11.11%), crude phenol (7.12%), niacinamide (5.78%), phenol oil (5.16%), and hydrofluoric acid (5.00%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included liquid chlorine (-75.00%), sodium (-6.78%), coal tar (-4.17%), anthracene oil (-4.11%), and lithium carbonate (industrial grade) (-4.09%) [3] Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the basic chemical sector achieved operating revenue of 1,123.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.72 billion yuan, up 4.43% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, the sector reported operating revenue of 587.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.80% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.38%, with a net profit of 35.72 billion yuan, down 2.66% year-on-year but up 5.03% quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improving trend in quarterly profitability [4] Company Performance Highlights - In the refrigerant sector, Juhua Co. reported H1 2025 operating revenue of 13.33 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 145.84% year-on-year [6] - Sanmei Co. achieved H1 2025 operating revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, a 38.58% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 999.5 million yuan, up 159.22% year-on-year [6] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, Yara International reported H1 2025 operating revenue of 2.52 billion yuan, a 48.54% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, up 216.64% year-on-year [7] - Salt Lake Co. reported H1 2025 operating revenue of 6.78 billion yuan, down 6.30% year-on-year, but a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, up 13.69% year-on-year [7] Investment Recommendations - Current investment focus includes the refrigerant sector, with recommendations for companies like Jingshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [9] - The chemical fiber sector is also highlighted, with recommendations for Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [9] - Other recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [9] - The tire sector includes recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [9] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, recommended companies include Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [9] - High-quality growth stocks to watch include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [9] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [10]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week (2025/08/25-2025/08/29) with a fluctuation of 1.11%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index saw a fluctuation of 7.74%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 6.63 percentage points [1][2]. Key Industry Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that utilize green energy alternatives and scale advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [2]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will see accelerated reductions. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with a high quota share in refrigerants are likely to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand gap. Relevant companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [3][4]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core aspect of domestic industrial chain localization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, leading to a mismatch between the demand for high-end electronic specialty gases and the insufficient domestic production capacity. Companies that can establish high-end production capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are expected to gain a competitive edge. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [4][5]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals are also aligned with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. The leading companies in this sector are expected to see their valuations reassessed positively [5]. COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of research. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic production has heightened the urgency for local alternatives. The market for COC/COP remains constrained by supply-side bottlenecks, but domestic companies are poised to break through and expand market opportunities. Notable companies include Akerley [6]. MDI Market Dynamics - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with demand remaining stable due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among eight manufacturers, with five major companies accounting for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, and the supply landscape is likely to improve as demand recovers. Key companies to monitor include Wanhua Chemical [9]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (11.08%), bisphenol A (2.99%), PX (2.86%), refrigerant R32 (2.56%), and butadiene (2.08%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-25.86%), urea (-3.45%), TDI (-3.33%), toluene (-3.18%), and pure benzene (-2.70%) [10]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 153 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with six new maintenance activities and four restarts noted [11].