人民币升值下的行业机会 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2026年1月23日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：1）全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。2）市场流动性超预期变化。3）历史数据不代表未来。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 1、人民币升值对于A股有何影响？——在人民币升值周期内，无论人民币是否为被动升值，全A指数普遍呈现上行趋势。行业上，人 民币升值对于多数行业股价均有正向影响，其中钢铁、房地产、轻工和交运等行业靠前。风格上，多数区间成长风格强于价值风格， 大盘和小盘之间无明显占优风格。 ➢ 2、如何寻找人民币升值下的行业机会？——基本面视角。直接来看，人民币升值会降低原材料成本和债务成本，间接来看，人民币升 值会提升人民币购买力。1）进口依赖度高且海外营收占比相对较低的行业，人民币升值或能降低原材料成本，如有色、钢铁、煤炭和 农林牧渔。2）美元借款体量大的行业，人民币升值或能降低债务成本，如电子、交运、建筑装饰和家电。3）对于可选消费行业，人 民币升值或能带动业绩增长。 ➢ 3、 ...

2026年1月19日，艾媒新消费盛典暨"预见2026"张毅年度演讲的圆满举办，为新消费行业注入了强劲动力。除了备受关注的"2025中国国货消费品牌500 强"榜单揭晓，艾媒咨询CEO兼首席分析师张毅博士的演讲更是聚焦人群迭代与需求变革，深入剖析新消费下半场的核心增长逻辑，指出Z世代、新中产 与银发族三大人群将成为决定品牌生死的关键，为现场及线上观看直播的从业者提供了清晰指引。 在演讲中，张毅强调，随着消费市场从同质化竞争进入代际分层阶段，人群结构的重塑正在改写行业规则。过去"一款产品打天下"的时代早已过去，企业 必须聚焦核心人群，精准匹配其需求，才能实现高效增长。艾媒咨询数据显示，新青年群体消费优先级已明确为品质＞社交与精神需求＞实用功能，这一 变化也倒逼品牌重新审视自身的产品设计与营销策略。 三大核心人群中，逐渐成熟的Z世代虽不再是新生代主力，但仍占据重要市场份额。这一群体成长于物质丰富的时代，对消费的诉求早已超越实用功能， 更注重情感共鸣与自我表达，500强榜单中的华为、小米等品牌，正是凭借个性化的产品设计与年轻化的品牌沟通，收获了Z世代的青睐。 消费升级的中坚力量新中产，介于高端与大众市场之间，既追求品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund holdings in 2025 show a significant shift towards technology growth sectors, moving away from traditional consumer and financial sectors [9][10]. Group 1: Changes in Top Holdings - Ningde Times consistently ranked as the top holding throughout 2025, with a market value of 146.8 billion in Q1, 142.7 billion in Q2, 207.1 billion in Q3, and 181.9 billion in Q4 [3]. - Guizhou Moutai, a traditional consumer staple, saw a decline in its ranking and market value, dropping from second place at the beginning of the year to fifth by Q4 [10]. - Tencent Holdings maintained a relatively stable position, fluctuating between second and fourth place [10]. - Notable rises in rankings were observed for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, both of which entered the top ten in Q3 and continued to rise in Q4, indicating a strong interest in AI-related stocks [10]. Group 2: Changes in Industry Holdings - The electronics sector remained the top industry for public fund holdings across all four quarters of 2025, with investment values increasing from 518.9 billion in Q1 to 774.5 billion in Q4 [6]. - The food and beverage sector declined from second place in Q1 to seventh place by Q4, reflecting a shift in investor preference [12]. - The medical and biological sector, which ranked high in the first three quarters, was overtaken by the electric equipment and communication sectors in Q4 [12]. - The electric equipment sector improved its ranking from fourth to second place by Q4, while the communication sector rose from outside the top ten to third place [12]. - Non-bank financial and banking sectors experienced an overall decline in rankings, while the non-ferrous metals sector entered the top six in Q4 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund holdings in 2025 show a significant shift towards technology growth sectors, moving away from traditional consumer and financial sectors, with Ningde Times consistently ranking as the top heavy stock throughout the year [9][10]. Group 1: Changes in Top Holdings - Ningde Times maintained its position as the top heavy stock across all quarters, with a market value of 146.8 billion in Q1, 142.7 billion in Q2, 207.1 billion in Q3, and 181.9 billion in Q4 [3]. - Guizhou Moutai, a traditional consumer staple, saw a decline in its ranking and market value, dropping from second place at the beginning of the year to fifth by Q4 [10]. - Tencent Holdings remained relatively stable, fluctuating between second and fourth positions throughout the year [10]. - Notable rises in rankings were observed for technology stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which entered the top ten in Q3 and Q4, indicating a strong demand driven by AI computing needs [10]. Group 2: Changes in Industry Holdings - The electronics sector consistently ranked as the top industry for public fund holdings across all four quarters, with investment values increasing from 518.9 billion in Q1 to 774.5 billion in Q4 [6]. - The food and beverage sector declined from second place in Q1 to seventh place by Q4, reflecting a shift in investor preference [12]. - The medical and biological sector maintained a strong presence in the first three quarters but was surpassed by the electric equipment and communication sectors in Q4 [12]. - The electric equipment sector rose from fourth place at the beginning of the year to second place by Q4, while the communication sector made a notable leap from outside the top ten to third place [12]. - Non-bank financial and banking sectors experienced an overall decline in rankings, while the non-ferrous metals sector entered the top six in Q4 [13].

出品｜公司研究室 å文｜雪岩 据不完全统计，截至1月21日收盘时，A股共有587家上市公司披露了2025年度业绩预告。从净利润增幅上限来看，超五成上市公司业绩预喜（包括预增、略 增、续盈、扭亏）。 二级市场对个股业绩关注度升温，但 不少投资者不知道如何参与。目前，参与预喜机会的高效工具当属买进对应主题的投资基金。究竟哪些行业预喜公司 较为集中？哪些基金值得关注？应该如何买入？ 业绩预喜公司 主要集中在哪些行业？ 根据沪深两市业绩预告（尤其是2025年三季度及全年预告），A股预喜公司数量排名前五的行业是：电子、基础化工、汽车、医药生物、机械设备。这五大 行业的预喜公司合计数量，占目前已披露预喜公司总数的近56.6%。这主要反映了上述行业上市公司基数大、景气面广的特点。 从预喜率看，有色金属、钢铁、汽车、家用电器、基础化工这五大行业非常高。 此外，随着国家电网"十五五"期间投资4万亿更新设备的消息发布，电力设备&电网/核电相关公司成为市场热点。除了国家电网"十五五"投资预期升温，AI 数据中心高耗电推动核电采购（谷歌、微软、Meta布局），特高压、柔性直流输电项目落地也是重要原因。 业内人士分析，眼下正处于年报季 ...

在新会计准则(IFRS 9&17)框架下，OCI账户(以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益的金融资产)使 保险公司能够有效平滑波动、稳健利润表现，近年占比显著提升。家用电器核心标的具备高分红、低波 动的类债属性，深度契合险资OCI账户的配置逻辑，有望承接长期增量资金，实现估值中枢的稳步提 升。 三、险资流入家用电器行业资金量化测算 横向对比来看，家用电器的配置比例仍显著低于银行、非银金融及公用事业等板块，在"高股息"配置主 线内部具备较大的增配空间。该行预计2026年家电行业有望获得约960亿元险资流入，占100亿以上标的 市值之和的比例约为5.4%。保险扩容对家用电器行业核心资产形成显著的支撑效应。 中信建投主要观点如下： 一、险资入市比例逐步提升，深刻影响近年A股市场风格 近年来，为了支持资本市场良性发展，监管部门连续出台多项政策，明确鼓励保险资金增加权益类资产 的配置，推动保险资金对权益市场进行长期稳定的投资。政策引导下，保险资金在股票市场的配置规模 与比例均呈显著上升趋势。该行预计2026年保险投资入市资金将达到0.53万亿-1.33万亿元，系年内资本 市场的主要增量资金。 二、OCI账户快速扩容， ...

嘉实中证全指家用电器指数发起式A（018564）成立日期2023年6月1日，最新规模1494.4万。今年以来 收益4.56%，同类排名3037/5542；近一年收益17.85%，同类排名3504/4256；成立以来收益41.15%。 嘉实中证全指家用电器指数发起式A（018564）基金经理为刘珈吟。 截至发稿，刘珈吟累计任职时间9年307天，现任基金资产总规模2246.36亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 150.47%， 任职期间最差基金回报-31.37%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 1月22日，兆驰股份涨5.09%，截至发稿，报9.70元/股，成交6.35亿元，换手率1.50%，总市值439.11亿 元。 资料显示，深圳市兆驰股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市龙岗区布澜路128号兆驰集团大厦B座，成立日 期2005年4月4日，上市日期2010年6月10日，公司主营业务涉及家庭视听类及电子类产品的研发、制 造、销售与服务。主营业务收入构成为 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, Hangzhou's GDP reached 23,011 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.2% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Hangzhou was 569 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.8% for planting, 5.3% for forestry, 0.2% for animal husbandry, and 4.2% for fishery [2] - Major agricultural products included a total grain output of 599,000 tons (up 3.9%), vegetable output of 3,860,000 tons (up 3.6%), and fruit output of 900,000 tons (up 3.9%) [2] Industrial Growth - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,624 billion yuan, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 13.4%) and automotive manufacturing (up 36.7%) [3] - New quality productivity showed remarkable results, with high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, and high-end equipment manufacturing growing by 7.5%, 10.0%, and 9.5% respectively [3] - Production of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment saw explosive growth rates of 383.0%, 38.6%, and 15.1% respectively [3] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry was 16,997 billion yuan, with the profit-making service sector growing by 7.0% and financial services by 6.4% [4] - From January to November, the revenue of the service industry above designated size reached 21,168 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, with the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 13.4% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hangzhou reached 9,499 billion yuan, indicating a stable and upgrading consumption pattern [5] - The "8+4" economic policy led to significant growth in retail sales of household appliances (up 42.8%) and communication equipment (up 31.4%) [5] - Upgrading consumption demands were strong, with sports and entertainment goods growing by 45.3% and cosmetics by 12.3% [5] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value was 9,072 billion yuan, with exports at 6,469 billion yuan and imports at 2,603 billion yuan [6] - The export of electromechanical products reached 3,107 billion yuan (up 10.9%), and high-tech products reached 1,001 billion yuan (up 9.9%) [6] - The private economy accounted for 77.0% of total exports, with exports to Belt and Road countries growing by 14.1% [6] Living Standards - The per capita disposable income of residents was 80,017 yuan, with balanced growth across four income sources [7] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 86,640 yuan (up 3.9%), while rural residents had 53,565 yuan (up 5.4%), narrowing the income gap to 1.62 [7] Price Stability - In 2025, the consumer price index remained stable compared to the previous year, with six categories of goods experiencing price increases and two categories seeing declines [8] - Hangzhou aims to achieve a GDP of 30 trillion yuan and a per capita GDP of over 30,000 USD by 2030, focusing on policy coordination and market demand stimulation [8]

海尔智家（600690）(06690)公布，2026年1月21日耗资约883.84万元回购34万股A股股份。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting significant gains in technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, driven by supply shortages and price increases in CPUs and memory chips [1][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 21, the three major indices in the A-share market collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.70%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.53% [18]. - The total trading volume across the three markets was 26,240 billion, a decrease of 1,804.27 billion from the previous day, with over 300 stocks rising [18]. - A total of 91 stocks hit the daily limit up, with the maximum consecutive limit up reaching 16 [18]. Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a significant rebound, with domestic chip stocks surging. Notably, Longxin Technology hit the daily limit up, and several other stocks like Yingfang Micro and Tongfu Microelectronics also reached their daily limits [18]. - The increase in stock prices is attributed to a shortage in memory chips, with U.S. companies like Micron, Seagate, and SanDisk hitting record highs [18]. - Intel and AMD are expected to raise server CPU prices by 10%-15% in 2026, further driving interest in the semiconductor supply chain [2][18]. Group 3: CPU Demand and AI Impact - The demand for CPUs is projected to increase significantly due to the rise of AI agents, with estimates suggesting a need for up to 1,760,899 CPUs in optimistic scenarios for 2024, compared to a global shipment of 3,200 million CPUs [3]. - The article emphasizes that CPUs may become a bottleneck before GPUs in AI applications, as they are crucial for generating and evaluating tasks in reinforcement learning [11]. - A new paradigm proposed in the DeepSeek paper highlights the importance of CPU memory in handling large parameters, suggesting a shift in how AI models are structured [11][12]. Group 4: Material Costs and Industry Outlook - Japanese semiconductor material manufacturer Resonac announced a price increase of over 30% for PCB materials starting March 1, which could impact the overall cost structure in the semiconductor industry [12]. - Goldman Sachs projects a compound annual growth rate of 34% for optical modules from 2026 to 2028, with expected shipments reaching 94 million units by 2028, indicating a positive outlook for the optical communication sector [18].