Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.92% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 762.56 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,225.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.30% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Defense and Military Industry: increased by 0.23% with a transaction value of 37.55 billion yuan, up by 20.18% from the previous day, led by Beifang Changlong, which rose by 15.59% [1] - Computer: increased by 0.13% with a transaction value of 104.33 billion yuan, up by 7.78%, led by Yingjianke, which rose by 20.01% [1] - Steel: increased by 0.11% with a transaction value of 13.36 billion yuan, up by 43.02%, led by Guangdong Mingzhu, which rose by 10.06% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Automotive: decreased by 2.70% with a transaction value of 63.20 billion yuan, down by 5.67%, led by Riying Electronics, which fell by 9.66% [2] - Household Appliances: decreased by 2.20% with a transaction value of 17.35 billion yuan, down by 2.63%, led by Biyi Co., which fell by 6.05% [2] - Machinery Equipment: decreased by 1.85% with a transaction value of 86.77 billion yuan, down by 7.88%, led by Lvdiafeng, which fell by 9.07% [2]

分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 13 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 国庆中秋双节消费稳中有增 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（10 月第 2 周） [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率 ...

Group 1 - The stock market has experienced significant fluctuations post-holiday, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks all declining, prompting public fund analysts to suggest a defensive strategy in Q4 to lock in annual performance [1][2] - Historical trends indicate that sectors with high gains in the first three quarters typically underperform in Q4, as institutional funds tend to secure profits or shift to lower-risk investments to mitigate high volatility [1][2] Group 2 - The adjustment of margin financing rates has had a minor impact on the market, with certain stocks seeing their financing rates drop to zero due to high static P/E ratios, affecting market sentiment but not being the primary cause of the recent downturn [2][4] - Fund managers are accelerating portfolio adjustments in October to preserve annual returns, with a focus on balancing sector allocations and identifying rotation opportunities [4][5] Group 3 - There is a growing emphasis on technology and innovation, with expectations that companies with strong technological barriers and commercialization capabilities will validate market expectations through solid performance [3][7] - The shift in fund positioning towards cyclical sectors such as consumer goods, resources, and finance is anticipated, as these sectors are expected to outperform in Q4 based on historical performance data [6][7] Group 4 - The market is likely to see a dual-driven pattern of technology and cyclical sectors, with traditional resource stocks being viewed as a favorable investment opportunity amid improving liquidity and policy expectations [7][8] - The focus is shifting from emotionally driven market movements to fundamental growth, particularly for innovative pharmaceutical companies with strong product pipelines and market potential [7][8]

Consumer Macro Strategy - The report highlights three major events that influenced consumer market trends over the past two weeks, including stable growth in overall consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with a notable increase in outbound tourism but fewer domestic consumption highlights leading to a post-holiday decline in related sectors [3][10] - The Q3 earnings preview indicates that while the overall consumer service sector remains stable compared to Q2, consumption-related products face high base pressure in Q4, and other sectors are in a positioning phase after negative earnings surprises in Q3 [3][10] - The ongoing US-China technological competition is expanding into the consumer sector, with new tariffs announced by the US on imports from China, posing challenges for export-oriented consumer companies [3][10] New Consumption Manufacturing - The two-wheeler market showed strong performance in Q3, with healthy inventory levels in downstream channels, but the industry faces a critical test in Q1 2026 [21] - The pet industry is experiencing weaker performance in the off-season, but the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to act as a catalyst [21] Light Industry Manufacturing - In the home furnishing sector, domestic demand remains weak due to unhealed real estate issues, while external demand faces increased tariff risks, with significant tariff hikes announced by the US [24] - The new tobacco sector is seeing intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the US, benefiting legitimate brands, while HNB products maintain strong production schedules in Japan and Europe [27] - The packaging paper market is experiencing a bullish sentiment with frequent price increases expected [27] Textile and Apparel - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% in August, but sales weakened in September and during the National Day holiday due to weather conditions and timing changes [29] - The report suggests focusing on brands with unique market positions and those showing significant performance advantages in sub-sectors [29][30] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is recovering after a previous decline, with cosmetic retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in August, indicating a positive trend [31] - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands with strong performance and those undergoing successful reforms [31] Home Appliances - TV panel prices remained stable in early October, with various sizes maintaining consistent pricing [32] - Gree Electric's new product line aims to capture the online market segment, enhancing its competitive position [32][33] Retail and E-commerce - Offline retail shows signs of stabilization, with supermarkets performing well while department stores face slight pressure [34] - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, enhancing consumer acceptance and brand premium capabilities [34] Social Services - The report expresses optimism for high-value dining and the recovery of mid-to-high-end restaurants, alongside stable growth in tourism and education sectors [35] - The tea beverage market is expected to see a decline in performance due to policy impacts, with leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming showing growth potential [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly in the white goods sector, highlighting its undervalued status, high dividends, and stable growth potential [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of the fourth batch of government subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan, which is expected to stimulate consumer demand for home appliances through a trade-in program [10][74]. - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in October 2025 is projected to decline by 9.9% compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the market [11][3]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: white goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies, export opportunities driven by large customer orders, and core component manufacturers experiencing increased demand due to the overall industry growth [4]. Data Observations - In August 2025, the air conditioning sector saw a production increase of 9.4% year-on-year, with total sales declining by 1.0%. Domestic sales rose by 1.2%, while exports fell by 4.2% [34]. - The refrigerator sector reported a production increase of 3.4% and a sales increase of 2.1%, with domestic sales up by 5.9% and exports down by 0.8% [38]. - The washing machine sector experienced a production increase of 5.8% and a sales increase of 6.6%, with domestic sales growing by 0.6% and exports rising by 12.1% [39]. Industry Dynamics - The home appliance sector's performance is aligned with the broader market, as the home appliance index fell by 0.5%, mirroring the decline in the CSI 300 index [3][5]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with companies like Midea leading the air conditioning market with a 26.5% market share, followed by Gree and Haier [36]. - The report notes that the prices of key raw materials such as copper and aluminum have increased, while stainless steel prices have decreased, impacting production costs [13][18]. Company Developments - The report mentions significant movements in the stock market for key companies, with notable gains for companies like Biyu and Huaxiang, while others like Yitian and Sanhua experienced declines [7][5]. - Companies are actively engaging in share buyback programs, with Midea and other firms announcing substantial repurchase plans to enhance shareholder value [61][57]. Future Outlook - The washing machine market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching a market size of 30 billion yuan within five years, driven by increasing consumer awareness and government support [75]. - The report suggests that the home appliance industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for rapid growth as consumer preferences shift towards more advanced and efficient products [64][69].

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant increase in trading volume during the first week after the holiday, with an average daily turnover of 2.60 trillion yuan, marking the highest weekly average since early September [1]. Trading Volume Summary - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.60 trillion yuan from October 9 to 10, 2023, which is the highest since the week of September 5 [1]. - This trading volume is the second highest of the year, only behind the week of August 25 to 29 [1]. Active Stocks and Sectors - A total of 21 stocks had an average daily trading volume exceeding 10 billion yuan, with ZTE Corporation and SMIC surpassing 20 billion yuan [3]. - The most active sectors included electronics, power equipment, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals, with electronics accounting for nearly 40% of the active stocks [3]. Turnover Rate Analysis - Excluding newly listed stocks in the past month, 13 stocks had an average turnover rate exceeding 30%, with notable mentions being Dixin Long and Chuling Information at 42.44% and 41.68% respectively [6]. - The active stocks in terms of turnover rate were primarily from the power equipment, electronics, machinery, and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Sector Performance - The electronics sector continued to attract significant capital, maintaining an average daily trading volume of 542.7 billion yuan, consistent with pre-holiday levels [9]. - The power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors saw a notable increase in trading volume post-holiday, with the power equipment sector exceeding 300 billion yuan in daily trading volume over the first two days after the holiday [9]. - In terms of sub-sectors, digital chip design and consumer electronics components and assembly were among the top performers, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in average daily trading volume [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the electrical and electronic (E&E) industry regarding plastic recycling opportunities. Core Insights - The report focuses on the recycling value chain of durable plastics in the E&E sector in Malaysia, particularly from household appliances, highlighting the potential for market creation and attracting private sector investment [13][14]. - Approximately 70,000 tons of plastic waste are generated annually from discarded household appliances in Malaysia, with only about 20% of this waste being collected for recycling [14][36]. - The report emphasizes the need for nationwide collaboration to improve plastic recycling rates in the E&E sector [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - This report is part of the Malaysia Plastic Circularity Series, aimed at providing comprehensive insights into the plastic recycling economy in Malaysia, covering various sectors including E&E [12]. 2. Overview of Plastic Use and Waste in the E&E Industry - The E&E industry is the largest non-packaging user of durable plastics in Malaysia, accounting for 28% of plastic consumption in 2023 [16]. - Malaysia ranks among the top 10 countries for durable plastic recycling market potential, according to the IFC's scoring system [16][23]. 3. Challenges in Recycling Durable Plastics in Household Appliances - The household appliance sector generates significant plastic waste, primarily from polypropylene (PP) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), but faces challenges in collection and recycling [52]. - The lack of a formal collection system leads to an estimated 80% loss of plastic waste, which often ends up in landfills or is illegally burned [57]. 4. Global Initiatives to Enhance E&E Plastic Recycling - Some countries have established central entities to monitor and promote recycling activities, which could serve as a model for Malaysia [64]. - Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems have been implemented in various countries, holding producers accountable for the recycling of their products [65]. 5. Unlocking Recycling Value Opportunities - The report identifies several opportunities within the Malaysian household appliance sector to enhance the circularity of durable plastics [82].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the period after the National Day holiday is a traditional window for risk appetite to rise, with a significant increase in market win rates, particularly favoring technology growth sectors [1][2] - Historically, after the National Day holiday, the broad market indices show a notable increase in win rates, with growth styles being more dominant, especially in sectors represented by TMT, advanced manufacturing, and export chains [1][2] Group 2 - In October, the hardware segment within TMT is expected to outperform due to earnings disclosures, the concentration of new product launches, and the upcoming Double Eleven sales season [4] - The effectiveness of investment in sectors with favorable economic conditions is expected to increase in October, as the correlation between stock price movements and earnings growth improves as the third-quarter report disclosure period approaches [6] Group 3 - Since September, the industries with upward revisions in profit expectations are primarily concentrated in AI (gaming, computer equipment, communication devices, components), advanced manufacturing (motorcycles, aerospace equipment, home appliance components, batteries, medical services), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, glass fiber, steel, agricultural chemicals), consumption (beverages, dairy products, seasoning and fermentation products, pet economy, jewelry), and finance (brokerage, insurance, city commercial banks) [7][9] - The profit revision ratios and expected profit growth rates for various sectors indicate a strong performance in technology, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors, with notable companies highlighted in each category [9] Group 4 - The intensity of industry rotation is expected to converge in October, with a consensus forming around the economic growth themes as the market focuses on the clues from the third-quarter reports [10][11] - October is identified as a traditional window for the convergence of industry rotation intensity and market consensus, suggesting a structural focus on key themes for trading [10][11]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Private Enterprise Value Index (970072) closed at 3567.74 points, up 2.57%, with a trading volume of 86.68 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.08% [1] - Among the index constituents, 37 stocks rose while 13 fell, with ZTE Corporation leading the gainers at 9.51% and Shentong Express leading the decliners at 2.12% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen Private Enterprise Value Index include: - Midea Group (8.22% weight) at 72.63 yuan, down 0.04%, with a market cap of 558.01 billion yuan [1] - BYD (8.05% weight) at 110.60 yuan, up 1.27%, with a market cap of 1008.36 billion yuan [1] - ZTE Corporation (7.92% weight) at 49.98 yuan, up 9.51%, with a market cap of 239.08 billion yuan [1] - Muyuan Foods (7.24% weight) at 52.85 yuan, down 0.28%, with a market cap of 288.71 billion yuan [1] - SF Holding (4.81% weight) at 40.45 yuan, up 0.30%, with a market cap of 203.84 billion yuan [1] - GF Securities (4.80% weight) at 23.19 yuan, up 4.08%, with a market cap of 176.38 billion yuan [1] - Kelun Pharmaceutical (3.25% weight) at 36.06 yuan, down 1.82%, with a market cap of 57.63 billion yuan [1] - Zangge Mining (3.19% weight) at 61.22 yuan, up 4.95%, with a market cap of 96.13 billion yuan [1] - Dahua Technology (2.93% weight) at 21.20 yuan, up 5.21%, with a market cap of 69.68 billion yuan [1] - Xinhengcheng (2.83% weight) at 25.06 yuan, up 5.16%, with a market cap of 77.02 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 3.165 billion yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 755 million yuan [3] - ZTE Corporation had a significant net inflow of 302.8 million yuan from main funds, while it experienced a net outflow of 218.1 million yuan from retail funds [3] - BYD saw a net inflow of 89.4 million yuan from main funds, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 26.3 million yuan [3]