Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel mills' production remains high with a slight decline, but apparent demand continues to fall, and hot-rolled coil inventory starts to accumulate. Real demand decline is being realized, and the overall demand expectation is still weak due to the off - season and tariff impacts. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Global iron ore shipments are increasing, reaching a high level this year, and the arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron is relatively stable, and the inventory is still in a destocking pattern. In the short - term, the price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view in the medium - to - long term [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures show a volatile trend with a divergence between futures and spot. The third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of one more round of cuts. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at an appropriate time [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures are expected to rebound from the bottom, but the spot fundamentals are still bearish. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at a high price [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon production is increasing, and the supply pressure is rising during the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The ferromanganese supply pressure also exists, and the demand is weak. The cost side should focus on coal price changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show small fluctuations. For example, the price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remains unchanged, while the cost of some steel products has changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, and the rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a significant decline of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, a 2.9% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 to 1363.8, and the rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 to 570.5, a 1.8% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 to 340.6, a 2.4% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.2, a 1.8% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a 3.5% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract for most iron ore powders decreased significantly [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased, while the prices of some iron ore indexes increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, a 17.9% increase, and the global shipment volume increased by 242.3 to 3431.0, a 7.6% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a 0.3% decrease, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 to 987.0, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, a 14.0% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a 1.4% decrease [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton. The 09 contract price of coking coal increased slightly [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price decreased by 3.2 to 193 US dollars/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 to 873.0, a 1.4% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 to 445.0, a 1.9% decrease [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 to 818.9, a 3.2% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 to 770.9, a 2.0% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased by 70 to 5174, a 1.4% increase, and the ferromanganese主力合约 price increased by 14 to 5552, a 0.3% increase [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.2 to 5619.8, a 0.2% decrease, and the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 1.2 to 9.7, a 14.6% increase, and the ferromanganese production remained relatively stable [6]. Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon - chromium products increased by 0.2 to 17.2, a 1.2% increase, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 6.8, a 9.8% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises for ferromanganese increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the market trends and investment outlooks for various commodities on June 10, 2025, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to guide investors [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2508 closed at 774.72 yuan, down 1.09% [2][7]. - **Silver**: There was a technical breakthrough. The trend intensity is 2. The price of Shanghai Silver 2508 closed at 8909 yuan, up 0.70% [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of LME copper strengthened, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,910 yuan, down 0.03% [2][12]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a sideways consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20025 yuan, down 45 yuan [2][15]. - **Alumina**: It continued to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2892 yuan, down 9 yuan [2][15]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories increased, and the price was under downward pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 21910 yuan, down 2.12% [2][18]. - **Lead**: In the short - term, both supply and demand were weak, but it was bullish in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16765 yuan, down 0.09% [2][21]. - **Tin**: It stopped falling and rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 263,740 yuan, up 0.05% [2][25]. - **Nickel**: There was a game between real - world support and weak expectations, and the nickel price fluctuated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 122,710 yuan [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The negative feedback led to increased production cuts, and the steel price fluctuated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan [2][28]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related (not directly mentioned)** - **Fuel Oil**: The daytime session was weak, and it would enter an adjustment phase in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FU2507 closed at 2,927 yuan, down 0.54% [2][141]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly showed a fluctuating trend, and the spot price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the international market continued to rise. The trend intensity is 0. The price of LU2507 closed at 3,583 yuan, down 0.31% [2][141]. - **Coal - related** - **Coking Coal**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The price of JM2509 closed at 780 yuan, up 1.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Coke**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of J2509 closed at 1339 yuan, down 11.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand awaited release, and it fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The previous opening price of ZC2507 was 931.6 yuan [2][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There were large differences in the pressure from the producing areas, and it was bottom - grinding with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the palm - oil main contract closed at 8,182 yuan, up 0.89% [2][169]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force was temporarily weak, and it oscillated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the soybean - oil main contract closed at 7,766 yuan, up 0.36% [2][169]. - **Soybean Meal**: The weather was normal, and US soybeans closed down. Dalian soybean meal might follow the decline. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3019 yuan, up 28 yuan [2][174]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of DCE Soybean 2507 closed at 4138 yuan, down 4 yuan [2][174]. - **Corn**: It trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of C2507 closed at 2,357 yuan, up 0.90% [2][177][178]. - **Sugar**: It was in a low - level consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the futures main contract closed at 5734 yuan, down 1 yuan [2][183]. - **Cotton**: It continued to be affected by market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of CF2509 closed at 13,495 yuan, up 1.01% [2][187]. - **Eggs**: The industry still had a resistance sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Eggs 2507 closed at 2,837 yuan, down 1.18% [2][191]. - **Hogs**: Weight reduction had just started, waiting for confirmation from the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Henan's spot hogs was 13900 yuan/ton [2][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PK510 closed at 8,310 yuan, down 1.17% [2][196]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price stabilized, and the weak oscillation continued. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 260 yuan [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upward space was limited, and short - selling on rallies was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Si2507 closed at 7,475 yuan, up 185 yuan [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - selling on the futures was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of PS2507 closed at 34,105 yuan, down 635 yuan [2][36]. - **PTA**: Demand weakened, and the medium - term trend was weak. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the PTA main contract closed at 4602 yuan, down 1.1% [2][63][64]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the MEG main contract closed at 4256 yuan, down 0.1% [2][63][64]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract was 13,725 yuan, up 75 yuan [2][70][72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the butadiene - rubber main contract was 11,270 yuan, down 30 yuan [2][75]. - **Asphalt**: It followed crude oil and trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of BU2507 closed at 3,519 yuan, up 0.28% [2][78]. - **LLDPE**: It oscillated in the short - term and still faced pressure later. The trend intensity is 0. The price of L2509 closed at 7078 yuan, up 0.08% [2][89]. - **PP**: The spot price was stable, and there was just - in - time demand. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PP2509 closed at 6932 yuan, up 0.09% [2][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation was under pressure due to high profits. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 2308 yuan [2][97]. - **Pulp**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,394 yuan, up 114 yuan [2][101][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FG509 closed at 1006 yuan, up 1.31% [2][106][107]. - **Methanol**: It rebounded in the short - term, but the medium - term pressure was still large. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the methanol main contract closed at 2,277 yuan, up 4 yuan [2][109][110]. - **Urea**: It was in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the urea main contract closed at 1,697 yuan, down 23 yuan [2][114][115]. - **Styrene**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Styrene 2506 closed at 7,360 yuan, up 127 yuan [2][118]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The trend intensity is 0. The price of SA2509 closed at 1,202 yuan, down 0.91% [2][121][122]. - **LPG**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PG2507 closed at 4,116 yuan, up 0.44% [2][124][126]. - **PVC**: The trend still faced pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 4816 yuan [2][136]. Others - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 772 yuan, up 0.5% [2][58][60]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It oscillated at a high level; hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread. The trend intensity is 0. The price of EC2506 closed at 1,948.6 points, down 0.31% [2][143]. - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Short - Fiber 2507 closed at 6388 yuan, down 6 yuan [2][162]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Bottle - Chip 2507 closed at 5868 yuan, down 32 yuan [2][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It trended weakly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market was 4950 yuan/ton [2][166][167].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Current steel prices are affected by the rebound of coking coal. Steel mills are reducing production, hot-rolled coil inventory is increasing, and apparent demand is declining. Overall demand is expected to remain weak due to off - season demand and tariff - affected exports. Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with attention to short - selling opportunities around 3000 for the October contract of rebar and 3150 for the October contract of hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, demand remained relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. In the future, terminal demand for finished products may weaken, but iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient. Iron ore supply pressure will increase. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the range of 700 - 745 [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot market of coking coal was weak, and the market was still in a state of oversupply. Coke futures also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 6. The supply - demand pattern of coke was still loose in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 2509 contracts of both coking coal and coke and short after the rebound [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand remained relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction began to emerge as supply increased. For ferromanganese, supply increased slightly this week, and supply pressure reappeared under weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see for both, with attention to the price changes of coal [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed small increases. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3100 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar rose from 2952 to 2975 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2880 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions increased, and profits of rebar also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, a decrease of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a decrease of 3.1%; hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, an increase of 2.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.4, an increase of 4.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 to 229.0, a decrease of 7.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased from 122.4 to 63.6, a decrease of 48.0%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, an increase of 17.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8, an increase of 9.8%. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3, a decrease of 3.6% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - For coking coal, the price of the 09 contract rose by 22 to 779, an increase of 2.8%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 20 to 793, an increase of 2.5%. For coke, the price of the 09 contract rose by 15 to 1357, an increase of 0.6%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 10 to 1368, an increase of 0.7% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of coke decreased slightly, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke in all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, an increase of 14.04%, and the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 92 to 5104, a decrease of 1.8%, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 56 to 5538, an increase of 1.0% [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5631.0. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to - 329.0, a decrease of 17.9% [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 1.2 to 9.7, an increase of 14.6%. The weekly output of ferromanganese increased slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 68.7, a decrease of 9.8%, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 to 18.7, an increase of 0.34% [7].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pessimistic sentiment in the black commodities market is receding, leading to a bottom - up rebound. The glass and soda ash markets show a divergence between futures and spot prices due to cautious downstream procurement. The double - silicon market has a stabilized sentiment with alloy prices oscillating [1][3]. - Glass has a severe supply - demand contradiction with high inventory and lack of substantial production cuts. Soda ash faces continuous supply - demand surplus pressure and strong de - stocking pressure [1]. - For silicon manganese, low production due to profit issues and high inventory suppress prices, while manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron production is at a low level, but demand has some resilience, and short - term prices are affected by costs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures rebounded significantly yesterday, but spot trading was weak with mainly rigid demand procurement and low speculative sentiment. Soda ash: Futures rose sharply following black commodities, while downstream procurement was cautious with mainly rigid demand replenishment [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction is severe, high inventory suppresses prices, and there is no substantial production cut. Long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity, and later changes in production lines and raw material prices should be monitored. Soda ash: With new production projects coming online, the supply - demand surplus persists, and there is strong de - stocking pressure. Prices will be under pressure until the surplus situation eases, and attention should be paid to intermittent production line maintenance and new production [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating. Soda ash: Oscillating. No cross - period or cross - variety strategies are recommended [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Futures oscillated and rebounded with black commodities yesterday. The spot market was stable, and factories were reluctant to sell at low prices. The price in the northern and southern markets was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. Silicon Iron: Futures oscillated. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Production is at a low level due to industry profits, iron - water production has slightly declined but remains high, and demand has some resilience. High factory inventory and registered warehouse receipts suppress prices, while low - level manganese ore port inventory has slightly increased, and falling manganese ore prices support alloy costs. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side. Silicon Iron: Production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years due to enterprise losses, high iron - water maintains demand resilience, factory inventory de - stocking is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and short - term prices are affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating. Silicon Iron: Oscillating [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Although the apparent demand has recovered, molten iron production has been decreasing, and the output of finished steel products will follow suit. With the expectation of weakening demand, the apparent demand is likely to decline rather than increase in the future. Steel prices have been falling, reflecting the negative feedback logic under the expectation of declining demand. The continuous decline in molten iron production will suppress iron ore prices. - The direct export of steel will help digest production, and the short - term inventory pressure is not significant, which supports the steel production at a relatively high level. However, the cost support is weak, and the decline in carbon elements has dragged down steel prices. Considering the worse demand in the second half of the year, the overall trend is bearish. The iron ore is still in the destocking phase, and its price is relatively resilient, so the negative feedback trading may fluctuate. Once iron ore starts to accumulate inventory, the downward space for steel prices will expand [1]. Iron Ore - Last week, the global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Brazil and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The arrival volume remained at a relatively low level. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills also decreased slightly due to the marginal weakening of downstream demand in the off - season. - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline as the ore handling volume remained at a high level in the same period of history and the arrival volume was low in recent weeks. The steel mill inventory decreased significantly, mainly in large - scale steel mills. - Looking ahead, the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience. It is expected that the decline in molten iron production will be limited. Overseas mines will increase shipments to meet the fiscal year target, and the arrival peak has not yet come, so the supply pressure of iron ore will increase. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, but the risk of inventory accumulation is limited due to the resilience of terminal demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [3]. Coke - Last week, the coke futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, the second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on May 28, and there are expectations of two or more rounds of price cuts in the future considering the weak situation of coking coal. - On the supply side, due to the decline in downstream molten iron production and the slowdown in coke sales, the coke production decreased slightly, and the coking profit improved due to the concession of coking coal prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May and decreased slightly last week, and the blast furnace operation rate showed signs of peaking. - In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased slightly, the port inventory continued to decline, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The downstream replenishment demand has weakened due to the general caution in the market. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke (equal value) [4]. Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to decline. The futures market was more pessimistic than the spot market, showing a deep discount structure, with high hedging pressure and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price. - The market auction was cold, and the transaction prices of various coal types decreased slightly. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The price of Mongolian coal broke through the support level, and the import profit of seaborne coal remained negative, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. - On the demand side, the coking plant operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron production showed signs of peaking. Downstream users mainly replenished inventory on a need - to - basis. As the peak season of steel production is approaching the end, the demand may decline. The coal mine inventory is high, with pressure to reduce prices for sales, and the port inventory has increased again, while the downstream inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal (equal value) [4]. Ferrosilicon - On the supply side, due to the protection of a large factory in Inner Mongolia, the ferrosilicon production continued to shrink. With the continuous decline in spot prices, the losses of manufacturers increased, and the supply pressure remained. The cost may also decline, and the valuation continued to decrease. - On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. In terms of exports, the export profit of ferrosilicon increased slightly as the domestic price decreased faster than the overseas price, and the export volume remained stable. - In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. Looking ahead, the supply of ferrosilicon is expected to be weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Silicomanganese - The global manganese ore shipments decreased slightly last week, and the floating inventory was concentrated in South Africa and Ghana mines. The future arrival volume of manganese ore will remain normal. In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. - On the supply side, the production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly recently, and the profitability of manufacturers decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The demand for non - steel products, such as metal iron, was also weak. - The contradiction in the silicomanganese market is limited, but there is still a risk of cost decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of demand in the off - season in the black - series market, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products showed different trends. For example, the price of some steel products remained unchanged, while others increased or decreased. The price of rebar 05 contract increased by 147 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 41 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different steel products also varied. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 26 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 243.6 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 60,000 tons, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 329,000 tons [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for steel products showed some recovery. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 92,000 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 16,000 tons [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The price of PB powder decreased by 4.4 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 55.9 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 120,000 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 159,100 tons [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons, and the national pig iron monthly output decreased by 271,100 tons [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 7,800 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 171,200 tons [3]. Coke Price and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coke 09 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 8,100 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 5,700 tons [4]. Coking Coal Price and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1,600 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 1,400 tons [4]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 20,300 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 19,400 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. Ferrosilicon Price - The price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Gansu decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Guangxi decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons, and the production enterprise operation rate remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged, and the steel - making demand decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decreased by 1.6 days [5]. Silicomanganese Price - The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Ningxia decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Guizhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The silicomanganese production increased by 0.5 tons, and the operation rate increased by 2.9% [5]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand increased by 0.1 tons, and the steel - making demand increased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.5 tons, and the average available days of silicomanganese decreased by 0.2 days [5].

Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].