Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the financial market, including the performance of major indices and sector trends [4][12]. - It emphasizes the impact of government policies on various industries, particularly in the context of digital assets and environmental initiatives [6][8]. Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23, down 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% to 10378.55 [4]. - The report notes a total trading volume of 15,411 billion, with 3,227 stocks rising and 1,662 falling, indicating a slight contraction in market activity [12]. Industry Developments - Hong Kong has introduced a new digital asset policy, accelerating the ecosystem for stablecoin applications, with related stocks including Jingbeifang (002987) and Sifang Jingchuang (300468) [8]. - The offshore engineering equipment industry is being catalyzed by new policies, with companies like Hailanxin (300065) and Yaxing Maolian (601890) positioned to benefit [8]. - Platinum prices have surged to a 10-year high, significantly outpacing gold, with related stocks such as Gebijia (835438) and Guiyan Platinum (600459) highlighted [8]. Company Focus - Wenkang New Energy (688779) is focusing on the development of solid-state battery materials, achieving cumulative shipments of over 100 kilograms for some products [10]. - Zhongji Renjian (301508) has established a testing facility for new energy batteries, capable of meeting the demands for solid-state battery testing [10]. - Changliang Technology (300348) is actively researching digital solutions related to stablecoins [10]. Market Review and Outlook - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a slight contraction, with a notable performance in industrial metals and technology sectors, while banking and oil sectors are facing declines [12][13]. - The report suggests that the market is showing resilience, with strong support levels for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a lower probability of significant downturns in the short term [12]. - There is a strong interest in technology sectors such as chips and lithium batteries, suggesting a continued aggressive investment approach in these areas [13].

创业板指盘初涨超1%，深证成指现涨0.77%，工业金属板块领涨大盘。 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump mentioned that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, and the US would talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran was progressing "very smoothly", but the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities [8][17][27][28][30][34]. - The Fed's Powell mentioned on the first day of the congressional hearing that he did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut, which might lead to an earlier expectation of a domestic interest - rate cut [9]. - For the stock index futures, the bullish pattern continues. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong to support the index, and then may rise and fall after full fermentation. In the trend, a bullish view is maintained, and the more certain way for long - position investors is to reverse and advance layout when there are disturbances such as geopolitical factors [9][10]. - The over - capacity of offset printing paper is intensifying, and it will be in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year. The price of double - offset paper is still bottom - seeking, and if Chenming restarts production, the paper price pressure may increase. There may be seasonal restocking and consumption improvement from September to November. Overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain. The strategy is to short the processing profit after the futures are listed (long pulp, short double - offset paper) [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the cease - fire of geopolitical conflicts, and silver continues to rush higher. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][20]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1 [13][22][24]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level shock. Alumina rebounds slightly, and aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][25][27]. - Zinc: It is in range adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][28]. - Lead: It runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][30]. - Tin: It has a tight - reality and weak - expectation situation, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][32][35]. - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel - ore end is loose, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. Stainless steel has a marginal weakening in supply and demand, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][37][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The contradiction of warehouse receipts still exists, and the oscillating trend continues, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and it is in a short - term shock. Polysilicon continues with the idea of short - allocation on rallies. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [13][44][46]. - Iron Ore: The expectation fluctuates, and it oscillates in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [13][49][51]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 1 [13][52][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment is released, and they oscillate strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][55][57]. - Steam Coal: The demand still needs to be released, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][59][62]. - Others: Various products such as rubber, asphalt, and plastics have different trends such as oscillating strongly, weakly oscillating, and short - term oscillating [13]. 3.2 Market News and Data - **Precious Metals**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant macro and industry news [17]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as the start of a new copper smelter and production cuts by a Japanese company [22]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy: A large amount of data on prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences are provided, along with comprehensive news [25]. - Zinc: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of zinc futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [28]. - Lead: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [30]. - Tin: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of tin futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel are provided, along with macro and industry news such as production resumptions and suspensions in the nickel industry [37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, warehouse receipts, and relevant industrial chain data of carbonate lithium are provided, along with macro and industry news [41]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with macro and industry news [44]. - Iron Ore: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as steel inventory changes and production data [49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided, along with price and position - holding information [55]. - Steam Coal: The trading situation, prices, and position - holding information of steam coal are provided, along with domestic and foreign price quotes [60].

镍库存204360吨，增加432吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存93475吨，减少1200吨。 铝库存337900吨，减少2000吨。 ...

| CERE | | | 日度策略参 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 国内经济基本面支撑较弱,短期国内政策预期不强,海外扰动加 | | | | | 剧。 股指偏弱震荡为主,策略上结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 農汤 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 空间。 | | | 真金 | 看多 | 中东局势再度升级,或支撑金价;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | | | 白银 | 農汤 | 银价短期或偏弱震荡。 | | | | | 近期市场风险偏好反复,虽然国内下游需求进入淡季,但出口窗 | | | | 震荡 1 | 口打开情况下 铜库存有望进一步下滑,铜价短期维持高位震荡 | | | | | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑且库存水平偏低,挤仓风险仍存了6 | | | | | 铝价维持偏强运行。 氧化铝现货价格有所回落,但盘面价格更弱,期货维持贴水,限 | | | E 1 1 7 | 農汤 | 制下方空间。另一方面,冶炼端(现货)利润尚可,产量提升, | | | | ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged 27% this year, reaching a multi-year high, driven by dual demand from investors and industrial buyers [1] - Unlike gold, which is primarily used for wealth storage, 80% of silver demand comes from manufacturing, particularly from solar panel manufacturers [1][4] - The current spot price of silver is $35.94, with a 12% increase observed this month [1] Group 1: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand is the main driver of silver prices, with 80% of demand stemming from manufacturing [4] - Stable consumption of silver in cutlery and electronics, alongside strong demand from solar panel manufacturers, supports price increases [3][4] - Analysts warn that if prices rise excessively, manufacturers may switch to cheaper metal alternatives [3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Individual investors are increasingly purchasing silver, with the iShares Silver Trust ETF adding nearly 11 million ounces this year to meet demand [5] - The Honest Coin Shop in New Jersey has seen a 20% increase in customer traffic, primarily from investors hoarding silver to hedge against economic uncertainty [5] - Despite high prices, many customers continue to buy silver regularly, fearing they might miss out on the price surge [5] Group 3: Silver Coin and Jewelry Market - The rising prices have sparked a "silver rush" across the U.S., with people searching for old silver coins and items to sell [3][6] - The melt value of pre-1965 25-cent coins exceeds $6.50, significantly higher than their face value [6] - Customers are increasingly looking to sell inherited or unused jewelry and silverware, opting to liquidate their assets [8] Group 4: Historical Context - Analysts believe it will be challenging for silver prices to surpass the 1980 record of $48.70 per ounce, which adjusted for inflation would be over $200 today [8] - The historical context of price surges and subsequent crashes, such as the Hunt brothers' attempt to control the market, is relevant to current market dynamics [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emerging opportunities in Southeast Asia, driven by global supply chain changes and the growth of industries such as mining, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, despite potential setbacks from U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Economic Overview - The total revenue of the companies listed in the Southeast Asia 500 reached $1.82 trillion, reflecting a 1.7% increase from the previous year, which lags behind the reported 4.1% GDP growth of the seven economies covered [1] - Indonesia has the highest number of companies on the list (109), followed by Thailand with 100 companies, while Singapore leads in revenue generation with $637.1 billion, accounting for slightly over one-third of the region's total revenue [1] Group 2: Industry Leaders - The top five companies in the Southeast Asia 500 are all involved in commodity businesses, including Trafigura (metals), PTT (oil), Pertamina (oil), Wilmar International (agriculture), and Olam Group (agriculture) [2] - The energy sector dominates the Southeast Asia 500, contributing nearly one-third of the total regional revenue, with notable growth from Bangchak, a Thai energy company, which saw a 47% increase in revenue [2] Group 3: Profitability and Technology - The most profitable companies in the list are Singapore's three major banks: DBS, OCBC, and UOB, with DBS leading at $8.5 billion in profit [3] - Despite predictions of growth in the digital economy, technology companies have a small representation in the Southeast Asia 500, with only one tech company, Sea, in the top 20 [3] Group 4: Emerging Trends - NationGate Holdings, a Malaysian contract manufacturer, experienced a remarkable 723% increase in sales, surpassing $1 billion, largely due to its role as the sole assembler of AI servers for Nvidia in the region [4] - Southeast Asia's 500 companies are increasingly playing a significant role in the global supply chain, attracting substantial capital inflows and reshaping global trade dynamics [5]

Economic Outlook - Citi projects a significant slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year, potentially reducing global economic growth to 2.4% for the year [1][7] - The first quarter showed resilience in the global economy due to preemptive purchasing by U.S. consumers and businesses to avoid tariffs, but trade indicators are increasingly reflecting tariff-related pressures [2][3] - Global growth is expected to rebound slightly to 2.5% in 2026, as tariffs begin to impact economic activity [10] Trade and Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on economic activity remains uncertain, with limited transmission to U.S. consumer prices observed so far [4] - The U.S. effective import tariff rate is expected to stabilize around 15%, with the deficit potentially averaging close to 6% of GDP [4] - Many countries, including the U.S., Canada, the UK, China, ASEAN nations, Brazil, and Mexico, are likely to see slower economic growth compared to last year [10] Stock Market Strategy - The stock market is stabilizing against a backdrop of easing trade tensions, with major indices approaching levels seen before tariff increases [11] - The consensus for global earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2025 has been adjusted down to 8%, with a top prediction of 6% [11] - The strategy has shifted from tactical to structural bullishness on Europe, supported by increased fiscal spending and a divergence from the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative [11][12] Commodity Outlook - The short-term outlook for Brent crude oil prices is expected to fluctuate around current levels, with a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel due to OPEC+ supply control [15] - Gold prices are projected to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a peak expected in Q2 2025 [16] - Basic metals and lithium are viewed with a neutral to bearish outlook, with copper prices expected to fluctuate around $8800 per ton [17] Currency Outlook - A soft landing scenario is expected to be unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, with a potential shift in market expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve [18] - The forecast for the euro to dollar exchange rate has been adjusted to 1.20, while the outlook for the dollar remains bearish in the near term [19][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its industrial internet platform and is successfully implementing its "going out" strategy, with AI application scenarios accelerating [3][10]. - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 13.51 billion yuan in 2024 to 22.68 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.5% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 927.43 million yuan in 2024 to 2.13 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 28.4% in 2027 [4][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its market presence, with over 120 mature AI application scenarios developed and contracts worth 256 million yuan signed in 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections: 1,141 million yuan (2023), 1,351 million yuan (2024), 1,642 million yuan (2025), 1,947 million yuan (2026), and 2,268 million yuan (2027) [4][11]. - Net profit (attributable to shareholders): 62 million yuan (2023), 93 million yuan (2024), 126 million yuan (2025), 166 million yuan (2026), and 213 million yuan (2027) [4][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: 0.09 yuan (2023), 0.14 yuan (2024), 0.19 yuan (2025), 0.24 yuan (2026), and 0.31 yuan (2027) [4][11]. Market Data - The company's stock price has ranged between 7.01 yuan and 16.02 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 7,749 million yuan [5][10]. - The company has a total share capital of 678 million shares, with 423 million shares in circulation [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of 13.96 yuan based on a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 75 times for 2025 [10][12]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 125.43 in 2023 to 36.41 in 2027 [4][11].