Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the polysilicon industry. 2. Core View The polysilicon market is facing significant pressure on the demand side, with high inventory levels and a weak outlook. The supply side is experiencing reduced production due to low prices and high costs, while demand from downstream industries is also weakening. The introduction of new policies and a slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth are further dampening demand. The report recommends a short - selling strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The main contract closing price of polysilicon was 35,290 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the main contract position was 80,800 lots, up 2,449 lots. The 06 - 07 month contract spread was 2,100 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 27,850 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon was 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon was 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon was 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.29 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The basis of polysilicon was 410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The main contract closing price of industrial silicon was 7,440 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons, and the total social inventory was 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 5.01 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells was 78,444,000 kilowatts, up 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 95,373,120 units, up 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume was 9,846,120 units, down 2,122,260 units, and the monthly average import price was 0.27 US dollars/unit, up 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 22.29, down 0.62 [3]. 3.2 Market News As of May 26, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feed polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon were all stable [3]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - **Supply Side**: All polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. The anticipation of new production capacity is increasing, and most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash costs, with some even suspending the production line of delivery products [3]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream photovoltaic module production schedule has been reduced, and the demand has weakened. Silicon wafer enterprises have lowered their self - regulatory quotas, the price and production schedule of N - type silicon wafers have declined, and battery enterprises also have production reduction plans. After the "rush - to - install" boom in the terminal market, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low [3]. - **Policy Aspect**: Newly installed photovoltaics need to enter the electricity spot market starting from June 1, which has led to a decline in yields and a "531 rush - to - install" wave, but the demand is expected to enter a vacuum period in the third quarter [3]. - **Global Market**: The photovoltaic installation growth rates in major markets such as China, Europe, and the United States have slowed down, with only sporadic bright spots in regions like India and the Middle East [3]. 3.4 Key Focus There is no news today [3].

Group 1 - The stock price of Daqo Energy (688303.SH) has declined to 19.27 yuan, representing a drop of 1.98%, and is currently in a state of below the issue price [1] - Daqo Energy was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 22, 2021, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of 21.49 yuan per share, raising a total of 644.7 million yuan [1] - The company planned to use the raised funds for projects including the annual production of 1,000 tons of high-purity semiconductor materials and 35,000 tons of polysilicon, as well as for working capital [1] Group 2 - In 2022, Daqo Energy issued A-shares to specific investors, raising approximately 10.99 billion yuan at an issue price of 51.79 yuan per share [2] - The net proceeds from this issuance, after deducting issuance costs, amounted to about 10.94 billion yuan, which has been fully utilized by the end of 2023 [2] - The total amount raised by Daqo Energy from both fundraising activities is approximately 17.447 billion yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market price of polysilicon is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure. The downstream photovoltaic component production schedule has been reduced, the demand has weakened marginally, and the terminal market is in a wait - and - see state. There is also uncertainty in the overseas photovoltaic market, and polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Short - term short - long operations can be considered, while medium - and long - term high - short operations are recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 34,885 yuan/ton, down 1,205 yuan; the main contract position is 78,351 lots, up 3,922 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 1,105 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,275 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The basis of polysilicon is 410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, up 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is - 2,122,260 pieces, and the monthly average import price is 9,846.12 US dollars/piece, up 0.01 US dollars. The polysilicon sub - index of the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) is 22.29, down 0.62 [2] Industry News - The mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all temporarily stable. The Shanghai government has issued a consumption promotion plan. On the supply side, polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, but the expectation of new capacity release is increasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in a weak state [2] Viewpoint Summary - The polysilicon industry is facing challenges. Most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash costs, production enthusiasm is frustrated, and some enterprises have suspended the production line of delivery products. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is at a high level, suppressing the market price [2]

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅弱势不改，多晶硅即将进入首次交割 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，部分小厂计划进一步减产，但西南进入平水 期后整体开炉趋势增加，新疆大厂亦在复工复产，供给端压力 继续增加。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅较多厂已处于满 负荷生产状态，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需 采购。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9300-9500 元/吨。后续工业硅现货价格缺乏反弹动力。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 多晶硅现货价格小跌，市场消息混杂，小作文传言诸多低价成 交订单，建议对其为致密料/混包料、新货/老库存、大客户折 前价格/折后价格进行辨析。5 月多晶硅排产约 9.3 万吨，6 月 初步排产 9.1 万吨。但周五盘后市场传言某二三线硅料厂二期 产能有复产计划，根据后续进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82%, mainly due to cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. The basis weakened, and it is expected that price will be supported after inventory decline. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news, but its fundamentals remain poor [5]. - Looking ahead, for industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts still exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82% this week, with cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, industrial silicon futures and spot prices fell, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 8,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 735 yuan/ton. The operating rate remained stable, and production increased slightly but was still at a low level. As of May 23, 2025, the overall operating rate was 17.81%, and production was 72,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week [11][13][22]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, polysilicon futures prices fell significantly, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 33.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 3,510 yuan/g [15][19]. 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Raw Materials**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and the market price has fallen below the production cost of most manufacturers. Southwest regions have no intention to resume production due to losses [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 65,298 lots, a decrease of 1,233 lots from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [32]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rate continued to decline, and prices were low. As of May 23, 2025, weekly production was 39,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 59.31%, a decrease of 0.26%. Spot costs and profits remained flat, and production cuts to support prices had initial results [35][40][46]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices remained flat, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand. As of May 23, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 15,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons [48][53]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer prices fell, battery cell prices remained low and flat. After the end of the rush - installation period, polysilicon demand was dragged down. As of May 23, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.12 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.27 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [55][60]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon production remained flat, and industrial silicon prices fell, resulting in a weakening of production costs. In April 2025, the polysilicon production volume was 98,800 tons [62][67].

2025年1—4月，太阳能发电新增装机量达到104.93GW，4月单月新增装机45.22GW，基本为上半年 光伏装机史上月度最高水平。随着"430"、"531"抢装结束，光伏产业链上硅片、电池片、组件各环节价 格经历涨跌波动后目前均有持稳倾向，而多晶硅环节则在本已现金流亏损的状态下，于4月中旬再次进 入价格下行通道，行业困局再度深化，目前企业仍在积极采取应对措施。 从企业生产经营策略来看，部分企业选择了检修，部分企业开始产能置换。首先，在5月份内，多 晶硅生产企业数量由之前的13家减少至11家，对目前已经稳定低负荷生产的企业来说，再度调低生产负 荷一方面会带来产品稳定性等问题，另一方面则会一定程度上增加生产成本，因此这部分企业倾向于暂 停生产进行检修，且后续部分企业也将有新增停产检修计划。另外，目前头部企业正在积极进行产能置 换，用运行较为良好的小产线，替换已经生产一定时间的大产线，并对全年的预期产量进行了近10万吨 的显著下调。整体来看，多晶硅企业开工率的积极调整有利于当前供需矛盾的缓解以及未来市场预期的 稳定。 从行业库存数量来看，截至2025年4月底，我国多晶硅库存约为39万吨，如果按照目前下游消费情 ...

| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...