Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China and the implications of the US-China trade negotiations on the market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments - The A-share index has returned to pre-Qingming Festival levels, validating the "golden pit" investment opportunity, but the market is expected to enter a volatile phase with potential short-term pullbacks, although a second bottom is unlikely [1][2] - Substantial progress has been made in the first round of US-China tariff negotiations, but historical complexities suggest caution against excessive optimism [3][4] - A shift from high to low stocks was observed in late February, indicating a need for structural rebalancing in the market, with expectations for a second wave in the technology sector in May driven by the end of earnings season and AI industry catalysts [1][6][7] - April export data showed a decline in exports to the US by approximately 21%, highlighting the impact of trade tensions and the need to monitor high-frequency data for future trends [5][8] - Inflation data has been poor, primarily due to falling oil prices, indicating a demand contraction, while structural issues in the economy remain a concern [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recent negotiations in Switzerland have calmed market sentiments and may lead to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although the sustainability of any rebound in small-cap and tech stocks may be limited [4][11] - The increase in transshipment trade due to tariff pressures has led to rising costs, which could ultimately affect consumer demand [8] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate range, emphasizing the need for more data to support any future rate cuts, with the first expected cut now pushed to July [13] - The US PMI data indicates a divergence between manufacturing and services, with manufacturing showing signs of contraction, which could contribute to market volatility [14] - Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and central bank purchases, but short-term pricing logic may weaken due to US policy negotiations [15][16]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

证券研究报告 宏观 4 月全球 PMI:关税拖累开始显现 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 chenwei023580@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 图说全球 PMI | 2025 年 4 月 本系列为华泰宏观出品、全球 PMI 月度追踪系列的第二十二期。4 月全球制 造业 PMI 显示关税的影响开始显现，制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下，部分 新兴市场经济体回落较为明显；制造业新订单和新出口订单分项明显回落； 价格指标维持高位，产成品 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has reached its first trade agreement with the UK since initiating a tariff war, which includes partial tariff reductions and expanded market access for products [1][2] - The agreement is described as lacking substantial details and is more of a framework than a complete trade deal, with further negotiations required to finalize specific terms [4][6] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to 10%, while cars exceeding this number will still incur a 25% tariff [2] - The UK government announced $5 billion in new export opportunities for U.S. farmers and producers, including over $700 million in ethanol exports and $250 million in beef exports, with tariffs on U.S. ethanol exports to the UK reduced to zero [2] - A new trade alliance for steel and aluminum products has been established, with the UK stating that steel exports to the U.S. will no longer face tariffs [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the agreement, the previously announced 10% baseline tariff will remain in effect, indicating limited immediate economic relief [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the agreement does not significantly impact economic growth or address the initial goals of increasing U.S. fiscal revenue or promoting manufacturing return [7] - The overall trade relationship between the U.S. and UK is primarily focused on the services sector, which is not affected by tariffs, leaving the UK economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties [7] Group 3: Political Context - The urgency to announce the agreement reflects internal pressures within the Trump administration to demonstrate progress before potential economic downturns [4][5] - The UK government, post-Brexit, is also in need of trade agreements to solidify its political standing and achieve tangible results [5] - Following this agreement, the Trump administration has indicated that more trade agreements are forthcoming, although specifics remain to be seen [6][7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of service consumption as a key driver of economic growth, particularly in the context of China's ongoing economic transformation and the shift from goods to services [1][2][3]. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - During the recent "May Day" holiday, there was a significant increase in consumer activity, with 1.466 billion people traveling, a 7.9% year-on-year increase, and domestic tourism spending reaching 180.269 billion yuan, up 8% [1]. - Service consumption is becoming the main source of growth in household spending, with a notable shift from survival-based consumption to development and enjoyment-oriented consumption as GDP per capita exceeds 13,000 USD [1][2]. - In first-tier cities, while retail sales of consumer goods fell by 3.3% year-on-year, service consumption grew by 4.7%, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards services [1]. Group 2: Economic Strategy and Employment - Developing service consumption is a strategic choice to address economic downturns and promote high-quality economic development, particularly through labor-intensive service sectors [2][3]. - Expanding service consumption can enhance employment opportunities and increase household income, contributing to industrial transformation [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Consumer Experience - The article highlights the need for innovation in service consumption scenarios, with examples from the "May Day" holiday where unique experiences, such as night tours at the Great Wall, attracted tourists [4]. - The integration of advanced technologies like AI and big data is expected to create new service consumption models and improve service delivery, particularly in sectors like elder care [4]. Group 4: Supply-Side Improvements - There is a pressing need to enhance the quality of service supply to meet the growing demand, which includes reforms and increased openness in the service sector [3]. - The article stresses the importance of providing "time" as a service, advocating for policies that promote work-life balance and flexible vacation options to boost service consumption [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding service consumption to stimulate domestic demand and promote economic recovery [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Expansion - The capacity for service consumption is large and growing rapidly, but there is a lack of high-quality service supply in areas such as livelihood [1] - A series of practical measures will be proposed to optimize service supply and better meet diverse consumer needs [1] Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to implement a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement and Benefit the People" initiative [1] - Activities such as "Service Consumption Season" will be launched to create new hotspots for service consumption [1] Group 3: Strengthening Service Supply - The focus will be on expanding the opening up of the service industry, including orderly opening in sectors like telecommunications, healthcare, and education [1] - There will be an emphasis on expanding diversified service supply in key areas such as health, elderly care, and childcare [1] Group 4: Specific Initiatives - Initiatives will include skill upgrade actions for domestic service workers and promotional activities for the catering industry [1] - The introduction of "Silver Travel Trains" aims to cater to the elderly population, enhancing travel services to meet their needs [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight recovery in private consumption in Mexico, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2% in February 2025, despite external pressures such as tariffs and global demand slowdown [1][3] - The monthly growth in total consumption suggests short-term consumer spending momentum, particularly after a period of inflation easing post-Chinese New Year, although the year-on-year decline of 0.7% reflects ongoing economic challenges from 2024 [3][5] - The increase in domestic goods consumption by 2.1% and imported goods consumption by 2.7% indicates a structural demand for certain products, particularly in the home appliance, mobile accessories, and quality daily necessities sectors [6] Group 2 - The service sector's consumption growth of only 0.3% highlights insufficient local consumer confidence, which may pressure experience-driven categories such as beauty, fitness, and entertainment products [6] - The GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1 2025 marks a halt to the previous quarter's decline, suggesting that the Mexican economy is approaching a "soft landing" [6] - The current economic environment, characterized by modest growth, emphasizes the need for companies to understand local consumer preferences and adapt their strategies accordingly, focusing on emotional engagement rather than just discounts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has introduced measures to support small and micro enterprises in upgrading to larger-scale enterprises, aiming to enhance economic development and improve enterprise management and competitiveness [2][3]. Group 1: Support Measures - The new measures include 21 specific actions across seven areas, focusing on reducing burdens, lowering costs, and increasing vitality for small enterprises transitioning to larger ones [2][3]. - Key support initiatives involve strengthening incentive subsidies, promoting innovation, implementing tax reductions, facilitating financing, and ensuring resource availability [3]. - A service mechanism will be established for first-time upgrading enterprises, including regular meetings to address their needs and a lenient regulatory approach for initial violations [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Supporting the transition of small enterprises is crucial for stabilizing economic growth and enhancing future potential [3]. - There is an emphasis on encouraging enterprises that meet the revenue criteria but are not yet classified as large-scale to report their status, as well as assisting new enterprises in expanding production [3][4]. - A dynamic management approach will be adopted for nurturing small enterprises, with a target of identifying and supporting at least 1.2 times the expected annual growth in various sectors [4].

Group 1: Policy Overview - The core viewpoint of the article is that China has introduced a comprehensive set of policies to stabilize the economy amidst global uncertainties, focusing on monetary policy, regulatory reforms, and capital market support [1][4] - The policy aims to boost market confidence through five key areas: stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and strengthening technology [1][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is identified as a crucial pillar of economic confidence, with policies targeting both demand and supply sides [1] - On the demand side, the policy includes a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates and expectations of lower Loan Prime Rates (LPR), easing the mortgage burden on residents [1] - On the supply side, the policy accelerates the development of financing systems that align with new real estate models, addressing the reasonable financing needs of property companies [1] Group 3: Stock Market Stability - The stability of the stock market is emphasized as vital for the broader economic landscape and investor interests, supported by long-term capital and institutional safeguards [2] - Following the "924 New Policy" in 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2700 to 3400 points, indicating strong market resilience despite recent tariff disruptions [2] - The A-share market saw significant gains on May 7, with all three major indices closing higher [2] Group 4: Consumption Promotion - Structural tools have been implemented to stimulate consumption, which is key for expanding domestic demand [2] - A special quota of 500 billion yuan has been established for service and elderly care loans, encouraging banks to increase credit supply and activate demand in various service sectors [2] - The reduction of reserve requirements for auto finance and leasing companies aims to lower their liabilities, directly stimulating automotive consumption and equipment investment [2] Group 5: Foreign Trade and Technology - Policies to stabilize foreign trade include financial support, export insurance enhancements, and integrated domestic and foreign trade strategies [3] - The financing coordination mechanism now includes all foreign trade enterprises, providing tailored support to those affected by external shocks [3] - The bond market is fostering new productive forces by supporting the issuance of long-term technology bonds focused on sectors like AI, quantum technology, and biomedicine [3]

今年以来，国内一系列扩内需促消费政策发力显效，多地也酝酿出台新一轮提振消费专项行动。 5月7日，广东省人民政府办公厅发布关于印发《广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案》(简称《实施方案》)的通知，《实施方案》从8大方面提出31项政 策，全面提振消费。 《实施方案》提出，实施居民就业增收促进行动，其中包括推动工资性收入合理平稳增长，拓展财产性收入渠道等。在拓展财产性收入渠道方面，鼓励上 市公司推进员工持股计划。强化国企控股上市公司市值管理，稳定投资者回报预期。维护良好市场生态，严厉打击资本市场财务造假和上市公司股东违规 减持等行为。支持个人投资者投资交易所市场政府债券。推动柜台债券业务稳步扩容增量，拓宽居民债券投资渠道。丰富个人养老金理财产品。研究推动 通过出租、入股、合作等方式盘活利用农户合法拥有的住房。 此外，深化内外贸一体化改革试点，培育一批内外贸一体化试点企业、"领跑者"企业和特色产业集群，支持外贸企业打造内销品牌。大力实施"粤贸全 国"品牌工程，开展外贸优品中华行，促进外贸企业出口转内销等。 《实施方案》还提出实施消费环境改善提升行动，实施限制措施清理优化行动，其中提出有序减少消费限制。用好房地产调控自主权 ...