Core Viewpoint - The military conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran has escalated significantly, with no signs of a ceasefire, leading to widespread market volatility and potential investment opportunities amidst the chaos [1]. Group 1: Global Market Impact - The conflict has permeated global markets, particularly affecting energy, finance, and commodities, with Brent crude oil prices soaring nearly 13% to $82.37 per barrel, and WTI crude reaching $75.33 per barrel [2]. - Iran's threats of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant disruptions in global oil and LNG trade, affecting approximately 27%-30% of maritime oil transport and 20% of LNG trade [2]. - The conflict has resulted in a supply gap due to damage to Iranian energy facilities, which could interrupt daily exports of 1.5 million barrels [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Safe-haven assets like gold have surged, while global stock markets have experienced significant declines, particularly in South Korea, where the index fell over 6%, triggering a trading halt [3][4]. - The volatility in global currencies has intensified, with emerging markets facing increased capital outflow pressures as investors seek safety [4]. - The rising oil prices have escalated production costs for aluminum and other metals, with Iran's aluminum production capacity being over 800,000 tons per year, representing 2% of global capacity [4]. Group 3: Underlying Factors of Market Volatility - The rigid dependency on Middle Eastern energy and the monopolistic control of the Strait of Hormuz have amplified the conflict's impact on global markets, as many countries rely heavily on this route for energy imports [5]. - The rapid escalation of the conflict has led to a significant release of risk-averse sentiment among investors, resulting in a cycle of panic selling and further market declines [6]. - The inherent vulnerabilities in global supply chains and energy systems have allowed the conflict's effects to spread quickly, highlighting the reliance on Middle Eastern resources [7]. Group 4: Opportunities Amidst Challenges - The ongoing turmoil reflects a deep adjustment in global economic, energy, and financial landscapes, presenting both challenges and new opportunities for investors [8]. - The upcoming Changbai Mountain Forum aims to address these market changes, focusing on investment empowerment and the integration of tourism and culture, while providing insights into the long-term impacts of the conflict on the global economy [8][9]. - The forum will gather key industry figures to discuss strategies for navigating the evolving market landscape and leveraging potential growth areas in the context of the current geopolitical climate [9].

Core Viewpoint - Public funds predict that 2026 is likely to be a significant turning point for oil prices in the medium to long term, and gold is expected to break through $6,000 [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Predictions - The geopolitical fluctuations are expected to have a major impact on resource asset prices, particularly oil, with a focus on supply and strategic positioning [3]. - The global capital expenditure cycle for oil is at a critical juncture, with demand and supply curves set to intersect, indicating a potential mismatch in the medium to long term [4]. - Historical data shows that military conflicts have varying impacts on energy prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising significantly during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Public funds believe that gold prices will benefit from geopolitical tensions and are expected to rise significantly, with major financial institutions forecasting a potential breakthrough of $6,000 [5][6]. - Factors supporting gold prices include ongoing central bank purchases, the erosion of the dollar's long-term credibility, and systemic risks arising from geopolitical fragmentation [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "HALO" strategy emphasizes the importance of asset allocation based on industry cycles, suggesting that the revival in 2026 will be driven by new demand and barriers [7]. - Traditional safe-haven assets such as energy stocks, government bonds, and gold are recommended for hedging against current risks, while a diversified portfolio remains crucial for long-term investment success [7].

Group 1 - Samsonite (01910) fell over 5% as it announced plans for a dual listing in the US via American Depositary Shares (ADS), with new shares priced at a discount of no more than 15% from the last closing price, leading to an estimated net dilution impact of about 4.0% after accounting for treasury stock [1] - Alibaba-W (09988) dropped over 4%, reaching a new low of 128.5 HKD, with a cumulative decline of over 20% in the past month, following the resignation of the technical head of the Qwen team, which may be linked to organizational adjustments [1] - Dongfang Electric (01072) saw a significant increase of over 13%, attributed to a milestone order of 20 units of 50MW gas turbine generator sets from a Canadian client, with a unit price of 200 million RMB and a gross margin of 40-50% [1] Group 2 - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) rose by 3.15% as analysts noted that escalating conflicts in the Middle East could boost global military spending, positively impacting the valuation of missile, drone, air defense systems, and shipbuilding industries [2] - Mistral (02440) surged over 32% at one point, as it announced the launch of the world's first Pokémon trading card tokenized fund, expected to be available by March 2, 2026 [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) experienced a sharp decline of 22%, with a drop of 11.48% reported, following a significant decrease in oil tanker traffic through a critical global energy chokepoint, down over 95% from normal levels [2] Group 3 - Airline stocks fell again, with Cathay Pacific (00293) down 4.58%, Eastern Airlines (00670) down 3.66%, and China Southern Airlines (01055) down 2.48%, due to airspace closures in the Middle East following military actions, disrupting global flight operations [3] - Domestic insurance stocks continued their recent downward trend, with China Life (02628) down 6.46% and China Pacific Insurance (02601) down 4.25%, as analysts noted a lack of positive earnings forecasts from major insurers [4] - Oil stocks collectively declined, with CNOOC (02883) down 7.92% and PetroChina (00857) down 4.51%, following unusual trading activity and warnings about the uncertainty in international oil prices [4] Group 4 - US airline stocks saw a general decline, with United Airlines (UAL.US) down 0.65% and American Airlines (AAL.US) down 0.48%, as conflicts in the Middle East disrupted global flights, with major airports in Dubai and Doha closed for several days [5] - Chip stocks also fell, with Intel (INTC.US) down 5.27% and TSMC (TSM.US) down 4.33%, reflecting broader market concerns [5] - Gold and silver stocks experienced significant drops, with Gold Fields (GFI.US) down 11.58% and AngloGold Ashanti (AU.US) down 10.4%, as spot gold prices fell below $5020 per ounce [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted trade flows, forcing Iraq to cut oil production. The situation is evolving uncontrollably, and the supply - demand balance of crude oil has been disrupted, increasing the risk premium of SC oil [1]. - For fuel oil, due to high transportation costs, the supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases and greater market volatility [3]. - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of terminal projects after the holiday. Geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rise in BU prices and greater market volatility [4]. - For the polyester sector, due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic plants have reduced production preventively. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and the polyester sector is expected to follow the price increase [4]. - In the rubber market, global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in January 2026. The domestic rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season, and the probability of a smooth start of tapping in March is high. With the support of export orders, the opening rate is expected to recover, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - In the methanol market, the arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support prices. However, the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause significant price fluctuations [5]. - For polyolefins, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, and the fundamental pressure is not large. Geopolitical risks will push up crude oil prices, and polyolefins will follow the price increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [7]. - In the PVC market, supply remains high in March, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. Although there are positive expectations for exports, prices have low elasticity due to factors such as abundant supply and limited demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, due to the conflict, WTI April contract rose $3.33 to $74.56 per barrel, a 4.67% increase; Brent May contract rose $3.66 to $81.4 per barrel, a 4.71% increase. The domestic SC2604 contract rose 78.7 yuan to 641.1 yuan per barrel, a 13.99% increase. Iraq has cut its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, and may increase the cut to over 3 million barrels per day if the situation worsens. The idle capacity of Middle - East land pipelines cannot effectively compensate for the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 12% to 3473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 11.98% to 4112 yuan per ton. Supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from Northwest Europe will decrease in March, while high - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases and greater market volatility [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 rose 4.69% to 3639 yuan per ton. The asphalt market shows weak supply and demand in the short term. Geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rise in prices and greater market volatility [4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5608 yuan per ton, up 1.01%; EG2605 closed at 4025 yuan per ton, up 2.55%. Due to concerns about raw material supply, some domestic plants have reduced production preventively. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and the polyester sector is expected to follow the price increase [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 410 yuan to 16835 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 370 yuan to 13500 yuan per ton. Global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in January 2026. The domestic rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2505 yuan per ton. The arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support prices. However, the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause significant price fluctuations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7100 - 7200 yuan per ton. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, and geopolitical risks will push up crude oil prices, and polyolefins will follow the price increase [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high in March, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. Although there are positive expectations for exports, prices have low elasticity [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 4, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Two Iraqi oil officials said that due to the Iranian crisis, Iraq has cut its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, and may increase the cut to over 3 million barrels per day if oil tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz [10]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows that last week, US crude oil and distillate inventories increased, while gasoline inventories decreased. As of the week ending February 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 516,000 barrels [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][15][17][18][20][21][22][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [26][27][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [33][35][39][41][43][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The document provides line charts of the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and international markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [48][50][51][53] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [55][57]

Group 1: Market Overview - On March 3, major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.83%, the S&P 500 down by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.02% due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor panic [3] - European stock indices also experienced significant declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down by 2.75%, France's CAC 40 down by 3.46%, and Germany's DAX down by 3.44% as inflation concerns rose following a 1.9% year-on-year increase in the Eurozone Consumer Price Index [5] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices saw significant declines, with gold futures closing at $1,123.70 per ounce, down 3.54%, and silver futures at $18.473 per ounce, down 6.05% [8] - Crude oil prices increased by over 4%, with light crude oil futures closing at $74.56 per barrel, up 4.67%, and Brent crude at $81.40 per barrel, up 4.71%, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East [6] - European natural gas prices surged, with Dutch TTF natural gas futures rising by 21.98% to €54.290 per MWh, and UK gas futures increasing by 23.90% to approximately £1.41 per unit, influenced by production halts due to drone attacks on Qatari energy facilities [7] Group 3: Fund Performance - Blackstone Group's private credit fund faced significant redemptions, with $3.7 billion in redemption requests against only $2 billion in new subscriptions, leading to a net outflow of approximately $1.7 billion [4] - The company's stock price fell over 7% intraday, closing down 3.82% as a result of these developments [4]

霍尔木兹海峡牵动中东局势。 据最新消息，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军副司令穆罕默德·阿克巴尔扎德表示，霍尔木兹海峡已完全处于伊朗海 军的控制之下，十多艘油轮在该海峡被炮弹击中。另外，美国总统特朗普表示，如果有必要，美国海军将开始 护送通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮。 与此同时，特朗普还威胁称，目前伊朗"几乎所有军事能力都已被摧毁"，接下来将"承受更大打击"。受局势持 续升级影响，黄金、白银等贵金属价格直线拉升，现货白银日内一度大涨超4%，现货黄金一度涨超2%；国际 油价亦小幅走强。 "完全控制霍尔木兹海峡" 3月4日，据新华社消息，伊朗法尔斯通讯社3日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军副司令穆罕默德·阿克巴尔扎德 表示，霍尔木兹海峡已完全处于伊朗海军的控制之下，十多艘油轮在该海峡被炮弹击中。 阿克巴尔扎德说，革命卫队海军多次警告霍尔木兹海峡处于战争状态，任何船只都可能被炮弹或无人机击中。 但仍有十多艘油轮无视警告，已被炮弹击中并烧毁。 阿克巴尔扎德强调，在伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡禁止航行后，油轮、商船和渔船已无法通过该海峡。 此前，革命卫队指挥官贾巴里任何试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只都会被击毁，"我们不会允许一滴石油从该地 区流出"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial and commodity markets, including overnight market trends, important news, and future event schedules. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Persian Gulf and Iran, have a significant impact on energy, metal, and financial markets. The report also covers various industries such as energy, metals, agriculture, and finance, and provides data and analysis on market trends and policy changes [4][7][11] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices partially retraced gains, with WTI crude up 4.93% at $74.31/barrel and Brent crude up 4.79% at $81.2/barrel [4] - International precious metal futures closed sharply lower, with spot gold down 4.39% at $5088.65/ounce and spot silver down 8.17% at $82.06/ounce [4] - Most London base metals declined, except for LME aluminum which rose 2.52% to $3275.0/ton [4] - Most domestic futures contracts rose, with SC crude and fuel oil hitting the daily limit, and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 10% [4] Important News Macroeconomic News - Shipping operations in the Persian Gulf are disrupted, with over 150 cargo ships forced to anchor [7] - Iran bans the export of all food and agricultural products [8] - Shanghai International Energy Exchange restricts the intraday opening volume of certain futures contracts [8] - Qatar Energy stops production of some chemical products and metals [8] - French shipping group CMA CGM suspends booking services at some ports [8] - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi advocates resolving issues through dialogue [9] - There are reports that Iran's next supreme leader may be Hamenei's son, with a 77% probability [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - China's crude oil production and imports increased in 2025, with production at 2.16 billion tons (up 1.5%) and imports at 5.78 billion tons (up 4.4%) [12] - China will take measures to ensure energy security [12] - Indian companies cut gas supply to the industrial sector due to potential supply shortages [13] - Shanghai Futures Exchange restricts the intraday opening volume of fuel oil futures contracts [13] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of a Saudi refinery impact oil supply [13] - Some futures contracts' trading margins and price limits are adjusted [15] - Iraq's Rumaila oil field cuts production, and may cut more if the situation persists [15] - US President Trump provides political risk insurance for Gulf trade and may escort oil tankers [16] Metal Futures - China's primary aluminum production in February 2026 was 3.4658 million tons, up 3.31% year - on - year and down 9.71% month - on - month [18] - Aluminum prices may remain around $3300/ton in the next few weeks [20] - Six Chinese ministries issue guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [20] - Indonesia sets a nickel ore production quota of 260 - 270 million metric tons for 2026 [20] Black - Series Futures - Iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 1.393 million tons from February 23 to March 1, 2026 [22] - Steel social inventories in 21 cities increased by 14.2% in late February [22] Agricultural Futures - StoneX lowers the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.8 million tons, a 2.1% reduction [24] - US soybean crushing profit increased by 13.73% in the week ending February 27, 2026 [24] - China conducts a central reserve frozen pork purchase of 10,000 tons [26] - Chinese oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 7 million tons in March [26] - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in February is expected to drop to 2.63 million tons, a 6.52% decrease [26] - India's palm oil and soybean oil imports increased in February [26] - China's national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 32,000 tons from February 10 to March 3 [27] Financial Market Financial - Chinese A - shares and Hong Kong stocks declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.43% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.12% [29][30] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange initiates a "quality and return improvement" action [30] - A - share new account openings decreased in February, but margin trading new account openings increased year - on - year [31] - Goldman Sachs believes that Chinese AI assets are undervalued and have significant investment potential [31] Industry - Six Chinese ministries issue guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [32] - The National Energy Administration emphasizes energy supply and market construction [33] - China's primary energy production exceeded 5 billion tons of standard coal in 2025 [33] - Middle - East shipping is disrupted due to the tense situation [33] - The Eurasian Economic Commission initiates an anti - dumping review on Chinese bulldozers [33] - Shenzhen regulates urban renewal projects [34] Overseas - US President Trump submits a notice on military action to Congress, and Congress will vote on limiting presidential war powers [35] - The Fed's nominee for chairman will gradually shrink the balance sheet [36] - Some Fed officials suggest possible interest rate cuts if inflation eases [36] - Eurozone inflation accelerates, supporting the ECB's cautious stance on interest rates [36] - The SCO calls for ensuring Iran's sovereignty and security [36] - Canada and India aim to reach a trade agreement by the end of 2026 and increase bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030 [37] - High oil prices may drag down South Korea's GDP growth and increase inflation [37] International Stock Markets - US, European, and Asian stock markets declined due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [38][39][40] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suggest that the US stock market may need further adjustment [39] Commodities - Oil prices rose due to Middle - East geopolitical tensions [41] - Most domestic commodity futures rose at night, with energy products leading the gains [41] - Exchanges adjust trading rules for some futures contracts [41][42][43] - India has 25 - day oil and refined fuel inventories and is seeking alternative suppliers [43] - Hong Kong's MPF may invest in gold ETFs [44] - Qatar's energy production suspension impacts the commodity market, and aluminum prices may rise [44] - Goldman Sachs raises the forecast of TTF natural gas prices [44] - Most London base metals declined [44][45] Bonds - China's inter - bank bond market is strong, with short - term bonds performing well [46] - US Treasury yields rose [46] - China's central bank's monetary policy tools had net injections and withdrawals in February [46] - S&P expects the issuance of sustainable bonds in the Asia - Pacific region to remain stable or increase slightly in 2026 [47] - Japan's largest life insurance company increased its purchase of long - term Japanese government bonds [47] - Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. leads to a debt crisis and a rating downgrade [48] - The dim - sum bond market is booming, and its scale is expected to expand [49] - JPMorgan believes that the CLO spread may widen and issuance may slow due to the Iran conflict [49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, while the RMB central parity rate appreciated [50] - The People's Bank of China authorizes a bank in Sri Lanka as the RMB clearing bank [50] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies declined [50] Upcoming Events - A series of economic data releases are scheduled, including PMI data from various countries and regions [53] - Multiple events such as press conferences, product launches, and central bank speeches are planned [55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is strongly driven by geopolitical events in the short term, and short positions are recommended in the medium term [3] Core View - Trump's offer of insurance and naval escort for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz may increase the traffic volume, but the actual response of shipowners needs close observation. The upstream has started to cut production due to the long - term suspension of the strait. The interruption of the strait will conduct an extreme stress test on the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. If the suspension continues, more oil fields and refineries will shut down, resulting in a double - kill of supply and demand, and the spread of the energy crisis will pose unprecedented challenges to economies dependent on Middle - East energy imports [2] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.33, or over 4.67%, to $74.56 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14.34% in three consecutive trading days since February 26. Brent May crude oil futures rose $3.66, or 4.71%, to $81.40 per barrel. Middle - East Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil futures rose 1.58% to $79.79 per barrel. NYMEX March natural gas futures closed at $3.0540 per million British thermal units. NYMEX March gasoline futures rose 3.66% to $2.4574 per gallon, and NYMEX March heating oil futures rose nearly 9.88% to $3.1869 per gallon [1] - JPMorgan predicts that Iraq and Kuwait will be forced to shut down their crude oil supplies exported through the Strait of Hormuz in about 3 days and 14 days respectively. By the 8th day of the strait's closure, about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude oil production will be shut down, increasing to about 3.8 million barrels per day by the 15th day and about 4.7 million barrels per day by the 18th day [1] - Trump instructed the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and financial security for all maritime trade (especially energy) passing through the Gulf region at a reasonable price. The US Navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary [1] - The UAE is considering military action to stop Iranian missile and drone attacks. If the UAE attacks Iran, it will be unprecedented. The UAE has been the most attacked country by Iran since the conflict began [1] - Iraq has started to shut down the Rumaila oil field. If the situation continues, Iraq plans to cut production by 3 million barrels per day. Iraq has also stopped exporting crude oil from its semi - autonomous Kurdish region to Turkey's Ceyhan port [1] Investment Logic - Trump's measures may increase the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz, but the actual response of shipowners is uncertain. Upstream production cuts have begun, and Asian refineries are also reducing production. The strait's interruption will test the industrial chain, and a long - term suspension will lead to more shutdowns and pose challenges to energy - dependent economies [2] Strategy - The oil price is strongly driven by geopolitical events in the short term, and short positions are recommended in the medium term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected to face certain pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. - For the stock index market, the volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, market volatility is expected to significantly increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [12][13][14]. - For the steel products market, investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [15][17][20]. - For the energy market, the crude oil main contract is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities [24][25][26]. - For the chemical products market, polyolefins and some chemical products are expected to be bullish, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [27][38][39]. - For the agricultural products market, different products have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, while sugar is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [73][74][77][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.09% to 112.770 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01% to 108.500 yuan, the 5 - year main contract remained flat at 106.065 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% to 102.470 yuan [5]. - **Open Market Operations**: On March 3, the central bank conducted 34.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. With 526 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 491.7 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies to take effect. The global economic and financial situation is stable, and the global financial market risk appetite is high. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, and caution should be maintained [5]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [7]. - **New Account Data**: In February 2026, there were 2.523 million new A - share accounts opened, a 49% month - on - month decrease and an 11% year - on - year decrease. There were 239,700 new fund accounts opened, a significant decline from 546,300 in January. In February, there were 117,000 new margin trading accounts opened, a 20% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, core inflation continues to rise, and the policy environment is favorable. Market sentiment is rising, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. The global financial market risk appetite is high, and it is expected that overseas macro - disturbances will have limited impact. The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,182 with a decline of 1.27%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,645 with a decline of 11.40% [11]. - **Geopolitical and Economic News**: Trump submitted a notice to Congress regarding the military action against Iran on February 28. The eurozone's February CPI and core CPI data showed an increase [11]. - **Outlook**: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The medium - to - long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. The global economic and financial situation is generally stable, and geopolitical factors such as the Iran situation are expected to have limited impact. The previous sharp rise in precious metals has been fully priced in the market, and there is currently no significant fundamental driver. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [12][13][14]. 3.4 Steel Products (including螺纹, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦煤焦炭, 铁合金) - **螺纹 and 热卷** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,070 - 3,190 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was between 3,220 - 3,240 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and rebar demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market is in the off - season of demand. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, the weekly output of rebar is at a low level, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival was the lowest in recent years [15]. - **Outlook**: Rebar prices still lack bullish drivers but are at a low valuation. The fundamental logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [15][16]. - **铁矿石** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The port spot price of PB powder was 752 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 640 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of molten iron in the country has rebounded month - on - month, but steel mills may limit production during key meetings, which will suppress iron ore demand. In 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise and were at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [17]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may test the support near the previous low again. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17][18][19]. - **焦煤焦炭** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rebound [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The conflict between the US and Iran has a limited impact on the domestic coking coal and coke supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the main coal - producing areas have basically resumed production, and the supply side is gradually recovering. The demand side is generally weak. For coke, the supply side is stable, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises is not large. The daily output of molten iron in the country has rebounded month - on - month, but steel mills may limit production during key meetings, which will put pressure on the coke price. There is an expectation of a price cut for coke spot [20]. - **Outlook**: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20][21]. - **铁合金** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 1.16% to 6,118 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.12% to 5,786 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin manganese - silicon increased by 50 yuan/ton to 5,850 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,350 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased to 107,900 tons in the week of February 27. The supply of Australian ore gradually returned to normal, and the port manganese ore inventory increased by 650,000 tons to 4.95 million tons. The main - producing area electricity price and the prices of coke and semi - coke were stable. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuated slightly at a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills in the week of February 27 was 1.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month. The output of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron increased by 3,600 tons and 600 tons respectively compared with the previous week. The weekly output was at a relatively low level in the past five years, and the short - term over - supply situation was slightly alleviated, but the supply surplus still led to inventory accumulation [22][23]. - **Outlook**: The current cost has limited downward space at a low level, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening. Since 2026, the output of ferroalloys has remained at a low level, and the demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [23]. 3.5 Energy (including原油) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil closed at the daily limit again due to the ongoing Middle East war [24]. - **Market News and Data**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. The US and Israel launched a large - scale joint military strike against Iran, and the Middle East situation has escalated. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April [24]. - **Outlook**: The increase in CFTC net long positions indicates that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. OPEC's production increase is less than expected and cannot fill the gap left by Iranian crude oil. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows signs of escalation, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports oil prices. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities in the crude oil main contract [24][25][26]. 3.6 Chemical Products (including聚烯烃, 合成橡胶, 天然橡胶, PVC, 尿素, 对二甲苯PX, PTA, 乙二醇, 短纤, 瓶片, 纯碱, 玻璃, 烧碱, 纸浆) - **聚烯烃** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase. The geopolitical risk and the increase in international oil prices led to a high - level speculation atmosphere in the market. The拉丝 mainstream price was between 6,950 - 7,200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in the Yuyao market increased by 200 - 400 yuan/ton [27]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, affected by macro - policies, the increase in crude oil prices provides strong cost support for PE and PP. Although the production enterprise maintenance has decreased after the holiday, downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. Driven by the macro - sentiment, the mentality of industry players has improved. It is expected that the polyolefin market price will be bullish in the short term. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - **合成橡胶** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 3.64%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 13,800 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by the conflict, the synthetic rubber price may rise in the short term. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the post - holiday demand recovery. On the raw material side, butadiene may rise driven by crude oil this week, and the price is significantly affected by cost. On the supply side, most butadiene rubber plants maintained high - load operation this week, and only the load of an individual butadiene rubber plant in Shandong decreased slightly. In addition, the butadiene rubber plants of Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Chuanhua are expected to be overhauled in March. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered slightly at a low level. On the inventory side, as of February 25, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [28]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **天然橡胶** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 1.55%, the 20 - rubber main contract fell 1.75%, and the Shanghai spot price was adjusted down to around 16,100 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekend conflict may drive the short - term rise of natural rubber through the transmission from crude oil to synthetic rubber. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the fundamentals of natural rubber, especially the inventory situation from March to April. On the supply side, the global main - producing areas have entered the seasonal low - production period, and the output is in short supply, and the raw material price continues to strengthen. On the demand side, enterprises have resumed work as planned after the holiday, and the tire capacity utilization rate is in the recovery stage. On the inventory side, the domestic natural rubber inventory continued the pre - holiday inventory accumulation trend, and the inventory accumulation was mainly concentrated in Qingdao [31]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [32]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.49%, the spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the basis remained basically stable [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas geopolitical risk has brought supply concerns, which conflict with the domestic seasonal demand off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory trend. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of PVC plants increased by 0.01% this week, and the PVC output increased by 0.01% month - on - month. On the demand side, as of February 26, 2026, the start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 13.60%, a month - on - month increase. On the cost - profit side, the supply of US dollar - denominated ethylene is insufficient, which has an obvious supporting effect on the US dollar market. For calcium carbide, the demand support is unstable, and the sentiment of expecting a price decline in calcium carbide is strong, and the short - term market is difficult to improve. The inventory of the PVC industry increased significantly this period. The inventory of the PVC industry (upstream + social) increased by 1.72% month - on - month, and the factory inventory and social inventory increased simultaneously this week [33][34]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [35]. - **尿素** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 0.38%, and the price in Linyi, Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The conflict in Iran has a direct impact on the urea market supply. As the world's second - largest exporter, Iran has shut down many factories due to the conflict, and Egypt has also stopped production, resulting in a hard gap in global production capacity. This has led to a possible sharp increase in international fertilizer prices within a week, and the gap cannot be quickly filled. For China, although the domestic supply and demand are stable, large buyers such as India and Brazil will be forced to turn to China for emergency procurement, opening an export arbitrage window for Chinese enterprises. However, it is currently the spring plowing season, and there is no export for the purpose of stable production and supply. In the short term, it may be bullish and oscillating. The biggest risk point in the future lies in the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. If it

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 4 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：能化板块继续大涨，持续关注热点机会 原油：SC 夜盘涨停。以色列和美国军队对中东某国境内多个目标发动了袭击， 这导致伊朗在波斯湾地区进行了报复性打击。随着冲突蔓延至黎巴嫩，局势进一 步紧张。伊朗已对霍尔木兹海峡地区的能源基础设施和油轮发动袭击，该海峡是 全球五分之一的石油和液化天然气运输通道。伊拉克作为 OPEC 第二大产油国， 将其日产量削减了近 150 万桶。由于危机导致无法出口的原油储存空间即将耗尽， 这一削减幅度可能在几天内进一步翻倍。沙特石油阿美石油公司正试图将部分原 油出口改道至红海，以避开霍尔木兹海峡。 甲醇：甲醇夜盘上涨 4.8%。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃装置平均开工负荷在 80.88%， 环比持平。本周期内受烯烃装置运行稳定影响，导致国内 CTO/MTO 开工整体稳定。 截止 2 月 26 日，国内甲醇整体装置开工负荷为 78.24%，环比下降 0.19 个百分 点，较去年同期提升 5.13 个百分点。整体沿海公共库区甲醇提货量显著缩减， 而进口船货陆续到港卸货入库，因此沿海甲醇库存稳中上升。截至 2 月 26 日， 沿海地区 ...