1. Overall Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an industry - wide investment rating. 2. Core Views Steel - The black futures market weakened recently. In the short - term, the steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the roll - over period, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It was previously recommended to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be held. However, due to limited terminal demand, chasing long positions should be done with caution [1]. Iron Ore - The 2509 iron ore contract showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend last week. In the future, the average daily hot metal production in August will remain high but is expected to slightly decline to around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel prices may rise due to production restrictions, which will reduce iron ore demand but provide valuation support. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Coke - The coke futures rebounded from the bottom last week, and the price fluctuated sharply. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented, and there may be further increases. Supply is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses, while demand from blast furnaces provides support. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coke contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom last week, and the spot market is generally stable and slightly stronger. The supply is tight, and the demand for replenishment from downstream is continuous. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coil declined from 3460 yuan/ton to 3449 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel - making processes increased, such as the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar rising by 6 yuan/ton to 3175 yuan/ton. The profits of most regions and varieties increased, like the East China hot - rolled coil profit rising by 5 yuan/ton to 248 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The average daily hot metal production decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 240.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.8 tons to 869.2 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The rebar production increased significantly by 10.1 tons to 221.2 tons, a growth of 4.8%, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 tons to 1375.4 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The rebar inventory rose by 10.4 tons to 556.7 tons, a growth of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 tons to 356.6 tons, a rise of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The average daily building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.7 tons, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 tons to 845.7 tons, a drop of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 tons to 210.8 tons, a growth of 3.6%, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 tons to 306.2 tons, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder dropped from 819.5 yuan/ton to 816.2 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port declined from 773.0 yuan/ton to 770.0 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 tons to 2507.8 tons, a rise of 11.9%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 tons to 3061.8 tons, a decline of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 tons to 10594.8 tons, a growth of 8.0% [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 tons to 240.3 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume increased by 19.1 tons to 321.9 tons, a rise of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 tons to 7190.5 tons, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 tons to 8318.4 tons, a decline of 3.9% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 tons to 13712.27 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 tons to 9013.3 tons, a rise of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coke varieties were stable or slightly decreased. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1668 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1734 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The average daily coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 tons to 65.1 tons, a rise of 0.4%, while the average daily production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.8 tons, a decline of 0.44% [6]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 tons to 240.3 tons, a decline of 0.2% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 tons to 907.2 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 tons to 69.7 tons, a decline of 5.34%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 tons to 619.3 tons [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coking coal varieties were stable or slightly increased. For example, the price of Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1139 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1070 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 9.7 tons to 859.0 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 5.1 tons to 439.0 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is supported by the stable coking plant operation and the high - level but slightly declining hot metal production [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.8 tons to 112.0 tons, a decline of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 tons to 987.9 tons, a decline of 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 tons to 808.7 tons, a rise of 0.6% [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: The US economic data continues to be weak, and precious metals are oscillating upward. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, and precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, with the medium - to long - term allocation logic remaining unchanged [2][3]. - **Black Metals**: The inventory increase of steel has expanded, and the futures and spot prices of steel and iron ore have continued to be weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4][5][6]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Glass production is expected to decrease, with short - term price expected to oscillate within a range [9]. - **Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The prices of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by various factors such as macro policies, inventory, and demand, with expected short - term oscillations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The spot market is weak, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil, asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products is complex, with most products expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Attention should be paid to the guidance of the August USDA and MPOB supply - demand reports. The prices of various agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, and grains are affected by factors like weather, supply - demand, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last week, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 786.90 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 7279 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The news of the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold triggered a sharp rise in the COMEX premium. The US economic data continued to weaken, with the July ISM non - manufacturing index at 50.1. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 90% [3]. - **Outlook**: Precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, and the medium - to long - term allocation logic remains unchanged. Next week, focus on the July US CPI data [3]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures and spot markets of domestic steel continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. The inflation data in July improved, and market sentiment recovered to some extent [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Real demand continued to weaken, with the inventory of five major steel products increasing by 230,000 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption continuing to decline. Steel supply was at a high level, with the output of five major steel products increasing by 17,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of rebar increasing by 100,000 tons [5]. - **Cost and Outlook**: The price of coking coal strengthened, and the cost support for steel remained strong. Steel prices are recommended to be treated with an interval oscillation mindset in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and real demand was weak, with the hot metal output expected to further decrease [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There were increasing rumors of production restrictions in the northern region [6]. Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass remained stable week - on - week. There are expectations of production cuts due to macro anti - involution policies [9]. - **Demand**: The terminal real estate industry remained weak, but demand improved slightly, with the downstream deep - processing orders at 9.55 days at the end of July, increasing month - on - month [9]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels decreased week - on - week. The glass price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals Copper - **Macro Factors**: Tariffs have basically been implemented, and the US - China 90 - day tariff truce agreement may be extended. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased significantly. The Comex copper inventory is at a multi - year high, and the terminal demand may weaken marginally [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of aluminum fell last Friday, affected by the decline in alumina. Alumina production remained high, with increased in - plant inventory and a large accumulation of warehouse receipts [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened recently, with domestic social inventory increasing by 100,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 130,000 tons compared to the low in late June [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Cost**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts [10]. - **Demand**: It is in the off - season, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [10][11]. Tin - **Supply**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mining end is expected to be more relaxed [11]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [11]. Carbonate Lithium - **Supply**: The Fengxiawo Mine has stopped production, which is a short - term positive for supply. The production and inventory pressure are accumulating [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the north and south regions has increased, with a weekly output of 79,478 tons, an 8.1% week - on - week increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: It is a key anti - involution industry, with expectations remaining. The spot price provides support, and the short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Trends**: The US - Russia peace talks are ongoing, and the market expects the Russia - Ukraine conflict to ease. The spot market is weak, and the demand for crude oil is expected to decrease while supply increases [14]. - **Outlook**: There is long - term pressure on crude oil prices [14]. Asphalt - **Cost and Market**: The cost support of asphalt is weak due to the falling crude oil prices. The spot market is average, with low - to - medium trading volumes and limited inventory reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Asphalt will continue to maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. PX - **Market Situation**: Short - term PTA device production has been cut, and PX devices are also operating at a limited capacity. The PXN spread is around 260 US dollars, and the PX outer market is at 831 US dollars. It will oscillate in the short - term [14]. PTA - **Market Indicators**: The PTA basis has continued to decline slightly, and downstream operating rates have increased slightly. The processing fee is low, and some major devices have cut production [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to balance in August, and PTA will maintain an interval oscillation [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventory has decreased slightly to 516,000 tons, but the expected import volume will increase, and domestic device operating rates will recover [16]. - **Outlook**: It may show a situation of slightly increased supply and demand in the short - term and maintain an oscillation [16]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the weakening of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has accumulated slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term [16]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are concentrated maintenance in the supply of methanol, and the demand in the inland region is boosted by the restart of olefin plants, while the port is weak due to olefin maintenance and increased imports [16]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with obvious regional differentiation, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. PP - **Supply - Demand**: The cost - profit of PP has improved, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in mid - to late August. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory has increased [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract price fluctuation may be limited, and the 01 contract is still considered weak [17]. LLDPE - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Indicators**: The net short position of soybean funds in the CBOT market has increased significantly. The US weather is favorable for crop growth, and new soybean sales are cold [18]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the August USDA supply - demand report. Soybean exports may be adjusted downward, and the price is expected to be under pressure [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories have continued to increase, and the spot market is weak. Soybean meal is traded around the cost logic, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: The spot trading of soybean oil has improved, and there is a supply - tightening expectation in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have increased in July, and exports are weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the price is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short - term [19]. Corn - **Supply**: Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, with sufficient supply expected. The spot price is stable in August [19]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rebounded over the weekend. There is reluctance to sell at low prices, and the supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn [20].

铁矿周报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 关注限产影响 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3213 | 10 | 0.31 | 9240311 | 2947936 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3428 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - Newman powder's latest price is 767, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 4; its import profit is -31.77 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 770, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -11.03 [1] - Macfie powder's latest price is 760, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -2.67 [1] - Jinbuba powder's latest price is 742, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -3.08 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder's latest price is 697, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -12.10 [1] - Super special powder's latest price is 647, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -15.13 [1] - Carajás powder's latest price is 873, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -48.05 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder's latest price is 809, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 19; its import profit is -3.21 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6's latest price is 760, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG's latest price is 765, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate's latest price is 865, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 9 [1] - 61% Indian powder's latest price is 731, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Karara concentrate's latest price is 865, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 10 [1] - Roy Hill powder's latest price is 740, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -5.37 [1] - KUMBA powder's latest price is 830, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - 57% Indian powder's latest price is 592, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Atlas powder's latest price is 692, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate's latest price is 958, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 31 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - i2601's latest price is 773.5, with a daily change of -1.0 and a weekly change of 16.5; its monthly spread is 16.5, with a daily change of -2.3 and a weekly change of -4.7 [1] - i2605's latest price is 753.0, with a daily change of 0.5 and a weekly change of 19.5; its monthly spread is 20.5, with a daily change of -3.8 and a weekly change of -7.7 [1] - i2509's latest price is 790.0, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of 7.0; its monthly spread is -37.0, with a daily change of -0.3 and a weekly change of 4.8 [1] - FE01's latest price is 102.06, with a daily change of 0.15 and a weekly change of 3.17; its monthly spread is 0.19, with a daily change of -3.9 and a weekly change of -2.5 [1] - FE05's latest price is 100.04, with a daily change of 0.18 and a weekly change of 3.13; its monthly spread is 2.02, with a daily change of -3.1 and a weekly change of -2.8 [1] - FE09's latest price is 102.25, with a daily change of 0.45 and a weekly change of 2.49; its monthly spread is -2.21, with a daily change of -4.8 and a weekly change of -4.0 [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report: Demand Resilience Remains, Iron Ore Ranges Sideways" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current overseas mines are in the shipping off - season, and the demand side has strong resilience, which supports the iron ore price. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [4] Summary by Directory 1. Supply - **Global Shipping Volume**: From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 139,100 tons week - on - week to 3.0618 million tons. The shipping volume from non - mainstream regions increased by 74,800 tons week - on - week to 597,900 tons [4][50] - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.7212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,300 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 742,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,600 tons [4][47] - **Arrival Volume in China**: From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 267,300 tons week - on - week to 2.5078 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.2531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,800 tons [4][59] - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of August 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 62.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%; the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 39,160 tons per day, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the previous week [75] 2. Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03%; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%; the daily average hot metal output decreased by 3,900 tons week - on - week to 240,320 tons, but the demand resilience remained [4][78][95] - **Transaction Volume**: The daily average trading volume of iron ore forward spot and the total trading volume at major Chinese ports are presented in the report, but specific data trends are not described in detail [80] - **Steel Product Output and Consumption**: The output and consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils are shown in the report, but specific data trends are not described in detail [83][85] 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 13.71227 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,370 tons. The inventory of Australian ore was 6.1381 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,250 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 4.87207 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [4][25][29] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.01334 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,250 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 20 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [4][43] 4. Strategy - Go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Commodity Term Structure Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures the state of commodity contango and backwardation using the roll yield factor, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their roll yields - Go long on commodities with the highest roll yields and short on those with the lowest roll yields - **Evaluation**: The model has shown good performance recently, particularly in the industrial metals and agricultural products sectors[23][24] Model 2: Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures medium to long-term trends in domestic commodities using multiple technical indicators, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify trends in commodity prices - Rank commodities based on their trend strength - Go long on commodities with the strongest upward trends and short on those with the strongest downward trends - **Evaluation**: The model has underperformed recently, with significant losses in the black and energy chemical sectors[33][35] Model 3: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals using the inventory factor, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify inventory levels for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their inventory changes - Go long on commodities with the largest inventory decreases and short on those with the largest inventory increases - **Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with significant losses in the agricultural products sector[39][41] Model Backtesting Results Commodity Term Structure Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 1.69%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.09%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Glass (1.27%), PVC (0.32%), Rubber (0.31%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Sugar (-0.16%), PTA (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.25%)[30] Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -1.22%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.17%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Soybean Oil (0.26%), LPG (0.16%), Soybean Meal (0.07%)[37] - **Top Detractors**: Rebar (-0.28%), Soda Ash (-0.30%), Cotton (-0.33%)[37] Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -0.56%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.42%[39] - **Top Contributors**: Corn (0.54%), Polypropylene (0.27%), Nickel (0.22%)[43] - **Top Detractors**: PVC (-0.26%), Cotton (-0.39%), Soybean Oil (-0.46%)[43]

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年8月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：碳元素再度吸收钢铁链利润，矿价窄幅震荡 | | 最近一周切片数据 条目 | 当周值 | 环比 | 同比 | | YTD累计发运数据 31W2025 | 31W2024 | 累计同比 | 累计同比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 全球发货量 澳发货量 | 3061.8 1721.2 | -139.1 -72.3 | -7.2 -89.0 | 全球发货 | 93740.7 | 93365.8 | 374.9 | 0.4% | | | | | | | 澳发货 | 54562.6 | 55061.7 | -499.1 | -0.9% | | | 巴发货量 | 742.7 | -141.6 | 17.0 | 巴发货 | 22390.5 | 22433.5 | - ...

Group 1 - The Albanese government unexpectedly approved Chinese investment in Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources, marking a shift in its previous stance against foreign investment in critical mineral projects [1][3] - Canmax Technologies, a Chinese battery mineral supplier, will acquire nearly 2% of Liontown for approximately AUD 50 million, while the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation also invested AUD 50 million in the same company [1][3] - The approval of Canmax's investment indicates a softening of the government's previous informal ban on Chinese investments in key mineral projects, which had been in place for most of Albanese's term [1][3] Group 2 - Liontown's spokesperson emphasized the strategic value of a diversified investor base, stating that the financing plan could attract various international investors [3] - The investment from Canmax is part of Liontown's AUD 266 million financing plan aimed at improving its balance sheet [1][3] - The Australian government plans to support critical mineral producers, particularly in rare earth projects, to reduce Beijing's dominance in the supply chain [3][5] Group 3 - China is the largest producer of most critical minerals, which are essential for global energy transition and military equipment manufacturing [4] - Fortescue, an iron ore exporter, announced it secured a loan of 3 billion RMB from several Chinese banks, marking the first time an Australian company has obtained a RMB-denominated syndicated loan [7][8] - The fixed interest rate for Fortescue's loan is 3.8%, the lowest cost of debt in the company's history, indicating a strong alignment with Chinese partners [9]