1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, equity index futures declined, while most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise [10][11][12] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has increased the uncertainty of oil supply reduction and duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [16][19] - The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and geopolitical tensions remain a strong disturbance to heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - The Europe route remains in a trend of rising both supply and demand, with spot freight rates bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [29][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 9, equity index futures declined (IF dropped 1.1%, IH dropped 1.0%), and CGB futures also declined (TL dropped 1.13%, T dropped 0.22%). Most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil among the top gainers, and Tin, Palladium, and Platinum among the top decliners [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 9, the crude oil main contract rose 17.0% to 771.8 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty. If tensions persist, near-month contracts may have more upside potential; if tensions ease, prices may peak and decline, but it's unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels quickly [16][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On March 9, the fuel oil main contract rose 17.0% to 4548 yuan/ton. The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated, disturbing heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On March 9, the main contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 20.0% to 2236.4 points. The Europe route is in a supply-demand growth trend, with spot freight rates rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [28][29][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - In February 2026, China's PPI fell 0.9% YoY (decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points) and rose 0.4% MoM. The CPI rose 1.3% YoY, with urban prices rising 1.4%, rural prices rising 0.9%, etc. G-7 finance ministers will discuss a coordinated release of oil reserves [36] 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges issued risk alert letters due to complex and volatile Middle East situation. Exchanges also adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading limits, and trading commissions for various futures contracts [41][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Iran situation has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, with the price breaking through $100 on March 9 and reaching nearly $120, causing panic in the global market and a classic scenario of rising oil and the US dollar while other assets decline [1][2] - The private credit crisis triggered by BlackRock's redemption restrictions has put pressure on the insurance industry, and there are concerns about a 2008 - style systemic risk [1][2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and the Fed's potential policy shift will have a profound impact on various asset classes [3] - The US - Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will shock the global economy, and the decline of US stocks may negatively affect US consumption [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic and Financial Situation - On March 9, due to the escalation of the Iran situation, the oil price opened above $100 and reached nearly $120, and the financial market showed a pattern of rising oil and the US dollar while other assets fell [1][2] - BlackRock's redemption restrictions have triggered a private credit crisis, and the insurance industry, which has about one - third of its investments in this area, is under pressure. The insurance bond spread has widened significantly, and there are fears of a systemic risk [1][2] - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks at the fastest pace since March last year, and warnings from financial figures such as JPMorgan's CEO and Bridgewater's founder indicate concerns about the market [2] - The Fed's potential policy shift, including the expected policy of the Fed's nominee chair Wash, will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets, and there may be a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] Geopolitical Impact on Oil - The attack on Iran's energy facilities, including a refinery in southern Tehran and oil depots, and the potential disruption of the Kharg Island could lead to a significant reduction in oil supply, with a total loss of at least 5 million barrels per day and over 8 million barrels per day including refined products [1] - Saudi Arabia has redirected some oil exports to the Yanbu port, but the increase in net flow is far below the theoretical limit [1] Impact on the US and Global Economy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on global economic and various asset classes [3] - The US - Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will shock the global economy, and the decline of US stocks may have a negative impact on US consumption [4] - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is on a downward trend due to the US's wrong policies [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting a target price of 37.33 CNY per share based on a 25x PE valuation for the fiscal year 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) sector, focusing on asset management and risk management as core business strategies. The report highlights the company's strategic shift from traditional brokerage services to a comprehensive financial services model, which includes asset management, risk management, and financial technology [8][15]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 21.58 billion CNY, 24.22 billion CNY, and 25.60 billion CNY for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. This represents year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 12.2%, and 5.7% [8][15]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in the CTA asset management sector, with a notable increase in profitability and a high percentage of successful product returns, indicating a robust market position and growth potential [8][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has transformed from a full-license futures company to a comprehensive financial group over more than 30 years, holding various financial licenses and planning to acquire a stake in ShenGang Securities to enhance its securities capabilities [15][16]. Business Review - The company's main business segments include futures brokerage, asset management, and risk management, with a focus on developing CTA strategies to meet the growing demand for institutional asset allocation [21][54]. - Financial performance has shown a clear cyclical pattern, with revenue and net profit growth driven by the CTA asset management business and market expansion [25][26]. CTA Strategy - The company has developed a strong CTA business, leveraging its expertise in derivatives to create a differentiated product offering that meets the needs of investors seeking risk management and value enhancement [54][58]. - The report notes that the company's CTA products have achieved high profitability ratios, with significant returns and low drawdowns, making them attractive to investors [54][56]. Profit Forecast - The financial forecast indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with specific figures for 2025, 2026, and 2027 outlined in the report [8][15].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing high volatility, leading to increased trading activity and capital accumulation in the futures market, which supports a positive outlook for the fundamentals of futures companies [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity and Market Performance - In January and February 2026, the total trading volume in the national futures market reached 1.415 billion contracts, a year-on-year increase of 26.91%, with a total trading value of 155.85 trillion yuan, up 55.18% year-on-year [1]. - January alone saw a trading volume of 912 million contracts, a 65.09% increase year-on-year, and a trading value of 100.26 trillion yuan, up 105.14% year-on-year [1]. - February recorded a trading volume of 503 million contracts, a decrease of 10.60% month-on-month, but the trading value still increased by 7.82% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Financial Metrics - As of the end of January 2026, the total open interest in the national futures market was approximately 51.86 million contracts, a month-on-month increase of 14.65% and a year-on-year increase of 36.4% [2]. - By the end of February 2026, total open interest was about 50.22 million contracts, a month-on-month decrease of 3.20%, but still up 8.9% year-on-year [2]. - The average month-end open interest for the first two months of 2026 showed a year-on-year increase of approximately 21.3%, indicating a significant rise in margin utilization and client capital accumulation compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Revenue and Profitability - In January 2026, the overall operating data of 150 futures companies showed an agency trading volume of 100.15 trillion yuan and a trading volume of 967 million contracts, with operating income of 4.828 billion yuan and net profit of 1.775 billion yuan [2]. - Compared to January 2025, these figures represent a year-on-year increase of 104.8% in trading volume, 66.2% in trading volume, 74.9% in operating income, and 215.3% in net profit [2]. - The increase in trading activity and capital utilization has led to a significant release of revenue and profit elasticity in the industry [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The elasticity of profits in the futures industry is on an upward trajectory, particularly in the context of increased volatility in commodity prices [4]. - The correlation between brokerage fee income and agency trading volume is strong, while interest income is more dependent on the scale of client margin and equity accumulation [3]. - The expected growth rates for brokerage fee income and interest income are projected to be 40%-60% and 20%-30% year-on-year, respectively, based on current data [3].

Group 1 - The core suggestion is to support Hong Kong in becoming a leading global gold market, enhancing its pricing power in the international gold market by establishing a RMB-denominated gold pricing benchmark in collaboration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. - The proposal includes creating a "green channel" for H-shares to return to A-shares, simplifying the approval process for companies that meet strict disclosure and governance requirements in Hong Kong [3][4]. - There is a recommendation to promote the listing of emerging market enterprises in Hong Kong, particularly targeting markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia, to position Hong Kong as a preferred entry point for international companies into mainland China [3][4]. Group 2 - The suggestion to integrate Hong Kong International Airport's international flights into an "air-rail intermodal" system aims to enhance connectivity with mainland high-speed rail networks, facilitating seamless travel for passengers [4][8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong's unique advantages under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework, which includes its common law system and status as an offshore RMB hub, making it a strategic player in the global gold market [7][9]. - The need for Hong Kong to align its development with national strategies is highlighted, indicating a shift from passive integration to proactive engagement in national development goals [6][5]. Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for Hong Kong to serve as a bridge for international enterprises entering the Chinese market, leveraging its dual listing system (A+H shares) to facilitate cross-border investments [7][15]. - It mentions the importance of optimizing the listing system in Hong Kong to attract high-quality tech companies, suggesting specific pathways for emerging sectors like artificial intelligence and quantum computing [15]. - The integration of financial services with national economic needs is emphasized, proposing various financial products and services to support the transition to a high-quality economy [9][14].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a stage of improving supply and demand, with an obvious trend of fluctuating upward, despite the lack of a strong bull - market driver [1]. - The international sugar market has emerging positive factors, but the upward movement of sugar futures prices is restricted. The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of last Friday, the basis price of machine - picked cotton 3129B with less than 2.6% impurity in the northern Xinjiang warehouses was around 1300 - 1450 yuan/ton, and the basis price of the same - grade resources in southern Xinjiang's Aksu and other regions was about 20 - 30 yuan/ton lower. The delivery price in northern Xinjiang was mostly maintained at around 16550 - 16750 yuan/ton during the week [1]. - The operating rate of textile enterprises has recovered, but the new orders of downstream textile enterprises are average. The price of raw cotton has corrected, and textile enterprises purchase in appropriate amounts according to demand, with better market transactions than the week before last [1]. - News of Sino - US contact is released, which is beneficial to economic and trade negotiations and provides a certain framework for the subsequent demand for cotton [1]. Sugar - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, India's estimated output is lowered, Thailand's sugar production is lower than the initial estimate of the season, and in Brazil, the ethanol - to - sugar premium and the possibility of a lower sugar - making ratio in the new season make positive factors in the international sugar market emerge. However, the futures price is suppressed by a large number of speculative short positions and its upward movement is blocked [2]. - A significant increase in crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil, indirectly benefiting the price of raw sugar [2]. - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4003 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5085 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar is 1527 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 445 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand. Since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is not large, the price difference between the domestic and international markets continues to widen after the domestic market strengthens. Rising crude oil prices are conducive to Brazil increasing ethanol output, changing the "sugar - ethanol ratio" and reducing sugar output [2].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 9, 2026 [3] Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on March 9, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, SC crude oil, etc., hit the daily limit. Methanol rose over 11%, palm oil rose over 6%, and caustic soda and coking coal rose over 5%. In terms of declines, Shanghai tin and palladium fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of decline [5][6] Capital Flows - As of 15:19 on March 9, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2603 (5.594 billion), CSI 300 2603 (2.496 billion), and CSI 500 2603 (2.195 billion). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (1.324 billion), coking coal 2605 (945 million), and 10 - year treasury bond 2606 (755 million) [6] Market Analysis Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened low and weakened during the day. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, possibly reaching a record high. The recycled copper market is tight, and smelting is difficult. Downstream demand is increasing, but inventory is still accumulating. The copper price is affected by macro and financial factors and is expected to be weak in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed higher, showing a volatile and strong trend. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The开工 rate dropped, and the production in February decreased significantly. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate is narrowing. The terminal demand is affected by the Middle East conflict. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. EIA data shows that US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Middle East situation is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The price of crude oil is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [11][12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply side: the开工 rate increased slightly last week, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to rise with the crude oil price, and attention should be paid to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials [13][15] PP - The downstream开工 rate of PP increased, and the enterprise开工 rate decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate is at a neutral - high level. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [17][18] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased. The PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate increased. The export situation improved, but the inventory is still high. The price is expected to be strong and volatile due to policy and cost factors [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and hit the daily limit, then opened the limit in the afternoon. The mine开工 rate increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation, and the follow - up trend depends on the duration of the conflict [21] Urea - Urea opened with a daily limit and then fell back. The spot market is affected by the Middle East conflict. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season. The price is expected to be stable after the market sentiment calms down [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coke market will continue its rebound in the short - term. It's advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy, while paying attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average and the pressure near the previous high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Analysis of Coke - Coke supply has slightly decreased this week. In the Tangshan market, coke enterprises are mostly maintaining the production restriction rhythm, and the environmental protection production restriction policy during the important meeting still suppresses the operating rate of coke enterprises [1]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 17 yuan/ton this week. However, steel mills have limited profits and maintain cautious procurement [1]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - During the important meeting, blast furnaces in the Tangshan area are under production restriction. The iron - making water output of steel mills has decreased week - on - week. The profitability rate of blast furnaces of 247 steel mills has decreased by 15.15% year - on - year, and the average daily iron - making water output has decreased by 5.69 tons week - on - week to 227.59 tons, reaching a new low for the year [1]. 3.3 Upstream Coking Coal - The inventory at the mining end of coking coal has been continuously accumulating, while the inventory in the middle and lower reaches has been continuously declining. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal has dropped to a 4.5 - month low, lower than the level of the same period in previous years [1]. 3.4 News - The central bank will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Shanjie, supports mergers and acquisitions and restructuring to solve the problem of "involution - like" competition [1]. - The government work report mentioned "anti - involution" again, and there are still policy expectations in the market [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil and meal markets showed a differentiated trend. The sharp rise in crude oil drove up the price of U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean oil couldn't fully absorb the crushing profit, so soybean meal took on the cost increase and once hit the daily limit. The expected state reserve release at the end of the month will lead to inventory reduction in the next two weeks, with stronger spot prices and a significantly stronger domestic futures market than the overseas market. However, due to the large increase, the spot basis has significantly shrunk, and those with inventory in the spot market can consider appropriate hedging to lock in profits [1]. - The sharp rise in the oils and fats sector was mainly driven by the re - pricing of the uncertainty of Middle East supply security in the energy market rather than supply - demand factors. In the short term, crude oil market volatility will remain high, and geopolitical factors will dominate the next direction. Before there is an obvious signal of cease - fire in the Middle East conflict, the market should be treated as relatively strong [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Consulting firms AgroConsult and AgResource Brasil predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 183.1 million tons and 182.43 million tons respectively, higher than previous expectations, mainly due to good harvests in some states despite a decline in Rio Grande do Sul due to drought and high - temperature weather [1]. - As of the week of March 4, rainfall significantly improved the soybean moisture conditions in some areas of Argentina, supporting crop growth and relieving the previous drought pressure. Currently, 74% of soybean crops are rated normal to good (same as a week ago, compared with 80% last year), and 67% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions (lower than 69% a week ago and 79% last year) [1]. Oils and Fats - Statistics Canada reported that the intended planting area of rapeseed in Canada in 2026 would reach 21.8 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. But considering factors such as the sharp rise in rapeseed prices, the surge in fertilizer costs, and changes in the international trade environment, farmers are re - evaluating the planting structure, and the actual rapeseed planting area may be higher than the statistical forecast [2].

Core Viewpoint - The volatility and risks in the crude oil market are increasing, prompting exchanges to implement measures to mitigate risks and stabilize the market [1][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) has announced adjustments to trading limits, price fluctuation limits, and margin requirements for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [2][4]. - Starting from March 10, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for crude oil futures contracts will be set at 20%, with a margin requirement of 21% for hedging positions and 22% for general positions [4]. - The INE has also set a maximum daily opening position limit of 400 lots for non-futures company members and special non-broker participants in crude oil futures [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The crude oil market is experiencing significant price increases due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with international crude oil prices reaching nearly $120 per barrel, reflecting a rise of over 12% [9]. - The market is influenced by production cuts from several oil-producing countries due to storage pressures and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to heightened volatility in related energy products [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the current geopolitical situation presents high uncertainty, and prices may experience significant corrections if tensions ease [9]. Group 3: Exchange Actions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has also adjusted trading limits for fuel oil futures and made changes to the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements for contracts related to petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber [5][7]. - Effective from March 10, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for petroleum asphalt futures will be set at 12%, with a margin requirement of 13% for hedging positions and 14% for general positions [7]. - The SHFE has implemented a fee adjustment for fuel oil futures, with trading fees set at 0.01% of the transaction amount starting from March 11, 2026 [8].