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关注三季度下游促销活动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream energy prices have a slight correction, and sectors such as steel and building materials are relatively weak. The steel market is in a bottoming - out stage with slow demand recovery and supply pressure. Although the cost side has strong support, factors like increased social inventory and cautious terminal procurement restrict steel price rebounds [1]. - The mid - stream high - tech manufacturing industry continues to improve. In Jiangxi, the high - tech manufacturing industry shows strong momentum, with the sales of the new energy and equipment manufacturing industrial chains increasing by 20.9% and 17.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The manufacturing industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading towards high - end, intelligent, and green directions driven by policy support and technological innovation [1]. - Downstream consumption sees local governments and enterprises jointly issuing large - scale consumption subsidy vouchers and launching intensive theme promotion activities to seize the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". For example, Chongqing launched the "2025 Autumn Consumption Season" on September 1st, planning to invest over 1.7 billion yuan in promotion funds and carry out more than 500 consumption promotion activities. Guangdong will issue 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers on September 12th [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Mid - level Overview - Upstream: Energy prices slightly correct, and steel and building materials are weak. The steel market is in a difficult situation with slow demand recovery and supply pressure [1]. - Mid - stream: High - tech manufacturing in Jiangxi shows strong growth, and the overall manufacturing industry is upgrading [1]. - Downstream: Local governments and enterprises promote consumption through subsidy vouchers and promotion activities [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Production Industry - Not detailed in the text other than the mid - stream high - tech manufacturing situation mentioned above 3.2.2. Service Industry - Not detailed in the text 3.3. Industry Pricing - PE (TTM) and PB values, as well as their trends and quantiles, are provided for various industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction. For example, the PE (TTM) of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry is 53.6, with a quantile of 100%, and the PB is 4.78, with a quantile of 98% [32]. - Industry credit spreads are presented for different industries, including their values at different time points (last year, one quarter ago, one month ago, last week, this week) and quantiles. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week is 50.46, with a quantile of 2.90% [33]. 3.4. Sub - industry Tracking 3.4.1. Generalized Agriculture - Palm oil and corn prices continue to decline, while cotton prices continue to rise. Apple and cotton inventories decline cyclically [2]. 3.4.2. Chemical Industry - The PTA price goes up, and the urea inventory goes up [4]. 3.4.3. Non - ferrous Industry - The zinc price slightly declines, and the lead price goes up. The inventories of lead and copper decline cyclically [3]. 3.4.4. Ferrous Industry - All commodity prices in the ferrous industry slightly decline, and the inventories of coking coal and coke decline [3]. 3.4.5. Infrastructure Industry - The concrete price rebounds, and the cement price remains stable [5]. 3.4.6. Logistics and Transportation - Railway and road freight increase, while waterway freight volume decreases [7]. 3.4.7. Automobile Manufacturing - Not detailed in the text 3.4.8. Real Estate Industry - In key monitored cities this period, the sales of commercial housing in Chongqing, Nanchang, Qingdao, Jinan, and Zhengzhou decline significantly compared to the previous period [6].
广发期货日评-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 06:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].
《能源化工》日报-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices oscillated weakly due to concerns about global crude oil supply surplus and seasonal demand decline. OPEC+ relaxing production cuts and non - OPEC+ countries increasing production led to higher supply expectations. While refinery profits are good currently, the approaching end of the US summer driving season reduces gasoline demand expectations. Geopolitical factors offer some support but the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a high probability of short - term weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the option side after volatility increases [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing as检修 devices restart, and downstream PTA has many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" demand expectation exists, terminal load declined this week, and the demand support is limited. PX11 should focus on the support around 6800, and the strategy of widening the PX - SC spread should exit at high levels [43]. - PTA: In August - September, supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations due to more unplanned shutdowns. However, terminal load declined this week, and demand support is limited. TA should focus on the support around 4750 and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply is increasing as devices resume production, and port inventory is at a low level. With the approaching of the demand peak season, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Sellers of the short - put option EG2601 - P - 4350 can hold [43]. - Short - fiber: Supply load remains high, demand is uncertain, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 with limited upward and downward drivers [43]. - Bottle chips: In August, it is the peak consumption season, and inventory is slowly decreasing. The processing fee has support at the bottom, but it is suppressed by the short - term strengthening of the cost side. The PR single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [43]. Methanol - Port inventory is increasing significantly, the basis is weak, and imports in September remain high. The supply side has high domestic and rising overseas non - Iranian production. The demand side is weak due to the off - season, but there is an expectation of MTO device restart in September. Future attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [72][74]. Urea - The rebound of the urea futures is driven by short - term supply contraction due to more device shutdowns for maintenance. Although daily production is still higher than last year, the expected production reduction supports the market. Downstream restocking also strengthens the supply - contraction expectation. However, the market is still in a state of inventory accumulation, and the rebound strength may be limited. Future attention should be paid to device restart progress, port collection, and industrial demand in North China before the parade [85]. Polyolefins - PP: Devices scheduled for restart next week will increase production. The price center is moving down, and the weighted profit is compressed. PP achieves inventory reduction with both supply and demand increasing. - PE: High - level maintenance will continue until September. It shows a stable - to - downward trend. Supply decreases while demand increases, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream inventory accumulation. Before mid - September, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the LP01 spread should be held [88]. Chlor - Alkali - Caustic Soda: The futures price is slightly falling, and the previous high - level resistance is obvious. Although the spot market was strong before, with good demand from Shandong's downstream alumina plants and inventory reduction, the supply is expected to increase as some plants resume production. The demand is growing, but the short - term futures pressure may be transmitted to the spot market, and short - selling can be considered [91]. - PVC: The futures price is weakening, and the spot price is also decreasing. Supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is put into use and maintenance decreases. Demand from downstream products is weak, and export pressure increases due to the Indonesian anti - dumping tax. Previous short positions can be held [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but as previous maintenance devices resume and there will be a concentrated arrival of pure benzene at the terminal in the second half of the month, the fundamental advantage is weakening. It oscillates weakly, and BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [94]. - Styrene: Downstream 3S load declined slightly this week. The industry is in a loss, supply is high, and port inventory is high, so the short - term drive is weak. However, there are more maintenance plans in September - October, and export expectations increase, so the supply - demand situation may improve. EB10 short positions should be closed at low levels, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 29, Brent crude was at $68.62/barrel (up $0.57 or 0.84% from August 28), WTI was at $64.19/barrel (down $0.41 or - 0.63%), and SC was at 500.10 yuan/barrel (up 6.60 yuan or 1.34%). Different price spreads also showed various changes [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 2.34%, NYM ULSD decreased by 0.71%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.04%. Different product oil spreads also changed on August 29 compared to August 28 [1]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads in different regions and for different products showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased, CFR China MX decreased, etc. [43]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. showed different changes, and cash flows also varied [43]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX, PX futures prices, and various PX spreads all changed [43]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot and futures prices decreased, and processing fees also changed [43]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG prices, basis, and cash flows showed different trends, and port inventory was at a low level [43]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 increased slightly, MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread and various regional spreads changed [72]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [73]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Domestic upstream开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream开工率 increased slightly, and downstream开工率 showed different trends [74]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Different futures contracts showed different price changes, and contract spreads also changed [80][81]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [84]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and开工率 all changed, with production slightly decreasing and inventory increasing [85]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, and various spreads and basis changed [88]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and trade - related inventories showed different trends [88]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 changed slightly [88]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of different types of caustic soda and PVC in the spot and futures markets showed small changes [91]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC industries, downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC products, and inventory all changed [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices changed, and pure benzene - related prices and spreads also varied [94]. - **Styrene - Related Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices, spreads, and cash flows changed [94]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [94]. - **产业链开工率**:开工率 of different parts of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [94].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250829
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.46, or 0.72%, to $64.32; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.47, or 0.69%, to $68.27; INE main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan, or 0.13%, to 473 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 1.67 million barrels to 13.49 million barrels, a 11.01% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.33 million barrels, a 3.77% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.69 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.33% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.35 million barrels to 47.54 million barrels, a 0.72% decline [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 18 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 141 [4] - **Supply**: Domestic production has further recovered, with enterprise profits remaining at a medium - high level. There is still room for production to increase, and supply is gradually rising. Imports have increased, and port inventory has accumulated to a high level [4] - **Demand**: Port MTO profits have continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [4] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 1753 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [6] - **Supply**: More plants are under maintenance, domestic production has declined, and daily output has fallen below 18.5 tons. Short - term supply pressure has eased, and enterprise profits are at a medium - low level [6] - **Demand**: Compound fertilizer production has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventory has risen rapidly. Current demand is mainly concentrated in exports [6] - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventory has increased and remains at a high level year - on - year [6] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long on dips as the downside space is limited [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Bullish Factors**: Southeast Asian weather and rubber forest conditions may limit supply; rubber usually rises in the second half of the year; China's demand is expected to improve [10] - **Bearish Factors**: Macroeconomic expectations are uncertain; demand is in the seasonal off - season; the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, down 1.76 percentage points from last week but up 3.95 percentage points from the same period last year. All - steel tire exports are good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, up 0.19 percentage points from last week but down 4.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories is slow to consume [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [11] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,800 (+ 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,825 (+ 15) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,825 (+ 20) dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,350 (+ 50) yuan; North China butadiene rubber was 11,700 (0) yuan [12] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short term, expect the rubber price to fluctuate, and use a neutral - to - bullish approach, going long on dips and exiting quickly. Partially close the position of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4,946 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 246 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 151 (- 4) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2,350 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 840 (0) dollars/ton. The cost remained stable, and the spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decline. The downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decline. Factory inventory was 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventory was 853,000 tons (+ 41,000) [13] - **Strategy**: In the current situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [15] - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of styrene has been rising. Port inventory has been increasing significantly [15] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5,965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 44 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 152.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62 yuan/ton [16] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the BZN spread may be adjusted. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [16] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains. The spot price of polyethylene is stable, and the downward valuation space is limited. Overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching, with demand for agricultural film raw materials starting to build up inventory [18] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 38 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.24%, a 0.25% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 74,900 tons; trader inventory was 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [18] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the downward trend dominated by cost factors may shift, and the polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [19] - **Analysis**: The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical has been put into operation, and propylene supply has gradually recovered. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. In August, there are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation. Although the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.11%, a 0.2% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 538,500 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons; trader inventory was 168,200 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons; port inventory was 60,300 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons [19] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6,886 yuan, and PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars. The basis was 68 yuan (+ 9), and the 11 - 1 spread was 58 yuan (- 22) [21] - **Supply and Demand**: China's PX operating rate was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; Asia's operating rate was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants have restarted. The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease [21] - **Inventory**: In mid - and early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 294,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of June, inventory was 4.138 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons month - on - month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN was 264 dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 dollars (- 13) [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of crude oil during the peak season [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4,792 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 60 yuan/ton to 4,775 yuan. The basis was - 24 yuan (- 6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 56 yuan (- 16) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease. Some plants have undergone maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, and some new plants have been put into operation. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [23] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA fell 30 yuan to 213 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 313 yuan [23] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of PX during the peak season [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4,465 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+ 5), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 41 yuan (+ 5) [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 75.1%, a 2.7% increase. Some plants at home and abroad have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons. The import forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on August 27 was 10,000 tons [24] - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based production profit was - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 581 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1,104 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 842 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 520 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: In the medium term, port inventory may enter an accumulation cycle, and there is downward pressure on valuation [24]
《能源化工》日报-20250828
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:06
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda spot is expected to continue rising steadily, but the futures may face short - term resistance. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to have short - term low - buying opportunities, and the PX - SC spread can be expanded. PTA should be observed in the short term, with low - buying opportunities and TA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Short - fiber and bottle - chip strategies are similar to PTA [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene trends are expected to be weakly volatile, and BZ2603 should follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Styrene has a weak short - term drive, and EB10 can be short - sold on rebounds [11]. Urea Industry - The urea market is weakly volatile, with high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are difficult to reverse [14][15]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has significant port inventory accumulation, weak basis, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The overall supply pressure of polyolefins is not large before mid - September, and the LP01 spread can be held [44]. Crude Oil Industry - The short - term oil price rebounds, but the geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties remain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 1.2%, while the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 1.1%. Some futures prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC industry operating rates decreased, and the profit of external calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 8.0% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, but the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 8.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda and PVC upstream factory inventories decreased, while the PVC total social inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of some upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain changed, such as the price of Brent crude oil increasing by 1.2% [6]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 8.6% [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the Asian PX operating rate increasing by 2.2% [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream and downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, such as the CFR China pure benzene price decreasing by 0.9% [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.2%, while the styrene inventory increased by 10.8% [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain changed, such as the domestic hydrogenated benzene operating rate decreasing by 8.0% [11]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures prices and spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.81%, and the factory inventory increased by 6.05% [14]. - **Demand**: The demand is affected by the agricultural season and industrial factors, and the compound fertilizer inventory is high [14]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: The methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and the inventory increased significantly [16][17]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed slightly [18]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the PE social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE and PP operating rates changed, and the downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [44]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between some contracts also changed [46]. - **Inventory**: The EIA US crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [46]. - **Operating Rates**: The US refinery operating rate decreased to 94.6% [50].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250828
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]
冠通每日交易策略-20250827
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 11:52
Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]
东光化工发布中期业绩,股东应占溢利7231.8万元,同比下降19.8%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 11:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Dongguang Chemical's (01702) financial performance for the first half of 2025, showing a revenue of 1.181 billion RMB, which represents a year-on-year decline of 11.7% [1] - The profit attributable to the company's owners was 72.318 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.8% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 11.7 cents [1] Group 2 - The overall profit margin in the urea industry has compressed, leading to a decline in the group's profits compared to the previous year [1] - Despite the challenges, the group has maintained relatively stable operating conditions through production structure optimization and cost control [1]
东光化工(01702)发布中期业绩,股东应占溢利7231.8万元,同比下降19.8%
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 11:41
Core Viewpoint - Dongguang Chemical (01702) reported a decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting challenges in the urea industry [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the period was 1.181 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [1] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was 72.318 million RMB, down 19.8% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 11.7 cents [1] Industry Context - The overall profit margin in the urea industry has compressed, contributing to the decline in the company's profits [1] - Despite the challenges, the company managed to maintain relatively stable operational conditions through production structure optimization and cost control [1]
《能源化工》日报-20250827
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:41
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart, but demand may weaken. However, with the approaching peak season, the demand may strengthen. Short - term PX11 can be overweighted in the chemical sector, and the PX - SC spread can be widened [2]. - PTA: Supply is affected by planned outages due to low processing fees, but demand may pick up. It can be overweighted in the chemical sector, and TA1 - 5 may show a positive spread repair in the short - term [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply increases, port inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve. Short - term put option EG2601 - P - 4350 sellers can hold [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand may improve with the approaching peak season, but the sustainability of downstream restocking is weak. PF10 can be overweighted in the chemical sector [2]. - Bottle - chip: In the peak consumption season, production cuts lead to inventory reduction, but the cost increase suppresses processing fees. PR is similar to PTA, and the main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: The price center moves down, and the weighted profit is compressed. The supply and demand both increase, achieving de - stocking. The LPO1 spread can be held [7]. - PE: The price is stable with a downward trend. High - maintenance continues until September, and the upstream shows de - stocking while the mid - stream accumulates inventory [7]. Methanol Industry - The valuation is neutral. The inland supply is high, but low inventory supports the price. The demand may improve as some MTO devices are expected to restart. The 01 contract may see a balance improvement after mid - September [9]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The spot price is expected to continue to rise steadily, but the short - term futures may face resistance. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions [34]. - PVC: The cost - driven effect weakens, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. It is advisable to short at high prices [34]. Crude Oil Industry - The short - term oil price is affected by macro risks, geopolitical factors, and supply uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to widen the option spread after the volatility increases [38]. Urea Industry - The supply expands while the demand is weak, dragging down the price. Attention should be paid to the start time and intensity of autumn fertilizer preparation and the change in urea procurement by compound fertilizer enterprises [40]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply is sufficient, and the fundamental improvement is marginal. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil price and styrene [43]. - Styrene: The demand is expected to improve, but the high supply and inventory pressure prices. EB10 can be shorted in the short - term [43]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (October) decreased by 2.3% to $67.22/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 0.3% to $63.44/barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.2% to $600/ton [2]. Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price decreased by 1.58% to $6845/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 32.2% [2]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX increased by 0.6% to $864/ton, and PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.5% [2]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price increased by 0.4% to 4870 yuan/ton, and PTA spot processing fee decreased by 3.7% [2]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4553 yuan/ton, and MEG port inventory decreased by 4.7% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.2% to 76.3%, and PTA operating rate increased by 4.4% to 76.0% [2]. Polyolefin Industry Prices - L2601 closed at 7402 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; PP2601 closed at 7046 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 6.5% to 78.7%, and PP device operating rate increased by 0.4% to 78.2% [7]. Inventories - PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.91% to 50.2 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.59% to 57.2 million tons [7]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2395 yuan/ton, down 1.2%; MA2509 closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 1.56% [9]. Inventories - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 5.15% to 29.5573 million tons, and methanol port inventory increased by 5.3% to 107.6 million tons [9]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.52% to 73.01%, and downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 76.92% [9]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price remained unchanged at 2687.5 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.8% to 4854 yuan/ton [34]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - FOB East China port decreased by 2.6% to $380/ton, and export profit decreased by 162.2% [34]. PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at $680/ton, and export profit decreased by 5.4% [34]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 86.1%, and PVC total operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.0% [34]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent decreased by 2.3% to $67.22/barrel, WTI increased by 0.3% to $63.44/barrel, and SC increased by 1.34% to 500.1 yuan/barrel [38]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.73% to 213.77 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 2.25% to $674.5/ton [38]. Refined Oil Cracking Spreads - US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 2.42% to $26.34/barrel, and European diesel cracking spread decreased by 5.07% to $26.9/barrel [38]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1777 yuan/ton, and 05 contract decreased by 0.46% to 1737 yuan/ton [40]. Upstream Raw Materials - Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) decreased by 1.94% to 505 yuan/ton [40]. Downstream Products - Melamine (Shandong) remained unchanged at 5225 yuan/ton, and compound fertilizer 45%S (Henan) remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton [40]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.81% to 19.52 million tons, and urea production enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.81% to 84.33% [40]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (October) decreased by 2.3% to $67.22/barrel, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.1% to $750/ton [43]. Styrene - related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.2% to 7260 yuan/ton, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.0% to 7257 yuan/ton [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows - Phenol cash flow decreased by 3.6% to - 544 yuan/ton, and PS cash flow decreased by 26.7% to - 150 yuan/ton [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.2% to 13.8 million tons, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 10.8% to 17.9 million tons [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.9% to 77.9%, and domestic styrene operating rate increased by 0.4% to 78.2% [43].