Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans (domestic), the auction of domestic soybeans was concluded at a premium, supporting the strengthening of the soybean No.1 price. With the new soybeans gradually entering the market, the supply is increasing. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of soybean No.1, focusing on the key pressure level of the 09 contract in the range of 4,250 - 4,300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4,000 - 4,030 yuan/ton [3]. - Regarding peanuts, the expected low carry - over inventory of the old season, along with the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delayed opening of the Port of Port Sudan, has led to a shortage of imported peanuts. The price of peanuts has rebounded from the low - level shock. However, with the alleviation of high - temperature conditions in Henan, the upward momentum of the futures price has weakened. The expected high yield and lower planting costs put pressure on the far - month contracts. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 10 - contract at high levels and try short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [3]. - In the case of soybean oil, the price decline is mainly due to the drop in crude oil and international oil prices. With sufficient supply and weak demand, it is recommended to consider closing long positions and observing for now [4]. - For rapeseed oil, although the inventory has declined from the peak but remains high. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction. It is advisable to reduce long positions and pay attention to Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations and the actual implementation of the US biodiesel policy [4]. - Concerning palm oil, there are positive factors in both supply and demand in Indonesia. However, due to the seasonal production increase and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - term, it is recommended to partially close long positions [5]. - Regarding soybean meal, the price increase is due to concerns about the far - month supply. The market shows a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation". It is recommended to hold long positions in the M2511 contract [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the prices are in a range - bound state. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7]. - In the case of live pigs, the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 09 contract and buy the 2511 contract at low levels [8]. - Regarding eggs, the price has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly, pay attention to the positive spread between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract at low levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - The market logic of soybeans (domestic) includes premium - priced auctions and the gradual increase in supply. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [3][12]. - For peanuts, the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and try short positions in the far - month contracts [3][12]. - Soybean oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to close long positions [4][12]. - Rapeseed oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [4][12]. - Palm oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to partially close long positions [5][12]. - Soybean meal's 11 - contract is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions [5][12]. - Rapeseed meal's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [6][12]. - Corn's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Corn starch's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Live pigs' 09 contract is expected to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions [8][12]. - Eggs' 09 contract is expected to find the bottom through fluctuations. It is recommended to buy at low levels [8][9][12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For cross - period arbitrage, it is recommended to observe for most varieties such as soybeans, peanuts, and oils. However, a positive spread strategy is recommended for the 11 - 1 contract of soybean meal, and a positive spread strategy at low levels is recommended for live pigs and eggs [13][14]. - For cross - variety arbitrage, a bearish operation is recommended for the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bullish operation for the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and it is recommended to observe for other spreads [14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [19][20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [20]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [20]. 3. Livestock - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data, are provided [21][23][24]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of live pigs and eggs are presented [26][27][28] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Charts related to the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts are provided [35][36][38] - **Feed**: Charts of the inventory, consumption, and processing profits of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal are presented [53][54][56] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the trading volume, open interest, and volatility of corn options, as well as historical and implied volatility, are provided [74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Palm Oil: Boosted by Macroeconomics, Beware of Sentiment Reversal; Soybean Oil: Following the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties" [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil is boosted by macro factors, but there is a need to be vigilant about sentiment reversal; soybean oil follows the oil and fat sector and is relatively weak among varieties [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,926 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.18% increase and 8,954 yuan/ton at night with a 0.31% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.20% decrease and 8,072 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,477 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.90% decrease and 9,450 yuan/ton at night with a -0.28% decrease; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,263 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.88% increase and 4,233 ringgit/ton at night with a -0.31% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 55.48 cents/pound with a -0.61% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 706,504 lots with a decrease of 2,205 lots and an open interest of 492,920 lots with a decrease of 16,949 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 296,786 lots with a decrease of 24,688 lots and an open interest of 521,320 lots with a decrease of 14,497 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 298,782 lots with an increase of 55,607 lots and an open interest of 225,053 lots with a decrease of 16,433 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,550 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,040 dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 74 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 204 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 73 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 551 yuan/ton (previous 653 yuan/ton); the futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 850 yuan/ton (previous - 818 yuan/ton); palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton (previous 52 yuan/ton); soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton (previous 44 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan/ton (previous 71 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - UOB estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20, 2025, is expected to increase by 5 - 9%, with production in Sabah expected to decrease by 0 - 4%, in Sarawak to decrease by 1% to increase by 3%, and in Peninsular Malaysia to increase by 11 - 15% [3] - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil next month to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit, driven by the strong soybean oil market and Indian festival demand. However, the upward trend of vegetable oil prices may be restricted by the abundant global oilseed supply, especially soybeans. Since January, soybean oil has rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of 19%, exceeding the increases of rapeseed oil and palm oil. From May to June, Malaysia's palm oil exports to India were above 250,000 tons each month, and this positive trend is expected to continue in Q3. India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in Q3 [5] - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [5] - India's Ministry of Agriculture states that oil palm cultivation is not promoted in forest areas to address environmental concerns [6] - USDA's weekly soybean crushing report shows that as of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [6] - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July 2025 will be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports will be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports will be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [6] - IMEA reports that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 - 18, 2025, was 441.52 reais/ton, down from 443.58 reais/ton the previous week [7] - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons (compared to 200,000 tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 520,000 tons (compared to 770,000 tons last year), and soybean meal imports were 1 million tons (compared to 1.11 million tons last year) [7] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, continued attention should be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton-producing areas in the country have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high-temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off-season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: On July 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.61% from $16.36 to $16.26, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.25% from $68.09 to $68.26 [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 21 - 22, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, remained unchanged in Kunming at 5920.0. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.26% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.65% from 15400.0 to 15500.0 [3] - **Spread Overview**: From July 21 - 22, 2025, most sugar and cotton spreads changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased by 9.26% from 54.0 to 49.0, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 11.11% from 45.0 to 40.0 [3] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 from July 21 - 22, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1613.0 from July 21 - 22, 2025 [3] - **Options**: Information on various sugar and cotton option contracts, including implied volatility and historical volatility, is provided [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From July 21 - 22, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.36% from 21437.0 to 21359.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.68% from 9501.0 to 9436.0 [3] 3.2 Company Introduction - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer member of relevant associations [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts remains tight, but downstream demand is weak, so short - term peanut prices are relatively weak. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are currently stable, and oil mills' theoretical crushing profits are acceptable. The 10 - contract peanut futures are expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term due to uncertainties such as weather and the expectation of increased planting area and decreased planting cost [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 8018, down 26 (-0.32%); PK510 closed at 8140, down 66 (-0.81%); PK601 closed at 7996, down 38 (-0.48%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract showed different degrees of increase [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan were stable, and those in Northeast China were slightly stronger. The prices of imported Sudanese peanuts were stable. The prices of peanut oil and soybean oil were stable, while the price of soybean meal in Rizhao was stronger, and the price of peanut meal was weaker [5][8]. - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 22, down 12; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 122, up 40; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 144, down 28 [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Price**: The price of peanuts in Henan was stable, and that in Northeast China was slightly stronger. The price of imported Sudanese peanuts was stable. It is expected that the short - term peanut spot will be relatively weak [5]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing. The prices of peanut oil and soybean oil were stable, while the price of soybean meal in Rizhao was stronger, and the price of peanut meal was weaker [5][8]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for the 10 - contract peanut futures which are in high - level shock in the short term [10]. - **Spread**: Do reverse arbitrage for the 10 - 1 contract spread of peanuts when the price is low [11]. - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - There are six charts including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the crushing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread of the 10 - 1 contract, and the spread of the 1 - 4 contract [15][20][23].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) dated July 22, 2025, issued by the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - Today, the US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited changes. The domestic bean meal futures continued to rise rapidly, while the rapeseed meal's rise slowed down. The domestic bean meal spot market remained relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand weakened [2][5] - For bean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with changes of 17, 8, and 17. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with changes of 22, 11, and 9 [2] - The spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety futures spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal all showed certain changes. For example, the 59 spread of bean meal was - 326 today, down 9 from yesterday, and the 91 spread of rapeseed meal was 299 today, down 13 from yesterday [2] Price Spreads - The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal was 635 today, down 6 from yesterday; the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was - 29 today, up 3 from yesterday; the spread between bean meal and sunflower meal was 536 today, down 3 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish. As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 70% the previous week. The US soybean old - crop export inspection volume for the week ending July 17 was 365,000 tons. The US soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - reported soybean crushing volume at 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [3] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated but is still slow overall. Brazilian soybean crushing has improved recently, with the May soybean crushing volume continuing to rise month - on - month. The demand for bean meal and soybean oil is good, and the crushing profit has improved due to the rapid increase in soybean oil prices. However, crushing has limited impact on relieving supply pressure, and the demand improvement space is also limited. Brazil may still have room for export growth [3] - Argentina's domestic soybean crushing volume may improve slightly in the future as exports may decrease due to tariffs, but the current domestic crushing profit is average, so the improvement space is limited [3] Domestic Market - The domestic bean meal spot market remains loose. As of July 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, the operation rate was 64.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, down 152,500 tons (2.32%) from last week but up 310,400 tons (5.08%) year - on - year. The bean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, up 111,100 tons (12.66%) from last week but down 262,200 tons (20.8%) year - on - year [5] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has been gradually weakening. The operation rate of oil mills has decreased, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high. As of the week ending July 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, the operation rate this week was 15.72%, the rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons from last week [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market lacks clear macro - guidance. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [6] Group 5: Logical Analysis - The domestic bean meal futures market continues to be strong, but the upward driving force is limited as the bullish factors from the US soybeans and cost side have decreased. The international market also lacks substantial bullish factors, and the US soybean's upward space is limited. The bean meal may face a certain downward pressure [7] - The fundamentals of rapeseed meal have changed little recently. The market focus is on the import of Australian rapeseed, which has great uncertainty in terms of import volume and price. The overall supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average, so the rapeseed meal market also faces pressure [7] - The monthly spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal may face downward pressure, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal will be volatile [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to reduce and exit the RM91 reverse arbitrage position [8] - For options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, bean meal price, soybean oil price, and pressing profit. For example, the disk pressing profit of Argentine soybeans for October shipment is - 13.19 [9]

Core Insights - The unexpected decline in the good-to-excellent rating of U.S. soybeans raises concerns about potential yield impacts due to high temperatures in August [1] - Both corn and soybean futures are facing downward pressure, indicating multiple challenges to the short-term bullish outlook [1] Group 1 - The good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans has unexpectedly decreased, which could exacerbate yield concerns [1] - High temperatures in August are a significant factor that may influence soybean production negatively [1] - The current market conditions for corn and soybeans are characterized by downward pressure on futures prices [1]

| を业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 王法特 | 2025年7月22日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原田 | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 江苏一级 | 8350 | 8350 | 0 | 现价 | -0.83% | 期价 | Y2509 | 8092 | 8160 | -68 | | Y2509 | 258 | 190 | 35.79% | 其差 | 28 | 09+150 | 09+170 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 20 | - | | 仓单 | 22118 | 22118 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 7月18日 | 7月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 广东24度 | 8970 | 8970 | 0.00% | 现价 ...

Report Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, with the US cotton market expected to oscillate. In China, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted, and new pressure will be exerted on cotton prices in the fourth quarter [2] - For sugar, the raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [5][6] - For pulp, short - term anti - involution policies boost the market, but there is supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited, with the focus on whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,589 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's pure cotton yarn imports were about 93,300 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were about 589,600 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is in a supply - loose pattern, and the US cotton market is expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to be low. However, the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, the terminal demand is weak, and the cotton price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upside of the 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and long - term high - selling is advised [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,334 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,285 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market. In the second half of the year, the supply pressure remains, and the demand improvement is limited [8] Strategy - Neutral. It is difficult for the pulp price to break away from the bottom in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation are recommended [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current growth of the new - season US soybeans is good, with the improvement of the soybean good - to - excellent rate exceeding expectations and surpassing last year's level and historical average. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and despite a decline in the sown area, high yields are likely to lead to a bountiful harvest. In China, oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the aquaculture industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and spot prices remain stable. However, due to macro - sentiment, the soybean meal futures prices rose last week. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans, as tariff policies will significantly affect prices [3] - In the domestic corn market, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available grain in circulation has become scarcer. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and purchase on - demand, while deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotes slightly when purchasing as needed. The decreasing成交 rate of imported corn auctions has weakened its impact on market prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3069 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.43%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M09 - 99, down 13 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M09 - 179, down 3; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M09 - 209, down 13. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM09 - 7, up 5 [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.26%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C09 + 0, down 6; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS09 + 76, down 6 [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in July 2025 to be 12.19 million tons, higher than the previous estimate but lower than June's exports. The expected annual exports in 2025 are 110 million tons, an increase of about 13 million tons year - on - year, exceeding the 2023 record [2] - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that from July 22 - 26, rainfall in the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than normal, while in some southern states, it will be close to or slightly below normal [2] - As of July 16, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 78.9%, with an average yield of 7.39 tons per hectare, and a cumulative harvest of 40.4 million tons [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - For soybean meal, the good growth of new - season US soybeans, combined with favorable weather forecasts, is likely to result in a bumper harvest. In China, the supply is loose due to oil - mill inventory accumulation and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. The futures price increase was influenced by macro - sentiment. Policy changes and new - season soybean growth are key factors affecting prices [3] - For corn, the reduction of available grain in circulation in the domestic market is due to concentrated sales. Feed and deep - processing enterprises purchase on - demand, and the weakening impact of imported corn auctions on prices [5] 3.4 Strategies - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is cautiously bearish [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]