宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 50 期 外贸高频维持高位 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 12 月 7 日，我国港口集装箱 吞吐量环比-1.8%，上周环比为-0.3%，四周同比 9.5%，上周为 9.6%。 2、价格：铜价、金价上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4302.7 美金/盎司，上涨 2.5%； LME 三个月铜价收于 11795 美元/吨，上涨 1.5%。 （二）景气向下 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回落。截至 12 月 7 日，该指数为 4.12%，11 月 30 日的 5.09%下行 0.97%。 2、乘用车零售增速明显回落。12 月第一周，乘用车零售同比增速-32%，前值 +2%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 3、地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅再度扩大。我们统计的 67 个城市，12 月 前 12 日，商品房成交面积同比为-31%。11 月同比为-34%。 4、煤价继续走弱，地产系价格下跌。山西产动力末煤(Q5500)秦皇岛港平仓价 收于 745 元/吨，下跌 5.1%；螺纹钢上海现货价收于 3250 元/吨，下跌 0.6%； ...

中国宏观经济 2026 年年报 中国宏观经济：今朝虽未开盛宴 街头巷尾已 闻钟 ——2025 年中国宏观经济回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 Z0013871 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年以来经济整体走弱，四个季度 GDP 增速逐步下行，即使排除四季度基数因 素，增量贡献也有所减弱。从需求角度看，消费表现稳定是主要支持，背后以来消费 补贴等政策驱动，本质仍是财政政策的出口。净出口带动力先升后降，整体表现超预 期，且绝对贡献超过投资。投资表现不佳，贡献相对最低。尤其是三季度开始进一步 走弱。其中地产维持长期下行趋势不变，基建投资受到资金端影响，制造业投资与中 美贸易冲突后企业信心变动有关。此外，年内经济运行逻辑出现明显两段变动：上半 年是高实际增速叠加通缩，名义 GDP 表现并不佳；下半年转向通缩修复同时产出减 速，名义 GDP 放缓程度收窄。"反内卷"政策是最主要的影响因素，且其局部性影响 仍将继续体现。我们认为，2026 年库存周期将迎来修复，节奏上看底部或位于二季度， 全年经济将呈现前低后高态势，内生动能有所增强。同时中美贸易紧张关系缓和，逆 全球化趋势放慢后也有利于外 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" and the rating has been maintained [3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes balancing market stability, risk prevention, and transformation in the real estate sector. The focus has shifted from urgent measures to stabilize the market to a more balanced approach aimed at long-term risk resolution and high-quality development [6][7]. - The probability of large-scale, nationwide support policies for the real estate market is low, with "city-specific policies" becoming the main theme. The focus is on local governments as the main implementers of policies [6][7]. - The role of real estate has transitioned from driving economic growth to risk prevention and social welfare, highlighting the sector's importance in social security and housing attributes [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The investment suggestion indicates that the real estate policy environment in 2026 will seek a balance between market stability, risk prevention, and transformation, with a moderately positive but more rational and structured policy environment [6][7]. - Short-term focus should be on the implementation pace and scale of "stock housing acquisition policies," which will be crucial for market sentiment and improving liquidity for real estate companies [7]. Policy Directions - The core policy measures include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, with an emphasis on acquiring existing housing for social housing and promoting the construction of quality homes [6][7]. - The new development model aims to enhance the quality of housing rather than merely expanding scale, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in the industry [6][7].

CMG 与 ChinaJoy 国际版同期亮相阿布扎比 BRIDGE 峰会 2025 BRIDGE 峰会在阿布扎比国家展览中心开幕，全球媒体与科技机构齐聚探讨数字内容、技术融合与未来产业趋势。中国元素集中亮相：中央广播电视 总台（CMG）作为重点展示单位，全面呈现 8K 超高清制作播出、AI 辅助编辑、智能内容生产与多语种数字传播等创新成果，展示中国在国际传播技术领 域的领先实力。同期，ChinaJoy 国际版——首届"国际中国游戏节"正式登场，这是亚洲最大游戏与数字娱乐展会首次以国际版形式出海阿联酋。以"与 AI 同 游"为主题，本届展区集结腾讯游戏、游戏科学、505 Games、悲鸿美术馆、模言文化等20余家行业代表企业，覆盖研发、发行、IP运营与科技应用全链条。 （阿通社） 阿布扎比启动 FIDA 计划，推动 GDP 增长、吸引投资与创造高技能就业岗位 阿布扎比宣布启动全新金融集群——金融科技、保险、数字与另类资产（FIDA）集群，以加强其在金融科技、保险、数字资产和另类投资等领域的全球竞 争力。该计划在2025年阿布扎比金融周期间发布，并获阿布扎比王储、行政委员会主席 Sheikh Khaled bin ...

与此同时，二手房市场呈现以价换量扩大化态势。百城二手房挂牌均价同比下跌8.59%，挂牌量增至 267.8万套，同比上升7.8%，新一线城市挂牌量增幅高达10.13%，平均挂牌时长拉长至94.72天，价格承 压明显。值得关注的是，存量房市场正逐步占据更重要的地位。安居客数据显示，11月二手房找房人数 占比已连续五个月上升，占比达65.8%。 市场信心方面出现一些积极信号。根据58安居客研究院12月的在线调研，2026年明确计划买房的用户占 比达34.61%，较年中调研提升11.63个百分点；持币观望用户占比降至33.56%，降幅超15个百分点，市 场观望情绪有所缓解。 张波认为，未来在政策托底下，刚需有望在核心城市率先释放，市场有望呈现二手房量价齐稳、新房核 心改善企稳的趋势。在"十五五"规划的指引下，清理住房消费不合理限制、推动好房子建设将成为房地 产行业的重要方向。房地产将逐步过渡到高质量发展阶段，房企竞争将更加聚焦于品质，适老型住房、 绿色智能住宅等产品占比或提升，以匹配人口老龄化与家庭小型化的需求趋势。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing significant challenges, the Chinese economy demonstrates strong resilience, leading the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5% and 4.5%, respectively, driven by robust exports and effective macroeconomic stimulus measures [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has increased its growth expectations for China, attributing this to strong exports and favorable macroeconomic policies [1]. - The IMF estimates that China's contribution to global growth is approximately 30%, indicating the importance of a balanced Chinese economy for global economic health [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The IMF expressed concerns regarding three main areas: weak domestic demand, consumer confidence under pressure, and high government and corporate debt [4][5]. - To address these challenges, the IMF recommends implementing a comprehensive macroeconomic policy package and increasing exchange rate flexibility [5]. - The IMF suggests that enhancing social security systems could boost consumer confidence and spending, potentially increasing GDP by up to 3% [5]. Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The prolonged adjustment in the real estate sector has negatively impacted local government finances and consumer confidence, contributing to weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures [6]. - The IMF advises that approximately 5% of GDP should be allocated to revitalize the real estate market to restore consumer confidence and encourage spending [6]. - The IMF supports the Chinese government's efforts to transition from an export and investment-driven economy to one focused on domestic consumption [6]. Group 4: Innovation and Development - The IMF acknowledges China's increasing investment in research and development, positioning itself as an innovation-driven economy [6]. - China ranks first among emerging markets in the IMF's "Artificial Intelligence Readiness Index," highlighting its advancements in digital infrastructure and regulatory frameworks [6].

岁末年初，聚焦中国经济发展方向的中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日成功举行，为来年经济发展锚定方向，意义深远。官媒发布的会议通稿中，第八条 任务部署与房地产行业息息相关，引发市场高度关注。 通篇研读，会议精神直指房地产市场稳定，强调因城施策，从控增量、去库存、优供给等多维度发力。鼓励收购存量商品房，并将其转化为保障性住房，同 时深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推进"好房子"建设，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 这一系列举措，无疑为深陷调整期的房地产行业指明了方向。自2021年下半年以来，房地产行业面临前所未有的挑战，曾经的增长预期转变为对风险的防范 与化解。房地产作为国民经济的支柱产业，其稳定关乎全局。一旦房地产领域出现风险，将波及上下游产业链，甚至可能引发金融系统性风险，其重要性不 言而喻。 那么，如何化解房地产风险？今年的中央经济工作会议给出了明确路径：去库存是重中之重。房地产企业一旦面临库存积压，资金链如同被阻塞的血管，无 法正常循环，其连锁反应不容忽视。无法回款，企业将面临资金链断裂的危机；无法偿还贷款，银行不良资产增加；无法支付工资，员工利益受损，人才流 失加剧；无法支付供应商款项，影响产业链稳定；无法 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 15, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC No.: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows overall decline in production heat, marginal drop in property transactions, general downward trend in prices, and significant fall of the Baltic Dry Index. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][34] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.72 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 1.53 pct, and rebar output decreased by 10.53 tons. Inventory decreased by 1.88 tons [10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Operating rate decreased by 0.1 pct and remained at a low level [10] - Chemicals: PX and PTA operating rates remained flat [10] - Automobile Tires: All - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.57 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.65 pct [11] Demand - Real Estate: Property transaction area declined, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area continued to fall from a high level, and residential land transaction premium rate decreased [16] - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 720 million yuan compared to the previous week [16] - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 83,000 units, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 143,000 units [20] - Shipping Freight Rates: SCFI index increased by 7.79%, CCFI index increased by 0.29%, and BDI index dropped significantly by 19.14% [22] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price dropped by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, and coking coal futures price fell by 11.72% to 1,028.5 yuan per ton [24] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.96%, - 0.88%, and + 1.31% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price fell by 2.97% [25] - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.96%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.02%, + 0.67%, + 0.34%, and + 2.02% respectively compared to the previous week [27] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai [30] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decreased [32] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [32] Summary - Overall production heat declined, and commodity prices fell. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [34]

安伟强调，要认真践行人民城市理念，强化"三标"引领，以推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持内涵式 发展为主线，以高效能治理为保障，以推动城市更新为重要抓手，大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、 品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，加快打造具有时代特征、中原特色、国际风采的现代化人 民城市。要着力构建"一平台两中心组团式网络化"城镇格局，加快建设富有活力的创新郑州、舒适便利 的宜居郑州、绿色低碳的美丽郑州、安全可靠的韧性郑州、崇德向善的文明郑州、便捷高效的智慧郑 州。要聚焦聚力、攻坚克难，着力提升城市更新工作质效，加快完善防洪排涝体系，推动房地产高质量 发展、"文旅城"深度融合发展，不断提升城市国际化水平。 12月13日，市委城市工作会议召开，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于城市工作的重要论述和在河南考察 时重要讲话精神，落实中央和省委城市工作会议部署，引导全市上下准确把握形势任务，加快转变城市 发展方式，围绕"创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧"，打造具有时代特征、中原特色、国际风采的 现代化人民城市。省委常委、市委书记安伟出席会议并讲话。 市委副书记、市长庄建球主持会议。市领导周富强、杜新军、路云、陈明、陈宏伟、虎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is expected to undergo a "major reset" by 2026, with gradual recovery in housing sales and normalization of prices, although affordability remains a challenge for many young buyers [1][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. have stabilized below 6.3%, currently at 6.22%, indicating a trend towards easing [1]. - Redfin's annual outlook report suggests that housing sales will gradually rebound, with prices becoming more normalized and affordability slowly improving [1][6]. - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts a 14% increase in existing home sales and a 4% rise in home prices by 2026, with mortgage rates expected to drop to around 6% [6]. Group 2: Regional Market Dynamics - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of significant differentiation, with some areas remaining strong while others are experiencing a slowdown [3]. - In New York City, while overall transactions are weak, desirable properties still attract competitive bids, particularly in areas with limited supply [3][4]. - Florida's market is cooling down from the pandemic highs, with a stable demand from first-time buyers and a decrease in investor activity due to high mortgage rates [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - International investors are shifting focus away from the U.S. due to high financing costs and policy uncertainties, with many opting for cash purchases to negotiate better deals [6]. - The reduction in investor activity is attributed to rising mortgage rates, which have significantly compressed profit margins for potential buyers [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The housing market is expected to enter a healthier state by 2026, with improved affordability attracting more buyers back to the market [7][8]. - Despite anticipated improvements, many potential buyers, particularly younger generations, may still find homeownership out of reach due to high living costs [7][8]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious optimism, with expectations of a stable and sustainable pace rather than extreme fluctuations seen in previous years [8].