"反内卷"政策下，能源与材料有哪些投资机会？ 20250702 摘要 国家层面反内卷政策升级，旨在解决低价竞争和产能过剩问题，尤其针 对地方政府不规范行为，以提振工业企业盈利能力，截至 2025 年 6 月 PPI 已连续 33 个月负增长。 光伏产业面临严重产能过剩，需通过供给侧改革盘活市场，并作为中美 关税谈判筹码，通过价格调整避免低价倾销指控，改善产业链盈利状况， 关注硅料价格和股价变化。 光伏行业供给侧改革分两步走：划定落后产能并约束开工率，通过收储 或成立基金消化多晶硅库存，优先关注上游原材料如通威股份，下游组 建环节如晶澳科技、晶科能源。 建材领域反内卷政策执行效果显著，水泥行业预计有 3-4 亿吨熟料厂退 出市场，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥等；玻璃行业头部企业减产，关注浮 法玻璃及光伏玻璃投资机会。 钢铁行业通过环保限产和落后产能退出优化供给，企业主动调节产量， 利润有望走阔，关注新钢股份、华菱钢铁等估值较低的板材类标的，以 及宝钢股份。 Q&A 反内卷政策的演化脉络是什么？ 反内卷政策最早在 2024 年 7 月 30 日的中央政治局会议上提出，当时强调行 业自律，防止内卷式恶性竞争，并畅通低效产 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on top-level design, policy support, and encouraging social capital participation [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology and fostering leading marine technology enterprises and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - Key areas for development include offshore wind power, modern deep-sea fishing, marine biomedicine, and creating marine cultural and tourism destinations [2] Group 2 - Recent high-level meetings have consistently prioritized the development of the marine economy, with specific goals set for 2024 and beyond [3] - Various provinces are actively implementing policies to boost marine economic development, with Guangdong and Shanghai leading initiatives to enhance marine industries and attract investment [4] - The northern, eastern, and southern marine economic circles in China are developing distinct advantages based on their resource endowments and industrial foundations [5]

jis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/2 | | | 指标 | 5/30 | 6/24 | 6/27 | 6/30 | 7/1 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11145 | 11230 | 11275 | 11250 | 11260 | 10 | 30 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 28417 | 10659 | 33472 | 28291 | 27411 | -880 | 16752 | | | : 11 | 主力合约成交量 | 151323 | 110263 | 96846 | 96678 | 92497 | -4181 | -17766 | | | | 仓单数量 | 12270 | 6630 | 7700 | 7700 | 7700 | 0 | 1070 | | | | 虚实比 | 11.58 | 8.04 | 21.74 | 18.37 | 17.80 | -1 | 10 | | | | 顺丁基差 | ર્કર | 32 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Liaoning Dingjide Petrochemical Co., Ltd., has announced a guarantee for its subsidiary, Liaoning Dingjide Petrochemical Technology Co., Ltd., amounting to 145 million RMB, which is part of a larger total guarantee of 3.86 billion RMB for the subsidiary [1][8]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The company provides a joint guarantee for a loan of 100 million RMB to the subsidiary, with a guarantee period of three years from the loan's maturity [2][6]. - The total external guarantee amount provided by the company and its subsidiaries is 4.31 billion RMB, which represents 272.76% of the audited net assets attributable to shareholders for the year 2024 [8]. - The company has not provided guarantees to its controlling shareholders or related parties, and there have been no overdue guarantees [8]. Group 2: Subsidiary Information - Liaoning Dingjide Petrochemical Technology Co., Ltd. is a controlled subsidiary, with the company holding a 52.67% stake [5][7]. - The subsidiary was established on November 9, 2022, with a registered capital of 150 million RMB [5][6]. - The subsidiary's business includes the manufacturing of new membrane materials and specialized chemical products [5][6]. Group 3: Internal Decision-Making - The guarantee has been approved by the company's board of directors and the annual general meeting, falling within the authorized limits set during the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting [7][8]. - The company plans to adjust the guarantee limits based on the actual operational needs of its subsidiaries, which is also within the approved scope [4][5]. Group 4: Financial Health - The subsidiary has a good credit status and is not listed as a dishonest executor [6][7]. - The financial indicators show that the total assets of the subsidiary are approximately 3.60 billion RMB, with total liabilities of about 2.46 billion RMB [6].

公司于 2025 年 5 月 15 日召开的 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于海宁 募投项目结项并将本项目节余募集资金永久补充流动资金的议案》，将海宁募投项目 节余募集资金 36,601.26 万元永久补充流动资金。具体内容详见公司 2025 年 4 月 24 日披露的《关于海宁募投项目结项并将本项目节余募集资金永久补充流动资金的公 告》（公告编号：公告编号：2025-040） 证券代码：000703 证券简称：恒逸石化 公告编号：2025-070 恒逸石化股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 恒逸石化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 7 月 9 日召开的第十二 届董事会第十一次会议、第十二届监事会第八次会议，审议通过了《关于使用部分闲 置募集资金暂时补充流动资金的议案》，同意公司使用不超过 140,000.00 万元（含本 数）的闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金，用于与主营业务相关的经营活动，不直接或 者间接用于证券投资、衍生品交易等高风险投资，使用期限自董事会审议通过之日起 不超过 12 个月，到期归还募集资金 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the petrochemical industry, the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, rose by 0.37% to 1009.79 points with a trading volume of 11.339 billion yuan on July 1 [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 2.08%, but it has decreased by 2.96% over the last three months and by 4.36% year-to-date [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in key industries such as steel, shipping, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, equipment, and logistics, with a base date of December 31, 2008, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index include Wanhua Chemical (9.98%), China Petroleum (9.61%), China Petrochemical (8.1%), and others [1] - The index's market composition shows that 70.15% of holdings are from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, while 29.85% are from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - In terms of industry composition, raw materials account for 75.54% and energy for 24.46% of the index holdings [1] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Public funds tracking the petrochemical industry include various funds from Huaxia and E Fund, such as Huaxia China Securities Petrochemical Industry Link A and E Fund China Securities Petrochemical Industry ETF [2]

Core Insights - The benzene and styrene industry is expected to face a specific landscape in the second half of 2025, with a loose supply of benzene and several new production lines coming online [1] - Domestic maintenance peaks have passed, and local supply remains stable, while imports are projected to remain high at 45-50 [1] - Downstream demand for caprolactam and aniline is struggling to rebound, leading to limited growth in non-styrene downstream demand [1] Benzene Market Analysis - The benzene market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with domestic production and imports expected to meet demand [1] - Inventory levels are anticipated to increase slightly, with a phase of inventory destocking expected [1] - The overall valuation of benzene is likely to remain under pressure due to high imports and weak downstream demand [1] Styrene Market Analysis - The styrene market is facing limited positive fundamentals, with weakening demand support from the home appliance sector in the second half of the year [1] - The profitability of the styrene industry is expected to decline, leading to potential reductions in production capacity [1] - Styrene's demand is increasingly reliant on benzene, enhancing its bargaining power within the industry chain [1] Price Dynamics - The price spread between styrene and benzene may experience a slight decline in the second half of the year but is expected to remain at a medium to high level [1] - The high inventory levels in the styrene market may lead to both styrene and benzene accumulating inventory [1] Oil Price Impact - Uncertainty in the market is largely influenced by crude oil prices, with a downward trend expected in the long term [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases falling short of expectations have led to rising oil prices, which could shift market dynamics [1] - If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may trigger a replenishment of inventory, affecting the price spread between styrene and benzene [1] Strategic Recommendations - Assuming a high probability of declining crude oil prices, the strategy suggests shorting styrene and taking advantage of the styrene-benzene price spread during dips [1]

Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical index experienced a comprehensive increase, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 3.31%, chemical machinery index by 1.06%, pharmaceutical index by 1.06%, and pesticide and fertilizer index by 2.54% [1] - In contrast, the oil sector saw a decline, with the oil processing index down by 0.91%, oil extraction index down by 3.26%, and oil trading index down by 6.96% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices significantly decreased, with WTI settling at $65.52 per barrel, down 12.56% from June 20, and Brent at $67.77 per barrel, down 12% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included butanone up by 101.77%, liquid chlorine up by 7.35%, and isooctyl acrylate up by 5.71% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included US light crude down by 12.56%, vitamin D3 down by 12.50%, and propane down by 9.17% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five gaining listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included Dazhongnan up by 50%, Taihe Technology up by 48.09%, and Tiancheng New Materials up by 31.41% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Tongyuan Petroleum down by 19.75%, Jinniu Chemical down by 14.44%, and Beiken Energy down by 17.74% [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum "Dalian Salon" green petrochemical industry promotion meeting was held in Tianjin, attended by officials from Dalian and Tianjin [1][2] - Dalian aims to enhance the petrochemical industry through high-end development, digital transformation, and green transition, focusing on collaborative innovation and safety in the chemical industry [1][2] - Longxing Island is recognized as a national petrochemical industry base and a core area of the Bohai Rim world-class petrochemical industry cluster, with a strong industrial foundation and excellent logistics conditions [2] Group 2 - Longxing Island will focus on building a world-class green petrochemical industry base, emphasizing refining capacity, high-end chemical supply, and technological innovation [2] - Industry experts and representatives from major companies, including Westlake Chemical and Saudi Aramco, acknowledged the achievements of Longxing Island's green petrochemical industry and discussed future cooperation [2] - A delegation led by Zhao Dong conducted research at the National Supercomputing Tianjin Center to promote the implementation of the Dalian information innovation project, exploring collaboration in various high-tech fields [2]

Consumption - Marginal improvement in consumer goods, with automotive wholesale and retail sales showing seasonal recovery[6] - High-end dining and liquor, particularly Moutai, continue to decline due to policy impacts, with Moutai prices down 6.8% week-on-week[6] - Textile and apparel demand is recovering, with a second consecutive week of improvement[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, totaling CNY 2.16 trillion as of June 28, reflecting a faster pace compared to previous years[17] - New home sales in 30 cities showed seasonal recovery but were down 15.8% year-on-year, indicating a slower recovery in second and third-tier cities[17] - Construction progress in infrastructure and real estate is marginally improving, with asphalt operating rates rising[17] Trade and Export - External demand remains weak, with South Korea's exports and imports from China growing by 3.4% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively[22] - Port data indicates a recovery in the number of ships but a slight decline in cargo tonnage, suggesting a mismatch between supply and demand[22] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 12.4%, indicating weakened freight rates despite restored shipping capacity[22] Production - Power generation shows seasonal coal consumption recovery, but steel and petrochemical industries are under pressure[31] - The operating rates for steel and petrochemical products continue to decline, indicating ongoing industry stress[32] Inventory - Coal inventories at ports have dropped for six consecutive weeks, reaching a yearly low, while cement inventory ratios are recovering[41] - Downstream industries are primarily focused on restocking, reflecting subdued demand[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both declining, with oil prices dropping below $70 per barrel, down 10.6% week-on-week[46] - Industrial prices are also falling, with the South China price index down 1.1%[46] Liquidity - The US dollar index fell below 98, marking its lowest level since February 2022, while the People's Bank of China injected CNY 10,672 billion to support liquidity[55] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 1.65%[55]