1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market shows a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term and intraday tendency of strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. However, considering that the valuation has reached a high level, there is a need to guard against the shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety View - For the iron ore 2509 variety, the short - term outlook is upward, the mid - term and intraday outlooks are strongly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is favorable. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased again. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore is resilient, providing strong support for the ore price. - Although the port arrivals have increased significantly, the miners' shipments are weak. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline, resulting in a decrease in overseas ore supply. Domestic ore production is stable, and the supply will contract in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the iron ore fundamentals have improved, and the industrial pattern is relatively good. Policy expectations have boosted market sentiment, supporting the high - level and strong operation of the ore price [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump signed an order on July 17 to relax regulations affecting coal plants and iron ore facilities [1] - The order provides a two-year grace period for industries impacted by fossil fuel and ESG regulations established during President Biden's term [1]

Group 1 - Iron ore futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 784.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% [1] - Optimistic sentiment regarding demand and improved profits for steel mills continue to support iron ore prices, as reported by the ANZ research team [2] - Iron ore port inventories are declining, and steel mill inventories in China are also decreasing [2] Group 2 - Rio Tinto reported a second-quarter iron ore production of 83.7 million tons, a 20% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 5% increase year-on-year [2] - Iron ore shipments from Rio Tinto's Pilbara operations were 79.9 million tons in the second quarter, a 13% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1% decrease year-on-year [2] - National main port iron ore transactions reached 1 million tons, a decrease of 1.48% compared to the previous period [3] Group 3 - The demand for steel is in a seasonal downturn, leading to increased sales pressure, while some blast furnaces are approaching mid-year maintenance [4] - The crude steel production in the first half of the year decreased by 15.92 million tons year-on-year, reducing market expectations for production cuts in the second half [4] - Iron ore port inventories saw a slight decrease of 300,000 tons, while global iron ore shipments fell by 78,000 tons week-on-week, marking the second consecutive week of decline [4] Group 4 - Macro sentiment is supportive, with the State Council proposing policies to strengthen domestic circulation, enhancing market policy expectations [4] - Recent maintenance increases are expected to keep iron water production in a weak state [4] - Short-term outlook for iron ore prices is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [4]

Group 1 - The iron ore spot transaction volume reached 1 million tons, with prices for PB powder at 751 yuan/ton and super special powder at 634 yuan/ton, indicating a price spread of 117 yuan/ton between high and low-grade products [1] - The futures market saw the main iron ore contract closing at 785.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.81%, and trading volume reaching 463,317 lots [1] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 78,000 tons to 29.871 million tons, marking a phase of decline after the seasonal peak in shipments [2] Group 2 - The demand for black metals in the first half of the year was primarily driven by exports, while macroeconomic policies have positively impacted steel demand expectations, particularly in manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure [3] - The profit levels of steel mills remain healthy, suggesting that iron ore prices may continue to experience strong fluctuations in the short term [3] - Rio Tinto's iron ore shipment target for the Pilbara region remains unchanged at 323-338 million tons for 2025 [2]

据知名研究公司分析，今年下半年，黄金等防御性大宗商品的表现有望继续超越更具周期性的金属。大 宗商品策略师Roukaya Ibrahim指出，亚洲国家经济疲软以及美国提高进口关税，将导致对工业金属和石 油的需求相对避险资产有所减少。 Ibrahim表示，尽管金价目前仍在3300至3400美元区间盘整，但她预计金价突破该区间并重新测试4月份 创下的每盎司3500美元历史高点只是时间问题。 她进一步阐述道："我们认为，金价的下一个重大走势将是向上突破阻力位，而非长期下跌。推动金价 近三年上涨的主要因素依然在发挥作用。具体而言，各国央行对黄金的需求依旧旺盛且难以满足。若说 有何影响，特朗普总统反复无常的政策转向可能会损害外国央行对美国政府的信任，进而降低它们持有 美国资产的意愿，从而加剧这一趋势。" Ibrahim还提到："在我们的12个月大宗商品展望矩阵中，石油和铜的配置仍显不足，我们对铁矿石的看 法也极为负面。相反，在该矩阵中，我们极度看好黄金，并对白银也持积极态度。" 摘要今日周四（7月17日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于771.92元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报 772.52元/克，上涨0.06%，最高触 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the real - estate data in Q2 and H1 2025 is still weak, indicating the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, with the strong expectation mainly coming from potential supply - side reforms. For now, the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further and inventory may rise slightly. In the short - term, the iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, supported by the decline in port inventory, but the high inventory of port trade minerals should be noted [2][4]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Conditions**: The real - estate data is weak, and the central urban work conference did not bring the expected major positive news. Supply and demand are both weak. Last week, threaded rod production decreased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory also decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month. With hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory may rise slightly. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, and the futures price has stopped falling and continued the previous medium - term upward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and up 1.40% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3253 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day and up 1.97% from last week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.46%, and the daily average molten iron output is 239.81 million tons, down 0.43% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production is 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 323.14 million tons, down 1.52% from last week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with the profit - making surface of sample steel mills approaching 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week. It is expected that the molten iron output will further decline in the near future. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade mineral inventory is high. In the short - term, boosted by the rising prices of threaded rods, coking coal, and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [4]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 773 yuan/dry ton, up 0.78% from the previous day and up 4.96% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 15.699 billion tons, down 0.97% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 7.099 billion tons, up 22.63% from last week. The port inventory is 137.6589 billion tons, down 0.81% from last week [4]. III. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel is 2.71 million tons, a 1.5% decrease; the daily output of pig iron is 2.36 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and the daily output of steel is 4.09 million tons, a 2.9% decrease [6]. - UMK announced its manganese ore quotation for China in August 2025, with the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps at 3.9 US dollars/ton degree (up 0.05) [7]. - Rio Tinto released its Q2 production and sales report. In terms of production, the iron ore output of the Pilbara business in Q2 was 83.7 million tons, a 20% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 5% increase year - on - year. In terms of shipments, the iron ore shipments of the Pilbara business in Q2 were 79.9 million tons, a 13% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year [7].