行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 11 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 二、 行业要闻 1. 外媒 4 月 9 日消息，德国 Aurubis 公司首席执行官 Toralf Haag 周三在 CESCO 和 CRU 铜会议间隙接受采访时表示，北美是一个有吸引力的市场，该公司今 年将扩大其位于美国的铜回收冶炼厂的运营规模，并补充称 Aurubis 公司认 为未来几年还有更大的投资潜力。Aurubus 已投资 8 亿美元建设该项目，历 时四年。Haag 表示，该工厂每年将处理 18 万吨复杂废铜，并生产 7 万吨精 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sentiment surrounding trade conflicts has a greater impact than the actual effects, with expectations for copper prices to stabilize after sentiment dissipates [1][4]. - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tight balance in 2025, with supply constraints expected to gradually materialize, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,860 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week, while LME copper closed at 8,780 USD/ton, down 10.4% week-on-week [1][17]. - The report notes a significant drop in copper prices due to the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners [1]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 6.2%, while LME copper inventory fell by 1.0% [2][25]. - As of April 3, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 648,000 tons, down 18.3% week-on-week [2][46]. Supply - In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1,122,100 tons, up 6.0% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year [3][65]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 917 CNY/ton as of April 3, 2025, down 1,528 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 8.2 percentage points to 81.06% as of April 3, 2025 [3][75]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, is expected to see production increases of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% in April, May, and June 2025, respectively [3][94]. Futures Market - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions also fell by 12.0% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Minmetals Resources [4][5].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

Group 1: Jiangxi Copper (JXC) - The company reported a net profit of 6.9 billion RMB for 2024, with earnings per share of 2.0 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2-3% [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit reached 8.3 billion RMB, a 26% increase year-on-year, aligning with expectations and exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] - The company announced a dividend of 0.698 RMB per share, with a payout ratio exceeding 35% [1] - The 2025 profit forecast was adjusted down by 2%, while the 2026 forecast was raised by 28%, incorporating the latest copper price predictions [1] - As a pure copper play, Jiangxi Copper is expected to benefit from high copper prices, maintaining recurring net profits in the range of 8.8 to 9.0 billion RMB [1] - The H-share valuation is attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 5 times for 2025, and the target price is maintained at 21.8 HKD [1] Group 2: Jiumaojiu (9922.HK) - The company reported revenue and net profit for the second half of 2024 at 3 billion RMB and 16 million RMB, respectively, in line with previous profit warnings [3] - The net profit was 32 million RMB lower than market expectations due to higher-than-expected impairment losses [3] - Restaurant profitability exceeded expectations, with improved gross margins and lower rental expense ratios [3] - The company declared a dividend of 0.02 HKD, with a total payout ratio of approximately 92.5% for 2025 [3] - No specific store opening targets were set, with plans to adjust based on market conditions to ensure satisfactory performance [3] Group 3: Aikang Medical (1789.HK) - The company reported revenue of 689 million RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.8%, and a net profit of 135 million RMB, up 172% [18] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 20%, with gross margins improving due to increased sales of volume-based procurement products [19] - The company aims to capture more market share in top-tier hospitals, with market share in the top 10 hospitals increasing from 8% to 19% [20] - Overseas revenue grew by 21%, with a goal to increase the overseas revenue share from 20% to 30% over the next five years [21] - The second-generation knee joint robotic system is expected to receive regulatory approval in 2025, contributing to revenue growth [22]

Group 1 - China Aluminum reported a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 85.38% year-on-year, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.135 yuan per share [1] - Lihua Technology's net profit for 2024 decreased by 25.41% to 245 million yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares [1][2] - Zhongjing Food achieved a net profit of 175 million yuan in 2024, up 1.81% year-on-year, proposing a cash dividend of 8 yuan per 10 shares [3][4] - Sanwei Chemical's net profit fell by 6.92% to 263 million yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares [5] - Meino Biological's project for corn protein processing has received construction approval, with an investment of approximately 391 million yuan [6][7] Group 2 - Guangdian Electric's net profit surged by 411.28% to 74.73 million yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares [13][14] - Xin'ao Co. reported a net profit of 4.493 billion yuan for 2024, down 36.64%, with a proposed cash dividend of 10.3 yuan per 10 shares [15] - Huaren Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for a raw material drug, enhancing its product line [16] - Huanxin Technology received a project confirmation from BAIC Group for two display screen products, expected to enter mass supply [17] - Haitong Development plans to purchase four bulk carriers for a total of 59.25 million USD to expand its fleet [18] Group 3 - Guochuang High-tech won a bid for an asphalt procurement project worth 128 million yuan [22][23] - Huayi Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received overseas marketing approvals for several products [24] - Haisco's innovative drug HSK41959 has received clinical trial approval [25] - Hetai Machinery's subsidiary obtained a patent for a dust-proof chain technology [28] - Le Xin Medical's fetal heart rate monitor registration renewal application has been accepted [29] Group 4 - Feilong Co. became a designated supplier for an international client's electronic oil pump project, with expected sales of approximately 160 million yuan [29] - Yunnan Copper reported a net profit of 1.265 billion yuan for 2024, down 19.9%, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.4 yuan per 10 shares [42] - China Merchants Bank's net profit increased by 1.22% to 148.39 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares [43] - Shuanghui Development's net profit decreased by 1.26% to 4.989 billion yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares [44]

Group 1 - The copper industry is experiencing a bullish trend, with leading companies driving the market amid adjustments in the broader stock indices [1] - On March 24, 2025, the copper concept surged, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index reaching a peak increase of 2.07%, and major stocks like Northern Copper and Jiangxi Copper seeing gains of 9.75% and over 4% respectively [1] - The strong performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159871) reflects optimistic market expectations, with an intraday increase of 2.34% [1] Group 2 - The strategic importance of copper is increasing, as U.S. policies highlight its role as a critical metal in future economic development [2] - Rising production costs due to U.S. policies are expected to be passed on to downstream consumers, as copper remains irreplaceable in sectors like power grids and electric vehicles [2] - Chinese copper mining companies are expanding globally, with firms like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum entering the top ten copper mining companies worldwide, contributing to national supply security [2] Group 3 - Future copper prices are projected to rise due to tightening supply and improving demand, with SHFE copper prices at 80,610 RMB/ton and LME prices at 9,852 USD/ton as of March 21 [2] - Global copper concentrate production growth is expected to slow down, maintaining supply tightness, while demand from sectors like air conditioning and stable electricity grid needs in China support price increases [2]

黄金：美通胀与经济数据趋弱，降息通道拓宽叠加避险溢价推动金价刷新历史新高。周内美 国 2 月未季调 CPI 年率不及预期录得 2.8%（前值 3.0%，预期值 2.9%），2 月未季调核心 CPI 年率不及预期录得 3.1%（（前值 3.3%，预期值 3.2%），2 月 PPI 年率不及预期录得 3.2% （前值 3.7%，预期值 3.3%），通胀出现明显降温，对应市场对未来美联储降息预期压力减 弱。此外叠加美国就业与经济数据的偏弱势表现，可能引发对于美国经济成色的担忧从而拓 宽降息通道，对美元指数形成较为明显压制，进一步推动金价反弹。周内金价触及最新纪录， 达到每盎司 3004.86 美元，自 2025 年初以来涨幅达 14%，而 2024 年全年涨幅为 27%。未 来黄金作为美元资产直接博弈方的长叙事逻辑仍将为金价提供强支撑。建议关注：紫金矿业、 山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：冶炼端启动减产，关税预期下现货紧缺推升铜价。①宏观：周内美国 2 月未季调 CPI 年率不及预期，通胀出现明显降温，对应市场对未来美联储降息预期压力减 弱，叠加美就业与经济数据偏弱压制美元指数，宏观 ...