1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Despite the impact of RKAB and other news, rapid changes in the macro - environment led to a relatively weak performance under the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. In March, production is scheduled to increase, domestic inventories continue to accumulate, and market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia due to RKAB policy changes and sluggish domestic transactions caused by cost inversion. Nickel iron prices continue to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, indicating weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, and nickel iron prices are rebounding, providing strong cost - line support. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, and demand is weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On March 6, the price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 137,140, up 870 from March 5; the price of LME nickel was 17,450, up 235; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,210, up 95. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 136,850, up 1100, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,801, up 75 [9]. - **Spot**: On March 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,500, up 150; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,950, up 300; the price of 1 imported nickel was 137,000, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 139,650, up 200. Cold - rolled coil 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou remained unchanged at 15,100, and the price in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [9]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 287,550 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1 ton to 341,118 tons [11][12]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 618,600 tons, in Foshan was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons [16]. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 51,953 tons, a decrease of 122 tons [17]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 6, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,086.93 yuan per nickel point, up 1.12, and the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [19]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost of stainless steel was 14,151 yuan, the cost of scrap - steel production was 14,298 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure - nickel production was 18,015 yuan [21]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,457 yuan per ton [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **For Coking Coal**: The main coal - producing areas are resuming production, increasing the market coal supply. Affected by the first - round coke price cut, the market purchasing sentiment is weak, and downstream coke enterprises mainly consume inventory. The short - term demand is hard to recover significantly. The online auctions in some regions have unsold lots, and some coal mines are reducing prices. It is expected that the coking coal price will be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **For Coke**: During the important meeting, most coke enterprises maintain normal production, with sufficient supply. However, the downstream steel mills' purchasing power is average, and the inventory in coke enterprises has accumulated. Due to the decline in steel prices and poor terminal consumption, the steel mills' profits are affected, and the demand for coke is expected to decline. It is expected that the coke price will be weakly stable in the short term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Coking Coal**: On March 6 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at various ports are provided, with some prices having changes. For example, the price of 1/3 coking coal (GI) at Caofeidian Port increased by 15, and the price of high - end (K10) at Caofeidian Port increased by 120 [8]. - **Coke**: On March 6 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke have declined. For example, the price of secondary metallurgical coke (Inner Mongolia) at Rizhao Port decreased by 50, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke (dry - quenched) at Rizhao Port decreased by 55 [9]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons from last week [28]. Other Factors - **Coking Coal**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply increase; bearish factors include slowed procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially over - drawn replenishment demand [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and supply pressure, weak industrial demand but with recovery expectations, and the agricultural demand temporarily at the end of the stage. The urea futures main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors for urea. Bullish factors include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices. Bearish factors include the historical high of daily production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak overall but has recovery expectations. Compound fertilizer operating rate is rising, while melamine operating rate is falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily ended its stage - based demand, and comprehensive inventory has increased. The international price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and international exports has widened. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged). [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is 20, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, the peak of agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1850 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1830 | 16 | Warehouse Receipt | 2860 | 1585 | | Shandong Spot | 1880 | 0 | Basis | 20 | -16 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | -6.2 | | Henan Spot | 1850 | 0 | UR01 | 1819 | 14 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | -7.8 | | FOB China | 3323 | | UR05 | 1830 | 16 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 16 | | | | | UR09 | 1843 | 14 | | | | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the grease market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a generally neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic grease supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Supply - As of January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2] - The port inventory of palm oil on January 9 was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3] - The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on January 9 was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4] - Other supply - related items include soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic grease inventory, but specific data are not provided [8][10][21][23] Demand - Demand - related items include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption, but specific data are not provided [12][14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is approaching [5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Grease prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic grease inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related greases is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global grease fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]

指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年3月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24170，基差-90；中性。 3、库存：3月6日LME锌库存较上日减少25吨至94975吨，3月6日上期所锌库 存仓单较上日增加604吨至76450吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the escalation of the Iran situation, the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the significant increase in crude oil prices, there is strong cost support for polyolefins. With the recovery of downstream demand and neutral inventory, it is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show strong trends today [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, providing strong short - term support for polyolefins. In the supply - demand aspect, the downstream开工率 of agricultural films has significantly increased, the demand for spring plowing has started, packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, and the开工 rate of pipes has slightly rebounded. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7420 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 271, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk continues to be strong. The Iran situation disturbs oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: The bullish factors are cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. The bearish factor is the oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive. The main risk points are large fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, providing strong short - term support for polyolefins. In the supply - demand aspect, the plastic weaving开工率 has slightly increased, enterprise orders have improved, the bopp开工率 has abnormally decreased, and downstream is resistant to high - price raw materials. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7650 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 147, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk continues to be strong. The Iran situation disturbs oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. - **Leverage and Risks**: The bullish factors are cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. The bearish factor is the oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive. The main risk points are large fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [8]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7420 (+100), the 05 contract price is 7691 (+298), the basis is - 271 (-198), the warehouse receipt is 8709 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 59.4, and the PE social inventory is 67.3 [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7650 (+150), the 05 contract price is 7797 (+339), the basis is - 147 (-189), the warehouse receipt is 18384 (-200), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.5, and the PP social inventory is 34.5 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with the production capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 32.9% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a negative growth rate of - 2.6% in 2021 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with the production capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has also fluctuated, with a relatively stable growth from 2019 to 2024 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is mainly in range - bound oscillation. Last week, the stock index showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The outbreak of the US - Iran conflict led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks, and the risk appetite of the stock market declined under pressure, causing the stock index to quickly correct. As the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis is gradually digested by the market, the stock index trend returns to its own fundamentals. With the convening of the Two Sessions, the policy support for aggregate demand and the expectation of supporting technological innovation are relatively clear, and the trend of continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remains unchanged, which constitutes the core logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. However, with the implementation of the policy benefits in the government work report of the Two Sessions, the approaching of the listed company earnings report disclosure season, and the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical risks, the stock index will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term [3][9][41] - For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread. Considering that the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock index still exists, and the weakening of short - term upward momentum increases the difficulty of timing, one can adhere to the bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish idea [4][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, the stock index showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The US - Iran conflict led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks, and the stock index quickly corrected. As the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis is digested, the stock index returns to its fundamentals. The policy support during the Two Sessions and the continuous net inflow of funds are the core for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. In the short term, due to policy implementation, approaching earnings season, and geopolitical uncertainties, the stock index will oscillate in a range [9] 3.1.2 Futures Basis and Monthly Spread of Stock Index Futures - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties has rebounded, indicating a decline in market optimism. The inter - quarterly spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of stock index futures has also rebounded, suggesting that market optimism has weakened and the uncertainty risk of the far - month contracts has increased [19] 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Index - The report provides multiple figures related to the PCR index of different ETF options and stock index options, including the PCR of 50ETF options, 300ETF options, and stock index options of CSI 1000, etc., but does not provide specific analysis of these data [27] 3.2.2 At - the - money Implied Volatility - The report presents the at - the - money implied volatility of various options, such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options, and stock index options, but no specific analysis of these data is given [34] 3.2.3 At - the - money Implied Volatility Cone - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility cone of different options, including 50ETF options, 300ETF options, and stock index options, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [39] 3.3 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints. Short - term stock index is in range - bound oscillation, and for ETF options and stock index options, a bull spread should be maintained [41][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high in the current rebound but followed the decline in the Asia - Pacific market, narrowing losses at the end. The overall market fell slightly. The rise was mainly in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, coal, and public utilities, while media, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the decline. The market was mainly driven by the Middle East situation. Initially, the market priced in a temporary easing of the war, but then the situation became more complex, affecting oil transportation and causing a decline in global risk appetite and pressure on the stock index, especially in growth sectors. At the end of the week, the domestic market rebounded with the external market's temporary recovery and the opening of the Two Sessions [1]. - In the later stage, the Middle East situation remains the core driver of the market. The war may turn into a long - drawn - out one, and oil prices may rebound due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing inflation expectations and resource supply uncertainties, which may cause downward pressure on the market. Domestically, the Two Sessions have set the policy direction for the "15th Five - Year Plan" year. Although the focus is on high - quality development, the attention to stabilizing growth will not decrease. If external uncertainties intensify, the government will release signals to stabilize the market. Overall, the current market may continue to be volatile, with a strengthening slow - bull trend, and the market style may shift to large - cap blue - chip stocks due to risk - aversion sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have generally risen. In terms of industry performance in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, there were both gains and losses. The energy and public utility sectors in the CSI 300 index had significant increases, while the information and material sectors had declines. In the CSI 500 index, the public and energy sectors rose, while the telecommunications and raw material sectors fell. Market trading volume and turnover rate also showed certain changes [6][8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the main contracts of stock index futures, the IM contract had the largest decline, and the IC contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both declined. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross - variety ratio also showed certain trends [8][11]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of February 27, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.26 times, the CSI 300 index was 14.16 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.5 times, the CSI 500 index was 39.31 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 52.66 times [12][14]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The number of new - established equity - focused funds and the margin trading balance in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate price once rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [15][18]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [3]. 4.2 Trend Strategy - It is expected that the core operating range of the main IF2603 contract is between 4530 and 4739 points, the IH2603 contract is between 2915 and 3050 points, the IC2603 contract is between 7990 and 8614 points, and the IM2603 contract is between 7924 and 8540 points [3]. 4.3 Variety - based Strategy - During the correction phase, it is recommended to go long on IF (or IH) and short on IC (or IM). During the rebound phase, the opposite strategy is recommended [3]. 5. Factors to be Concerned - The development of the Middle East situation, the release of domestic economic data, the further implementation of the Two Sessions' policies, and the expected direction of the Fed's policies [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The futures market showed significant growth in January 2026, with agency trading volume reaching 100.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.8% and a month-on-month increase of 10.4% [6] - The net profit of futures companies in January 2026 was 1.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 215.3% and a month-on-month increase of 159.6%, indicating a substantial release of profit elasticity [6] - The industry net profit margin improved significantly from 13.9% in December 2025 to 36.8% in January 2026, driven by increased trading volume and improved fee income [6] - The report suggests focusing on leading and differentiated futures companies, such as Ruida Futures and Nanhua Futures, which are expected to benefit from the rising trading activity and fee income [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The trading activity in the futures market reached historical highs, with a total trading volume of 9.67 billion contracts, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.2% [6] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange contributed over 50% of the trading volume, while the Guangxi Futures Exchange experienced the fastest growth at 332.19% year-on-year [6] Profitability Analysis - The significant profit growth is attributed to the expansion of trading scale and increased income from risk management services [6] - Despite a slight decrease in overall revenue, improved cost control and a higher proportion of high-margin businesses led to a substantial profit margin improvement [6] Future Outlook - The futures industry is in an upward cycle of both volume and profit, but faces structural challenges, including a slight month-on-month decline in trading volume for some exchanges [6] - The report emphasizes the need for futures companies to enhance their competitiveness in compliance, product innovation, and customer service to navigate the dual challenges of fluctuating trading activity and intensified competition [6]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Views - Aluminum: Affected by the Iran and Strait blockade news, overseas supply is tightening. In the short - term, the micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak, but the price may be driven by overseas factors. Alumina spot is stable, and the trading sentiment on the disk has a greater impact [6][7]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the pricing center moves up. In the short term, the AD price may continue to fluctuate strongly under cost support and moderate supply release [127]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to the supply - side contradictions, and the zinc price volatility intensifies. In the long - term, the supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate the price, and the zinc price operation center is expected to move up [185][188]. - Lead: With the addition of new delivery products, the price fluctuates weakly. The lead market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price is expected to remain weak overall [259][265]. - Tin: The short - term tight pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound. The macro wind bias and the news of Myanmar's resumption of production have an impact on the price, but the fundamentals support the price [305][308]. - Platinum: Generally follows the trend of gold and silver, with wide - range fluctuations. Palladium: High - frequency data are all pessimistic. Platinum is expected to perform stronger than palladium, and the palladium price is expected to remain weak [400][401]. Summary by Category Aluminum & Alumina - **Market Performance**: The overseas aluminum price is strong, and LME aluminum has a significant increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to the supply - demand pattern [6][8]. - **Supply**: The supply of overseas electrolytic aluminum is affected by the situation in the Middle East, with actual production cuts and supply disruptions. The domestic alumina supply is relatively loose, and the total inventory continues to accumulate [6][48]. - **Demand**: The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak, and the downstream processing profit is at a low level [7]. - **Inventory**: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased significantly, and the alumina total inventory has also continued to increase [7][48]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the pricing center moves up. The ADC12 - A00 spread fluctuates sharply [123][125]. - **Supply**: The supply of waste aluminum is relatively loose, and the production of recycled aluminum is expected to gradually increase [127]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the actual orders of enterprises are average [127]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has decreased [127]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The zinc price fluctuates sharply. The domestic inventory has increased, and the processing fee is at the bottom [185][188]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc concentrate is marginally loose, but the subsequent supply pressure of refined zinc is still relatively large [188]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the demand for concentrated restocking is expected to be released [188]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of zinc ore and smelter finished products is at a high level, and the inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase [192]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The lead price rebounds slightly and then falls back. The spot is at a flat - water state, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [259][265]. - **Supply**: The production of primary lead increases, and the production of recycled lead is expected to gradually increase [265]. - **Demand**: The demand for lead - acid batteries recovers, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to decrease [265]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lead ingots in five regions has increased, and the inventory growth rate has slowed down [261][265]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin price falls from a high level, mainly due to the impact of the Iran conflict on the macro - risk preference and the expectation of resumption of production [305][308]. - **Supply**: The tight pattern of the supply side has not changed significantly [308]. - **Demand**: The sharp correction of the tin price stimulates the release of demand, and the spot maintains a premium [308]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and futures inventory have decreased [329]. Platinum & Palladium - **Market Performance**: Platinum generally follows the trend of gold and silver, with wide - range fluctuations. Palladium's high - frequency data are all pessimistic [400]. - **Supply**: The mining cost of platinum and palladium in South Africa is expected to increase, but the impact on production is uncertain [401]. - **Demand**: The overall sentiment of the precious metal sector is pessimistic, and the demand is affected by the macro - liquidity [401]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum has decreased slightly, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium has increased slightly [402].