1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market is influenced by the decline of the US soybean market, with the domestic spot market also showing signs of weakness. The rapeseed meal market has limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are falling. In the future, the US soybean may experience a phased decline, while the decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand, and the monthly spread of rapeseed meal may face pressure [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market declined significantly due to favorable weather in the production area and lack of substantial positive factors in demand. The domestic soybean meal market followed the decline of the cost side, and the domestic spot market also weakened. The rapeseed meal market had limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The balance sheet of the new US soybean crop has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policy on soybean crushing. However, there is no substantial positive factor in production and export. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has been slow, and the pressure on soybean prices is increasing. The soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased, and the profit is relatively low. The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the supply pressure of the international soybean market is mainly concentrated in South America [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, with the oil mill operating rate increasing, market supply abundant, and inventory gradually accumulating. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists. Although the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, the demand has also weakened, so the rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The negotiation between China and the United States in London has been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade situation has many uncertain factors, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to decline significantly because of the high demand for the US soybean market [7]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to the decline of the external market. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may have a negative impact on the price, and the slow selling progress in Brazil and lack of demand support may lead to a phased decline of the US soybean price. The decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face pressure, but the room for a sharp decline is limited. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by the soybean meal market, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread [9]. - **Options**: Take a wait - and - see approach [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under domestic inventory accumulation pressure, the basis performance is under pressure. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of de - stocking of soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall. The overall decline space of the futures market is expected to be limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year. Short - term temperature and rainfall show no obvious abnormalities. In May, the import volume of US soybeans was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations for June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [4]. Demand - From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition increases, and the提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventories have increased to a high level; soybean meal is accumulating inventory at an accelerated pace; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5]. Price - related Data - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, etc.), the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal (both spot and futures), and the basis spread between different contracts (such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) [3][4].

Group 1 - The oilseed market experienced fluctuations this week, influenced by policies, weather, and supply-demand factors, with a trend of rising and then falling prices [1] - The U.S. has passed a tax amendment that prohibits the use of non-North American raw materials for biofuel tax credits, which is expected to benefit local raw material consumption [1] - The upcoming U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hearing on bioenergy policies for 2026-2027 will significantly impact the oilseed market [1] Group 2 - The protein meal market is facing neutral pressure from old soybean inventories, while new crop acreage is shrinking, raising concerns about dry weather [1] - Domestic protein meal prices are under pressure, with strategies suggesting potential long positions in soybean meal [1] - The egg futures market showed a slight increase of 1.1% for the main contract, but demand is weakening, leading to a price correction [1] Group 3 - U.S. corn prices are under pressure due to increased acreage and high yield expectations, with a 7% decrease in corn inventories compared to last year [1] - Domestic corn prices are also declining, with a weak futures market and strong spot prices [1] - The pig market saw an increase in prices, with the average price reaching 15.5 yuan/kg, up 0.84 yuan/kg from the previous week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of palm oil and soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are declining, with expectations that the MPOB report may boost palm oil futures' resilience against further declines [1] - Institutions anticipate that the MPOB report will be bullish, which could positively influence market sentiment [1] - The USDA report is also mentioned, suggesting that it may have implications for market dynamics, although specific details are not provided [1]

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil has no obvious fundamental contradictions and is greatly affected by international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil lacks driving factors due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [2][4]. - Bean meal may fluctuate as overnight US soybeans were closed and lacked guidance [2][9]. - Bean one's spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2][9]. - Corn will run in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar will trade in a narrow range [2][18]. - Cotton requires attention to US tariff policies and their impacts [2][22]. - For eggs, it is difficult to increase culling, and attention should be paid to the anticipation of early trading [2][28]. - The gaming sentiment for live pigs has increased [2][30]. - Peanuts have support at the lower level [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,472 yuan/ton (down 0.07%) during the day and 8,482 yuan/ton (up 0.12%) at night; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,944 yuan/ton (down 0.63%) during the day and 7,916 yuan/ton (down 0.35%) at night [4]. - **Industry News**: MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 decreased by 4.69%; UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease by June 30. Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected output, and 2025/26 sales reached 16.4%. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, slightly less than last year [5][7]. Bean Meal and Bean One - **Futures Data**: DCE bean one 2509 closed at 4111 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) during the day and 4103 yuan/ton (down 0.73%) at night; DCE bean meal 2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton (down 0.20%) during the day and 2961 yuan/ton (down 0.03%) at night [9]. - **Industry News**: The US market was closed on Friday due to a public holiday, with no CBOT agricultural product daily reviews [9][11]. Corn - **Futures Data**: C2509 closed at 2,353 yuan/ton (down 0.47%) during the day and 2,346 yuan/ton (down 0.30%) at night; C2511 closed at 2,301 yuan/ton (down 0.26%) during the day and 2,300 yuan/ton (down 0.04%) at night [12]. - **Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained flat, while North China corn prices mostly declined. Wheat's average addition ratio in feed could reach 20% - 30% [13]. Sugar - **Futures Data**: The original sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6070 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5769 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. CAOC predicted domestic sugar production and consumption for 24/25 and 25/26. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 tons in 24/25 [18][19]. Cotton - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,780 yuan/ton (down 0.04%) during the day and 13850 yuan/ton (up 0.51%) at night; CY2509 closed at 20,000 yuan/ton (down 0.17%) during the day and 20070 yuan/ton (up 0.35%) at night [22]. - **Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the downstream purchasing intention was weak. The cotton yarn market demand remained low, and the fabric mill inventory pressure was large. The market focused on US tariff policies [23]. Eggs - **Futures Data**: Egg 2508 closed at 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.67%); egg 2510 closed at 3,419 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.41%) [28]. - **Industry News**: No significant industry - specific news was provided other than the futures data and price trends. Live Pigs - **Futures Data**: The Henan spot price was 15180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 17440 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts showed various changes [32]. - **Market Logic**: The futures market has entered the expectation - trading stage. The expected state purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, but the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing the gaming. Attention should be paid to the spot performance in the future [34]. Peanuts - **Futures Data**: PK510 closed at 8,188 yuan/ton (down 0.90%); PK511 closed at 7,926 yuan/ton (down 0.85%) [36]. - **Industry News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in various regions were basically stable, with some areas having slightly improved sales [37].

Group 1 - U.S. wheat futures have fallen to a one-week low, indicating potential market volatility [1] - The zero export tax on Russian wheat raises questions about market supply and competition [1] - U.S. corn and soybean prices have also declined, suggesting a broader trend in agricultural commodities [1] Group 2 - The impact of the Independence Day holiday on the U.S. agricultural market remains to be seen [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, along with important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and international and domestic news. It also presents data on capital flows and currency exchange rates, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD's September palm oil contract was 4078.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.74% and an overnight decrease of 0.37% [1]. - Brent's September contract on ICE closed at 68.85, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 0.20% overnight [1]. - NYMEX's August crude oil contract closed at 67.18, down 0.52% from the previous day and up 0.36% overnight [1]. - CBOT's November soybean contract closed at 1048.25, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean meal contract closed at 292.40, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.51% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean oil contract closed at 54.54, down 0.96% from the previous day and down 0.33% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 97.08, up 0.34%. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1523, down 0.03%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2219, up 0.61%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16218, up 0.42%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.4176, down 0.57%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1231.000, up 0.20%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2720, down 0.03% [1]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE's September 2025 palm oil contract, the spot price in North China was 8690, with a basis of 220 and a daily basis change of - 30; in East China, the spot price was 8570, with a basis of 100 and a daily basis change of - 100; in South China, the spot price was 8490, with a basis of 20 and a daily basis change of 0 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean oil contract, the spot price in Shandong was 8150, with a basis of 146 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 8210, with a basis of 206 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Guangdong, the spot price was 8230, with a basis of 226 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Tianjin, the spot price was 8140, with a basis of 136 and a daily basis change of - 48 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean meal contract, the spot price in Shandong was 2830, with a basis of - 129 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 2810, with a basis of - 149 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Guangdong, the spot price was 2820, with a basis of - 139 and a daily basis change of 3; in Tianjin, the spot price was 2920, with a basis of - 39 and a daily basis change of - 7 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans was 469 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 230 cents per bushel. The CNF quote for Argentine soybeans was 458 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 200 cents per bushel [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In the US soybean - producing states from July 8th to July 12th, temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be above normal [4]. - In the US Midwest, there will be local to scattered showers early next week, with temperatures near to above normal. The western region will have local to sporadic showers from Friday to Sunday, with temperatures above normal on Friday - Saturday and near to above normal on Sunday. The eastern region will be mainly dry on Friday, with local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Sunday and temperatures above normal from Friday to Sunday. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be local to scattered showers from Monday to Thursday next week, and it will be dry on Friday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Monday to Friday next week [6]. International Supply - Demand - The expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous period. Production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease from May. Exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase from May [1][8]. - Indonesia will revoke the license of a palm oil plantation operating illegally in a national park [9]. - As of the week ending July 1st, about 8% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought, down from 12% the previous week and 9% last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean export sales increased by 701,400 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 462,400 tons, up 15% from the previous week and 62% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean export sales increased by 239,000 tons. US soybean exports were 251,600 tons, down 5% from the previous week and 27% from the four - week average [10]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean meal export sales increased by 703,600 tons, higher than expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 306,200 tons, up 226% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 397,400 tons. US soybean meal exports were 238,300 tons, down 15% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average [11]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, up 193% from the previous week and 156% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 0 tons. US soybean oil exports were 5,900 tons, up 2% from the previous week and down 55% from the four - week average [12]. - From June 29th to July 5th, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 3.7051 million tons, up from 2.6042 million tons last week; soybean meal exports are expected to be 623,800 tons, up from 514,900 tons last week; and corn exports are expected to be 347,200 tons, up from 200,400 tons last week [12]. - As of the week ending June 29th, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to June 29th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase from the same period last year. As of June 29th, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [13]. - Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, a 10 - million - ton increase from the previous year [13]. - On July 3rd, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 9,299 tons, a decrease of 8,834 tons (49%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 288,800 tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.48%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous day [15]. - On July 3rd, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.17, a 0.21 - point decrease from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.13, a 0.24 - point decrease from the previous day. The average pork price in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 20.29 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from the previous day; beef was 63.67 yuan/kg, unchanged; mutton was 59.20 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease; eggs were 7.07 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease; and white - striped chickens were 17.18 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase [15]. International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 33%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3% [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 28th was 233,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [18]. - The US's seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 [18]. - The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% [18]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 [18]. - The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 52.9, slightly lower than the expected 53.1 [18]. - The US factory orders in May increased by 8.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [18]. - The US trade deficit in May was 71.5 billion dollars, slightly higher than the expected 71 billion dollars [18]. - The US has lifted export restrictions on three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [18]. - Trump's tax - cut bill passed the House of Representatives. The bill will increase the US debt by 3.4 trillion dollars and is expected to be signed by Trump on July 4th [19]. - The final value of the eurozone's services PMI in June was 50.5, higher than the expected 50 [20]. Domestic News - On July 3rd, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1523, a 23 - point decrease (RMB appreciation) [21]. - On July 3rd, the People's Bank of China conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan on the day [21]. - China's Caixin Services PMI in June was 50.6, lower than the expected 50.9 [21]. - From January to May 2025, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 3.25436 trillion yuan, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, a 15.1% increase, and imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, a 2.7% increase. The service trade deficit was 447.62 billion yuan, a 135.22 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous year [21]. 05 Capital Flows On July 3rd, 2025, the futures market saw a net capital inflow of 9.344 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 7.67 billion yuan (including a 187 - million - yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, a 1.053 - billion - yuan inflow in chemical futures, a 1.376 - billion - yuan inflow in black - series futures, and a 5.053 - billion - yuan inflow in metal futures). Stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 1.674 billion yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

油料日报 | 2025-07-04 市场需求不佳，花生价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4141.00元/吨，较前日变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+159，较前日变化+30，幅度32.14%。 昨日国内花生价格震荡运行。截止至 2025年6月26日，全国通货米均价为9000元/吨，较上周价格下跌 0.88%。市 场延续供需双弱的僵持局面，价格在狭窄区间内弱势平稳运行，整体交易氛围清淡，各方均保持谨慎态度；油厂 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘上涨，其中基准期约收高2%，因为技术买盘和逢低 买盘活跃，芝加哥豆油飙升，市场传闻美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在访问衣阿华州时可能带来与中国贸易谈判取得进 展的消息。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨13.75美分到25.75美分不等，其中7月期约上涨25.75美分，报收1050.50美分/ 蒲;8月期约上涨23.75美分，报收1053.50美分/蒲;11月期约上涨20.75美分，报收1048美分/蒲。7月3日，黑龙江哈尔 滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 利空情绪逐渐消化，原糖期价强势反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13785元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15171元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，现货基差CF09+1386，较前一日变动+55；3128B棉全国均价15203元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨，现货基差CF09+1418，较前一日变动+60。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），截至6月26日一周，美国本年度陆地棉净签约5352吨，装运5.8万吨。其 中至中国净签约-91吨，装运1066吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。国际方面，USDA公布美棉新年度实播面积在1012.0万英亩，高于市场预期。目前美棉种 植基本结束，天气表现总体尚可，干旱区域面积占比持续减少，最新一周优良率也明显回升，供应端利好或难显 现，后续仍需重点关注各主产国天气及新棉生长状况。国内方面，由于前期棉花加速去库，商业库存降至历史同 期低位，本年度后期供需仍有趋紧预期，对棉价形成上涨驱动。叠加近期新疆局部地区气温偏高，个别棉田受阶 段高温 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 供应压力仍存，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2958元/吨，较前日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.48%；菜粕2509合约2601元/吨，较前 日变动+23元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2920元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-38， 较前日变动-4；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-148，较前日变动-4；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2820元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-138，较前日变动+6。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家能源政策委员会计划在今年8月至2026年2月期间，将生物柴油强制掺混比例从目前的14% 提高到15%。从2026年3月起，这一比例甚至可能进一步提高到16%。6月上旬，加拿大油菜播种结束，加拿大统计 局预期播种面积2146万英亩，同比下降2.5%。 市场分析 整体来看，国内方面，当下仍处于巴西大豆的集中到港时期，近月到港量较 ...