1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - The cotton market is currently experiencing a rebound in market sentiment. However, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to remain in a state of loose supply. In the short - term, cotton prices have bottom support, but in the long - term, there is limited upward space [2][3]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the expected recovery of global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and favorable weather conditions in major producing regions. At the same time, the rebound in import demand limits the overall decline of sugar prices. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [4][6]. - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,052 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. - US cotton growth: As of August 10, the budding rate, boll - setting rate, and flocculation rate of US cotton were all behind the same period last year and the five - year average [1]. Market Analysis - International: Affected by the "reciprocal tariff" and weak weekly signing of US cotton, the price of ICE US cotton moved down last week. The 25/26 global cotton market may be in a loose supply pattern, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. - Domestic: In July, the commercial cotton inventory decreased rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to remain low. The cotton price has short - term bottom support. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the new cotton production increase expectation restricts the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral attitude. Cotton prices have strong support below, but the long - term upward space is limited [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.63%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,815 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Price index: The FAO sugar price index in July averaged 103.3 points, down 0.2 points (0.2%) from June, falling for the fifth consecutive month [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The latest bi - weekly data from Brazil is bearish. Although some institutions have lowered Brazil's production estimate, the raw sugar futures are bottom - oscillating. - Zhengzhou sugar: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and a large amount of imported sugar has arrived at ports. The domestic spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the short - term upward pressure on Zhengzhou sugar is large [5][6]. Strategy - Take a neutral attitude. Short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Market price trends: Different pulp varieties in the imported wood pulp spot market showed differentiated price trends yesterday [6][7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year. Although the import volume is expected to decline in the second half of the year, the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Adopt a neutral attitude. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that soybean futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.16% to 4120.00 yuan/ton as of August 13 [1] - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August 2025 reached 2.7745 million tons, a significant decrease from 8.0415 million tons in the same period last year, although the daily average shipment increased by 26.51% compared to last year [2] - The European Union's soybean import volume for the 2025/26 season is reported at 1.3 million tons, down from 1.47 million tons last year, while the USDA's August supply and demand report indicates a reduction in expected soybean planting and harvesting areas in the U.S. for the 2025/26 season [3] Group 2 - Industry analysis from Dayue Futures suggests that while weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions may support a bottom in soybean prices, the anticipated high yield from South American soybeans and favorable planting conditions in the U.S. may limit price rebounds [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the price gap between soybean contracts has reached a new low, indicating that soybean prices are entering an undervalued region, while also highlighting the importance of weather conditions and policy impacts on the market [4] - The report emphasizes the critical growth stage for soybeans in August, with potential weather risks due to high temperatures and low rainfall in certain U.S. regions, which could affect yield [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil continues to break through and rise. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. Hold long positions and consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The procurement and arrival of domestic rapeseed have decreased, and the inventory has declined from the high point but is still at a relatively high level. The preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the production in early August was poor. The increase in Indonesian export taxes in August may increase Malaysia's export share. Hold long positions [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense, and there is a concern about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. Hold long positions for the 01 contract of soybean meal, and the 09 contract of bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The potential reduction in rapeseed imports and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, and long positions can be held [3][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the South American harvest and the expected increase in US planting area. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and the news of tightening imports. Suggest holding short positions cautiously [6]. - **Bean No. 1**: New soybeans in Hubei and other places are gradually on the market, and the market auction is not good. Try short positions lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory in the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The increase in planting area and the potential impact of drought in some areas. Consider reducing short positions for the 10 contract and shorting on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts [7]. - **Pigs**: The feed price rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. Hold long positions [8]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at the end of the seasonal off - season, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 contract at low positions [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be tried lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and wait and see; Peanuts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and reduce short positions; Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions; Rapeseed oil is expected to rise, and hold long positions; Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal is expected to rise, and try long positions lightly; Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and go long at low positions [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate and sort out, and hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Aquaculture**: Pigs are expected to rebound, and hold long positions; Eggs are expected to find the bottom, and wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, conduct positive spread operations; for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low positions [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some varieties, conduct short - biased or long - biased operations, and for others, wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy Provide the spot price, price change, and basis and its change of various varieties [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, including arrival premium, futures price, CNF price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the inventory, startup rate, etc. of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, etc. [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the consumption, inventory, startup rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Aquaculture - Provide the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including price, inventory, production rate, etc. [20][21][22][23][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Aquaculture End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Provide charts of the closing price of the main contracts, spot price, etc. of pigs and eggs [26][28][29][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Provide charts of production, inventory, profit, etc. of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [36][46][50] - **Feed End**: Provide charts of inventory, consumption, profit, etc. of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [54][56][58][65] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options of various varieties [71][73] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties [75][77]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw most prices rise at the beginning of trading on August 13, with oilseed and oil futures leading the gains [1] - As of 9:18 AM, the main contracts for rapeseed and rapeseed meal futures increased by over 5%, while rapeseed oil futures rose by over 4%, and soybean meal futures increased by over 3% [1] - The initial ruling by the Ministry of Commerce on August 12 found that Canadian rapeseed was being dumped, requiring domestic importers to provide corresponding guarantees when importing Canadian rapeseed [3] Group 2 - Analysts expect that domestic rapeseed oil prices will continue to rise in August due to increased production costs and anticipated supply shortages, with spot prices expected to exceed 10,200 yuan per ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][5] - Soybean oil: The reduction in the US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2][5] - Soybean meal: The USDA report is bullish, and the Dalian soybean meal futures follow the rise of US soybeans [2][12] - Soybean: The atmosphere in the soybean market is bullish, and the futures price may rebound [2][12] - Corn: It is expected to move in a range [2][17] - Sugar: Both domestic and international markets are showing upward momentum [2][20] - Cotton: News related to import quotas boosts cotton prices [2][25] - Eggs: There is a sentiment of price rebound in the spot market [2][30] - Hogs: Near - term contracts have position limits, and the industrial sector has a strong willingness to deliver [2][32] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,362 yuan/ton with a 1.56% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,414 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session closing price was 8,488 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,516 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. Rapeseed oil had a significant increase, with the daily - session closing price at 9,802 yuan/ton (+2.23%) and the night - session closing price at 10,079 yuan/ton (+2.83%) [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate. ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed sharply lower, with the benchmark contract down 4.5%. The US will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the US 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 4.292 billion bushels, lower than the market expectation of 4.365 billion bushels. Indian 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar 60% year - on - year, while palm oil imports may reach a five - year low. Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to remain high [7][9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4,034 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.71%) and 4,035 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.05%). DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,091 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 3,092 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.59%) [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day due to lower - than - expected production and tight supply. The USDA lowered the 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [12][14] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,260 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.04%) and 2,273 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.58%). The closing price of C2511 was 2,198 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.14%) and 2,207 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.41%) [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn collection port price was 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton, and the container collection price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable. Corn prices in Northeast China were weak, while those in North China showed mixed trends [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.95 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,608 yuan/ton [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the first half of July. Indian monsoon precipitation decreased temporarily. Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production and consumption for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO expected a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [20][21][22] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,980 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 14,090 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.79%). ICE cotton futures rose significantly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, which lowered the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production [25][27] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading showed little change, with a slight improvement in some areas. The cotton yarn market improved slightly due to downstream restocking, but orders were still limited [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,311 yuan/500 kilograms (-0.15%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,559 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.11%) [30] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,290 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2509 was 13,965 yuan/ton (-5), and the closing price of hog 2511 was 14,230 yuan/ton (+90) [32] - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms in August increased, while individual farmers had passive inventory. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The 9 - month contract entered the pre - delivery month, and the industrial delivery willingness increased [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of important spot peanuts in Liaoning, Henan, and other places were stable. The closing price of PK510 was 8,080 yuan/ton (+0.05%), and the closing price of PK511 was 7,944 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [36] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the supply of peanuts was affected by rain, and the price was stable. In Jiangxi, the price was slightly stronger, while in other regions, the price was generally stable [36][37]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间8月12日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货涨2.08%报1032.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌3.25%报394.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌1.99%报 504.75美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 0.72%, closing at 28.7777 points, with significant fluctuations following the USDA's monthly report on agricultural stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg Grain Index was primarily in a downtrend, fluctuating around 28.70 points before dropping to a low of 28.4675 points after the USDA report [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 3.25%, settling at 3.9450 USD per bushel, with notable declines occurring post-USDA report [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.99%, closing at 5.0475 USD per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 2.18%, ending at 10.3225 USD per bushel, after initially dropping to a low of 9.94 USD just before the USDA report [1] - Soybean meal futures rose by 0.83%, while soybean oil futures saw a slight increase of 0.15%, indicating a V-shaped recovery throughout the day [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: Corn prices showed a weakening trend on Monday. Futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices declined. Mid - term operations should maintain a bearish outlook, focusing on the impact of new grain costs on forward prices [1] - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Monday due to improved export prospects and hot weather in the production areas. Domestic bean meal and rapeseed meal prices fell, and the supply concerns eased. The strategy for bean meal is short - term trading [1] - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday due to improved export expectations and a positive MPOB report. Domestic palm oil led the increase among the three major oils, reaching a three - year high. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1] - Eggs: The main egg contract continued to decline on Monday. Although spot prices rose slightly, the short - term fundamentals remained weak. However, there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, but the high point is likely to be lower than last year [1][2] - Pigs: The main pig futures contract rebounded in the morning and then declined on Monday. The supply side exerts pressure on pig prices, while policies provide support. The market is expected to remain volatile [2] Group 3: Market Information - Indonesia: The Indonesian trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local sales to lower prices and maintain the DMO level at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January [3] - Soybean Pressing: The domestic soybean pressing volume decreased slightly last week to 2.18 million tons and is expected to rebound to 2.3 million tons this week [3] - Malaysian Palm Oil: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month, inventory increased by 4.02% month - on - month (lower than Reuters' expectation), imports decreased by 12.82% month - on - month, and exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month [3] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][7][8][11] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][17][23][25] Group 5: Research Team - Wang Na: Director of the Agricultural Product Research Department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams at DCE. She has won many awards and has rich media experience [27] - Hou Xueling: Soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many awards [27] - Kong Hailan: Researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with experience as a guest analyst on financial channels and participation in many research achievements [27]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-12 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。国际方面，受到美国"对等关税"正式落地以及美棉周度签约表现疲弱的影响，上周ICE美 棉价格重心下移。目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，25/26年度全球棉市或仍将处于供应偏松格局。美棉实 播面积高于预期，旱情较此前明显改善，新年度出口签约仍疲软，预计美棉平衡表也难有改善，国际棉价缺乏明 显驱动，暂难突破震荡区间，预计跟随宏观市场情绪波动为主。国内方面，7月棉花商业库存去库仍较快，三季度 进口量预计维持低位，而滑准税配额迟迟不发，棉价短期仍存底部支撑。当前全国新棉长势良好，增产预期较强， 终端需求持续低迷，纺织企业开机率略有下滑，对棉花原料谨慎补库，限制棉价上涨空间，关注旺季订单情况。 中长期看，四季度随着新棉集中上市，将对棉价形成新的压制。而下半年需求前景仍面临较大不确定性，宏观动 荡环境下出口动能或有所减弱。 策略 中性。库存低位叠加纺织旺季即将到来，棉价下方支撑较强。不过考虑到新年度全球棉市供应充足，中长期产业 端尚不具备持续上涨驱动，相关部门也有望在新棉上市前出台相关调控政策，郑棉上方空间亦受到限制。 风险 上下两难，棉价延续震荡 棉花观点 ...